MIN 4, DET 3: Fashionably Late

[Thiéres Rabelo]

The Twins’ lineup was quiet most of Saturday night's game, once again, but Miguel Sanó seemed to break the ice with a monster home run in the seventh inning. Sanó also drove in the game-tying run in the bottom of the ninth, and Byron Buxton walked it off by beating out an infield single.Box Score

Maeda: 6.0 IP, 2 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 8 K

Home Runs: Sanó (9)

Top 3 WPA: Sanó .597, Buxton .248, Donaldson .115

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs):

Download attachment: Winchart.png

 

Facing rookie lefty Tarik Skubal for the second time in the last seven days, the Twins offense experienced much of the same difficulties they’ve had throughout this year against southpaws. In fact, he had an even better game tonight. Skubal held the Twins hitless the first four innings, as he cruised to pitch six innings of one-run ball in under 80 pitches.

It’s not like Kenta Maeda was much less impressive. He did allow a home run to center fielder Victor Reyes to leadoff the first inning, but bounced back brilliantly, retiring the following 18 batters he faced. Before the seventh, 75% of Maeda's pitches were strikes and he produced a lot of swings and misses, with 41% Whiff% on his swings.

 

To try and help their starter, Twins bats managed to bring a runner across home plate in the fifth. Rookie right fielder Brent Rooker led off the inning with his second major league hit, jumping on a 0-2 fastball for a single. Jake Cave came in to run for him and was moved to third after a Miguel Sanó single. He scored on a fielder’s choice when Eddie Rosario grounded into a double play, tying it up.

 

The game shifted to a different direction in the seventh. Maeda allowed the first two batters of the inning to reach, which ended the night for him. Tyler Clippard took over and after successfully stranding all six runners he previously inherited this year, he couldn’t pull it off this time. He gave up three consecutive hits and Detroit took a two-run lead. Even with the bases loaded, he managed to retire the next three batters to end the inning.

 

Minnesota shortened the distances in the home half of the inning, with Sanó clobbering a two-out, 414-foot bomb to left.

 

Jorge Alcalá had yet another impressive outing, pitching a couple of scoreless innings on 24 pitches and allowing the Twins to bat in the bottom of the ninth with a one-run deficit. This was the seventh time this season that he pitched at least two innings in a game, not allowing a run in any of them.

 

The rally started when Tigers reliever José Cisnero allowed both Josh Donaldson and Nelson Cruz to reach to open the inning. Sanó got his third hit of the night with a ground ball to left, scoring pinch runner Ehire Adrianza. Eddie Rosario sent Cruz to third on a force play and later stole second, putting even more pressure on Cisnero. Then came Byron Buxton, still hitless on the night, and walked it off with his super human speed.

 

 

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

Download attachment: Bullpen.png

 

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[CTTwin]

Great comeback!

[JoshDungan1]

Buxton literally just makes this team wins by nothing more than just being in the lineup. My goodness is he crucial to the team doing anything.

[Twodogs]

The last two wins were huge. It really stunk that the Twins lost 6 straight. I think had they gone 3 - 3 over that stretch no one worries about anything. But when you lose 6 straight you kinda feel that panic mode hitting and then they rip off 5 straight that kinda evens it out, but to rip games away like they did today is huge for the team in my opinion.

[terrydactyls]

That kind of speed is not humanly possible.

[AceWrigley]

Describe Byron Buxton: Fast. Really, really fast.

[AceWrigley]

Ludicrous speed.

[h2oface]

Who is tired of Buxton? Certainly not me!

 

Kenta got "deGrom'd" by his teammate again, this time Clippard. And Clippard's ERA even went down! At least the team got the victory this time, too.

 

Pretty awesome grit shown by this team the last 3 games. Now I just hope the vaunted offense can start hitting.

[LFRGary]

That wasn't a walk-off win. That was the first Twins sprint-off win. Buck is in a class by himself. WOW!!!

[arby58]

Buxton got the game winner, but Sano was in the middle of everything. He has been more impactful at the plate than any Twins player under the age of 40 for quite some time.

[Otto von Ballpark]

It appears the Tigers made a major blunder by not simply waking Buxton in that spot. Yeah, it would have loaded the bases and reduced the pitcher’s margin for error in terms of walking the next batter (Marwin), but it would have:

 

1. Restored the force play at every base

2. Largely taken Buxton’s legs out of the situation

3. In the event the game remained tied and gone to extra innings, it would have put Marwin at 2B to start the 10th rather than Buxton.

 

As it was, pitching to Buxton there meant the Tigers were pretty much destined to lose, if not in that plate appearance then likely in the next inning or two.

[bighat]

HOW....???

 

Honestly this was a routine grounder. Not a dribbler, not a high chopper. Just a two-hop bouncer to short. And played solidly by the defender.

 

It's unfair. And I'm laughing maniacally and rubbing my hands together.

