Eddie Rosario Has Changed, But Is It For the Better?

[Matt Braun]

Eddie Rosario is a different player in 2020. A quick glance at his Fangraphs page might result in concluding that everything is normal, but do not be fooled. Rosario has embraced a slightly different style in 2020. Yes, unlike your ex who lies when they say they’ve changed, Rosario actually has.First and foremost, this is not “beat up on Eddie Rosario week” at Twinsdaily. Nick Nelson wrote his article about phasing out Eddie Rosario without realizing that I was planning on writing this one. Stuff happens. But I don’t care about drawing any grand conclusions about the future of a player. Rather, I want to explain the position they find themselves in after adjusting their playstyle.

 

 

It’s been no secret that the Twins have been trying to edit Rosario’s approach at the plate basically ever since he reached the majors in 2015. His “swing at everything but also somehow hit everything” mentality has served him decently well. The team evidently believes that this same approach might be holding him back from taking another step forward. This step has yet to be taken.

 

 

Believe it or not, Rosario in 2020 has actually begun to show some signs of change. His typically abysmal walk rate is now almost at the league average (8.1%) and his strikeout rate has continued to drop for the fourth straight season (12.8%). Rosario has also hit more balls in the air than he ever has in his MLB career (48.1%). Yet, his wRC+ on the year is just 101. What’s the issue?

Well, while walking more, striking out less, and hitting more balls in the air is a great foundation for a breakout, there is still the small issue of what those batted balls are actually doing.

 

 

Let’s go back for a quick second and check out Rosario’s plate discipline numbers first. His overall swing % is down to 53.2% (career 57.2%), which is probably good. But, his out-of-zone swing rate of 43.9% is actually up a tick from his career rate (42.9%). The issue is that he’s actually swinging less at pitches inside of the strikezone than ever before. Rosario is offering at just 70.9% of pitches inside of the zone, a drop-off from his career rate of 77.3%. Interesting.

 

 

Now we can go to his batted ball profile. Rosario has never been a Statcast monster over the course of his career so far. He typically has instead worked with an “all-fields” approach that gives him more leeway when it comes to the quality of his contact. That being said, 2020 has been especially brutal for him. His xwOBACON (xwOBA on contact) is a paltry .333. That sits at almost .040 points below his average while being .045 points below the league average. If you’re still giggling at the acronym “xwOBACON”, just understand that Rosario is not hitting the ball in ideal ways to get hits.

 

 

My best guess is that Rosario is watching more strikes go by which is putting him at a disadvantage in the count. Now, Rosario can counter this with his excellent contact ability, but the contact he is making in these counts is poor. He’ll run into an extra walk or two naturally but without the strike zone confidence of a Juan Soto-like player, he’ll get nervous when the count isn’t in his favor and prioritize any contact over good contact. Jack Morris might be a fan of this, but the numbers aren't. And who would you rather listen to?

 

The Twins may actually want to urge him to strike out more. It seems counter-intuitive but his current batted-ball profile isn’t ideal. Of course, I’m just some guy on the internet so maybe the Twins shouldn’t listen to me. All I know is that Rosario has changed his approach with results aiming slightly to the negative. Maybe this is just a mini slump or maybe this is one of the adjustments that ballplayers so often make. This current path looks like it still needs a tweak or two however before Rosario can get back to form.

 

MORE FROM TWINS DAILY

— Latest Twins coverage from our writers

— Recent Twins discussion in our forums

— Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

 

Click here to view the article

[Linus]

Seems we are a little Rosario centric lately. There are plenty of Twins that aren’t perfect.

[PopRiveter]

Everyone can see he's got a higher level of production available to him if he can learn to be more selective. He's just learning how to do it. The fact that he's been able to make this much change and produce close to the same in the short-term is a good sign in my opinion.

He's set the right goal and he's making a concerted effort at it. If he actually develops a better knack for pitch recognition, he could turn into a monster hitter. Some of the best hitters develop that ability as they mature.