Article: Correia Signing is a Sad Thing

[rickyriolo]

we get kevin correia and i hear the tigers were trying to get james shields doesn't seem right does it? They have quality starting pitching and are trying to acquire more. We pick up kevin correia and we wonder why we haven't won anything in over 20 years.

bingo.....spot on

[Guest USAFChief]

Some over reaction to this signing. Personally I'm not that bothered by it:

 

2yrs/$10m isn't a budget killing contract. There is still room to add significant payroll

The Twins had OVER 100 STARTS last year from pitchers with an ERA > 5.00, so rolling out those same guys (Blackburn, Pavano, Liriano, Walters etc) isn't an option. Correia's 4.21 ERA from last year will likely rise a bit moving from NL>AL but there's at least some prospect he can keep the team in games rather than being out of it inside 2 innings.

To that end, Correia had 17 starts last year where he went at least 6IP with < 4 earned runs. No Twins starter from last year can claim that. Pittsburgh went 15-13 in games started by Correia last year - I would take that outcome in a heartbeat.

 

Look, am I sickened by the low K rate and lack of upside in the signing? For sure. Would I prefer to see Marcum at 3/35 or Jackson at 4/50? Absolutely. Do I think Correia is going to anchor the rotation over the next two years? Of course not.

 

But in the world in which TR is forced to operate (an institutionalised reluctance for long term FA signings, the 2013 Twins being a spectacularly unattractive FA destination), adding a guy to provide some back of the rotation innings that will keep the team in games for $5m per year hardly warrants a mob of posters with burning torches and pitchforks.

 

Marquis "kept the team in games" last year, too, amiright?

[Boom Boom]

Some over reaction to this signing. Personally I'm not that bothered by it:

 

2yrs/$10m isn't a budget killing contract. There is still room to add significant payroll

The Twins had OVER 100 STARTS last year from pitchers with an ERA > 5.00, so rolling out those same guys (Blackburn, Pavano, Liriano, Walters etc) isn't an option. Correia's 4.21 ERA from last year will likely rise a bit moving from NL>AL but there's at least some prospect he can keep the team in games rather than being out of it inside 2 innings.

To that end, Correia had 17 starts last year where he went at least 6IP with < 4 earned runs. No Twins starter from last year can claim that. Pittsburgh went 15-13 in games started by Correia last year - I would take that outcome in a heartbeat.

 

Look, am I sickened by the low K rate and lack of upside in the signing? For sure. Would I prefer to see Marcum at 3/35 or Jackson at 4/50? Absolutely. Do I think Correia is going to anchor the rotation over the next two years? Of course not.

 

But in the world in which TR is forced to operate (an institutionalised reluctance for long term FA signings, the 2013 Twins being a spectacularly unattractive FA destination), adding a guy to provide some back of the rotation innings that will keep the team in games for $5m per year hardly warrants a mob of posters with burning torches and pitchforks.

 

It's not about killing the budget, the Twins have money to spend.

 

What bothers me is that the Twins already have guys who can give them what Correia can. I'm not a big believer in the minor leaguers the Twins trotted out last year, but I'd rather give them the spot at league minimum than going outside the organization for redundant filler like Correia.

[ThePuck]

Tigers have a heck of a pitching staff, and they are going after Sanchez...Royals get Shields and Wade Davis (who can be a starter...could be a good one...but TB made them a reliever cause they were pitching flush)...and we sign a guy like Correia to go along with other unimpressive starters.

[Nick Nelson]

Hope has this problem - if it's not grounded in some sense of reality - it's often wrong. You got on your high horse to call a realistic position wrong based on hope. You know what I had hope in? Baker at 5.5M finding the Scotty B. that was highly underrated by this fanbase. This schtick doesn't work, people did the same thing to you prior to 2011. The issue wasn't that you were a soulless pessimist - it's that you overlooked reality. I'm not going to hammer you with it, but the positions are essentially flipped Nick. In my eyes, you looked past your own better judgement out of blind optimism rather than real analysis.

 

It happens to all fans, but next time don't be so quick to bash pessimism simply because it isn't what we want to hear. I know I learned that prior to 2011 when you were absolutely right.

 

There were (and are) pitchers out there who would have a far more legitimate chance to bolster this rotation and would probably fall under the Twins' supposed budget constraints. It was not unrealistic to think that Ryan – given unprecedented payroll flexibility – might find a way to land one or two of those guys.

 

In the 2011 offseason many people were pulling the wool over their eyes when it came to moves like swapping Hardy for Nishioka and re-signing Pavano and Capps, blindly trusting in an organization that had enjoyed a decade of nearly uninterrupted success. This is quite different. I've made clear that I think this is a horrible signing. I'm just disappointed, and honestly expected better from TR given how much he has talked about his determination to bring in quality starting pitching.

