Article: On Paradigms and Kevin Correia

[Squirrel]

Is 6:30am too early to start drinking or to late to stop?

 

As the saying goes ... it's 5 o' clock somewhere.

[Monkeypaws]

Day and Night TR talks....each word more useless then the next.... give me cancer now god!

 

Hank!

 

I will assume the minority role here and say, let's wait and see how he does before we crucify Ryan.

[Guest USAFChief]

Right now, the 2013 Twins are still probably a better team than the 2012 Twins...

 

That's dubious, at best.

 

No centerfielder, no leadoff hitter. No additions to the middle infield. Nothing significant added to a very shallow bullpen that will likely be hard pressed to match last year's mediocrity. Outside of the rotation, the Twins were about as healthy as could be expected in 2012. The only 2012 starter who performed at a major league level is a pretty good candidate for some serious regression.

 

The only additions of note are Correia, and coming-off-elbow-surgery Worley. Gibson may or may not be ready, and/or healthy enough to take a rotation spot for part of the season, and if he does, succeed. Hendrics has done little to give one much optomisim.

 

I think there's a much stronger argument to be made that right now, the 2013 Twins are most likely several games worse than the 2012 Twins.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Right now, the 2013 Twins are still probably a better team than the 2012 Twins...

 

That's dubious, at best.

 

No centerfielder, no leadoff hitter. No additions to the middle infield. Nothing significant added to a very shallow bullpen that will likely be hard pressed to match last year's mediocrity. Outside of the rotation, the Twins were about as healthy as could be expected in 2012. The only 2012 starter who performed at a major league level is a pretty good candidate for some serious regression.

 

The only additions of note are Correia, and coming-off-elbow-surgery Worley. Gibson may or may not be ready, and/or healthy enough to take a rotation spot for part of the season, and if he does, succeed. Hendrics has done little to give one much optomisim.

 

I think there's a much stronger argument to be made that right now, the 2013 Twins are most likely several games worse than the 2012 Twins.

 

I think you're underestimating just how bad the starting rotation was in 2012. The rotation was 29th in baseball in ERA while the bullpen was 17th in ERA while pitching the third most innings. Stabilize that rotation at all and you're looking at a much better overall ERA because so many of those bullpen innings won't be going to the Jeff Grays of the world, dragging down the bullpen ERA.

 

This team is still bad, there's not doubt about it. But I'd wager that just the Worley acquisition makes them slightly better overall (and there's a chance Correia contributes something, though I wouldn't bet on it). The offense has certainly taken a knock and while some guys are due to regress, there's also room for improvement in some areas (a full season of Parmelee vs. Revere, Morneau continuing to adjust, etc.).

 

I don't buy into the argument that they're actually worse. The pitching staff, particularly in the first half of 2012, was historically terrible.

[Guest USAFChief]

Right now, the 2013 Twins are still probably a better team than the 2012 Twins...

 

That's dubious, at best.

 

No centerfielder, no leadoff hitter. No additions to the middle infield. Nothing significant added to a very shallow bullpen that will likely be hard pressed to match last year's mediocrity. Outside of the rotation, the Twins were about as healthy as could be expected in 2012. The only 2012 starter who performed at a major league level is a pretty good candidate for some serious regression.

 

The only additions of note are Correia, and coming-off-elbow-surgery Worley. Gibson may or may not be ready, and/or healthy enough to take a rotation spot for part of the season, and if he does, succeed. Hendrics has done little to give one much optomisim.

 

I think there's a much stronger argument to be made that right now, the 2013 Twins are most likely several games worse than the 2012 Twins.

 

I think you're underestimating just how bad the starting rotation was in 2012. The rotation was 29th in baseball in ERA while the bullpen was 17th in ERA while pitching the third most innings. Stabilize that rotation at all and you're looking at a much better overall ERA because so many of those bullpen innings won't be going to the Jeff Grays of the world, dragging down the bullpen ERA.

