3 Twins Players Heading to Free Agency at the Wrong Time

[Cody Christie]

Next winter’s MLB free agency is going to take on a very different look and feel. Clubs have seen their revenues drastically cut and teams aren’t going to want to deal out big contracts with such an uncertain future facing the sport. Players like Nelson Cruz and Alex Avila will likely do fine in free agency because of their skill set and the role they can fill on multiple clubs, but other Twins players are going to have a little tougher time finding the right free agent deal.Trevor May

 

May will turn 31-years old later this month and this winter will mark his first chance to be a free agent. Over the last two seasons, he has developed into one of the team’s best and most trusted relief arms. In just over 78 innings, he’s posted a 3.22 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP and 101 strikeouts. His high leverage usage also means he is in the top-20 for win probability added among AL relief arms.

 

It stinks that May is hitting free agency for the first time during the current financial situation. He has been one of the league’s best relievers and he deserves to be paid appropriately. Likely, this won’t happen with the way free agency is going to be approached by many front offices.

 

Jake Odorizzi

 

Odorizzi could have been a free agent last off-season, but he decided to take the team’s one-year qualifying offer and head back to Minnesota. He was coming off an All-Star season, so the time seemed right to hit the open market, but last year’s free agent pitching class had a lot of names ahead of Odorizzi. At the time, it seemed like a good decision for him and the Twins with the one-year deal. It would give him the chance to stay with a coaching staff he liked and to build off his 2019 campaign.

 

Unfortunately, he and his agent didn’t have a crystal ball to see everything that would happen in 2020. MLB’s season was delayed, and this gave Odorizzi fewer opportunities to showcase his abilities. He’s also been on the injured list multiple times and he hasn’t performed well on the mound. Everything that could go wrong has gone wrong and now free agency is waiting for him.

 

Ehire Adrianza

 

Adrianza is in an interesting spot, because his skill set is readily available on the open market. In fact, Minnesota had a similar player in Ildemaro Vargas on the roster this season before he was claimed by the Cubs. In his first three seasons with the Twins, he averaged 89 games and slashed .260/.321/.391 with decent defense at multiple infield positions. Basically, what a team would want from a utility infielder.

 

 

The 2020 season hasn’t been kind to Adrianza as he has been limited to a .466 OPS with 14 strikeouts in 59 at-bats. He’s making $1.6 million this season and it seems like his role on the team could be filled by a similar player in the organization like Nick Gordon. Adrianza is a superior defender to other internal options, but his value continues to be limited and he will be 31-years old next season. He seems like a player that might be forced to take a minor league deal before forcing his way onto a big-league roster.

 

What do you think about this free agent trio? What will their market be this winter? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

 

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[darwin22]

Only May may be missed of that trio. Saying that, his recent performances have NOT been good.  Brutal inning today (0.2 IP 4H and 3 ER), but again, imo, due to his lack of command with his secondary pitches.  His fastball is his best pitch, but lacks movement.  He can be replaced.  As for Odorizzi----good riddance.  Will never be more than a .500 SP who NEVER gets deep in games due to lack of command/high pitch count.  Adrianza also, can be easily replaced. Sub .200 avg with at best average speed and defensive skills.

[DocBauer]

The problem with this crazy year and financial situations that can have FA and even arbitration repercussions for the next few years is it also affects internal development for each team with no milb season, only taxi squad development at this time for a handful of prospects, and no idea right now if there will be any sort of EST or expanded version of it.

 

And let's not forget the finances of MLB are not only affected by 2020 but also labor questions beyond 2021. (Not taking a labor stance, just stating an obvious situation).

 

You mentioned Cruz and Avilla. I don't think Cruz is going anywhere based on want and need from both sides. Avillla could retire? I'm impressed by Jeffers thus far, even though the ML bat isn't quite there yet. Would it be so bad to bring Avilla back on a cheap 1yr for insurance and depth?

