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The Time Has Come to Begin Phasing Out Eddie Rosario


Nick Nelson

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I have been lower on Rosario than some but I still think the Twins keep him next year unless they can work out a trade.  I just don't think DFA'ing him makes sense.  He is improving his chase and walk rate and while he isn't hitting the ball as hard as we would like he is still getting his fair share of HR's  I could see him splitting time with some of the young guys next year but he is still a valuable veteran and this team will still be in the think of things in the central.  I really like Larnach and Kirillof but who knows how they would adjust or be ready next year.  Kirillof has had plenty of injury issue's and Larnach hasn't been tested above AA so I still think keeping Eddi around for one more year makes sense.

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I have been lower on Rosario than some but I still think the Twins keep him next year unless they can work out a trade.  I just don't think DFA'ing him makes sense.  He is improving his chase and walk rate and while he isn't hitting the ball as hard as we would like he is still getting his fair share of HR's  I could see him splitting time with some of the young guys next year but he is still a valuable veteran and this team will still be in the think of things in the central.  I really like Larnach and Kirillof but who knows how they would adjust or be ready next year.  Kirillof has had plenty of injury issue's and Larnach hasn't been tested above AA so I still think keeping Eddi around for one more year makes sense.

 

I think is exactly how it would go if we did not have a pandemic this year. There are going to be a ton of non-tenders and Rosario fits the profile. I could actually see the Twins non-tendering him and picking up a free agent RH outfielder. 

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Defending Rosario with thinly veiled accusations of racism is hilarious. Nick posted the screenshot from MLB savant. The only thing Rosario is above average at is striking out. These are no longer just numbers but actually physical measureables. He isn’t making hard contact, swings at pitches outside the zone, isn’t a great fielder and makes idiotic mistakes.

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I see what you're alleging here, but if you're going to make that point, you had better come with some better receipts than that. You accuse people of cherry picking stats, to make Rosario look bad, but then you use a 6 game sample to back up your point?

 

Also, let's go ahead and compare him to Kepler: Kepler doesn't run himself into outs on the basepaths consistently like Rosario does, he doesn't throw to the wrong base nearly as often as Rosario does, and he has much better range (when healthy) than Rosario does. And Kepler's fWAR in 2019 was more than three times higher than Rosario's! Sure, Rosario had more RBI than Kepler, but that's very much a function of Rosario always hitting in the heart of a great lineup where he had a ton of RBI opportunities vs. Kepler most often hitting leadoff. That's precisely why we tend to look at things like WAR instead of RBI when we're trying to predict future performance.

 

I can understand the argument that he's a "glue guy" in the clubhouse, but it seems to me that the author provided plenty of solid numbers to show why the Twins should part with Eddie, and you're the one that's basing your argument on emotion.

Sounds like fWAR is a dubious statistic. Keplers batting ave was lower and he only had 4 more homers and Eddie doesn’t run into outs consistently. First of all, all major leaguers do it from time to time and maybe Eddie is in the 60th percentile but consistently. No. Take all his times on base and do the math. It’s probably less than 5% of plays when he’s on base.

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Is there a stat tracked ranking players with opportunities with men on base? I found that Rosario has runners on (any base) in 44% of his PAs, but I have no idea what to compare that too. Any suggestions would be appreciated.

 

Also, I'll state what I've said before: Rosario is a streaky 1.5 - 3 WAR corner OF who provides quality clutch hitting, but makes too many boneheaded mistakes. I just wish Rocco could get to him and cut out some of the gaffes. He's not irreplaceable, but not a guy who should be abandoned ASAP. With the current prospect talent at OF (Krilioff / Rooker (probably 1B tho) / Larnach / Sabato), it's pretty clear they won't be giving him an extension. But he certainly might be back in 2021 under his arb. price.

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Sounds like fWAR is a dubious statistic. Keplers batting ave was lower and he only had 4 more homers and Eddie doesn’t run into outs consistently. First of all, all major leaguers do it from time to time and maybe Eddie is in the 60th percentile but consistently. No. Take all his times on base and do the math. It’s probably less than 5% of plays when he’s on base.

 

Pretty simple why Kepler was way better last year as reflected in fWAR.

 

Better hitter - OPS 55 points higher, from more walks and better power.

