MIN 5, CHW 1: Bullpen Shines as Twins Beat Giolito

[John Kelsey]

After a frustrating first two games in Chicago, the Twins managed to take a victory thanks to bombas and the bullpen. Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sanó all hit home runs while the bullpen combined to throw 5 1/3 perfect innings after Jake Odorizzi’s early exit.Box Score

Odorizzi: 3.2 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K

Home Runs: Rosario (11), Buxton (10), Sanó (12)

Top 3 WPA: Stashak .159, Buxton .125, Odorizzi .120

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs):

Download attachment: Winchart.png

 

Roster Shuffling

Before the game, the Twins optioned Randy Dobnak and Travis Blankenhorn in order to activate Jake Odorizzi and Alex Avila. The two newly-activated Twins served as the pitching battery in a game that pitted Odorizzi vs. Lucas Giolito. On top of being an enticing pitching matchup, “Odorizzi vs. Giolito” sounds like it could have been a scene in the Five Families War portion of “The Godfather'', but I digress. An untimely finger injury ultimately forced Odorizzi out of the game after allowing just one run in 3 2/3 innings.

 

Twins Get to Giolito Again

Coming into the game, the Twins had hit Lucas Giolito better than any other team, having scored 11 runs in just 8 2/3 innings against the Chicago ace, while other teams had combined for 15 runs in 51 2/3 innings. Giolio pitched better this evening than in his previous two outings against The Twins, but Minnesota continued to make solid contact when it counted, mashing two home runs against the big righty. Of the seven home runs Giolito has allowed this year, five have been hit by the Twins. Byron Buxton, whose homer gave the Twins a 3-0 lead has now slugged five home runs in his last eight games.

 

 

Bullpen Perfection

The Twins got much-needed, flawless outings from three members of their bullpen following the abbreviated start from Odorizzi. Cody Stashak and Tyler Duffey turned in shutout, multi-inning performances, combining for 4 1/3 innings pitched with four strikeouts and no baserunners allowed. Trevor May was handed the ninth inning and in an effort to one-up his teammates, struck out the side to close out the win.

 

Have a Game, Ump

I don’t think I’ve ever written this when recapping a baseball game before, but I have to give kudos to home plate umpire Nic Lentz who delivered one of the best umpired games I can remember watching. It may have only stood out because it was following his colleague Will Little’s horror show from the night before, but better late than never. Tip of the cap to you, Mr. Lentz.

 

Little last night:

Lentz tonight:

Download attachment: Ump0916.png

 

Division Race Tightens

With the victory, the Twins trimmed Chicago’s division lead to two games and improved their chances of winning the division to 33%, according to FiveThirtyEight. With Kenta Maeda taking the ball tomorrow afternoon, a series split is looking feasible and a week that began with some ominous signs is looking like it could turn around in a hurry.

 

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

Download attachment: Bullpen.png

 

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[JadenPoint]

Prob the best BP performance I've seen this season. It's very concerning that they cannot score without home runs.

[GNess]

Twins remain in chase for division. 9 games remain - in terms of division huge game tomorrow v Sox. If get a w in that one it will still likely require 6-7 wins of. last eight to win it.

 

Winning the division is an accomplishment on it's own, but it also sets up a likely more favorable wildcard round opponent.

[Monticore]

Big win. Why can't the bullpen deliver like this more often? Buxton's a force in the lineup now.

[adjacent]

 

Big win. Why can't the bullpen deliver like this more often? Buxton's a force in the lineup now.

Because being perfect is very difficult

[twinbythebay]

 

Big win. Why can't the bullpen deliver like this more often? Buxton's a force in the lineup now.

I mean, they largely have delivered this season, haven't they? I think they're top 5 in the AL in innings pitched, ERA, and WAR, and that's not even counting the openers in the many bullpen games, which mostly went well...

[Sielk]

Great win tonight.

 

You know what the best thing is? Tomorrow's starter for the Sox is not Keuchel. Instead the Twins get to play against Reynaldo Lopez again.

[twinbythebay]

Odorizzi can't catch a break this season. He was looking pretty damn good tonight! If he can make another effective start or two this season and stay healthy, I think he should make the postseason roster as a long reliever, for whatever that's worth. I also think the Twins should try to bring him back next season on a reasonable contract, since I doubt he's going to command much on the open market at this point.

[railmarshalljon]

Wow, Buxton has looked incredible at the plate recently. Really, really hoping this is the start of his superstardom. 

 

Maeda pitching against Lopez on paper looks like an easy W. Would certainly feel good to split the series.

