The Time Has Come to Begin Phasing Out Eddie Rosario

[twinbythebay]

 

and i understand your point. At some juncture everyone has to make a decision on how to allocate the budget. Its Pohlads money not mine. Assuming they don't pocket every dime that is a profit, I just dont see how not keeping Rosario is going to help us. We will muss him a lot. The future is bright for sure but I will tell you this. We can kiss Buxton's A$$ goodbye and Berrios too. They aren't signing extensions. Treating loyal guys like Rosario right might seem not sensible to you. If you look at it another way, guys like Donaldson, will not want to come around if we continually screw players over that have paid their dues here through thick and thin. Another example is Trevor May. How are we going to deal with him. MLB has another problem now and it's because nobody stays on one team long enough for young fans to know and grow with the stars. Its sad. It didnt used to be that way

You may very well be right. Bust as the Al Davis mantra goes... "Just Win Baby!" If the Twins make the right moves that lead to a culture of winning and competing for championships (NOT just division titles) consistently, then I don't think they'll have any issues attracting and retaining talent.

 

In my personal opinion, I would put much higher priority on locking up Buxton and Berrios in the next year rather than Rosario.

[SoDakTwinsFan4]

Oooookay, hold the phones here. Let's break this down.

 

Rosario's 7 RBIs over the past week:

 

• 2-run HR against CWS when they were already up 6-1
  
• RBI single and solo HR in losing effort against DET on Sunday
  
• 3-run double on Monday on a grounder down the first base line that (fortunately) hit the bag instead of turning into an out
  

 

During this span he also cost the Twins runs by missing plays in the outfield and making multiple outs on the base paths. So, no, he did no by any stretch of the imagination "save the season."

 

Meanwhile, as the Twins lost six straight games in the previous week, Rosario went 2-for-17 with zero XBH and zero RBIs.

 

 

Bam! Kaboom! Pow! Sound of door slamming...

[Twodogs]

You may very well be right. Bust as the Al Davis mantra goes... "Just Win Baby!" If the Twins make the right moves that lead to a culture of winning and competing for championships (NOT just division titles) consistently, then I don't think they'll have any issues attracting and retaining talent.

 

In my personal opinion, I would put much higher priority on locking up Buxton and Berrios in the next year rather than Rosario.

I hope I'm wrong but I have a bad feeling that both Buxton and Berrios will be gone as soon as they can be.

[DocBauer]

Late to the discussion but had to weigh in. Keep in mind, I'm a fan of his, despite some of his flaws.

 

I don't think anyone is saying Rosario is a bad player. Period. It is about the team getting better as well as managing the team/roster going forward. The one area of Rosario debate that amuses me is his production is somehow "expected" or "excused" because he should somehow "easily" produce power and RBI numbers because of where he sits in the lineup most days. Please. I'd like to think Rocco and his staff are smart, and probably smarter than we are. They put him in those lineup spots because he CAN produce runs. He has the power to do it. He has the confidence in himself to do it. And that's not true of everyone. So to dismiss his production...good production...because almost anyone could do it is just wrong. Could he do better? Is he streaky and sometimes maddening? Yes to both. But he is a good and productive ballplayer and to dismiss him, even if you aren't a big fan/believer is a disservice.

 

All that being said, I think it makes complete sense to realize he may not fit in long term. Now, ANY thought of phasing him out during a playoff season is ludicrous. IMO, it's also really hard to believe he won't be back as an important piece in 2021. No matter how the work is coming along in St Paul, or what any AFL or EST may happen or look like, it seems a bit short-sighted to just audition prospects, top prospects, who have some to no experience above AA ball with no actual milb season this season and is also without a normal September call up scenario. Additionally, there are 40 man implications and no real fluff remaining that you just feel OK to dump to make room for someone until you have to.

 

I feel Rooker has a chance to be pretty good. (Though I remain frustrated that such a good overall athlete still has some defensive questions). I feel really good about both Kirilloff and Larnach both and love their potential. And yes, I also feel either or both may indeed be even better than Rosario. But I'm not ready to bank on any of them being able to replace Rosario at the start of 2021.