 

Also, yes, Baker's contract is vastly preferable to Correia's. That doesn't make it a good investment. I don't know why you're acting like this signing is some sort of proof that it was.

[SweetOne69]

"To that end, Correia had 17 starts last year where he went at least 6IP with < 4 earned runs. No Twins starter from last year can claim that. Pittsburgh went 15-13 in games started by Correia last year - I would take that outcome in a heartbeat."

 

Actually he only had 16 Quality Starts last year, the same number as Diamond.

[Kwak]

Apparently most have reached the acceptance/resignation step today. Maybe its getting time to research the top amateurs in the next Rule 4 (amateur) draft so we can discuss who the Twins should select next summer, rather than beating this dead horse some more?

[pasadenajoe]

I think this is a terrible signing. The absolute best case scenario is that he is an average pitcher. More likely is that he is a new Jason Marquis. The Twins shouldn't spend $10 million for that. If you are aiming for mediocre, get some cheap AAAA cast-off guys.

There are pitchers who are riskier but who have a much better upside. The Twins should target them. That way, if they fail, cut bait. If they succeed (ala Diamond), re-sign them.

[Top Gun]

Is Ryan really this dumb?

[TheLeviathan]

It was not unrealistic to think that Ryan – given unprecedented payroll flexibility – might find a way to land one or two of those guys.

 

Landing one may still happen, the problem is after that one you want the best bang for your buck. 5M won't take you far unless you're willing to take on some serious risk. Baker, much like McCarthy and others, has those risks. They will appear to be "overpaid" but you're paying for the reward, not the risk.

 

I will note, that you cited the issue in 2011 as blind trust of the organization and then posted a blog article this year called "In Terry we trust" in the midst of your soap boxing about why anyone with the opposite opinion of you on the signings of Feldman and Baker was misguided and that this offseason they could fix an awful pitching staff in one swing. No offense, but I can't possibly find a better example of blind trust than that. It's not like this organization has a strong history of major offseason upgrades. That's blind trust Nick, it's not any different.

 

Also, yes, Baker's contract is vastly preferable to Correia's. That doesn't make it a good investment. I don't know why you're acting like this signing is some sort of proof that it was.

 

It's proof that 5M can be spent in much, much worse ways. Again I'll venture the same bet I did earlier - 5M is going to be spent this offseason by many teams in many worse ways than a flyer on Scott Baker. To have been so down on that move at the time was blind to the potential of this kind of move. Ultimately we won't know how good any of these investments are until the end of this season. But contrary to your arguments, it was perfectly reasonable to think that 5.5M to Baker was not a reach. The offseason is absolutely bearing that out.

[SydneyTwinsFan]

I guess I'm not convinced that the Twins already have what Correia brings, or that he doesn't fill a need. Time will prove me wrong maybe.

 

At this point, Diamond and Worley are the only guys pencilled in the rotation. What's left?

Hendricks - as a fellow Aussie I hope he makes it, and I'm not going to write him off given his age and relative minor league success, but in terms of WAR, ERA, WHIP he was demonstrably worse than Correia last year

DeVries - looks like the most likely guy to provide some serviceable innings

Deduno - BB rate is an implosion waiting to happen and I'll take Correia's proven mediocrity

Blackburn - you're kidding, right?

Gibson - going to be on an innings count, so bank on him of 1/2 to 2/3 of a season.

 

The fact is, outside of Diamond the Twins weren't able to get 20 starts out of anyone last year. Nick Blackburn (gulp) was forced to turn out 19 starts. There is value in what Correia brings, even if it's not exciting and doesn;t have much upside. Of course I would prefer them to sign Marcum or Jackson to provide genuine quality, and I hope by some miracle they do, but you can't force them to come here. And if you can't get those guys then you have to find whatever modest ways to improve the team you can. Replacing the 30 starts the team was forced to endure from Blackburn/Pavano with Correia makes the team incrementally better.

[Top Gun]

FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal reports that the Yankees have signed free agent third baseman Kevin Youkilis to a one-year, $12 million contract.

 

Youkilis turned down a two-year, $18 million propsal from the Indians in order to return to the American League East. It should be a nice fit for him in New York, where he'll start at third base until Alex Rodriguez returns from mid-January hip surgery. "Youk" batted .235/.336/.409 with 19 home runs and 60 RBI in 122 games this past season between the Red Sox and White Sox.

Related: Yankees

 

Source: Ken Rosenthal on Twitte

[SydneyTwinsFan]

Actually he only had 16 Quality Starts last year, the same as Diamond

 

Should that depress me about the "ace" of the rotation or encourage me about Correia?

I'm not trying to defend the Correia signing as a great one, far from it. Just suggesting it's not as bad as is being made out here.