 

C'mon Bux, let's get hot and keep making contact. There might just be an All-Star year for him yet next year if he can stay healthy and stay in this lineup.

[stringer bell]

Good points, but I don't think they tell the whole story. Buxton has a .241 OBP, compared to Gonzalez' .301. As far as guaranteeing a run because of Buxton's speed starting an inning on second base, yes he would be able to score on infield hoppers that wouldn't score the much slower Gonalez and a fly ball wouldn't have to be very deep to score him from third. However, given the low amount of contact that hitters produce and the fact that much of the time there is contact, the ball is popped up, I don't think the odds are appreciably higher with the speedster and Buxton never steals third base. 

[Tovar12]

The way Buxton looked overmatched in his two (6 pitch total) strikeouts?  Not so sure the Tigers made a bad judgement call in pitching to him.  They were probably hoping   to punch him out again - but it was not to be!

[Nine of twelve]

I wish to make two points about Rosario's baserunning in the ninth.

First, it was good for him to take second base on defensive indifference. That probably would not have had an impact on the outcome of the game because it would have been a difficult play for a charging shortstop to try for the force at second but it's still good to eliminate a force play.

Second, why was Rosario running on Buxton's ground ball? Or even taking a lead? There was no reason for him to leave second base. He should have been standing with his foot on the bag the whole time.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Good points, but I don't think they tell the whole story. Buxton has a .241 OBP, compared to Gonzalez' .301. As far as guaranteeing a run because of Buxton's speed starting an inning on second base, yes he would be able to score on infield hoppers that wouldn't score the much slower Gonalez and a fly ball wouldn't have to be very deep to score him from third. However, given the low amount of contact that hitters produce and the fact that much of the time there is contact, the ball is popped up, I don't think the odds are appreciably higher with the speedster and Buxton never steals third base.

Gonzalez is quite slow though:

 

https://twitter.com/NickNelsonMN/status/1300228057664491524?s=20

 

Buxton not only scores on more grounders / flies, but he also is more likely to advance from second to third on those grounders or flies (or passed balls, wild pitches). More likely to score directly from 2nd on a single or an error too.

 

Especially if balls in play are scarce as you say, Buxton’s increased ability to advance on those scarce BIPs is magnified.

[4twinsJA]

Can you call Buxton's hit a walk off? Buxton is a difference maker, able to contribute what no one else on team can, speed. 

[Gary_Wayne_Guy]

 

Ludicrous speed.

Buxton has gone to plaid!

[Otto von Ballpark]

The way Buxton looked overmatched in his two (6 pitch total) strikeouts? Not so sure the Tigers made a bad judgement call in pitching to him. They were probably hoping to punch him out again - but it was not to be!

Probably — but like I said, even punching him out there, the Tigers are still favored to lose with Buxton at 2B to begin the 10th.

 

And as we saw, if the Tigers pitcher fails to strike him out or pop him up, it’s game over.

 

I mean, there is no easy path to victory when the other team has runners at second and third in the final inning of a tie game, but I’d rather ask my pitcher to throw strikes to Marwin than to do what they did.

[Tcrem]

I wish to make two points about Rosario's baserunning in the ninth.

First, it was good for him to take second base on defensive indifference. That probably would not have had an impact on the outcome of the game because it would have been a difficult play for a charging shortstop to try for the force at second but it's still good to eliminate a force play.

Second, why was Rosario running on Buxton's ground ball? Or even taking a lead? There was no reason for him to leave second base. He should have been standing with his foot on the bag the whole time.

 

I agree with your first point but disagree with the second. There was no way Rosario was getting thrown out at third on that play. Rosario was trying to block the fielder’s view of the ground ball to try and cause confusion to the fielder. It is unlikely a major league shortstop will make an error on that play, but even if it costs him a fraction of a second with Buxton’s speed that could make all the difference.

[Trov]

 

It appears the Tigers made a major blunder by not simply waking Buxton in that spot. Yeah, it would have loaded the bases and reduced the pitcher’s margin for error in terms of walking the next batter (Marwin), but it would have:

1. Restored the force play at every base
2. Largely taken Buxton’s legs out of the situation
3. In the event the game remained tied and gone to extra innings, it would have put Marwin at 2B to start the 10th rather than Buxton.

As it was, pitching to Buxton there meant the Tigers were pretty much destined to lose, if not in that plate appearance then likely in the next inning or two.

What you are saying Gardenhire did not look at game situation and use his brain to make a good move?  I am shocked at this I mean the man never made a bad call in his entire time with Twins(if you cannot tell super sarcasim here)  Gardy was never good at thinking outside the box on a decision like that.  I fully agree walking Buxton was right move.  Dick even pointed out the stolen base/defensive indifference was not a small thing in case there is a ball that out could be made at second but harder for first.  Not sure they would have tried out at second on that same play.  Also, the point that if Buxton does fail he starts at second base something that changes the inning so much.  That is why I had been calling for Gardy being fired about 5 years before he finally was. 