 

MAY] I'd really like him back. Some might say he's easily replaceable after a couple rough days recently and the FO ability to develop a bullpen. But that's an easy cop-out, even with a few arms close. A couple other guys may or may not be back. I want to keep the bullets we have. As good as May has been the last 2yrs, I don't feel he's proved enough over enough time to warrant a Reed like $8M. But 2020 makes that a near financial impossibility unless someone is just in love with him. I can't say what he's worth in this climate, but I can't believe he would cost more than $3.5-5M.

 

ODORIZZI] Things couldn't have gone worse for him in 2020. Not his qualifying offer, but any chance to build on 2019. You can argue all you want, but even without the qualifying offer, was anyone going to offer him more than $20M per? I mean, he's solid and very good at times, I like him and want him back. But I've been arguing for a long time now his QO is more than fair. Again, unless someone is just in love with him, I believe his fair value will be somewhere in the $14-15M range with a max of $16M. More than fair for a good/great #3 SP who often pitches like a #2 when healthy, even if it's for 5-6 IP per. He also wants to stay.

 

I think the Twins want him to stay as well. Biggest question, in my mind, is not if they like him. The question is do they have another Maeda type move in mind, or trust their system to replace him quickly enough?

 

ADRIANZA] With Gordon being out until recently, I could see Adrianza back on a smaller salary. His glove is excellent. He's versatile. Do you bet the bat of the last 2 seasons is more accurate than his 2020 bat? Gordon may not be ready. Blankenhorn is a different player. I think it's easily dismissive to say he's easily replaceable.

 

Again, defense, versatility, 2 previous years of a solid bat...i think he is absolutely worth another 1yr deal, but probably at a reduced salary at this point,

 

I would have argued about Marwin in the OP, were it me. I'd of argued him over Adrianza. As of now, despite some early flash, his bat has disappointed. But he's part of the depth the Twins have built up. Where would the team be right now without him in 2020? He's flashed defensively at 3B and 1B filling in and is a solid corner OF to give guys days off. He's been damn important last year and this year. Now, he's not showing himself to be worth another $9M to the Twins or anyone else. But he's still worth something.

 

What is he worth to the Twins in 2021 or anyone else? He's not old, but he's not getting younger. Do you bet the bat rebounds to go along with defense and versatility?

 

Marwin coming back on a cheaper 1yr wouldn't disappoint me. He's a fine ballplayer. But if the team really believes in Blankenhorn...and they protected him, played him a lot in both ST...Gonzalez may be more easily replaced than Adrianza. At least his bat. Experience and defense are still worth something.

 

The Twins will have money coming off the books here and there, but will also lose the $10M from the Dodgers in the Maeda deal. How much do the Twins lose in 2020? What kind of payroll are they willing to deal with in 2021? (PLEASE, not another Pohlad's are cheap arguement)! There WILL be roster changes for many reasons. But the window of opportunity for this team is WIDE OPEN, regardless of how this season ends. And I have NO PROBLEM if the vast majority of this team comes back in 2021 with a milb season and a packed 40 man roster chomping at the bit to come up.

[tony&rodney]

Agree: May is a possibility for a year at 3-4; Odorizzi could return to form at 10-12; Avila will decide if he wants to accept 2-3; and Adrianza is worth his current deal.

Gonzalez has value but he will need to sign for half or less than his current contract as money will be tight. Payroll seems like it might come down but hard decisions could be made on Rosario, Odorizzi, and Gonzalez, but hopefully not Cruz. Others are most likely out: Bailey, Hill, Romo, and Clippard. Payroll thinking is best put off until November but it will be a tough winter for free agents and budget cuts will certainly occur. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

"But time makes you bolder. even children grow older, and I'm gettin' older too." Fleetwood Mac..".Landslide"  I enjoyed watching May, Odorizzi, Adrianza and Marwin, but they're gettin' older. and none of them are a Cruz, or a Mauer. 