 

While Eddie could be moved in a deal, auditions and possible platoons could happen to replace him, I believe he will be back in 2021, his last arbitration season. At some point next year, certainly before 2022 hopefully takes place, I believe Rooker, Kirilloff and Larnach will be ready. Celestino hopefully close behind. Finances are a part of the game. And there are other guys I would choose to extend and keep that I believe are far less easy to replace.

[FlauerPauer]

Eddie is top 5 in all major categories on the Twins. Most of his stats are in the top 3. Eddie is a gamer, a good player, and a leader. I don't see how you phase him out right now. Offseason  may be a different animal, but right now the team is better with Eddie.

[Danchat]

 

Yeah I bet you dont hope he winds up in Cleveland. If he does he will haunt you and the rest if the non believers fir at least 19 times a year for 5 years. Why doesnt anyone wanna pick on Berrios? or Sano? or Garver? for example...dude had one good year...won silver slugger at catcher...this year he sucks. What does Rosario have to do? Hes been here since 2015 FULL TIME. ahead of Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Garver,maybe Polanco, maybe even Berrios. Is anybody serious when they say bottom line, all around, we are better off with Rooker, Kiriloff, or Larnach out in left? are you fu€*ing kidding me? Obviously nobody in the organization shares this belief. Why dont we try and focus on what is right instead of sniping at someone who has done nothing but bust his ass for us and be proud to be one of us.

Y'know, you could make this exact same argument about Brian Dozier - team leader and well-respected in the locker room, very good hitter who hit HRs and scored lots of runs as a leadoff man, and had shaky fielding skills. The team abruptly shipped him off in 2018 as his play declined somewhat, and despite losing a player loved by the team and the fans, the 2019 offense turned out to be a historic unit without him. 

 

As I've said before, I'm not looking to replace him immediately, but it's worth wondering whether it's better giving him his arbitration money (should be around $10M), or spending that elsewhere to improve the team. It's not impossible to find a free agent or develop one of our several highly touted prospects to replace him. I could understand either retaining him or moving on form him, I think both sides are certainly defensible.

 

[Nine of twelve]

 

Y'know, you could make this exact same argument about Brian Dozier - team leader and well-respected in the locker room, very good hitter who hit HRs and scored lots of runs as a leadoff man, and had shaky fielding skills. The team abruptly shipped him off in 2018 as his play declined somewhat, and despite losing a player loved by the team and the fans, the 2019 offense turned out to be a historic unit without him. 

 

As I've said before, I'm not looking to replace him immediately, but it's worth wondering whether it's better giving him his arbitration money (should be around $10M), or spending that elsewhere to improve the team. It's not impossible to find a free agent or develop one of our several highly touted prospects to replace him. I could understand either retaining him or moving on form him, I think both sides are certainly defensible.

You could make that argument but I think it's inaccurate to do so. Dozier was 31 when we traded him and there were strong signs that his level of play was dropping. Rosario is 28. The question of return on the value of a larger contract is legitimate but there are no signs that his level of play is going to drop at all in the near future, and certainly not as precipitously as what happened with Dozier.

[Nick Nelson]

 

You could make that argument but I think it's inaccurate to do so. Dozier was 31 when we traded him and there were strong signs that his level of play was dropping. Rosario is 28. The question of return on the value of a larger contract is legitimate but there are no signs that his level of play is going to drop at all in the near future, and certainly not as precipitously as what happened with Dozier.

No signs? 

Rosario by fWAR:

 

2017: 2.6

2018: 3.5

2019: 1.2
2020: 0.4 (162-G pace: 1.2)

 

Rosario by bWAR:

 

2017: 1.5

2018: 4.1

2019: 1.7

2020: 0.5 (162-G pace: 1.5)

 

As illustrated in the article, underlying batted ball and fielding data show that his declining offensive and defensive metrics are no mirage. I guess you could say there's no drop-off coming in the "near future" in that it's already happening right now. 
 

[chpettit19]

 

You could make that argument but I think it's inaccurate to do so. Dozier was 31 when we traded him and there were strong signs that his level of play was dropping. Rosario is 28. The question of return on the value of a larger contract is legitimate but there are no signs that his level of play is going to drop at all in the near future, and certainly not as precipitously as what happened with Dozier.