[JB_Iowa]

It seems to me that there were a number of people who had high hopes that the Twins would sign 2 pitchers in FA who were better than average (or at least 1 better than average and 1 average) -- and some were actually hoping for 3.

 

I never had those expectations so this is less disappointing to me than it may be to some others. I've been pleased with the trades Ryan made because I've wanted them to start rebuilding since October 2010 BUT my eye continues to be on the bottom line.

 

No one should be blithely accepting of a payroll at $75-$80 million unless the Twins make it VERY clear that they are no longer adhering to the 50% policy AND are, in fact, harboring some of unspent portion of their savings for use down the road (and, if that is the case, then they had darn well better be spending significantly more than 50% when it comes to 2014, 2015 and later [and yes, I realize that is a Catch-22 in that 50% may be less dollars if attendance continues to decline although the extra $25m in split TV revenues will help]).

 

I realize that I'm like a broken record on this point but IF the Twins continue to maintain that they are adhering to the 50+% rule THEN, if they won't (or can't) put it into some decent starting pitching, they darn well need to be seeking out upgrades & values at some of their positions that might later be flipped for more prospects.

[Top Gun]

Twins signed RHP Scott Elarton to a minor league contract.

 

Elarton hasn't appeared in the majors since 2008 and posted a 5.41 ERA in 26 starts at Triple-A for the Phillies in 2012. He's merely organizational depth.

[snepp]

fox sports' ken rosenthal reports that the yankees have signed free agent third baseman kevin youkilis to a one-year, $12 million contract.

 

Youkilis turned down a two-year, $18 million propsal from the indians in order to return to the american league east. It should be a nice fit for him in new york, where he'll start at third base until alex rodriguez returns from mid-january hip surgery. "youk" batted .235/.336/.409 with 19 home runs and 60 rbi in 122 games this past season between the red sox and white sox.

related: yankees

 

source: ken rosenthal on twitte

 

wtf?

[twinsnorth49]

Actually he only had 16 Quality Starts last year, the same as Diamond

 

Should that depress me about the "ace" of the rotation or encourage me about Correia?

I'm not trying to defend the Correia signing as a great one, far from it. Just suggesting it's not as bad as is being made out here.

 

It''s absolutely as bad as it's being made out to be.

[Riverbrian]

 

Marquis "kept the team in games" last year, too, amiright?

 

"To that end, Correia had 17 starts last year where he went at least 6IP with < 4 earned runs. No Twins starter from last year can claim that. Pittsburgh went 15-13 in games started by Correia last year - I would take that outcome in a heartbeat."

 

Actually he only had 16 Quality Starts last year, the same number as Diamond.

 

yeah... The Ol' QS... A pretty good indicator of keeping your team in the game in my opinion. Good call...

 

QS%

 

Correia .571

 

Cherry picking this stat makes him look fairly affective. Marcum is also at .57... So is Worley.

 

Greinke is at .59... That means two out five starts were not quality. Greinke 20 quality starts out of 34. 14 Starts that he couldnt get thru 6 innings of work without giving up 3 runs or less... This is the guy that everyone wants at 25 million per? Yet Correia... Gave his team a chance to win at an equal percentage and he is crucified.

 

Pitchers with a lower QS% in 2012

 

Hellickson...Wainwright... T.Hudson... Minor... Free Agent Edwin Jackson... Masterson... Latos... Lester... Haren... Buchholz... Matt Moore... Tommy Hanson... Lincecum...

 

Based on 100 IP minimum... Correia is tied for 60th... 30 teams in MLB...

 

The more I look into this... I could end up... Actually liking this signing.

 

Chief... Marquis had two quality starts in Minnesota,.. So yeah... I guess Marquis had a couple.

[Brandon]

 

This is the last I am going to post about this signing. and we better get at least one decent pitcher.

[ssmart]

Well, ah ... Thanks Nick that certainaly depressed me. Ryan Dempster Guy.

[The Greatest Poster Alive]

I can't bring myself to hate this move. The Twins are not at the top of anybody's list for free agency... If this guy forces Walters/Devries/Deduno/Blackburn to at least EARN a spot in the rotation, then the Twins made a good move.

 

I know everybody wants the big splash, but this team isn't a contender even if this was Grienke the Twins signed. 2013 is a rebuild year, accept it. Would you rather the Twins make their big splash now, and waste what will be the 2 most productive years of a big free agents' deal on a rebuilding season? I'd rather this team punt 2013 and make their big splash in 2014.

 

And finally, 2 years 10 million... It's peanuts. It will not hamper this team in ANY way next year or this year in the free agent market. The Twins will sign free agents if they think they can contend.

[snepp]

And finally, 2 years 10 million... It's peanuts. It will not hamper this team in ANY way next year or this year in the free agent market.

