The Twins Pitching Contingent Has Struck Gold Again

[Andrew Thares]

We have seen time and time again the tremendous work that the Twins front office and coaching staff have done in identifying pitchers to bring into the organization, and then finding ways to get the most out of their game. In 2020, the have found a couple more diamonds in the rough and turned them into strong contributors in the Twins bullpen.Ever since the current regime took over control, after the 2016 season, we have seen a drastic philosophical shift in how the Twins approach pitching. This includes everything from the pitchers that they target to bring into the organization, to their coaching methods to get try and maximize the ceilings of each of their pitchers. This has paid off huge dividends, as in a few short years they have transformed the Twins pitching staff from perennial bottom dwellers to one of the best pitching staffs in baseball.

 

One of their great abilities has been their ability to take players who were once thought of as a lost cause and turn them into viable weapons in the bullpen. Last year, we saw this work exhibited with failed starter turned shut down reliever Tyler Duffey. As you may recall, Duffey was not even on the Twins 25-man roster to begin 2019, and by then end of the season he was one of their most trusted relievers. The main reason for this turn around came from a revamped approach to Duffey’s game. This year, they dug even deeper into the well and pulled out Caleb Thielbar and Matt Wisler and helped transform them into new and improved relievers that the Twins should be able to count on for outs in October.

 

We saw this growing faith in both Thielbar and Wisler on full display in Tuesday night’s win over the Chicago White Sox, when they were called upon in the seventh and ninth innings to help close out the one run victory, putting an end to the Twins six-game losing streak. While neither is among the first choices for Rocco Baldelli out of the pen at this point, Thielbar and Wisler have still shown that when called upon, they can get the job done.

 

Outside of Twins fans, Caleb Thielbar is a name that most baseball fans have probably never heard of, or don’t remember. After his initial stint with the Twins ended in 2015, Thielbar spent two seasons pitching for the St. Paul Saints in 2016 and 2017. This led to another shot in affiliated ball, as the Detroit Tigers signed him and sent him to Double-A Erie. He spent the next three years in both the Tigers and Braves organizations before finally making his way back up to the major league level with the Twins this season.

 

Throughout his career, Thielbar has never been much of a strikeout pitcher. In his first stint with the Twins, from 2013 through 2015, Thielbar had a strikeout rate of just 19.9%. During his next few years in the minors, that remained the case for Thielbar. However, everything changed for him in June of 2018, when he was sent back down to Double-A Erie after starting the season in Triple-A Toledo. Up to that point in the season, Thielbar had struck out just 9 batters in 17 innings pitched. After that point, though, Thielbar ramped it up, as he struck out 42 batters over his last 40 innings of the season. He continued that trend into 2019, where he struck out 94 batters in 78 and 1/3 innings pitched.

 

For the Twins, it was clear that Thielbar was a new and improved pitcher, even though nobody else saw it. Unfortunately, we do not have public access to the same tracking information for minor league players that we do for major league players, so it is hard to know exactly what led to this drastic improvement in Thielbar’s strikeout ability, but if I had to take a guess based on the limited amount of data we have on him so far this year, it is his pitch movement that has been giving hitters trouble. Here is a tweet from Jeremy Maschino that does a great job of illustrating this.

 

 

After giving up two runs in his first outing, both coming in the third inning of that appearance, Thielbar has thrown 8 and 1/3 scoreless innings, across 8 appearances. Over that stretch, Thielbar has struck out 12 batters, while allowing an opposing OPS of .315. Note, that is not an opposing OBP of .315, but an opposing OPS of .315. While it is still a small sample size, this is a side of him we never saw before, and based on his performance in the minors the last couple years, it is clear that this really is a new and improved Caleb Thielbar.

 

Matt Wisler, on the other hand, was a case of a new approach in 2019 that taken for face value was a failed experiment. Wisler had been slowing working on expanding his slider usage ever since he first moved to the bullpen in 2017. Last year, he went all-in on this approach, as he spiked the usage of his slider up from 47.0% in 2018 to 70.5% in 2019. The results were not that appealing, as his ERA in 2019 was 5.61, causing both the San Diego Padres and Seattle Mariners to all but give up on him.

 

However, the Twins didn’t see this as a failed experiment, but rather one with incomplete results. This led them to take a low risk flyer on Wisler, where they have encouraged him to go even further, as Wisler has increased his slider usage all the way up to 81.3% so far this year.