Thoughts on the Dozier comp:

Baseball Reference Stats:

Dozier OPS+ 2015-2017: 104, 134, 126 traded in 2018

Rosario OPS+ 2017-2019: 119, 116, 108 and now people talking about shipping him out in 2020 (or non-tender him after)

His level of hitting has never been as high as Dozier's and has been declining for 3 years. (He's at 107 right now this year)
Dozier WAR 2015-2017: 2.8, 5.8, 4.6

Rosario WAR 2017-2019: 1.5, 4.1, 1.7 (only 2 seasons over 2 WAR in his career)

His overall play had 1 spike year 2 years ago, but otherwise hasn't been close to peak Dozier.

 

Fangraphs Stats:

Dozier WRC+ 2015-2017: 102, 132, 126

Rosario WRC+ 2017-2019: 117, 114, 103 (101 this year)

Dozier WAR 2015-2017: 3.1, 6.3, 5.1

Rosario WAR 2017-2019: 2.6, 3.5, 1.2

 

Rosario's peak has never reached Dozier's peak and he has been declining for 3 years now. I think Dozier is a very accurate comp, and was trade-able because he was drastically better the 2 seasons before his trade than Rosario is. When we step back and actually look at the player Rosario is we can see why they weren't able to swing a trade this off season. He's incredibly replaceable. 

 

Response to the article and thread as a whole:

Corner outfielders with similar WRC+ to Rosario last year (plus peak career year):

Whit Merrifield (utility so bit of stretch on the Corner OF thing) 110/119

Franmil Reyes 109/129 (141 this year)

Marcel Ozuna 109/143 (158 this year)

Kole Calhoun 108/127 (over 120 twice)

Adam Eaton 107/124 (over 120 3 times)

Domingo Santana 107/127

Eddie Rosario 103/117

Dexter Fowler 103/129 (over 120 5 times including this year)

Jason Heyward 101/134 (over 120 5 times including this year)

Yasiel Puig 101/160 (over 120 3 times and currently unemployed)

Andrew Benintendi 100/122 (over 120 twice)

Alex Gordon 96/140 (over 120 4 times)

Josh Reddick 94/127

Randal Grichuk 90/138

 

Eddie has the lowest peak year out of that entire group and basically all of them have beat his best year multiple times. This is just offense so it doesn't even take into account his terrible defense where many on this list are drastically better. Are these guys all worthy of major league jobs? For sure. But I don't think many fighting for Eddie to stick around would be thrilled to have him replaced by Kole Calhoun, but the reality is Kole Calhoun has had a better career than Eddie. Eddie is simply a league average corner outfielder offensively, and, as discussed in the article and thread, a well below average defender. Does that mean one of the prospects are guaranteed to perform better? No. But unless you're wanting to go out and spend close to $10 mil on Kole Calhoun instead of give a young guy a shot next year you shouldn't be fighting for Eddie who adds terrible defense and much more frequent than you'd like base running gaffes.

[PopRiveter]

Totally disagree Nick.

 

Eddie is a flawed player, but he is the Twins most talented and gifted hitter not named Cruz.

 

For example, compare his career OPS (.786) with Max Kepler's (.763). Max has done it with a very disciplined approach that seems to maximize his talent while Eddie's does even more damage with unrefined talent. I think he has another level accessible to him that he can reach as a hitter if he keeps trending toward being a more-disciplined hitter. What Eddie lacks as a hitter can come with age, experience, training. Might be time to move on from Max?

 

If Larnach, Rooker or Kiriloff were to put up a batting line a little below Rosario's average tripleslash, they'd likely win ROY. Much more likely, we should hope they will trend toward that level of production by year 3 of their careers.  

 

All that said, you'll probably get your way. Somebody has to make way for the wave of upcoming prospects and Kepler's under control 'til 2024. Prepare for an offensive drop off.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

It's been clear for some time that Eddie Rosario's days with the Twins are numbered, as a result of several converging factors: top prospects on the rise, impending free agency, and – most significantly – his own declining performance.

The latter of these issues is becoming so unignorable it should be accelerating his exit timeline. The Twins can start making preparations now.His gaudy HR and RBI numbers on a historically explosive offense last year obscured the reality: he was a mediocre player showing some seriously diminished skills. Rosario's .300 on-base percentage ranked as the eight-lowest among MLB hitters and his defense rated near the bottom of all outfielders.