[waltomeal]

Let's hear it for professional umpires.  Hip, Hip...

[jimbo92107]

Odo's fingernail looked completely detached, almost like he'd tried to superglue it down to see if it would last. I don't expect to see him again anytime soon.

 

Buxton's home run swing had such a sweet wrist flip, it looked effortless.

 

Duffey's fastball seems to be coming around again. Throw that heater, Bender!

 

May's heater looks a lot like a good closer's. Switch Rodgers back to setup for a while.

 

Twins are gonna need Duran very soon. Odo's out, and Dobbs is flailing.

[MNT1996]

Kepler needs to be brought down in the lineup. A leadoff hitting shouldn't be batting .210 with a .700 OPS

[umterp23]

Plate discipline is still lacking about this offense in general.  Small ball a bad defensive team and see what happens.  Pride gets in the way of some these guys looking to hit bombs what appears to be all the time.  Times last night we could have moved a runner over and either popped up or struck out.  No inclination to bunt a guy over.  Call me old or old school.  Kepler batting leadoff shouldn't be the spot for him.  Spread speed and power throughout the lineup.

[bighat]

Housekeeping: "Home Runs: Rosario (11), Buxton (10)" - you missed Sano's there.

 

For those who keep arguing AGAINST small-ball, the Twins hit 3 HR last night....and scored just 5 runs. That's not unusual for this team. Hitting a few singles and moving runners over, especially when the opposing pitcher is in a good groove would be helpful IMO. Twins could have won the first two games also had they done that.

 

Nice win last night, much needed. Is Buxton taking the reins and becoming the team leader right now?

[AceWrigley]

Trevor May - nice 9th inning 1-2-3, K-K-K. That last pitch to Abreu was at 99 mph. He was throwin' gas. I think I roll with May as the closer to finish the year. Clippard and Duffy are just too good in the middle of the game. Serge is good at dishin' slop, but May has been groomin' for the closer roll for a few years now. Let him loose.

[woolywoolhouse]

 

Let's hear it for professional umpires.  Hip, Hip...

 

Jorge?

[rdehring]

Totally agree, John, that the home plate ump was as good as I have seen this year. Maybe it was more noticeable because so many have been very, very bad.

 

Ditto on Odorizzi having miserable luck within a crazy season. He is a good pitcher and would be very helpful in that five game series should the Twins be so fortunate to get there. His problems this year may be setting him up for a one year contract with incentives back with the Twins in 2021.

 

Said to the tv when Eddie came up to bat, the Twins need you to get on one of your streaks these last ten games and the first round of the playoffs. You know, one of those streaks where he carries the team. A couple pitches later he hit it out and later worked a walk to be on base for Buxton's dinger. If they can get the Luis we know back and just one of the big early bats heat up along with Eddie and Buck, this team can be dangerous.

 

Also thought May was perfect again last night. If he can just eliminate half of his off nights, he could be a huge part of any bullpen, this year and next.

[Trov]

First, I feel real bad for Odo this year.  He was hoping to build off of what he did last year and show he is worth a 3-5 year deal.  Instead, he has not pitched a single game to 5 innings.  He has had different stints on DL.  He was gutting out last night but when you are throwing a biohazard up there hard to stay in the game.  

 

For the people upset the Twins are not hitting singles and advancing runners.  I am pretty sure the opposing pitchers are trying to stop those exact things from happening as well.  Hitting MLB pitching is one of the hardest things to do in sports, when average player is only successful between 25% to 28% of the time.  Then if you are just hitting singles the  players hear, "we need more extra base hits, singles won't cut it."  So they then change approach to increase extra base hits, knowing that lower overall average but higher slugging produces more runs, which is what you need to win.  Now they do that and people are upset that they are not hitting more singles but trying to hit extra base hits.  Guess unless they are the best hitters in the game that can make that switch easy no one will be happy.

 

Think about it.  If a hitter is told to change approach to hit a certain way, how can you expect the player to just say hey this may be a good spot to change everything I have been working on to advance this runner to third base, in hopes that the next guy will drive him in.  Screw trying to get a double or a HR like I have been training to do.  Lets hit a weak grounder to right side, possibly something I have never tried to do in years, or ever, and see how that turns out.  Basically, if you are being asked to do something you never practice it is unlikely you will be successful in doing it.  

 

The team is built the way it is, they will not change that now.  They are not a small ball team that will look to steal bases, bunt runners over, and hit sac flies.  They want to hit extra base hits.  Yes, it can be frustrating when they fail to score runs when they are walking a ton like the other night, but it is who they are.