 

Vastly superior fielder, since he has great range in outfield and poor range from Rosario.

 

Better hitter and way better fielder combine for much better player.

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Sounds like fWAR is a dubious statistic. Keplers batting ave was lower and he only had 4 more homers and Eddie doesn’t run into outs consistently. First of all, all major leaguers do it from time to time and maybe Eddie is in the 60th percentile but consistently. No. Take all his times on base and do the math. It’s probably less than 5% of plays when he’s on base.

WAR is a comprehensive calculation that attempts to take a bunch of different statistics and combine them into one number to show a player's overall worth. It was developed by people much smarter than you or me, and it's pretty silly to just wave it away without knowing anything about it. Using batting average, home runs, and RBI as your primary evaluation of a player was outdated as of like 20 years ago. And it looks like you just made up a bunch of numbers to try to prove your point?

 

If you're interested, you can read about fWAR here:

https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/

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Defending Rosario with thinly veiled accusations of racism is hilarious. Nick posted the screenshot from MLB savant. The only thing Rosario is above average at is striking out. These are no longer just numbers but actually physical measureables. He isn’t making hard contact, swings at pitches outside the zone, isn’t a great fielder and makes idiotic mistakes.

Just to clarify, that Baseball Savant screenshot indicates that Rosario strikes out much less than the average MLBer. He's actually very good at making contact, whether the ball is in the zone or not, it's just that he swings at so much crap out of the zone and it often results in weak contact, as indicated by his terrible Hard Hit Rate.

 

It's fun when Eddie hits home runs off of pitches up at his chin level, but those swings much more often result in weak pop-ups.

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Is there a stat tracked ranking players with opportunities with men on base? I found that Rosario has runners on (any base) in 44% of his PAs, but I have no idea what to compare that too. Any suggestions would be appreciated.

 

Also, I'll state what I've said before: Rosario is a streaky 1.5 - 3 WAR corner OF who provides quality clutch hitting, but makes too many boneheaded mistakes. I just wish Rocco could get to him and cut out some of the gaffes. He's not irreplaceable, but not a guy who should be abandoned ASAP. With the current prospect talent at OF (Krilioff / Rooker (probably 1B tho) / Larnach / Sabato), it's pretty clear they won't be giving him an extension. But he certainly might be back in 2021 under his arb. price.

You can use the Fangraphs Splits Leaderboard. It's incredibly useful, and you can slice and dice the stats in pretty much any way you could think of. You can look at it at an individual player level, team level, or league level. Here's a link that shows the performance of Twins hitters in 2020 with runners on base:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=203,58&splitArrPitch=&position=B&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=player&statgroup=2&startDate=2020-03-01&endDate=2020-11-01&players=&filter=&groupBy=season&sort=10,1

 

The only player who has had more plate appearances than Rosario with runners on base this season is Polanco, and to Rosario's credit, he has performed pretty well in those situations. He also has the most plate appearances on the team with runners in scoring position, and he led the team plate appearances in both of those categories in 2019 as well. This goes a long way in explaining how he has more RBI than guys like Cruz, Sano, or Kepler, who are indisputably better hitters.

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I agree with those that have argued that the time has come for the Twins to part ways with Rosario at the conclusion of this season.  I've been saying this for a long time, but today's 2nd game was a perfect microcosm of why Rosario needs to go.  0 for 4, not a shock, but I know in his final 3 AB's he saw a GRAND TOTAL of 7 pitches.  Leading 2-0 after Rooker HR, a Donaldson double and 4 pitch walk brought Rosario to the plate in a key spot.  What does Eddie do?  Takes 1 pitch for a ball and then can't help himself in 1-0 count and swings at a ball high and inside and pops out.  BAD AB.  Next time up, I think, same situation----swings at 1st pitch and hits a weak groundball turned into an out, but it did advance runners to 2nd and 3rd.  Final AB, saw--oh boy--four pitches and AGAIN---swinging to hit the Arch, he lofted another weak flyball out.  I posted the other day, but Eddie is first and foremost--ALL ABOUT EDDIE.  Thats his sole concern and focus.  His continued refusal to work a count in his favor in key spots to get a good pitch to hit is enough of a reason to cut bait with him.  