Among 135 qualified big-league position players last year, Rosario ranked 114th in fWAR.

This was a big year for the left fielder, who knew he needed to turn around his declining performance trend and build his case for free agency. Before the season he announced his intentions to address weaknesses in the statistical categories that modern front offices care about.

"Defense, walks, OPS, those are the numbers in the game right now that are bad for me. OK. I want to try to change that. That's it," he said.

To his credit, Rosario has made definitive improvements to his plate patience. He's chasing out of the zone less, whiffing less, and has more than doubled his paltry 3.7% BB rate from a year ago. Unfortunately, this hasn't led to an uptick in overall production – quite the contrary, in fact. His OPS is down 70 points, and his defense rates as poorly as ever. The notion that last year's drop-off owed to an ankle injury hasn't been substantiated (unless the ankle is still bothering him, which is possible but hardly reaffirming). He's a below-average runner and Statcast's Outs Above Average metric places him in the 5th percentile among all fielders.
 

Download attachment: rosariostatcast97.png

His range is awful and the strong arm doesn't come close to making up for it. It all adds up to this:

Among 158 qualified big league position players this year, Rosario ranks 122nd in fWAR.

On top of this, he continues to be a maddeningly undisciplined and reckless player on the field; on Sunday he blatantly blew through a stop sign at third, getting thrown out easily to stifle a big rally, and then later watched a caromed ball sit in front of him in left field as runners circled the bases because he (wrongly) assumed it was a ground rule double. On Monday he ran into another out on the bases, attempting to stretch a double into a triple and getting thrown out by a mile.

He's doing all this for a prorated salary of $7.75 million this year, and figures to command a similar amount in 2021, his final year of arbitration. How do you justify that expense with multiple top prospects waiting in the wings behind him?

You don't. Eddie is on his way out.

So why keep feeding him everyday playing time when you could be prepping those future fixtures who do not have the benefit of playing minor-league games this year? To an extent, this becomes a moot point with Max Kepler sidelined, but if he returns – and even up until then – it would behoove the Twins to start mixing in Rosario's replacements to both get them familiar and, frankly, improve the production from left field. A bit of exposure to an intense September stretch run atmosphere in the majors could benefit Alex Kirilloff or Trevor Larnach greatly, if they are expected to be a big part of Minnesota's championship plans for 2021. Brent Rooker is of course already here, and demonstrating that it's possible to acclimate quickly from the alternate site.

I get that Rosario is a streaky player. It's entirely possible he'll get on a roll and validate his consistent nods at the heart of the batting order. But it's also very possible he won't. There's only so much time left to turn around his lackluster performance, and many underlying signs suggest that Rosario's decline is more attributable to diminishing athleticism than bad luck or the standard ebbs and flows of baseball.

The Rosie ride has been a wild one over these past six years, filled with plenty of thrills and frustrations. Now, as that ride reaches an end, it's time for the Twins to prep themselves for the future in left field.

MORE FROM TWINS DAILY
— Latest Twins coverage from our writers
— Recent Twins discussion in our forums
— Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

Click here to view the article

 

 

Kepler, Buxton, Cave. Anyone that plays outfield for the Twins has done worse than he has at the plate. Much worse in fact Buxton hasn't been on the field and still can't hit, flat out. Eddie is also 2nd on the team in RBIs, 3rd in HRs, and 2nd in OPS among our starters.

 

I get it. But a few games isn't enough to make me want to just move on. I get where you are coming from, but I just keep paying him in arbitration and ride it till we don't have him under team control. Platoon him if you must with younger players. 

 

 

[Danchat]

 

If Larnach, Rooker or Kiriloff were to put up a batting line a little below Rosario's average tripleslash, they'd likely win ROY. Much more likely, we should hope they will trend toward that level of production by year 3 of their careers.  