[Trov]

 

I wish to make two points about Rosario's baserunning in the ninth.

First, it was good for him to take second base on defensive indifference. That probably would not have had an impact on the outcome of the game because it would have been a difficult play for a charging shortstop to try for the force at second but it's still good to eliminate a force play.

Second, why was Rosario running on Buxton's ground ball? Or even taking a lead? There was no reason for him to leave second base. He should have been standing with his foot on the bag the whole time.

I get the second point you want to make, that if Eddie runs and the short stop is able to tag him out prior to run crossing the plate then he made dumb move.  Eddie has never been a super heads up guy but more reactionary.  This would have also meant the short stop had same thoughts that I cannot get Buxton but can tag Eddie, however it would have required to happen before run crosses, so unless Eddie just gives himself up, which he never does on bases when he makes bad move, the short stop is not likely to try to tag him out.  Yes, the correct play would have been to stand on 2nd base the whole time and not even take a lead but that means going against thousands of innings of baseball instincts. 

[USAFChief]

If I'm managing, I pitch to Buxton over pitching to Gonzalez (with no open base) in that situation 100 times out of 100.

 

I HAVE to get out of that inning. Buxton gets thrown out on ground balls all the time, this one just happened to be pretty slowly hit.

 

And Who will be the runner at 2nd in the 8th, if we get that far, is way way down the list of concerns.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I didn’t understand the voluntarily pinch running for Rooker in the fifth, when you’ve already got a lineup of big plodding guys and some other guys dinged up, in a close game when you might want a pinch runner later. But, it worked out.

 

That last play! Interesting thoughts on Rosario being at second and then running past the shortstop at just the right moment. Shortstop did nothing wrong and Rosario didn’t really interfere. As someone else said elsewhere, if the shortstop had been hyper aware and thinking out scenarios prior to the ball put in play, he might throw home for the tag on Cruz. I do seem to recall infielders having made plays like that. But that’s a lot to expect in the moment.

 

But that was all Buxton!

Edited September 6, 2020 by Hosken Bombo Disco

[joefish]

Eddie thinking? Come on. Eddie was running because Eddie runs, not because he was thinking.

[joefish]

Eddie thinking? Come on. Eddie was running because Eddie runs, not because he was thinking.

[Nine of twelve]

 

If I'm managing, I pitch to Buxton over pitching to Gonzalez (with no open base) in that situation 100 times out of 100.

I HAVE to get out of that inning. Buxton gets thrown out on ground balls all the time, this one just happened to be pretty slowly hit.

And Who will be the runner at 2nd in the 8th, if we get that far, is way way down the list of concerns.

Who wasn't in the game. Sano was playing first.

[Nine of twelve]

 

I agree with your first point but disagree with the second. There was no way Rosario was getting thrown out at third on that play. Rosario was trying to block the fielder’s view of the ground ball to try and cause confusion to the fielder. It is unlikely a major league shortstop will make an error on that play, but even if it costs him a fraction of a second with Buxton’s speed that could make all the difference.

If this is why Rosario was running I suppose that's a good play. It would be interesting to hear from him and from Rocco about it.

[Shaitan]

 

It appears the Tigers made a major blunder by not simply waking Buxton in that spot. Yeah, it would have loaded the bases and reduced the pitcher’s margin for error in terms of walking the next batter (Marwin), but it would have:

1. Restored the force play at every base
2. Largely taken Buxton’s legs out of the situation
3. In the event the game remained tied and gone to extra innings, it would have put Marwin at 2B to start the 10th rather than Buxton.

As it was, pitching to Buxton there meant the Tigers were pretty much destined to lose, if not in that plate appearance then likely in the next inning or two.

 

Buxton also strikes out a lot and hits a lot of first pitch pop-ups. I'm not walking the hitter who had batted ninth for the Twins the past 3 years in this scenario.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If I'm managing, I pitch to Buxton over pitching to Gonzalez (with no open base) in that situation 100 times out of 100.

I HAVE to get out of that inning. Buxton gets thrown out on ground balls all the time, this one just happened to be pretty slowly hit.

And Who will be the runner at 2nd in the 8th, if we get that far, is way way down the list of concerns.

 

The runner at second is a fringe benefit of my strategy, not the primary motivator.

 

To get out of the 9th inning, 2 outs, runners on 2nd and 3rd, I want a force play at every base, and I don't want to get stuck in a footrace with Buxton.

 

I also don't think you can look at how Buxton runs on normal ground balls to assess how it would play out here. I'm sure Buxton hustles normally, but I am also sure there is a special motivator for him on the play, knowing that if he beats it out we win the game -- he was going to put every ounce of his special ability to use on this play.

 

Edit to add: for that matter, I'm not sure if ground ball rate is going to be accurate in this situation either. Buxton approaches a normal AB trying to drive a pitch to the outfield -- but when a ground ball to the left side could win the game, he's probably employing a different approach.