Twins 6, Tigers 2: Pineda Pitches 7 Innings, Twins Take 4 of 5

[Andrew Thares]

In his second start back with the club, Michael Pineda held the Tigers to two runs on three hits over seven innings pitched, eclipsing the 100-pitch mark in the process. The Twins beat Detroit on a cold, wet day at Target Field, giving them wins in four of the five games this series.Box Score

Pineda: 7.0 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 8 K

Home Runs: Jeffers (1), Buxton (6)

Top 3 WPA: Pineda .226, Jeffers .156, Rosario .150

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs):

Download attachment: Winchart.png

 

The story of the game today was the Twins getting yet another impressive performance on the mound from Michael Pineda. After impressing in his first start back from his suspension, Pineda was even better today, going seven strong innings, allowing just two runs on just three hits and two walks, while striking out eight. Of his seven innings pitched, four of them were 1-2-3 innings. This was a great time for a Twins starter to go deep into the game, as the bullpen got worked pretty hard in yesterday’s game, and they will need to be fresh for tomorrow’s doubleheader in St. Louis.

 

Ryan Jeffers got the scoring started in the third with a one out blast to straight away center field. For Jeffers, it was a statement home run coming off the bat a scorching 111.3 MPH. It was not only Jeffers first career MLB home run, but also his first career MLB extra base hit. It will likely be the first of many from a catch the possess power rarely seen from the catching position.

 

 

The Twins were not done score after that, however, as LaMonte Wade got a one out rally started with a bloop double in the very next at-bat. Josh Donaldson and Brent Rooker followed that up with a walk and an opposite field single to load the bases for Eddie Rosario. After a Tigers pitching change, Rosario proceeded to come through with this bases clearing double.

 

 

For the second consecutive day, Eddie Rosario made a stupid base running mistake that likely cost the Twins runs early in the game. This over aggressiveness has been a trend with Rosario throughout his career, but unlike in his early years, the excuse of Rosario still being inexperienced is gone. By this point, you would expect a veteran leader on your team to play smarter baseball than that.

 

The Twins were able to play small ball to scratch across another run in the fifth. Jake Cave got the inning going with a one-out bunt single to beat the shift. Cave was then able to advance to second on an Ehire Adrianza groundout. This gave Ryan Jeffers another chance to come up big in this game, and he did just that, as he hit a groundball single just under the glove of a diving Jonathan Schoop into the outfield, bringing Cave around to score the Twins fifth run of the ballgame.

 

Cody Stashak made his return from the injured list, after being out since August 11th with a lower back injury. It wasn’t the cleanest of outings from Stashak, as he allowed a rare walk, but in the end he got the job done, and maintained the Twins 5-2 lead.

 

It was a strong day at the plate for Byron Buxton. In the sixth, he hit a hard groundball back up the middle that deflected off the glove of Tigers pitcher Daniel Norris past the infield shift, and trickled into the outfield. About as soon as you thought that was a good luck single, Buxton was standing on second, as he was hustling out of the box, and used his world class speed to turn his good fortune into what will look like a flyball in the gap in the box score. Buxton didn’t need any good fortune in his next at-bat, as he blasted this no-doubter into the second deck.

 

 

Even though it was no longer a save situation, Taylor Rogers still came in in the ninth, as he was already warmed up. It was undoubtably the most impressive outing for Rogers on the season, as he struck out the side to close out the Twins 6-2 victory. Hopefully, this is the outing that Rogers needed to get things going back in the right direct as we head into the final weeks of the regular season.

 

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

Download attachment: Bullpen.png

 

Postgame Pint

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[USAFChief]

Really nice to have an effective Pineda back in the rotation.

[mikelink45]

love Pineda and Jeffers and Wade and Rooker - give me the young guys to go with this older pitching leader.

[adjacent]

Now that he is getting more confident, I am impressed by Wade. He does al the fundamentals right. He doesn't have a lot of power, but seeings his at bats is a pleasure.And in the field he isn't bad either. 

[rdehring]

I must take exception, Andrew, to your comment..."Eddie Rosario made a stupid base running mistake that likely cost the Twins runs early in the game." And to be honest, I am surprised that a writer at Twins Daily would make such a comment.

 

Yes, like most of us I cringed when Eddie was caught short of third getting into a run down for a second straight day. But then I listened to Justin Morneau explaining how the situation developed. Rosario was slowing as he approached second, at which time he saw Diaz waiving the runner ahead of him home. With the throw likely going home, it made sense to get to third with only one out.