 

So, what was it that the Twins saw that led them to this hypothesis, and thus take a flyer on Wisler? The first thing was the small sample size of just 51 and 1/3 innings pitched by Wisler in 2019. In addition to that, nearly all of the underlying metrics were saying that Wisler was a much better pitcher in 2019 than his 5.61 ERA suggested. His FIP and xFIP stood at 4.17 and 3.83, respectively. Wisler drastically increased his strikeout rate from his career average of 16.4% up to 28.1%, while at the same time decreasing his walk rate from his career average of 8.5% down to 7.1%.

 

The Statcast metrics also like what Wisler was doing, as he produced career lows in Hard Hit Rate (34.5%), Barrel Rate (6.2%), xwOBA (.301) and xERA (3.84). For reference, Wisler’s xwOBA of .301 ranked 108th of the 362 qualified pitchers in 2019. Those are all very good numbers for a guy that nobody seemed to want this offseason. Relying on these advanced metrics, as opposed to the more traditional metrics, has paid off big for the Twins, as Wisler has allowed just two runs in the 16 and 2/3 innings he has pitched so far this season.

 

While neither Wisler nor Thielbar should expect to be featured heavily in the backend of the Twins bullpen before the end of the season, baring injury, both pitchers should absolutely expect to be in contention for a spot on the Twins Postseason roster, and look to help give them big outs in the stretch run of the season.

 

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[Rosterman]

I'm sad about Littell. Was expecting him to be a foundation for the bullpen future. Of course, he is still very young.

 

I just don't know the path for Trevor May. I thought of him as closer potential. But it will all boil down to contract talks.

 

[Vanimal46]

I used to have strong takes about relievers and spending top dollar to get the top free agents. This regime’s ability to develop relievers has shut me up about that. They don’t hit on a signing every single time, but they’ve shown they have the ability to cobble together a pretty decent bullpen with spare parts.

 

Next December when they pick up a guy and on the surface looks terrible, I’ll hesitate to assume it’s a wasted signing.

[blindeke]

Ramos for Capps!

[Seansy]

They have proven themselves to be reliable set up quality relivers imo. Wisler gave up two solo shots for his 2 ER. Thielbar gave up his ERs in his 3rd IP.

 

If Wisler cuts down the walks better he will be a major weapon with that slider of his. How long have Twins fans been desperate for a good second LHP after Rogers? This FO went "dumpster diving" and struck gold twice again this year after doing so last year as well.

 

Oh yeah, this is Wisler's first year of Arb and Caleb's 2nd prearb year this year so they will be around relatively cheaply for quite a while too

[bird]

Let's get greedy. I want to see some magic with the drafting of pitching prospects in later rounds and turning them into guys like Civale, Plesac, Clevenger, Bieber, etc.

 

I'm going to be watching their 2019 draft, hoping a couple of the (many) college pitchers they drafted become legit starters.

 

From what I see, virtually every team in the ALC has a superior talent pipeline, especially when it comes to pitching, with CLE being the ironic possible exception.

 

I'm not as convinced as others that we have upcoming replacements in 2021 for Odo, Pineda, Homer, and Hill.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm not as convinced as others that we have upcoming replacements in 2021 for Odo, Pineda, Homer, and Hill.

Pineda is signed through 2021. It's part of the deal the team received by signing someone who was suspended.

[ashbury]

but they’ve shown they have the ability to cobble together a pretty decent bullpen with spare parts.

This is an area where IMO regular season and post-season differ greatly. I consider the jury very much still out, and right now I don't see this bullpen as of the shut-down variety at all, not even necessarily playoff caliber. "Pretty decent" won't cut it, a month from now.

 

[Trov]

The FO and system seems to find value in relief pitchers, now lets get the same for starters in the system like Cleveland.  How crazy that they were able to trade away 3 pitchers that would most likely be our number 1 and number 1 on over half the teams and still have the best pitcher in baseball, and other great starters.  They know how to keep bringing in good starters and trading at good times to fill other wholes.  If their owner was willing to spend like Chicago does Cleveland could be super scary for many years.  I want to get to that point for Twins. 

[Vanimal46]

This is an area where IMO regular season and post-season differ greatly. I consider the jury very much still out, and right now I don't see this bullpen as of the shut-down variety at all, not even necessarily playoff caliber. "Pretty decent" won't cut it, a month from now.