Rosario's career tripleslash: .277/.309/.477 (.786 OPS)

 

2019 Rookie of the Year candidates:

Yordan Alvarez .313/.412/.655 (1.067 OPS)

Brandon Lowe .270/.336/.514 (.850 OPS)

Eloy Jimenez .267/.315/.513 (.828 OPS)

Cavan Biggio .234/.364/.429 (.793 OPS)

(NL)

Pete Alonso .260/.358/.583 (.941 OPS)

Fernando Tatis Jr. .317/.379/.590 (.969 OPS)

Bryan Reynolds .314/.377/.503 (.880 OPS)

 

With a tripleslash a little below Eddie's, you would be lucky to get a single vote for ROTY. We're in the era of the juiced ball, and a .786 OPS with 32 HRs isn't as rare as it used to be.

 

 

[ashbury]

With a tripleslash a little below Eddie's, you would be lucky to get a single vote for ROTY..

Was about to post something similar^*. Eddie's been roughly an average major leaguer the last couple of years. I like him and he's not by any means at replacement level, but he's not above average either, taking his whole game into account. RoY by contrast is an extremely high bar, and the hitters who win it typically put up monster numbers for their rookie season. The worst RoY of the past 10 years was arguably Wil Myers, and he put up better OPS than Eddie has this year.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/roy.shtml

 

^{* _{And, apparently, I still will.}}

[twinbythebay]

 

Totally disagree Nick.

 

Eddie is a flawed player, but he is the Twins most talented and gifted hitter not named Cruz.

 

For example, compare his career OPS (.786) with Max Kepler's (.763). Max has done it with a very disciplined approach that seems to maximize his talent while Eddie's does even more damage with unrefined talent. I think he has another level accessible to him that he can reach as a hitter if he keeps trending toward being a more-disciplined hitter. What Eddie lacks as a hitter can come with age, experience, training. Might be time to move on from Max?

 

If Larnach, Rooker or Kiriloff were to put up a batting line a little below Rosario's average tripleslash, they'd likely win ROY. Much more likely, we should hope they will trend toward that level of production by year 3 of their careers.  

 

All that said, you'll probably get your way. Somebody has to make way for the wave of upcoming prospects and Kepler's under control 'til 2024. Prepare for an offensive drop off.

Are we watching the same team? Since the beginning of 2019, Kepler has gotten on base at a higher rate than Rosario and hit for more power than Rosario. I think it's more likely the next few seasons will look much closer to 2019-2020 in terms of their offensive production rather than 2017-2018, when Kepler was still figuring things out at the plate and Rosario outperformed him. And that's not even taking into consideration that Kepler consistently grades as one of the best defensive corner outfielders in the game, while Rosario grades as well below average defensively. There's a good reason why Falvine prioritized locking up Kepler long-term instead of Rosario, and I'm very glad that they did.

[Greglw3]

 

I agree in concept, Nick. However, I am not so sure his poor performance is a product of "diminished  skills". He still stings the ball when he gets a hit to pitch. Of course, thats not too often. While he has quit swinging at pitches 16 inches off the plate but he still swings at anything close even when he is ahead in the count. Therefore, pitchers have no reason to give him anything to hit even when they are behind. He ends up with a lot of weak contact. Most of the time when he is ahead it's because the first two pitches are no where near the zone. Then, he swings at anything close instead of getting a good pitch to hit.

 

I think he would be significantly above league average if he had average plate discipline. He has demonstrated he is either unwilling or unable to apply an approach that gets him decent pitches to hit. My guess is Rooker and Cave take his playing time next year until Kirilloff or Larnach show they are ready. At least we have Rooker for LH pitching the rest of this year.

Did you realize the compared to the league average as of 9/10/2020 that Eddie has a batting average 3 points above league average and an OPS 26 points above league average - .764 - .738 and he can improve on that. 

 

[Channing1964]

Y'know, you could make this exact same argument about Brian Dozier - team leader and well-respected in the locker room, very good hitter who hit HRs and scored lots of runs as a leadoff man, and had shaky fielding skills. The team abruptly shipped him off in 2018 as his play declined somewhat, and despite losing a player loved by the team and the fans, the 2019 offense turned out to be a historic unit without him. 