 

Yes, the outfielder threw to third and Rosie was caught in the run down. But Justin certainly didn't seem to think it was a bad decision. When the camera showed Rosario getting to the dugout his teammates also didn't seem to appear to think it was stupid as they patted him on the back and gave him high 5's.

[h2oface]

4-4 against Detriot (so far) and 5-5 against KC. I just can't get thrilled about it. We really needed to sweep them to take this division back. I doubt we can win it going .500 for 20 games (1/3) of this short season, against the two worst teams in the division.

[h2oface]

More interesting to me, and I can't tell from the video or watching the game, did Diaz signal Eddie to advance from second, or did he signal to stop. If Eddie blew through another signal for a second consecutive day......... but if it was Diaz's decision..... maybe Diaz was too busy to get to Eddie?

any help here?

[AceWrigley]

A very satisfying win.

[stringer bell]

The outfielder threw towards home and the ball was cut off. Often a runner will sacrifice himself to assure a runner scores, but that wasn’t really the case. This certainly wasn’t as stupid/foolish as running through a stop sign with nobody out, but on balance it wasn’t very smart.

[Twodogs]

I know it's from the old book, but the old adage is not to make the 1st and 3rd outs at 3rd base. Because if he makes it then a fly ball scores him. So I don't think anyone on the twins staff was really upset about today. Had yesterday not happened we probably wouldn't even be talking about it.

 

Man it was nice to see a pitcher throw 7 innings for once. I was shocked when I heard that it was only the 2nd time a twins pitcher had pitched into the 7th inning this year.

 

Lamont Wade is making a nice name for himself. Looking like he could be Jake Cave's replacement in the future? Don't wish anything bad on Cave, but if Wade keeps doing well he has to take someone's spot.

[USAFChief]

More interesting to me, and I can't tell from the video or watching the game, did Diaz signal Eddie to advance from second, or did he signal to stop. If Eddie blew through another signal for a second consecutive day......... but if it was Diaz's decision..... maybe Diaz was too busy to get to Eddie?

any help here?

a baserunner is on his own in that situation, even with the ball behind him. The 3rd base coach will be focused in the runner rounding 3rd. Eddie has plenty of time to pick up the ball as he approaches and rounds 2nd.

[USAFChief]

The outfielder threw towards home and the ball was cut off. Often a runner will sacrifice himself to assure a runner scores, but that wasn’t really the case. This certainly wasn’t as stupid/foolish as running through a stop sign with nobody out, but on balance it wasn’t very smart.

Yup.

[Tom Froemming]

 

I must take exception, Andrew, to your comment..."Eddie Rosario made a stupid base running mistake that likely cost the Twins runs early in the game." And to be honest, I am surprised that a writer at Twins Daily would make such a comment.

 

Yes, like most of us I cringed when Eddie was caught short of third getting into a run down for a second straight day. But then I listened to Justin Morneau explaining how the situation developed. Rosario was slowing as he approached second, at which time he saw Diaz waiving the runner ahead of him home. With the throw likely going home, it made sense to get to third with only one out.

 

Yes, the outfielder threw to third and Rosie was caught in the run down. But Justin certainly didn't seem to think it was a bad decision. When the camera showed Rosario getting to the dugout his teammates also didn't seem to appear to think it was stupid as they patted him on the back and gave him high 5's.

 

I thought it was stupid, too. Advancing from second to third isn't worth the risk of recording the second out of the inning there. He shouldn't have strayed so far off second so he could return once he realized the throw wasn't going into the plate.

 

Here are the run expectancy numbers:

 

Runner at second, one out (what should have happened): 0.644

Runner at third, one out (what Rosie was going for): 0.865

Nobody on, two outs (what happened): 0.095

 

So Rosario to a risk that would have gained .221 in run expectancy and it ended up costing .549 in run expectancy. That is stupid to me.

 

I took Justin's comments as more explaining what went down rather than justifying the decision. I'm sure the high fives were more for clearing the bases, but Eddie also got fist bumps and high fives in the dugout after he blew through a stop sign and was thrown out the other day, so I wouldn't read too much into that.

[JoshDungan1]

That Wade pick at first base was incredible. There are regular first basemen that would miss that one and he was just thrown out there today with likely the worst weather we've played in all season to boot and he didn't seem to have any issues.

[Twodogs]

I thought it was stupid, too. Advancing from second to third isn't worth the risk of recording the second out of the inning there. He shouldn't have strayed so far off second so he could return once he realized the throw wasn't going into the plate.