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I came over since you are playing my team and saddened by my childhood favourite ballplayer, Lou Brock, dying.

 

Eddie Rosario reminds me of Moustakas. I thought he was on his way of being groomed as your second baseman someday, but, obviously his defense or another player put him back in the OF.

 

Last year he received an MVP vote like who would DFAd him after 45 games or at the end of this whacky season? His OPS is around .800 though I don't believe it would be as high in the NL because we have some ballparks that are are fair to pitchers as Yankee stadium is a joke and the AL Central last year was awful with the Tigers, Royals and White Sox.

 

One more year or some prospects that will pan out or a QO after next season. But, like several FAs he may go all out and have a .880+ OPS season instead of a .780-.800 season and you wonder what is he going to command on the open market when he declines your Qualifying Offer.

 

Look at the Moose's start with Cincinnati. They gave him a big contract to play in that HR happy park and I'm sure the fans will likely stay frustrated.

 

If Rosario had the intensity like Pete Rose, who does as Rose drank a lot of leaded coffee which is why he ran down to first base when he walked in the old days, he would definitely get higher MVP votes.

 

His boneheaded plays get pointed out by fans which is what lack of focus or intensity? Rose is a bad example, but, he was the most intense player in his day. My Lou Brock when he stole 118 in 1974 at age 35 when I was 9 was the most intense and intimidating player that year as Rose had a slight offseason before leading the Big Red Machine to 2 titles.

 

Intensity, Eddie. You can make a lot of money. Rose didn't know when to let up as his outside life caught up to him. No way is he DFAd or if you trade him you will have seller's regrets.

 

Those awful long term contracts might bite too.

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I don't see Rosario as being part of the future, but other than making the people pulling their hair out over his baserunning mistakes, not really sure what we accomplish by trying to phase him out now, considering the injury status we have and this goofy short season. Rooker, Wade, and Cave are all contributing, but none of them are setting the world on fire. (Rooker is the only one out-hitting Rosario, and it's too small a sample to rely on yet and his defense is also...poor. Cave & Wade are better defensively than Rosario (better range, poorer arm) but neither is hitting well.) So there's no one that clearly deserves to take Rosario's place when Kepler gets back.

 

Next season? I've always thought he was gone. The hitting has declined this year, the defense is just as bad as last year and he's going to get more expensive because MLB arbitration rewards experience over production. He's a great guy, been fun to watch, and is clearly MLB-calibre, but he's now at that point where his salary probably outstrips his skills. 

 

Cron is a fair comp in a lot of ways. TB made the decision previously on him that a) he wasn't worth the $5M he was gonna get, and B) they could replace his production with a younger, cheaper player. They weren't entirely wrong. Cron was a below average starter last year...is that worth $5M? maybe? Were they able to replace his production? Sure did. Choi was slightly better and made just under $1M. (I'm using bWAR btw)

 

I think the run is over for the Twins for Eddie, because they're not going to want to pay him $8M+ next year for a guy that's going to project as a 2 bWAR player when they have a bunch of top hitting talent in the wings. There's no point to moving on now, but when the season ends, the Twins will reasonably move on.

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Is there a stat tracked ranking players with opportunities with men on base? I found that Rosario has runners on (any base) in 44% of his PAs, but I have no idea what to compare that too. Any suggestions would be appreciated.

Someone's already posted a useful link to Fangraphs. My go-to is baseball-reference.com, and they provide a "splits" page for each player and also MLB-wide (among other options):

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=rosared01&year=2020&t=b#all_bases

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=MLB&year=2020#all_bases

 

They don't provide ready-made percentages, but a quick bit of division gives Eddie having someone on base in 44.77% of his plate appearances, versus a 44.04% across the majors, this year. Basically league average, and his opportunity is high because he's got a lot of plate appearances.

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You can use the Fangraphs Splits Leaderboard. It's incredibly useful, and you can slice and dice the stats in pretty much any way you could think of. You can look at it at an individual player level, team level, or league level. Here's a link that shows the performance of Twins hitters in 2020 with runners on base:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=203,58&splitArrPitch=&position=B&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=player&statgroup=2&startDate=2020-03-01&endDate=2020-11-01&players=&filter=&groupBy=season&sort=10,1

 

The only player who has had more plate appearances than Rosario with runners on base this season is Polanco, and to Rosario's credit, he has performed pretty well in those situations. He also has the most plate appearances on the team with runners in scoring position, and he led the team plate appearances in both of those categories in 2019 as well. This goes a long way in explaining how he has more RBI than guys like Cruz, Sano, or Kepler, who are indisputably better hitters.