. There are cheaper players already in the Twins organization, one of whom will become a Joe Nathan, one will become a Camilo Pascual, and one will become Royce Lewis.

[bighat]

Some good comments here.

 

Agree with most that Odorizzi is really screwed and he's got to be just gutted about taking that Q.O. last year. It honestly couldn't have gone worse for the guy. On the plus side, makes the Twins a realistic partner and maybe we can get him at a discount? And frankly let's not pretend he's going to the poor house: a team will certainly pay him in the offseason, one year removed from an All-Star season, starting pitching is hard to find, he'll be on a lot of people's lists.

 

But he did miss out on mega money. He'll be looking at Zach Wheeler's contract with the Phillies for a long time thinking "I coulda had that". And he coulda.

[mikelink45]

Odorizzi took the QO and made much more money than he had or might of got on the free agent market.  He is fine.  He will not make as much next year, but he will get a chance to pitch.  

 

Trevor May is hurting himself right now.  I think he is overused and one of the victims of the BP games that are eating up the BP arms at the wrong time.  But we know how teams like RP so he will do fine.

 

Adrianza's bat really disappeared this year.  But more than that, it is time to cycle in some younger players.  

[jmlease1]

I feel the most for Odorizzi, because he was looking at a very big payday if he could have turned in another good season and now he's kinda hanging out there. The injuries wouldn't impact his free agency nearly as hard in a normal year where things are spaced out a little more. But between the injuries, the ineffectiveness to date (he can't even do a normal rehab where he could go down and do a couple of minor league starts to get back in the groove before returning to the MLB roster) and the overall financial situation...hard to see him getting the 4-5 big money offer he was hoping for. Does he bet on himself for another year and try to make a run on a 1 year deal? He's not young any longer either.

 

May is going to be hurt by this too, which probably works to the Twins advantage. I think they'll want to bring him back; yes, he's given up more hits this year to date, but how much of that is just SSS? The stuff plays and he's also getting tons of Ks without handing out free passes willy-nilly. But instead of getting a 3 or possibly 4 year deal, he's looking more likely at 2 years and for less money. I don't think anyone is going to hand him a closer job, and it's unlikely he'll get an offer for more than 3/4M AAV.

 

I don't think Adrianza is significantly impacted. He is who he is, a solid utility guy. He might lose a little because the overall financial market will be down, but he was never likely to get an offer like he was a starter. I like him, he's been a useful player on the team, but he's not a player you're going to give a long-term deal to or commit a substantial amount of money to. But he'll still have a job, I think, even if it's not with the Twins. And that's always the way it is with a utility guy who just isn't good enough to take a starting job away from someone else.

[ChrisKnutson]

Resigning Cruz should be a given, but when it comes to the rest May is the only one I’d prioritize. Despite his struggles lately, getting him on a 2yr/$10M could be a potential bargain.

[TopGunn#22]

I think Doc Bauer made a lot of good points.  I have a couple thoughts that are different but as usual, Doc's reasoning is solid.  I also agree with Mike Link that Odorizzi taking the QO wasn't horrible for him.  He obviously doesn't have an arm like say, Zach Wheeler (ask anyone on Twins Daily if we could wave a magic wand, who we would choose...hint...WHEELER).  Because  there are young arms the Twins are intrigued with, guys like May, Romo, Clippard, might be elsewhere next year.  Odorizzi seems to be fairly dependable, but is there a trade in the off season in the works to bolster our starting pitching.  If Rooker shows well, and he is so far, I still see an Eddie Rosario trade to add pitching.  I then see Rooker and finally Kiriloff playing corner outfield and some 1B in a revamped roster.  Sano moves to DH on days Cruz rests.  (the Twins MUST sign Cruz to a 2-year deal.  He's amazing, but more frequent rest could be necessary in the future).  2021 is time to get Nick Gordon up.  But I agree with the general opinion that if the Twins can sign a number of these guys back to "team friendly" deals due to 2021 uncertainty then I think they will do the best they can to keep the band together.  