 

Here are the run expectancy numbers:

 

Runner at second, one out (what should have happened): 0.644

Runner at third, one out (what Rosie was going for): 0.865

Nobody on, two outs (what happened): 0.095

 

So Rosario to a risk that would have gained .221 in run expectancy and it ended up costing .549 in run expectancy. That is stupid to me.

 

I took Justin's comments as more explaining what went down rather than justifying the decision. I'm sure the high fives were more for clearing the bases, but Eddie also got fist bumps and high fives in the dugout after he blew through a stop sign and was thrown out the other day, so I wouldn't read too much into that.

Yeah, Morneau might have been saying that that out at third isn't necessarily uncommon, but running over your base coach to blow through his sign probably is a little uncommon?

[Dantes929]

Replay doesn't show how easily Rooker scored.     I think it was ok for Eddie to think a double would not easily score an average speed at best guy from 1st and that there would either be a play at the plate or he might draw the throw and eliminate the possibility of a play at the plate.   T

 

I thought it was stupid, too. Advancing from second to third isn't worth the risk of recording the second out of the inning there. He shouldn't have strayed so far off second so he could return once he realized the throw wasn't going into the plate.

 

Here are the run expectancy numbers:

 

Runner at second, one out (what should have happened): 0.644

Runner at third, one out (what Rosie was going for): 0.865

Nobody on, two outs (what happened): 0.095

 

So Rosario to a risk that would have gained .221 in run expectancy and it ended up costing .549 in run expectancy. That is stupid to me.

 

I took Justin's comments as more explaining what went down rather than justifying the decision. I'm sure the high fives were more for clearing the bases, but Eddie also got fist bumps and high fives in the dugout after he blew through a stop sign and was thrown out the other day, so I wouldn't read too much into that.

Your stats don't consider the possibility of Rooker being thrown out at the plate if Rosario didnt draw the relay throw.   Unless Rosario was dogging it I would expect that Rooker wouldn't be all that closer to home than Rosario was to third.    Very reasonable for Eddie to think the throw would be to home and that it would be close.   Drawing the throw for the run to score has to be part of the equation.

[Tom Froemming]

 

That Wade pick at first base was incredible. There are regular first basemen that would miss that one and he was just thrown out there today with likely the worst weather we've played in all season to boot and he didn't seem to have any issues.

In case anybody missed it.

 

 

 

Replay doesn't show how easily Rooker scored.     I think it was ok for Eddie to think a double would not easily score an average speed at best guy from 1st and that there would either be a play at the plate or he might draw the throw and eliminate the possibility of a play at the plate.   T

 

Your stats don't consider the possibility of Rooker being thrown out at the plate if Rosario didnt draw the relay throw.   Unless Rosario was dogging it I would expect that Rooker wouldn't be all that closer to home than Rosario was to third.    Very reasonable for Eddie to think the throw would be to home and that it would be close.   Drawing the throw for the run to score has to be part of the equation.

All I can say for certain is that Dick was beginning to say "Rooker will score" as the cutoff man received the throw. That leads me to believe there wasn't any chance of a close play at the plate, but there's not any video of where Rooker was in relation to when that ball came in from the outfield.

[USAFChief]

In case anybody missed it.

 

https://twitter.com/TFTwins/status/1303071253985665024

 

 

All I can say for certain is that Dick was beginning to say "Rooker will score" as the cutoff man received the throw. That leads me to believe it there wasn't any chance of a close play at the plate, but there's not any video of where Rooker was in relation to when that ball came in from the outfield.

given he scored without a throw, it almost certainly wasn't close.

 

Also, Rosario initially slowed up into 2nd, and then restarted when he saw Rooker going home, so he wasn't trailing Rooker closely.

[Dantes929]

 

In case anybody missed it.

 

 

 

All I can say for certain is that Dick was beginning to say "Rooker will score" as the cutoff man received the throw. That leads me to believe it there wasn't any chance of a close play at the plate, but there's not any video of where Rooker was in relation to when that ball came in from the outfield.

Yep, but Eddie can't hear Dick say that and with the play behind him he can't gauge how close the play at the plate would have been.   Again, if he wasn't hustling from the get go then there is no defense for him but if he was hustling I think it was reasonable for him to believe Rooker would have been no  more than 10 feet closer to home than Eddie was to third and that either he was going to draw the throw guaranteeing the run or  would make third easily if there was a play at the plate.   If you believe there would be a close play at the plate then drawing the throw to third has run value.    I don't know how to assign the value but it moves it toward a decent decision and away from a stupid mistake.  In no way does it belong in the realm of yesterday's gaffe.