 

This team is still bad, there's not doubt about it. But I'd wager that just the Worley acquisition makes them slightly better overall (and there's a chance Correia contributes something, though I wouldn't bet on it). The offense has certainly taken a knock and while some guys are due to regress, there's also room for improvement in some areas (a full season of Parmelee vs. Revere, Morneau continuing to adjust, etc.).

 

I don't buy into the argument that they're actually worse. The pitching staff, particularly in the first half of 2012, was historically terrible.

 

I guess we'll see. 60% of that rotation is still in place, and I don't see how adding Correia fixes any of the other 40%. Worley is no sure thing either.

 

im also of the opinion the Twins are done adding FA starters, so there's that.

[Rick Niedermann]

This just makes no sense. Why not just go with Deduno, DeVries or even Blackburn. Correia is very much like Blackburn. So 10 million this year for bad pitchers Blackburn and Correia. And another wasted 5 million next year.

[Kobs]

I don't think people understand just how badthis offense could be.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Very difficult to see an upside here. Deduno would be more interesting.

[ashbury]

No, this is really that bad. It's not an overreaction to say so. The killer is 2014; Correia will have been blasted out of the rotation by then, but it's $5 million down the drain for a season that is hopefully when things can finally head in a positive direction.

 

This is the pipe dream people continue to cling to, that 2014 means anything. It's been clear for several weeks now that 2015 is the target date for serious contention. 2014 is when the team turns the corner, but should not be expected to really go places quite yet. 2013 is all about laying groundwork where it is possible, and otherwise riding it out with as presentable a team as possible. Two-year signings (and guys such as Willingham who will be with us in that period) will make sense in this last light, and have no bearing on the real story of 2015.

 

I'm not thrilled with Correia, as I was hoping for somewhat better "hold the fort" signings, but ultimately the $10M spent will not hold the team back in either year.

[ashbury]

Is 6:30am too early to start drinking or to late to stop?

 

That one goes into my quotes file. Thanks.

[ashbury]

Oh, what I'd give to know what unsuccessful offers the Twins have made.

 

Did they simply misread the market and fail to open the checkbook when middle-tier pitchers were signing early or are pitchers really that adverse to signing in Minnesota? Are they now just desperate? Are they trying to keep the payroll below $85 million.

 

How I wish I knew what was really going on here.

 

Me too, and this is why 99% of the comments (including mine) are just jabber.

[nicksaviking]

So if Appel is the pick at #4 in the June draft, does he go right into the #3 spot in the rotation or does he still get sent to Ft. Myers?

[clutterheart]

Here is a real paradigm shift. Time to trade Mauer and let the real rebuild start.

[Riverbrian]

Here are the stats of 2 Pitchers from the 2012 season:

 

 

W L ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB S0 AVG. WHIP

 

12 9 3.54 27 27 173.0 184 76 68 17 31 90 .274 1.24

12 11 4.21 32 28 171.0 176 89 80 20 46 89 .267 1.30

 

One of these Pitchers we seem to like and the other pitcher is causing a negative reaction from Twins Daily Posters and the usually sensible Twins Daily management as well.

 

Just wanted to point this out... Everyone can go back to lighting your torches and throwing stones.

[Twins Fan From Afar]

Here are the stats of 2 Pitchers from the 2012 season:

 

 

W L ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB S0 AVG. WHIP

 

12 9 3.54 27 27 173.0 184 76 68 17 31 90 .274 1.24

12 11 4.21 32 28 171.0 176 89 80 20 46 89 .267 1.30

 

One of these Pitchers we seem to like and the other pitcher is causing a negative reaction from Twins Daily Posters and the usually sensible Twins Daily management as well.

 

Just wanted to point this out... Everyone can go back to lighting your torches and throwing stones.

 

Yes, but Scott Diamond (the top pitcher on your list) conceivably could -- should -- improve, and will be earning, what, $500,000 this season?

[LoganJones]

This just makes no sense. Why not just go with Deduno, DeVries or even Blackburn. Correia is very much like Blackburn. So 10 million this year for bad pitchers Blackburn and Correia. And another wasted 5 million next year.