 

I understand that sentiment. Relievers are the kings of SSS so the shut down heroes can come from unlikely sources. Such as Daniel Hudson for Washington last year. Left for dead in 2016-2018, then a magical run in 2019 for Washington. Now he’s back to being a dud.

 

Similarly, Joe Kelly and Nathan Eovaldi were heroes during Boston’s run to the WS in 2018. Now Joe Kelly can’t hit a 25 foot net in his backyard without breaking a window

[Danchat]

 

Let's get greedy. I want to see some magic with the drafting of pitching prospects in later rounds and turning them into guys like Civale, Plesac, Clevenger, Bieber, etc.

 

I'm going to be watching their 2019 draft, hoping a couple of the (many) college pitchers they drafted become legit starters.

 

From what I see, virtually every team in the ALC has a superior talent pipeline, especially when it comes to pitching, with CLE being the ironic possible exception.

 

I'm not as convinced as others that we have upcoming replacements in 2021 for Odo, Pineda, Homer, and Hill.

I'm hoping we can get to that point too. We're still at the point where the Terry Ryan-drafted prospects are still making their debuts (guys like Balazovic and Blankenhorn are TR prospects!). In an ideal world we'd have a couple of Kohl Stewart, Tyler Jay, Fernando Romero, Stephen Gonsalves, and Lewis Thorpe in the rotation - but due to that group's failure to contribute, it's left the pipeline dry. Hopefully we can get some of Duran, Cole Sands, Josh Winder, Bailey Ober, Blayne Enlow, Luis Rijo, Matt Canterino, and Dakota Chalmers to come up and contribute. But thanks to the minor leagues being cancelled, it's going to take longer to make that reality come to pass. 

 

We'll likely see another offseason with a couple starters signed, possibly on one year deals, but I am hoping they go for an ace in a trade. We just aren't at the point yet where the Falvey/Levine pitching prospects are ready, but the time will come.

[mike8791]

Got to agree with Andrew about these two.  They are solid additions to the bullpen - two nice finds by the FO.  But let's not equate their additions to what is needed in playoff competition.  As particularly shown by Rogers alarming dropoff(2BS, 3Ls), we do not have anywhere near a shutdown bullpen.  Can anyone name reliable 7th, 8th, and 9th inning relievers against the Yankees(or Rays or A's) in a short playoff, meaning guys you have absoliute confidence in?  Not only has Rogers failed, but guys like Romo, Clippard, May and Duffy - the big five - have all failed in some late-inning relief situations in the first 36 games!  Sure, they've each had good stretches, but how many times have each blown leads?

 

I think the talent is there, but Rocco's bullpen usage has been far too erratic.  By this time in a season, our relievers should have well-defined roles.  We do not, partly because of Rocco's babying of his starters. How many games have our starters completed 6 or 7 innings in this year?  How many games have we burned the pen by relying on "bullpen games" ?  And how often has he overworked the bullpen by pitching them 2 or even 3 days in a row?

 

I know, lots of injuries, not sufficient conditioning, etc.  So why can't we revert back to a 5 man rotation instead of six and why not encourage our best starters to push into the 7th inning?  These men are all veteran major leaguers who should be in mid-season form by now.  When Odo returns, pick the top 5 and go with them thru September.  Quit sticking with an obvious flailing closer and pick someone else(is Wisler the guy?  Alcala? Romo?  Not my decision, but Rocco has to make some major league decisions now.  With 5 games coming up against the Tigers, there are no more excuses left.  5-8 against KC & Det is totally unacceptable for a team with WC aspirations!

[ashbury]

I understand that sentiment. Relievers are the kings of SSS so the shut down heroes can come from unlikely sources.

Stats are a snare, I agree. I tend to take a shut-down bullpen seriously when I see opposing batters slam their bat in disgust after swinging late on a fastball. That tells you the mix of pitches is so deadly that the batter can't defend against the heater, which is the last thing any batter with an ounce of pride allows himself to get beaten on. A very subjective metric, obviously, but one that the opponent isn't very good at hiding so it seems trustworthy. And I don't think we're there yet, compared to some other teams' pens that have been difference makers in the post-season.