[twinbythebay]

If almost any other Twins player had gotten thrown out the way that Rosario did today, we probably wouldn't be discussing it at all. The problem is that this has become a pattern for him throughout his career, and he doesn't seem to have gotten any smarter about baserunning than when he was a rookie. I'm not sure if there are any stats for this, but Rosie has got to be near the top of the league in getting thrown out on the bases. It's great when he gets clutch hits and makes exciting plays, but he just can't help himself when it comes to taking stupid risks. Like him or not, there's no arguing that this kind of stuff takes away from his overall value as a ballplayer.

[Dantes929]

 

given he scored without a throw, it almost certainly wasn't close.

Also, Rosario initially slowed up into 2nd, and then restarted when he saw Rooker going home, so he wasn't trailing Rooker closely.

Guy didn't look toward home which may or may not have been his teammates yelling to take the more likely out at third.    I didn't see Rodario slowing up into 2nd.   At that point  he was probably watching to see if Rooker was going to try for home and it is still reasonable for him to think there might be a play at the plate.   In this isolated case there may very likely have been no value in drawing the throw.    If Eddie thought there was a chance of a play at the plate then it is defensible.  He just guessed wrong.   

[Dantes929]

 

If almost any other Twins player had gotten thrown out the way that Rosario did today, we probably wouldn't be discussing it at all. The problem is that this has become a pattern for him throughout his career, and he doesn't seem to have gotten any smarter about baserunning than when he was a rookie. I'm not sure if there are any stats for this, but Rosie has got to be near the top of the league in getting thrown out on the bases. It's great when he gets clutch hits and makes exciting plays, but he just can't help himself when it comes to taking stupid risks. Like him or not, there's no arguing that this kind of stuff takes away from his overall value as a ballplayer.

It is very true but he is also probably pretty high on the list of scoring runs unexpectedly..   On balance I would prefer he be a little more cautious.   Just a little.

[ToddlerHarmon]

Is this the beginning of Wade's grooming into an eventual Marwin replacement? any history of him in the infield?

[Han Joelo]

I love you guys.  That Wade highlight got copied three times in comments about Rosario, with nary a mention.  What a sweet pick.  

 

Rosario is like a character in a Major Leagues type movie.  Whatever he does, good or bad, he's the dose of chaos this team needs.

[Aichiman]

Why did our manager put Rogers in to pitch the 9th with a four run lead?  We've got a double header tomorrow. 

[Otwins]

He was already warmed up before Buxton hit the home run to make it a four run lead. Looking through the bullpen usage chart I am not sure what other option he had.

[bighat]

 

love Pineda and Jeffers and Wade and Rooker - give me the young guys to go with this older pitching leader.

Gimme Jeffers over Garver any day.

[bighat]

 

I must take exception, Andrew, to your comment..."Eddie Rosario made a stupid base running mistake that likely cost the Twins runs early in the game." And to be honest, I am surprised that a writer at Twins Daily would make such a comment.

 

Yes, like most of us I cringed when Eddie was caught short of third getting into a run down for a second straight day. But then I listened to Justin Morneau explaining how the situation developed. Rosario was slowing as he approached second, at which time he saw Diaz waiving the runner ahead of him home. With the throw likely going home, it made sense to get to third with only one out.

 

Yes, the outfielder threw to third and Rosie was caught in the run down. But Justin certainly didn't seem to think it was a bad decision. When the camera showed Rosario getting to the dugout his teammates also didn't seem to appear to think it was stupid as they patted him on the back and gave him high 5's.

Absolutely agree with everything you said here. At worst it was a "questionable baserunning decision" or "got burned for being overaggressive".

 

Sportswriters don't call people "stupid", it's insulting and frankly pretty offensive to read. Game threads might use that language in the moment from commenters, but you don't write that kind of stuff in the wraps.

[Linus]

What a pleasure to watch Pineda pound the strike zone. I like Rocco but haven’t figured him out. He has been ultra careful with his starters but let’s Pineda throw a hundred pitches in his second live start. I know there is a reason but not obvious to me.

[Trov]

Lets not forget Pineda was once a top prospect.  Injuries really derailed his career early on.  If he can stay healthy he shows he can be a good pitcher.  Maybe not an Ace, but very good.  If he keeps looking this good I bet he will be top 2 pitcher in post season, and we could have a very good top 3 rotation.