[Trov]

Of the three listed to discuss Odo has worst FA approaching.  He took the QO, one for liking MN, and two risk of not getting as good of deal elsewhere.  We assume based on other offers he could have, but we will never know now.  It was looking good if he could have produced close to what he did last year, but he failed to do so.  He also will not be likely to long term deal like most players not knowing what next 2 years bring.  If he could have secured his bag last off-season that would have been good for him.

 

May, I do not think is much of an issue because of shifting cost of pen guys.  Very few get more than a 2 year deal, and they are top closer guys, which May is not, despite having good numbers in big situations.  This year he has struggled in some games.  I do not think he is missing out on much as I doubt he would have got a huge deal even in normal FA year.

 

Finally, as said Adrianza is replaceable and aging.  Bench guys past age 31 will not be in high demand for more than league min.  No team was going to go higher than that in normal season.  He may not get offer now because teams may want cheaper internal option but he was not going to get multi year offer anywhere. 

[Rosterman]

Hill and Bailey. Bailey might be an option if he signs again at a lower rate.

 

Romo gets his option picked up. Clippard walks. May is the BIG question. I always wanted him to perform well enough to be the closer. But not seeing it happen. In that case, it would be a 4-5 year job. But no. Being replaced by Stashak, Littell or Alcala has now happened.

 

Odorizzi will have a tough off season. Someone MIGHT offer him a multi-year deal if he gets 3 more starts with the Twins. Otherwise, talk about a career collapse.

 

You look at replacements for free agents. The Twins can replace Adrianza with Gordon fer sure. Except that it would be nice to see Gordon actually play against major league pitching. Gonzalez will price himself out of the Twins. He's not Gonzalez, but Astudillo can play multiple positions and catch. Not saying its the same, but it is a choice.

 

Cruz isn't asking for the world. The Twins should pay it.

 

Avilla is a nice veteran presence. Do you want more seasoning for Jeffers?

 

The biggest question is Rosario. Can Rooker play the outfield? And also wonder what to do with guys on the fringe like Wade and Cave. 

 

Also, who do the Twins have to protect in what could be a highly interesting Rule 5 draft.

[Danchat]

I'd like to get May back on a reasonable deal, maybe 3/18? Something in that range perhaps.

 

I'd let Odorizzi hit free agency, and only bring him back if his market is non-existent. We already have Berrios-Maeda-Pineda-Dobnak for 2021, and I would prefer to aim higher than Odo (give a big one year deal to Bauer, trade for a starter). 

 

I wouldn't underestimate Adrianza's contibutions as a defender. He plays SS really well, and I don't think we have anyone else who can play it even close to Ehire's level. I believe Gordon is considered to be a below average fielder, not sure if he has a future in the MLB. Blankenhorn is more of a 2B/3B guy. I wouldn't pony up a bunch of money for Adrianza since his bat is mediocre at best, but I would be scouring the market for a premium SS/utility guy.

[a-wan]

May, and his combination this year of hard contact when he does give up contact is a little scary for a 31 year old reliever with control issues. 

[ChrisKnutson]

Here comes the Rosario trade talk again... While I wouldn’t extend him, I’m not a fan of just handing the keys to either of Rooker, Larnach, or Kirilloff just yet. If it were up to me I’d enjoy one more season of Eddie and then I’d hit him with QO next offseason.

 

As for replacing Gonzalez and Adrianza, while I’m a fan of utilizing guys like Blankenhorn and Astudillo, ultimately I’d pay up for Kiké Hernandez.

[jun]

 

Agree: May is a possibility for a year at 3-4; Odorizzi could return to form at 10-12; Avila will decide if he wants to accept 2-3; and Adrianza is worth his current deal.