 

As I've said before, I'm not looking to replace him immediately, but it's worth wondering whether it's better giving him his arbitration money (should be around $10M), or spending that elsewhere to improve the team. It's not impossible to find a free agent or develop one of our several highly touted prospects to replace him. I could understand either retaining him or moving on form him, I think both sides are certainly defensible.

that seems a lot less harsh than the tone of the article. Its probably the way it hit me too. I find myself watching Rosario even more closely to see if he does suck as bad as it seems some people like to say. I saw him double home three runs and get thrown out going to third...that was a bonehead move. I know he gets dinged for taking chances with his arm that backfire. I dont look at the numbers as closely as some do, but i understand their value. There will come a time when his value is not worth his aggressiveness. But for now, for Christ's sake we need him and his heart. Its not his numbers we will miss, it will be his spirit. Im not saying he is the greatest, all im saying is he brings to this team what no other team would see. That and no way is anybody below him ready to replace that. Lets evaluate it after the season and meantime let him play. IMHO He is doing Aight so far. If we, as Minnesotans, fans of the Twins aren't loyal to our own guys then what message does that send to future free agents that consider coming here. I dont know, to me it's not a tangible thing.

[DocBauer]

Are we watching the same team? Since the beginning of 2019, Kepler has gotten on base at a higher rate than Rosario and hit for more power than Rosario. I think it's more likely the next few seasons will look much closer to 2019-2020 in terms of their offensive production rather than 2017-2018, when Kepler was still figuring things out at the plate and Rosario outperformed him. And that's not even taking into consideration that Kepler consistently grades as one of the best defensive corner outfielders in the game, while Rosario grades as well below average defensively. There's a good reason why Falvine prioritized locking up Kepler long-term instead of Rosario, and I'm very glad that they did.

I've already stated my love for Eddie and all the reasons why I think phasing him out NOW is a huge mistake. Also stated, for many reasons, why I think he will be back in 2021. And I am happy and good with that.

 

But I really like this post. Forgetting defense metrics, I think Kepler is the better pure hitter with as much power. And I believe Kepler has more in him.

 

Short, weird season and injuries, I would have LOVED to see some sort of combination of Arraez/Polanco at the top of the order and Kepler as the LH #4 hitter with the productive Rosario sliding down to #6 behind Polanco. It's not a slight to Eddie. It's about the top of the lineup and then staggering the lineup for greatest production and depth.

[Channing1964]

You may very well be right. Bust as the Al Davis mantra goes... "Just Win Baby!" If the Twins make the right moves that lead to a culture of winning and competing for championships (NOT just division titles) consistently, then I don't think they'll have any issues attracting and retaining talent.

 

In my personal opinion, I would put much higher priority on locking up Buxton and Berrios in the next year rather than Rosario.

and i agree 100% with that. I am afraid Buxton will never forgive Falvey for that service time bullcrap they pulled in 2018. I am thinking Berrios is too full of himself and wants to test the market. Frankly, if he were smart, he would take a deal now like Max, and Polo, and Sano did. In Rosario's case I cant see them non-tendering him...i just can't. and hope not. they might though. I have seen this FO get smarter and smarter all along. Whatever they do I'm sure will be well thought out. Its clear to me he is an important part of this team. No matter what numbers you wana toss out there.

[Channing1964]

for every numbers crunch...theres another one to equally dispute it. Eddie Rosario will never be as valuable to any other team than he us to this one. Because he grew into s major leaguer with most if these guys. Watch him play and tell me he doesnt love his team and his teammates. Has anyone ever heard him bitch about anything? I haven't. I will miss him when he leaves. And i fear thats after the 2021 season. I hope not before.

[jmlease1]

 

and i understand your point. At some juncture everyone has to make a decision on how to allocate the budget. Its Pohlads money not mine. Assuming they don't pocket every dime that is a profit, I just dont see how not keeping Rosario is going to help us. We will muss him a lot. The future is bright for sure but I will tell you this. We can kiss Buxton's A$$ goodbye and Berrios too. They aren't signing extensions. Treating loyal guys like Rosario right might seem not sensible to you. If you look at it another way, guys like Donaldson, will not want to come around if we continually screw players over that have paid their dues here through thick and thin. Another example is Trevor May. How are we going to deal with him. MLB has another problem now and it's because nobody stays on one team long enough for young fans to know and grow with the stars. Its sad. It didnt used to be that way

 

where is this idea that Eddie Rosario has somehow shown particular loyalty to the Twins? He's still an arbitration-eligible player. He hasn't taken any discounts, he hasn't passed up on anything to keep playing for the Twins.

