DET 10, MIN 8: Bullpen Finally Breaks

[BD57]

This  whole series, the umpires have been calling pitches 4 inches (even more) off the outside corner strikes ....

 

Is there any "quality control" with them at all?

[MABB1959]

Why is Buxton a part-time player?  This is his prime!  Short season and already missed half? 

[jmlease1]

what was so frustrating about this game was the Twins finally had a "crooked number" inning early in the game and had a nice lead. The offense had been struggling so much, even in the recent wins we weren't generating a lot of runs, so you see them start stringing together some hits and you start thinking "here we go!" and then everyone in the bullpen has a bad game at the same time.

 

well, I guess that's baseball.

 

Rosario had some kind of a game. A couple of significant mental errors. Nearly had two great defensive plays...and ended up with nothing. Big dinger. Can't say it was a great overall day for him, but he's a guy who makes things happen. You can have one of those guys on a team, but I wouldn't want two or three.

 

Astudillo is a utility player. He's useful to have on a roster, especially with the bigger rosters because you can plus him into a lot of spots. But he's not a particularly good defender at any position, including catcher. As a 3rd catcher who can play a bunch of other spots and bench bat who is really good at making contact...he's a useful role player. I think he's exposed as a regular, and we saw that today. He looked pretty bad letting a pitch go to the backstop, and leaving the ball behind on the great throw hurt (even if the Tigers runner very likely didn't actually touch the plate and was probably out). He's just not a skilled defender back there. Jeffers/Avila/Garver all probably make that play.

 

despite scoring 8 runs, the Twins left 22 runners on base. That's still not a winning formula even with the bullpen blowup.

 

I'm still worried about Hill and his struggles with his control. Yes, he got into a groove eventually, but seeing him miss badly on so many first inning pitches...not sure he's going to be a starting option.

[USAFChief]

what was so frustrating about this game was the Twins finally had a "crooked number" inning early in the game and had a nice lead. The offense had been struggling so much, even in the recent wins we weren't generating a lot of runs, so you see them start stringing together some hits and you start thinking "here we go!" and then everyone in the bullpen has a bad game at the same time.

 

well, I guess that's baseball.

 

Rosario had some kind of a game. A couple of significant mental errors. Nearly had two great defensive plays...and ended up with nothing. Big dinger. Can't say it was a great overall day for him, but he's a guy who makes things happen. You can have one of those guys on a team, but I wouldn't want two or three.

 

Astudillo is a utility player. He's useful to have on a roster, especially with the bigger rosters because you can plus him into a lot of spots. But he's not a particularly good defender at any position, including catcher. As a 3rd catcher who can play a bunch of other spots and bench bat who is really good at making contact...he's a useful role player. I think he's exposed as a regular, and we saw that today. He looked pretty bad letting a pitch go to the backstop, and leaving the ball behind on the great throw hurt (even if the Tigers runner very likely didn't actually touch the plate and was probably out). He's just not a skilled defender back there. Jeffers/Avila/Garver all probably make that play.

 

despite scoring 8 runs, the Twins left 22 runners on base. That's still not a winning formula even with the bullpen blowup.

 

I'm still worried about Hill and his struggles with his control. Yes, he got into a groove eventually, but seeing him miss badly on so many first inning pitches...not sure he's going to be a starting option.

Nitpic: the Twins left 10 runners on base, not 22.

 

https://www.mlb.com/gameday/tigers-vs-twins/2020/09/06/631254#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=box,game=631254

[rdehring]

 

I know they will make the post season, but passing either chicago or Cleveland is big. Along with getting everyone healthy and locked in, playing a 3 game series at target field should be the goal.

Isn't there serious discussion that the playoffs will be in a bubble. Have seen several references to Southern Cal, although they should be able to get better locations with less COVID...although the weather is always a plus in So Cal in October.

[rdehring]

 

Astudillo is not a catcher. He's a baseball player who can fill in behind the plate if need be. He took an outfield assist away from Rosario by not handling the excellent throw in the second inning and he let at least two wild pitches get past him that he should have stopped. I guess it's OK for him to be the fourth-string catcher but as today showed we would benefit from having another real catcher available.

But he is the 4th string catcher. Unfortunately, he has to play some when the first two are hurt. He seemed to be more adequate last year. Wondering if he didn't get a lot of time behind the plate while in St. Paul.

[rdehring]

Want to comment on something several have referred to about Eddie. That is that he plays for himself, in caps.

 

Except when he is beat up or worn down, Eddie usually plays at one speed, 110 mph. Lots of good stuff happens when he does that, and some bad. But this is who he is. Personally, I love the guy. And yes, like most of you I cringe when he makes one of his usually mental mistakes...or two.

 

But I truly believe that Eddie is not thinking of what is best for him when he does make those mistakes. More likely, he is playing his game on full speed auto pilot and isn't thinking at all.