 

Stop being intentionally obtuse or too lazy to go look it up, or whatever. Sure their total numbers for the last 3 years are similar. The major difference is the direction they are trending in. As of last season, Correia is a considerably better option than Blackburn.

[nicksaviking]

Here are the stats of 2 Pitchers from the 2012 season:

 

 

W L ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB S0 AVG. WHIP

 

12 9 3.54 27 27 173.0 184 76 68 17 31 90 .274 1.24

12 11 4.21 32 28 171.0 176 89 80 20 46 89 .267 1.30

 

One of these Pitchers we seem to like and the other pitcher is causing a negative reaction from Twins Daily Posters and the usually sensible Twins Daily management as well.

 

Just wanted to point this out... Everyone can go back to lighting your torches and throwing stones.

 

I think most people think Diamond is due to regress. I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop anyway.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Here are the stats of 2 Pitchers from the 2012 season:

 

 

W L ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB S0 AVG. WHIP

 

12 9 3.54 27 27 173.0 184 76 68 17 31 90 .274 1.24

12 11 4.21 32 28 171.0 176 89 80 20 46 89 .267 1.30

 

One of these Pitchers we seem to like and the other pitcher is causing a negative reaction from Twins Daily Posters and the usually sensible Twins Daily management as well.

 

Just wanted to point this out... Everyone can go back to lighting your torches and throwing stones.

 

Scott Diamond makes $500k, many here expect regression from him, he pitched 2012 in the AL, and he still posted a FiP half a run lower than Correira.

 

Oh yeah, and he's not 32.

[Riverbrian]

Here are the stats of 2 Pitchers from the 2012 season:

 

 

W L ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB S0 AVG. WHIP

 

12 9 3.54 27 27 173.0 184 76 68 17 31 90 .274 1.24

12 11 4.21 32 28 171.0 176 89 80 20 46 89 .267 1.30

 

One of these Pitchers we seem to like and the other pitcher is causing a negative reaction from Twins Daily Posters and the usually sensible Twins Daily management as well.

 

Just wanted to point this out... Everyone can go back to lighting your torches and throwing stones.

 

Yes, but Scott Diamond (the top pitcher on your list) conceivably could -- should -- improve

 

I think most people think Diamond is due to regress. I'm waiting for the other shoe to fall anyway.

 

Oh My... That didn't take long to get two different projections on Diamond.

[ThePuck]

Correia struck out 4.68 hitters per nine innings last year, tied for third-worst among qualified pitchers. He had the second-lowest percentage of swinging strikes in the majors.

[Twins Fan From Afar]

Here are the stats of 2 Pitchers from the 2012 season:

 

 

W L ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB S0 AVG. WHIP

 

12 9 3.54 27 27 173.0 184 76 68 17 31 90 .274 1.24

12 11 4.21 32 28 171.0 176 89 80 20 46 89 .267 1.30

 

One of these Pitchers we seem to like and the other pitcher is causing a negative reaction from Twins Daily Posters and the usually sensible Twins Daily management as well.

 

Just wanted to point this out... Everyone can go back to lighting your torches and throwing stones.

 

Yes, but Scott Diamond (the top pitcher on your list) conceivably could -- should -- improve

 

I think most people think Diamond is due to regress. I'm waiting for the other shoe to fall anyway.

 

Oh My... That didn't take long to get two different projections on Diamond.

 

Don't worry ... my opinion on Diamond is uneducated!

I wonder whether Diamond or Correia is more likely to improve on their past season's numbers.

[ThePuck]

What does Diamond make again? Diamond pitched in the AL, while Marquis, er, Ponson, er, Hernandez, er...Ortiz, er, I mean Correia pitched in the NL.

[Mike Sixel]

Diamond is on a year to year deal. He pitched in the AL. He makes the league minimum. He is younger. He was not sent to the pen last year. The numbers need to be put in context.

[Rube]

Sure this signing sucks, and everyone seems to agree that signing no one would be better. But if TR did sign no one everyone would be complaining about that also. Guy can't win - unless he spends $100 million on pitching.