 

I'm amazed at your certainty that we will not be able to sign Buxton or Berrios, but if we aren't able to make it happen it won't be because of declining to offer another year of arbitration to Eddie Rosario. (Considering Buxton's injury history, we may have a better chance than ever to sign Buxton to a long-term deal that buys out 1-2 years of free agency)

 

I was happy to keep Rosario for this season, because I wasn't sure the internal options were ready and the realistic FA options weren't significant upgrades in my mind. Plus, there was hope that recovery from the nagging injuries might improve Eddie's defense. But the reality is, the defense hasn't improved: his range and glove are not good. The arm is still excellent, but there are fewer opportunity to influence a game with your arm from LF than your glove. His bat is still fine, especially in this COVID season where hitting is down all over the place...but it's hardly elite. So when it comes to making the call next year you've got an increasingly expensive player with declining defensive skills that is not improving at the plate a track record of terrible base-running who plays one of the most replaceable positions in baseball.

 

It's not about hating Rosario. It's about paycheck vs production. The more a player makes, the less you can ignore their flaws. The more a player makes, the fewer flaws you can accept. And as exciting as Eddie Rosario is, and as many big splash plays as he might make...he also has a lot of botches.

 

I'm not going to pretend that Rooker or Kirilloff or Larnach is going to be able to replace Rosario's production right now (Rooker is doing better at the plate, but it's a very small sample); they might, but it's a much riskier bet. We know what we're going to get from Eddie, and it's not worth a 10-15% increase against a potential 50% decline in production when it's also not going to save you any money either.

 

Roll with Eddie this season. Probably move along next year with thanks for his service. (The $13M he's made should help make him feel ok about his time here too)

[Channing1964]

Im not the FO, the Manager or the CEO, but dont you think if they wanted to phase him out or non tender him after this year the the lineup would reflect that? Again I just watch the games. I dont pore over the spreadsheets. Rosatio is without a doubt the primary left fielder. I say that because he is in the lineup every day. Except of course for the scheduled days off that every regular gets. Hate him if you want but i highly doubt he is going anywhere until after 2021. As far as questioning his loyalty...go ahead and do that too. What would it say about Our loyalty to non tender him. 10-12 million is a rip off compared to what he could get on the open market.

[stringer bell]

I've resisted comment here on this topic because I think it's complicated. No one statistic is the magic bullet and Eddie Rosario is a big league talent, without question. It makes no sense to me to bench him, reduce his role, or diminish his playing time with two and a half weeks to go. That certainly seems to be the consensus of those posting on this thread and I agree wholeheartedly. Eddie's best skill is as a run producer. We can have the debate about the value of RBIs, but Rosario wants (I think more than most) to be the guy at the plate when a big hit will change the game and he has produced on balance. 

 

Eddie is not a patient hitter. While he is chasing less, he still gets in "swing mode" quite often and will swing at everything, usually making contact, but not often enough making solid contact. His OBP and slugging are in the average range for a corner outfielder. I see nothing in the advanced metrics that predicts that he will be better than that. Defensively, his metrics are somewhere between average and poor.

 

My eyes tell me he's covering more ground this year in the field than he did in the second half last year, but he seems to come up short on making great defensive plays more often than not. The arm is strong, but too often the throw goes to the wrong base. Also, it must be considered how many outs he has cost on the bases. I think it is far more than the extra bases he might have taken, so his base running is also a net minus. 

 

All of these factors result in a WAR that is mediocre. Is WAR a perfect stat? I don't think so, but it tries to give a comprehensive look at the overall value of the player. Also, as noted, Rosario has diminished value since his best year, 2018. Eddie's value doesn't match his salary and the projected salary he would get as an arb-eligible player next year. The Twins have at least three players who project to be better offensive players than Eddie (Kirilloff, Larnach and Rooker) and any of them would cost pennies of the dollar compared to Rosario in 2021. I believe one or more of the three will be ready for full-time major league duty next year, and if that is the case, it is time to say good bye to Rosario.