Took a look at the link, thanks.

 

What I found most interesting was how well Arraez does. Kid is just flat out amazing. Hopefully, his knee will be better come playoff time. Unfortunately, got a feeling fixing it may have to wait until winter.

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Now that the season is in the middle(or lower half) I knew somebody at Twins daily would have to break out their "Rosario Hater" file and say something. I wonder who leads the MLB in outfield assists? I guarantee you Merrifield will never try to test Rosario's arm again. The other night Sano hit a homerun as i watched the game and I swear I heard Bremer say "He has just tied Rosario for second on the team with homerun number 9. Yeah ....dang I wish we could get someone to take him off our hands. Whenever they win, they have a sort of team celebration in the clubhouse and whoever is deemed de-facto star of that game gets a game ball. (a la a winning football locker room) Im not sure but I believe it was started by Torii Hunter. Remember him? A lot of us do. The torch was passed to Escobar, then Mauer(who, if you dig deep did an incredible job at it), and then guess who? Not Cruz. Not Sano. Not Kepler, and not Polanco. It IS Rosario. One of my earlier posts i said he was a team leader. Somebody pushed back ...Eddie Rosario IS a leader on this team and he will be here at least until after 2021 trust me. And we will miss him when he is gone. I have seen all i need to see of Brent Rooker in the outfield. Lets leave Eddie alone because he is what he is. A vital member of a damn good team. Nobody in St.Paul, Rochester, or Pensacola can carry his bat bag.

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This is not a reaction to yesterday's game, or the last week, which is why much broader statistics were used to make the case that Rosario has been a sub par contributor dating back to last year. 

And no, if Kepler would've done the same the article would not have been published since, A: Kepler is under contract for several years, not a non-tender candidate in the offseason; and B: Kepler was arguably the team's most valuable player last year, Rosario probably not in the top ten. 

 

For your talk about "cherry-picking categories" (I literally shared his entire Statcast profile, which is almost all below average, and fWAR which is an all-consuming performance metric) you sure seem to be zeroing in on non-existent argument here and ignoring the one that was actually made. This ain't about the "eye test." Look at the numbers. They speak for themselves.

i guess we just dont understand why you would go to all the trouble to smash on one dude that has been a loyal Twin his whole career. I understand you think you have valid evidence to back up your claims. My point is this, Why? Why now? What is motivating you? Sometimes my friend you have to take into account all the other factors that cannot be found in the analytical numbers. What may happen to people like Sano, Polanco, Adrianza, Buxton, and Kepler if Eddie is dissed out of the organization? What message would THAT send? I am all for the value of analytics. Now that we can all embrace it and recognize its importance let us not forget the human elements of the game of Baseball. I guarantee you Baldelli understands it. For those of us that have played the game we understand. The players are not robots they are people too. Eddie Rosario will not be easy to replace. Maybe his numbers will, but Eddie, the teammate, the Twin will be missed a great deal.
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I think Eddy is gone after this year but I doubt they do much in terms of cutting his playing time until then.  Maybe Rooker gets some days vs lefties and Rosario gets the Rocco rest days more. 

 

I like the fire he plays with but he just doesn't produce enough to warrant a long term contract, he is pretty much a cannon arm and and empty 20-30 hrs if he wasn't hitting 4th/5th.  The patient thing this year is silly to me, he still has a terrible obp, still routinely swings wild at pitches way out of the zone, and still has poor awareness to whatever the situation is around him. 

 

I think they try and trade him, though he probably doesn't return much.  If they just let him walk I wonder if he ends up in Cle to fill one of their outfield holes.

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Now that the season is in the middle(or lower half) I knew somebody at Twins daily would have to break out their "Rosario Hater" file and say something. I wonder who leads the MLB in outfield assists?

It's not Eddie Rosario. He's in a six-way tie for 4th place in outfield assists in 2020 with 4 (Alex Verdugo leads MLB with 7). In 2019, he was in a seven-way tie for 12th place in MLB with 8.