[mnfireman]

The only time I think they should have used small ball last night was when Adrianza hit into a DP. I felt Baldelli should have had him bunting in that situation, even though it would have been lefty-lefty with Avila against Detwiler.

[mikelink45]

the top of the lineup has to change.  Is Baldelli really so stubborn that Kepler will be lead off no matter what he hits?  Put Buxton up there.   Josh Donaldson in not worthy of the second place in the lineup either.  A few bombs does not make him the hitter we want him to be.  Buxton, Polanco, Cruz, Rosario, Donaldson, Sano, Jeffers, Blankenhorn ((I know he is gone, but he should be at 2B), Kepler in the former Buxton position. 

[Vanimal46]

The only way this season could have gone worse for Odorizzi is needing Tommy John... I feel bad for his rotten injury luck this year. 

[Shaitan]

Is it weird that I want Buxton on the base paths instead of hitting HRs?

 

Ha, I'll take whatever gets the win.

[Aggies7]

It's becoming very obvious that the twins will need to win the division in order to avoid playing the Yankees yet again. NY is 3 back of Tampa with 11 to play, none against the rays. The odds of them winning the east are minimal. Cleveland is tanking and will not finish ahead of the twins. The jays could possibly leapfrog the yankees as they still face them 5 times, but have just been outscored 33-8 in the last two days in NY. Today's game is a must win if we have any designs on winning the central and thus avoiding another humiliation at the hands of the hated yankees.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Have a Game, Ump

I don’t think I’ve ever written this when recapping a baseball game before, but I have to give kudos to home plate umpire Nic Lentz who delivered one of the best umpired games I can remember watching. It may have only stood out because it was following his colleague Will Little’s horror show from the night before, but better late than never. Tip of the cap to you, Mr. Lentz.

 

Below is a comparison of umpire performance.

 

On the left, Tuesday night's performance, described as a "horrow show" by the author. On the right, Wednesday night's performance, "one of the best umpired games I can remember watching."

 

 

 

 

I suspect umpire praise/tolerance/criticism is more strongly correlated with one's favored team performance than with actual umpire performance (at least as represented by these charts).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Is it weird that I want Buxton on the base paths instead of hitting HRs?

Inside the park HRs seem like a good compromise.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Why can't the bullpen deliver like this more often?

It can't be that hard to throw 5.1 perfect innings, right?

[insagt1]

Buxton needs to stay healthy if the Twins are to finally win a playoff series. Its becoming clear that he is the team MVP. While Cruz's exploits can't be ignored, Buxton can do it all and is a wonder to watch. But he can't be injured so much. Let's hope for the best.

Looking at the BA's of last nights game....wow, were they ever ugly. Hard to believe with so many hitting so little that they are 11 games over .500. Twins have scored only 1 run in this series with a base hit. Lots of k;s and DP's have killed rallies. Still they are mostly successful, so I guess we should enjoy the ride. The caution though is a 3 game series is very dangerous and you can't take even an inning off.

 

I agree with those who say Kepler shouldn't be leading off. But who should be? donaldson has a poor BA, but he also gets on base a lot. And he has a lot of catching up to do since he hasn't played much,. He'll be fine. Twins have to win today. Not just to get closer to 1st but to be able to beat this opponent. I think they can do it.

[DocBauer]

Oddorizi looked really good to me. Guy can't catch a break this year. I hope he's ready to go in 5 days. He can still make a difference before this season is done.

 

THAT was the May we've seen before and need to see more of.

[John Kelsey]

 

Below is a comparison of umpire performance.

 

On the left, Tuesday night's performance, described as a "horrow show" by the author. On the right, Wednesday night's performance, "one of the best umpired games I can remember watching."

 

 

 

 

I suspect umpire praise/tolerance/criticism is more strongly correlated with one's favored team performance than with actual umpire performance (at least as represented by these charts).

 

Fair enough, I'll readily admit that I was watching the Twins ABs closer and only checked the charts against Twins batters in comparison to last night. I guess we'll call it even. 

[USAFChief]

the top of the lineup has to change. Is Baldelli really so stubborn that Kepler will be lead off no matter what he hits? Put Buxton up there. Josh Donaldson in not worthy of the second place in the lineup either. A few bombs does not make him the hitter we want him to be. Buxton, Polanco, Cruz, Rosario, Donaldson, Sano, Jeffers, Blankenhorn ((I know he is gone, but he should be at 2B), Kepler in the former Buxton position.

did you know Kepler's OBP is 60 some points higher than Buxton's?

 

I dont know if Kepler should be leading off, but not Buxton.