[theBOMisthebomb]

Eddie is a player. Simple as that. He does things and sometimes those things don't work out. In his Twins tenure he has shown up day in and day out. Fans don't know what injuries players play through or incapacitate them for a trip to the IL. Rosario (and Polanco too) play through, seemingly. Last year, it was obvious that Eddie was injured but there just wasn't anyone else to put out there. I don't remember the quote, but Paul Molitor spoke to Rosario's fire to play baseball. If one of the most intelligent and knowledgable players of the last half century speaks on your behalf, it's worth noting. It seems pretty bold to question his character and attitude when he routinely goes to the post. He just makes mistakes sometimes.

Rosario may be moved this winter and when I saw Kirilloff swing the bat I thought that he has a bright future in baseball and wondered how he would get his chance with the Twins. I'm excited to see Kirilloff and others in the future. In the meantime I look forward to every at bat that Eddie Rosario takes, even though I groan and curse on many occasions. He is the best outfielder we have right now, despite the great game by Wade today. The Twins' bullpen got lit up today, pure and simple. That's not on Rosario.

Fine defense of Eddie, I agree that we should appreciate what we have and enjoy whatever remaining ABs he has in a Twins uniform. To me, Eddie is a gamer and a winner and a guy I want on my roster and in the lineup, regardless of the advanced stats. That being said, I can't defend not knowing the ground rules at Target Field and not hustling to finish the play (Detroit players kept hustling). Eddie is high risk/high reward type and Rocco is wise not to reign him in too much - you have to let guys like that play through things in their own way. Still, you can't argue with the umps while the runners keep going. As far as running through the stop sign, since he was out it was a terrible decision and the risk wasn't worth it. Even if he was safe, you have to ask why risk it. Eddie will always be a player who generates strong opinions one way or another due to his playing (sometimes reckless) style. I am a fan of Eddie's yet can understand while others are critical.

[saviking]

Rosario definity has his strengths but I do not enjoy his game. Whether throwing to the wrong base, lack of discipline at the plate or not taking directions on the base paths. It's just bad baseball. I wouldn't want my grandkid to watch his game and then go play little league. You can call it bad decisions but I call it lack of discipline but most of all, selfishness. Everything is about what's in it for Eddie. 

 

With Krilloff, Laurnich, Lewis and Rooker knocking at the door I say, let them in and show Eddie the way out .. Sorry, I have had enough .. 

[rdehring]

 

Rosario definity has his strengths but I do not enjoy his game. Whether throwing to the wrong base, lack of discipline at the plate or not taking directions on the base paths. It's just bad baseball. I wouldn't want my grandkid to watch his game and then go play little league. You can call it bad decisions but I call it lack of discipline but most of all, selfishness. Everything is about what's in it for Eddie. 

 

With Krilloff, Laurnich, Lewis and Rooker knocking at the door I say, let them in and show Eddie the way out .. Sorry, I have had enough .. 

I got a real good smile out of your above comment about not wanting your grandkids to play like Eddie.

 

Well, my grandkid is a gal, so it isn't apples to apples. But if she were a guy and played like Eddie, I would love it should he like Eddie became a regular starter on a big league team.  

[Trov]

A couple comments.  Eddie is who he is and will not change now.  The base running is not his first time nor will be his last time he makes bad base running call.  Sometimes it pays off and we do not remember those times, but we will remember all the bad ones.  In terms of defense he is not great overall but has a strong arm.  A better fielder could have robbed the HR, but I do not blame him for it.  The non ground rule double I do not blame him for not knowing the rule, but he still could have given a little bit of effort to throw the ball in until he saw the call by the umps, play to the whistle as they say in football.  In grand scheme it did not cost team much as they would have let the runs score on next hit anyways most likely.  If you want to blame anyone for Eddie not knowing the rule that is on Rocco for not teaching all the players the rules.  

 

Austidillo should never catch unless we have no other options.  I like to see him hit and run because as a bigger guy my self I like to think if he can I could have in my day, but I really could not.  However, he is a terrible defender out there.  Here is to hoping Garver or Avila can be back soon.  The double off day will hopefully limit us to one more game of him catching, a 7 inning game at that. 

 

In terms of pen, they did blow this game and they all failed, but that will happen from time to time, not worried.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

despite scoring 8 runs, the Twins left 22 runners on base. That's still not a winning formula even with the bullpen blowup.

 

 

Nitpic: the Twins left 10 runners on base, not 22.

https://www.mlb.com/gameday/tigers-vs-twins/2020/09/06/631254#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=box,game=631254

 

Nitpic: you're both right!

 

The Twins had 10 "team LOB" in the game, but adding up each batter's individual LOB equals 22.

 

(As an example, if 3 guys in a row strand the bases loaded, your team LOB would be 3 for that inning, but adding up each batter's individual LOB would equal 9.)

[bighat]

 

 

 

With Krilloff, Laurnich, Lewis and Rooker knocking at the door I say, let them in and show Eddie the way out .. Sorry, I have had enough .. 

Any of those guys going to hit 32 HR, drive in 100+ runs and be among the top 5 in the AL in outfield assists? On a regular basis?