 

In terms of UZR/150, which is a (admittedly imperfect) stat that uses data related to a fielder's range and arm, adjusted for external factors, Rosario graded out as the 7th worst outfielder in MLB in 2019 and 13th worst so far in 2020. This stat doesn't necessarily tell the whole story, as defensive ability is notoriously difficult to quantify, but it provides a more complete picture than simply looking at assists. The "eye test" of Rosario as a fielder differs wildly depending on who you ask, but by the numbers, Rosario has been well below average defensively for the past two seasons. I don't think most Twins fans "hate" Rosario, I certainly don't. He's incredibly fun to watch, but he's just as often incredibly frustrating. Setting all emotions aside, the statistics say that he's around a league average hitter, and below average defender, and guys like that just aren't that hard to replace at a much lower cost than what Rosario will be making next year.

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Took a look at the link, thanks.

 

What I found most interesting was how well Arraez does. Kid is just flat out amazing. Hopefully, his knee will be better come playoff time. Unfortunately, got a feeling fixing it may have to wait until winter.

Yeah, Aaron Gleeman has said that it's the type of injury that will probably require some sort of surgical cleanup in the offseason, but since there's not a lot of risk of him injuring it further, it's something he can play through until then. It's just a matter of how painful it is for him and whether or not it affects how he plays. Although his average and OBP are still pretty good this year, it seems like the injury has sapped most of his power, and it looks like it has hurt his range at 2B as well. I'm looking forward to a (hopefully) fully healthy Arraez returning next season and competing for a batting title.

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Yeah I bet you dont hope he winds up in Cleveland. If he does he will haunt you and the rest if the non believers fir at least 19 times a year for 5 years. Why doesnt anyone wanna pick on Berrios? or Sano? or Garver? for example...dude had one good year...won silver slugger at catcher...this year he sucks. What does Rosario have to do? Hes been here since 2015 FULL TIME. ahead of Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Garver,maybe Polanco, maybe even Berrios. Is anybody serious when they say bottom line, all around, we are better off with Rooker, Kiriloff, or Larnach out in left? are you fu€*ing kidding me? Obviously nobody in the organization shares this belief. Why dont we try and focus on what is right instead of sniping at someone who has done nothing but bust his ass for us and be proud to be one of us.

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It's not Eddie Rosario. He's in a six-way tie for 4th place in outfield assists in 2020 with 4 (Alex Verdugo leads MLB with 7). In 2019, he was in a seven-way tie for 12th place in MLB with 8.

 

In terms of UZR/150, which is a (admittedly imperfect) stat that uses data related to a fielder's range and arm, adjusted for external factors, Rosario graded out as the 7th worst outfielder in MLB in 2019 and 13th worst so far in 2020. This stat doesn't necessarily tell the whole story, as defensive ability is notoriously difficult to quantify, but it provides a more complete picture than simply looking at assists. The "eye test" of Rosario as a fielder differs wildly depending on who you ask, but by the numbers, Rosario has been well below average defensively for the past two seasons. I don't think most Twins fans "hate" Rosario, I certainly don't. He's incredibly fun to watch, but he's just as often incredibly frustrating. Setting all emotions aside, the statistics say that he's around a league average hitter, and below average defender, and guys like that just aren't that hard to replace at a much lower cost than what Rosario will be making next year.

I get it....you think we'd be better off without him. Is every Twin the best at their position compared to the whole league? Im sure not. I personally dont understand why anyone all of a sudden wants him gone. You, yourself know he will be next to Impossible to trade. Not because of his true value but because of his contract status. There is NOBODY in mlb that drives in 100+ runs and hits 30+ bombs on a division winning team that makes less than 10 mil a year? This is insanity. Im 56 years old and i watched Rooker botch a play the other day so bad against detroit that they could never call it an error. He NEVER got close enough! I would have made that play! Be careful what you wish for. When your microscope is on Rosario you are missing all the little defensive lapses that Polanco, Arraez, Gonzalez, and Sano make. Maybe we can get Carlos Gomez back and see how you like it. He does bat righty. I am with whoever said "what will we complain about when Eddie's gone" Some of us remember 1995, and 1982, and even 2016. This is just fine with me.
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Yeah I bet you dont hope he winds up in Cleveland. If he does he will haunt you and the rest if the non believers fir at least 19 times a year for 5 years. Why doesnt anyone wanna pick on Berrios? or Sano? or Garver? for example...dude had one good year...won silver slugger at catcher...this year he sucks. What does Rosario have to do? Hes been here since 2015 FULL TIME. ahead of Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Garver,maybe Polanco, maybe even Berrios. Is anybody serious when they say bottom line, all around, we are better off with Rooker, Kiriloff, or Larnach out in left? are you fu€*ing kidding me? Obviously nobody in the organization shares this belief. Why dont we try and focus on what is right instead of sniping at someone who has done nothing but bust his ass for us and be proud to be one of us.