Gonzalez has value but he will need to sign for half or less than his current contract as money will be tight. Payroll seems like it might come down but hard decisions could be made on Rosario, Odorizzi, and Gonzalez, but hopefully not Cruz. Others are most likely out: Bailey, Hill, Romo, and Clippard. Payroll thinking is best put off until November but it will be a tough winter for free agents and budget cuts will certainly occur. 

I think May and Romo will stay. Odorizzi, Gonzalez, Adrianza, Hill and Bailey will leave. Clippard and Cruz will be asked to stay. Rosario will be traded.

[JW24]

Is there a thread started yet for offseason moves? Twins have some big decisions looming. In regards to this article, I hope the Twins bring back May on something like a 3/$15M type deal (let Romo and Clippard walk), I hope Adrianza is back on a similar deal (letting Marwin walk), and let Odorizzi go.

 

I think the Twins could essentially take the money paid to Romo, Clippard, May, Adrianza, Odorizzi and Marwin this year and turn it into May, Adrianza and Trevor Bauer next year. At least that is what I am hoping for.

 

Off the topic of this article, I would also like to see a big Buxton extension this offseason. He still is under team control for 2 years, would something like 8/$160 get the job done? Please feel free to redirect my comments to a more appropriate thread if such exists.

[jun]

 

Is there a thread started yet for offseason moves? Twins have some big decisions looming. In regards to this article, I hope the Twins bring back May on something like a 3/$15M type deal (let Romo and Clippard walk), I hope Adrianza is back on a similar deal (letting Marwin walk), and let Odorizzi go.

 

I think the Twins could essentially take the money paid to Romo, Clippard, May, Adrianza, Odorizzi and Marwin this year and turn it into May, Adrianza and Trevor Bauer next year. At least that is what I am hoping for.

 

Off the topic of this article, I would also like to see a big Buxton extension this offseason. He still is under team control for 2 years, would something like 8/$160 get the job done? Please feel free to redirect my comments to a more appropriate thread if such exists.

Why do you want Romo and Clippard walk? They don't cost much and they are still quite effective. Why do you want Adrianza stay? He is really not that important and can be easily replaced by a prospect. Why do you want to extend Buxton for 8/$160 if he can't stay healthy to contribute?

[rukavina]

Gonna be a crazy year.  Free agents are going to be cheap and on shorter contracts. 

[FlauerPauer]

 

Off the topic of this article, I would also like to see a big Buxton extension this offseason. He still is under team control for 2 years, would something like 8/$160 get the job done? Please feel free to redirect my comments to a more appropriate thread if such exists.

 

What? That would be a terrible deal. Buxton has played essentially three full years in a six year career to a respectable 10 WAR. However, he cannot stay healthy and can you realistically expect his speed to stay elite into his late 20s and early 30s? I certainly don't. $20 million for a career .706 OPS player? No thanks. That $20 million needs to go to a starting pitcher.

[JW24]

 

Why do you want Romo and Clippard walk? They don't cost much and they are still quite effective. Why do you want Adrianza stay? He is really not that important and can be easily replaced by a prospect. Why do you want to extend Buxton for 8/$160 if he can't stay healthy to contribute?

I would rather keep May over either Romo or Clippard, and allowing those 2 to walk frees up $7.5M from what was committed this season. It isn't a matter of effectiveness, just a function of not being able to pay everybody.

 

Adrianza's contract next year would be a rounding error on the books, and his defensive versatility is worth a lot in my opinion. If he can hit more like he did in 2019 than this year, he would be a strong asset off the bench.

 

As for Buxton, when he is healthy, he is the most important player to the Twins and it isn't particularly close. Nick Nelson tweeted out the Twins winning percentage over the past couple years with Buxton in and out of the lineup and it is a huge gap. With 2 more years of team control, by the time Buxton would hit the market, it is very possible he is asking for Gerrit Cole money, and I think a deal could be worked out that would benefit both Buxton and the Twins. I am betting on him staying healthy and playing 140+ games consistently, which he obviously hasn't done yet. The Twins might be taking on more risk in this scenario, but the reward could be huge.