 

Prospects - in our heads - are all future All-Stars who are being deprived of an opportunity. But a realistic full season for any of those guys listed above next year looks something like this: 15 HR, 50 RBI, and a .233 batting average. If any of them has a career like Eddie Rosario we'll be very, very lucky.

 

Some people won't appreciate Eddie until he's gone. Maybe not even then.

[dogsday]

Woof!

[tony&rodney]

Buxton, Rosario, and Kepler all arrived at the same time, mol. Check out their stats.

Buxton is one of the most exciting players in baseball when he is playing well/ on the field and Kepler is an outstanding right-fielder and baserunner. Eddie is Eddie. line up the numbers and look and you will see that Kepler is somewhat near in accomplishments, but Rosario is the best OF the Twins have had for the last half decade and that is something. There is a good chance he is not with the Twins next summer - we all need to appreciate him while we can.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Any of those guys going to hit 32 HR, drive in 100+ runs and be among the top 5 in the AL in outfield assists? On a regular basis?

To be fair, Rosario hasn't hit 32 HR or driven in 100+ runs on a regular basis either -- 2019 was the only time he reached either, in a season of record-breaking HR totals all over. Although he would be on pace to do so again in 2020 but with a long way to go.

 

His overall wRC+ from 2019-2020 is only 102, barely above the cumulative MLB LF performance during that time (~99).

 

He has ranked top 10 in outfield assists 3 times in his 6 seasons, although again I'm not sure how to consider that relative to his overall performance.

 

He's definitely not without value, but he definitely seems to be in the zone where you'd look for top prospects to either exceed his performance or at least equal it, overall, at a cheaper salary (thereby allowing the team to spend those resources elsewhere).

 

 

But a realistic full season for any of those guys listed above next year looks something like this: 15 HR, 50 RBI, and a .233 batting average.

Sure, as a rookie, that might be a fair median projection. Although HR and RBI are going to be playing-time (and batting-order) dependent.

 

But the nice thing about rookies is that you don't have to promote them, or you can demote them, if they're not playing well. And if the Twins have 4 quality prospects they could try in this spot, they can probably get at least 1 out of the 4 to perform better than that median projection.

 

You might lose a regular season win or two in Rosario's spot, but with the money you save, you may be able to make that up elsewhere on your roster. And of course, for a well-built and deep team like the Twins, regular season wins may not be quite as valuable anymore as postseason wins (especially if expanded playoffs are here to stay). Is Rosario an impact player in a short series?

[h2oface]

 

Nitpic: you're both right!

 

The Twins had 10 "team LOB" in the game, but adding up each batter's individual LOB equals 22.

 

(As an example, if 3 guys in a row strand the bases loaded, your team LOB would be 3 for that inning, but adding up each batter's individual LOB would equal 9.)

 

Nitty Nitpic. No, not both right. Good tutorial summary of the difference, but if it is said "the Twins left 22 runners on base", that does not imply that one means "the Twins' individual batters totalled 22 runners left on base throughout the game." The Twins left a total of 10 runners on base as totalled by how many runners were on base when each inning ended. If one is going to say, unqualified, that the Twins left 22 runners on base, it means the team LOB. Always. Always has, and always will. That is why they say it at the end of each inning. 

 

Good summary, but no reason to normalize not understanding the difference, and trying to make them both right when one isn't.

 

[h2oface]

 

Some people won't appreciate Eddie until he's gone. Maybe not even then.

 

They really won't when/if the Twins let him go, and he torments us and wins games against us with the same style for the opposing team.

[mikelink45]

 

This  whole series, the umpires have been calling pitches 4 inches (even more) off the outside corner strikes ....

 

Is there any "quality control" with them at all?

the question comes back to - do we have an electronic means of measuring real strikes?  And why aren't we using it?

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Nitty Nitpic. No, not both right. Good tutorial summary of the difference, but if it is said "the Twins left 22 runners on base", that does not imply that one means "the Twins' individual batters totalled 22 runners left on base throughout the game." The Twins left a total of 10 runners on base as totalled by how many runners were on base when each inning ended. If one is going to say, unqualified, that the Twins left 22 runners on base, it means the team LOB. Always. Always has, and always will. That is why they say it at the end of each inning. 

 

Good summary, but no reason to normalize not understanding the difference, and trying to make them both right when one isn't.

I don't know about "always". If you click through to the linked boxscore, sure you see Team LOB 10. But you also see a LOB column for the players, at the bottom of which is shown the team total of 22. It's not like you have to hunt for it or calculate it yourself.

 

And both pieces of information are informative. For example, say there were two teams, one which stranded a leadoff baserunner every inning, and the other which stranded a two-out baserunner every inning. Both have a Team LOB of 9. But their team total LOBs would be 9 vs 27. It's worth pointing out if a team falls closer to the latter performance than the former in that metric!

 

If you were writing a formal paper, I'd recommend making a distinction between the two, but for discussion and message board posts, I think either could be acceptable depending on the circumstances.