A lot of the focus on Rosario has to do with his contract situation. He was set to make $7.75 million this season (before the adjustment for the shortened season), and next year is his last year of arbitration, where he will likely be owed $8 million or more. Mitch Garver was only due $620,000 this season, and will enter arbitration for the first time next season. I don't know all that much about how arbitration works, but I don't think he'll be owed nearly as much as Eddie. Berrios was set to make just over $4 million this season, which was his first year of arbitration, and Sano is locked up under contract through 2023.

 

Like it or not, this stuff is a part of the equation around whether or not a player should be kept around or sent packing. He is most likely a better player than Rooker, Kiriloff, or Larnach right now, but he's also making over 10 times what those guys would be making next season. If the Twins decide that really like Rosario and want to keep him around, then they'll pay him that money, but you have to weigh the cost against his benefits and decide whether or not that money would be better spent making upgrades elsewhere on the roster.

 

Like I said before, I don't hate Rosario, and he can be fun to watch. But I want the Twins to spend wisely (since we've seen that they don't always spend as much as they should), and if the team would be improved by spending that money elsewhere, then I hope that's what they do.

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I get it....you think we'd be better off without him. Is every Twin the best at their position compared to the whole league? Im sure not. I personally dont understand why anyone all of a sudden wants him gone. You, yourself know he will be next to Impossible to trade. Not because of his true value but because of his contract status. There is NOBODY in mlb that drives in 100+ runs and hits 30+ bombs on a division winning team that makes less than 10 mil a year? This is insanity. Im 56 years old and i watched Rooker botch a play the other day so bad against detroit that they could never call it an error. He NEVER got close enough! I would have made that play! Be careful what you wish for. When your microscope is on Rosario you are missing all the little defensive lapses that Polanco, Arraez, Gonzalez, and Sano make. Maybe we can get Carlos Gomez back and see how you like it. He does bat righty. I am with whoever said "what will we complain about when Eddie's gone" Some of us remember 1995, and 1982, and even 2016. This is just fine with me.

What are we all on here for, if not to complain about the team?  :)

 

I understand, the negativity can be a bit much sometimes, but I, for one, really enjoy discussing and debating what the Twins could/should do to improve and win another g*damn World Series. I think this site would be incredibly boring if everyone was just a Twins cheerleader and never questioned what the team was doing or offered suggestions for improvement.

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and i understand your point. At some juncture everyone has to make a decision on how to allocate the budget. Its Pohlads money not mine. Assuming they don't pocket every dime that is a profit, I just dont see how not keeping Rosario is going to help us. We will muss him a lot. The future is bright for sure but I will tell you this. We can kiss Buxton's A$$ goodbye and Berrios too. They aren't signing extensions. Treating loyal guys like Rosario right might seem not sensible to you. If you look at it another way, guys like Donaldson, will not want to come around if we continually screw players over that have paid their dues here through thick and thin. Another example is Trevor May. How are we going to deal with him. MLB has another problem now and it's because nobody stays on one team long enough for young fans to know and grow with the stars. Its sad. It didnt used to be that way

Edited by Channing1964
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What are we all on here for, if not to complain about the team?  :)

 

I understand, the negativity can be a bit much sometimes, but I, for one, really enjoy discussing and debating what the Twins could/should do to improve and win another g*damn World Series. I think this site would be incredibly boring if everyone was just a Twins cheerleader and never questioned what the team was doing or offered suggestions for improvement.

point taken...im sorry i just love Rosario...despite his faults. lol
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