[ThePuck]

''We want the kind of pitchers we haven't had enough of," Twins assistant general manager Rob Antony said. "Pitchers who can miss bats."

[Mike Sixel]

No one is asking Ryan to spend 100 million on pitching. One legit pitcher is around 13-15 per year. Add in one or two flyers for less than 5MM per year, and the pitching budget is less than what Mauer makes. Is that really unreasonable?

[ThePuck]

Sure this signing sucks, and everyone seems to agree that signing no one would be better. But if TR did sign no one everyone would be complaining about that also. Guy can't win - unless he spends $100 million on pitching.

 

Poor guy...had 30M to spend after getting Worley, was only looking for pitchers, and really only needed two more. I feel for him.

 

He has never spent on pitching...

[gmarais66]

I don't think I have seen more negativity or anger over a single topic that has been posted on TD. I think most of it is just disappointment this signing isn't a bigger fish. Sure, Correia isn't a high profile strikeout pitcher, but lets give him a chance, before we burn him at the stake. Personally I like this signing. I envision Correia being very similar to Pavano in his first two seasons with the Twins. I think he's a guy that can go out there and keep the Twins in the game and give them a chance to win. These comparisons to Blackburn and Walters are more than a little ridiculous. Apparently all this snow has frozen people's brains and they've already forgotten how absolutely horrible the Twins' pitching was last season. Here's a refresher:

 

Liriano, 3-10, 5.31 ERA, 1.44 WHIP

Blackburn, 4-9, 7.39 ERA, 1.71 WHIP

Walters, 2-5, 5.69 ERA, 1.51 WHIP

Hendriks, 1-8, 5.59 ERA, 1.55 WHIP

 

Are the memories coming back now? To say these guys are equal to or better than Correia is absolute hogwash. He'll definitely be an upgrade to the rotation and I'm confident TR will sign a more significant name to add to the rotation, in the coming weeks.

[Riverbrian]

A. I'm not really defending the signing... He wouldn't have been my first choice but I really don't know that TR signing Correia First necessarily means that he was TR's first choice either.

 

B. My post wasn't meant to slam Diamond or directly cause a comparison between the two. Comparing players is impossible. I just wanted to point out that the difference between Diamond and Correia when it comes to numbers in 2012 are very similiar.

 

C. Similiar numbers simply points out that it's possible that we are losing our minds a little here.

 

D. I'm as shocked by the salary as anyone but the market is the market and we have little control over that... Much like we can't control the price of gas.

 

E. Age is why he's making 5 Million and Diamond is making 500,000. That's the way baseball is structured. If Diamond was eligible for FA... The salary for Diamond would change... It's really a non-point to make.

 

F. Fielding Independant Stats will always be tough on pitchers with low K-Rates.

 

G. The Difference in ERA between the two over 170 Innings is 12 earned runs. A lot of factors can make up the difference in 12 runs over the year. One Ben Revere catch at the right time... Can save you 4 earned runs in a single inning. It isn't worth wringing your hands over.

 

H. Next year... Correia could be at 4.05 and Diamond could be at 4.35... Things change.

 

I. I'm not defending the signing... He wouldn't have been my first choice but the Blackburn and Marquis comparisons are a bit much. Blackburn and Marquis had ERA's over 8 for the Twins in 2012.

 

J. LOL... I'm sure your torches are still lit.

[Rube]

No one is asking Ryan to spend 100 million on pitching. One legit pitcher is around 13-15 per year. Add in one or two flyers for less than 5MM per year, and the pitching budget is less than what Mauer makes. Is that really unreasonable?

 

To get a pitcher making 13 - 15 per year they will want a multi year deal (Haren is the exception) plus the $5 M flyers. Thus the $100 million.

 

I agree that was never in the cards from the beginning. TR has never done it and never will. I just wish they would shed a little more light on what goes on behind the scenes - otherwise, like the commentors said above - all this bantering is uninformed gibberish.