 

Just like the Capps contract didn't hamper them this past offseason, when they gave him way too much money way too early in free agency. Nope, it's inconceivable that this contract could potentially hamper them in ANY way this year or next. No chance whatsoever. None. Zip.

[johnnydakota]

Dodger get another as Skip skips the Twins

Shumaker is now a Dodger..

[kdag23]

To me it feels like a Jason Marquis deal. So, the Twins are going to have a rotation made up of guys that are no better than #3 on most other rosters in the league...again?

 

This signing irks me considering that KC just signed James Shields. K f******C! The Twins don't have the pieces to do something like that - to sign someone who could actually be a legitimate #1?

 

I got to thinking about Torii Hunter's comments a few seasons ago when talking about the Twins: "Sometimes I think they have that small mind over there, in that organization."

 

The Royals didn't sign James Shields, they traded the best hitting prospect in baseball to get him....

 

Signed, traded for...semantics. The point is - when was the last time the Twins acquired a legitimate top of the rotation guy?

[beckmt]

You have to buy them in single A as pieces or take one as a chance at a higher level(May). The best the Royals trade was is even and many baseball writers consider it a steal for Tampa Bay. If that is what the Twins have to do, buy and develope, don't give the future away for a small chance now.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Signed, traded for...semantics. The point is - when was the last time the Twins acquired a legitimate top of the rotation guy?

 

Not in my lifetime.

 

And if the going rate for one is what Kansas City just paid, I hope that continues to be the case. Kansas City was a 90 loss team in 2012. I have the feeling they're going to seriously regret pulling the trigger on competing prematurely. There was just no reason for it. Detroit is stronger this season but should begin to fade quickly as Fielder/Miggy get older, Verlander & Co. log more innings, Hunter falls into obscurity, V-Mart leaves, etc.

 

There was simply no reason to go all-in right now. 2014 looks like a much better window to compete. I think Moore just made a huge mistake.

[old nurse]

 

No worse than your assumption the Twins DID offer the most money, but the pitcher decided a team that's only been bad the last two seasons isn't worth going to.

 

It's all assumptions, you just think yours are better.

 

All I did was say it COULD be a factor, along with the other factors given by the person who made the post I was responding to

 

Read much? My assumptions that even if (Not did, if) the Twins were the high bidder they would not come here. The best anyone has come up with for high profile free agent signings to a last place team was Jeff Francis.

[Mike Sixel]

So people still think they will fix all their holes next year, and should not start now? Can you explain how you think that might work? Can you explain how signing a second tier starter for 3-4 years does not help 2014?

[Nick Nelson]

I will note, that you cited the issue in 2011 as blind trust of the organization and then posted a blog article this year called "In Terry we trust" in the midst of your soap boxing about why anyone with the opposite opinion of you on the signings of Feldman and Baker was misguided and that this offseason they could fix an awful pitching staff in one swing. No offense, but I can't possibly find a better example of blind trust than that. It's not like this organization has a strong history of major offseason upgrades. That's blind trust Nick, it's not any different.

I do trust Terry Ryan. I trust his long-term vision. I trust his honesty. I trust his ability to pluck quality players out of other organizations. But he's not flawless and his ability to sign quality free agent pitchers is clearly a major weakness. Maybe it's a money thing tied to the organization's fiscal philosophies but signing Corriea to a two-year deal in December is strange from any perspective. I thought perhaps he'd learned a lesson from the Jason Marquis fiasco (not to mention Livan Hernandez, Sidney Ponson, Ramon Ortiz, etc) but apparently not. Nevertheless, there are worse flaws that a GM could have, especially for a franchise such as this one that will never rely on free agency to build a rotation.

 

Could you please find an example of me harshly criticizing "anyone with the opposite opinion" and "soapboxing" on Baker/Feldman? I recall stating my opinion on the matter, as is the norm on a message board. I don't recall being as dramatic about it as you make it sound.

[TheLeviathan]

Nevertheless, there are worse flaws that a GM could have, especially for a franchise such as this one that will never rely on free agency to build a rotation.

 

I'm not a Ryan basher, that's not the direction it's heading. Ryan builds strong organizations, is patient, and has (as you correctly put it) long-term vision. But all of those factors are also incredibly strong indicators that a one-offseason approach to fixing this team were absolutely foolish. Going into this offseason with that expectation was blind trust because it relied on JR to do something he's never done before and is unlikely to ever do in his tenure. It's not his wheelhouse.

 

As for the rest, we both know no matter what is posted we'll keep our own opinion on the tone. The threads aren't hard to find, basically any centered on Feldman, Baker, or your thoughts about them. You were aggressive in your early condemnation of the Cubs signings (arguably three articles with that point) and made it a point to call out a number of posters who shared pessimism about the upcoming season. It doesn't make me happy that we are bound to stink again next year, but it also doesn't change that the side of the fence you chose on both of those arguments was wrong.