 

[ChrisKnutson]

This is the reason why I want Falvey to take a chance and trade for Edwin Diaz in the offseason. It’s one thing to turn lost causes into serviceable relievers, it’s another to harness the stuff of a relief ace.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think the talent is there, but Rocco's bullpen usage has been far too erratic. By this time in a season, our relievers should have well-defined roles. We do not, partly because of Rocco's babying of his starters. How many games have our starters completed 6 or 7 innings in this year? How many games have we burned the pen by relying on "bullpen games" ? And how often has he overworked the bullpen by pitching them 2 or even 3 days in a row?

A big reason the bullpen has been so effective is *because* Baldelli hasn’t been a slave to dedicating relievers based on the inning (which doesn’t make sense when you think about it) but instead using relievers based on favorable matchup.

 

If it’s the 8th inning and three lefties are coming up, using Romo is a good way to lose baseball games. If it’s the 9th inning and three righties are coming up, Rogers is not your best pitcher in that situation.

 

What Baldelli is doing makes a ton of sense and the bullpen performs better because of it.

[DocBauer]

I am ever the optimist. I think everyone here knows this. And I have been very impressed thus far with both these guys and am completely surprised by Thielbar. And I really like this OP and the breakdown. But for a moment, let me also play devil's advocate.

 

I made a half joking half serious comment in a game thread a week or so ago that despite being less "hairy" and not throwing from such a low angle, that Wisler might be another Romo. And he just might be. But Romo has been doing this for some time and has obviously made adjustments over his lengthy career. Wisler is younger and throws harder. Last I heard, his FB rests anywhere from 92-94ish, but lacks control and maybe movement. He needs to be able to rely on it once in a while to throw off the batter. Can he do that consistently? On top of that, most high end RP still have a back pocket 3rd pitch they at least "show" once in a while to keep the hitter guessing. Can he throw a change once in a while or develop a cutter or split to advance to the next level of dependability, if not dominance? SSS thus far and we will see.

 

On the opposite side of things, velocity, age and arm, we have Thielbar. The statistics provided are outstanding. The video clips and early results are encouraging. Everything he has done over the past few seasons converting himself from a mediocre SP with control to a high spin rate RP is a fun and wonderful story. (Still no clue why Detroit didn't hold on to him. Behind the analytical times?) He hasn't looked the part of a 33yo re-tread thus far. But can he maintain that spin rate and movement with control over the long haul? Again, we're talking a SAW.

 

Don't get me wrong. I'm encouraged by both, especially Wisler, with youth and velocity on his side and even greater potential. I think this FO and the coaching staff are very savvy. I'm just playing devil's advocate here.

[DocBauer]

This is an area where IMO regular season and post-season differ greatly. I consider the jury very much still out, and right now I don't see this bullpen as of the shut-down variety at all, not even necessarily playoff caliber. "Pretty decent" won't cut it, a month from now.

 

Jury is still out. I agree. But this pen was being built last season in the 2nd half. And we've added pieces since then. (Man I feel sorry for and miss Littell). And we've added more since last season. And the Twins wouldn't be where they are right now without the pen, despite a few hiccups recently. (Normal or over-used I'm not certain)

 

A great pen is never a great pen until they prove it. So far, I think they have. But we really won't know for sure until the season plays out. I'm starting to feel good about the rotation at this point, and wasn't a week and a half ago. And that could go a long way to establishing this pen for what we hope and believe they could be.

[bird]

 

I understand that sentiment. Relievers are the kings of SSS so the shut down heroes can come from unlikely sources. Such as Daniel Hudson for Washington last year. Left for dead in 2016-2018, then a magical run in 2019 for Washington. Now he’s back to being a dud.

Similarly, Joe Kelly and Nathan Eovaldi were heroes during Boston’s run to the WS in 2018. Now Joe Kelly can’t hit a 25 foot net in his backyard without breaking a window

 

 

I understand ash's sentiments too. I take minor solace from the fact that, because an effective bullpen is a numbers game, I see evidence that Falvey is trying to keep the numbers up. And when the postseason comes, we often see obvious heroes become goats and obscure pitchers often make a name for themselves. 

[Crackedfungo]

The one I am very intrigued by not mentioned much here is Alcala.  He has the stuff, and is developing the control and confidence.  That trade looks much better as he develops.  I like his focus and fire too - necessary as a closer.  Could he produce in a big game against the Yankees?  Time will tell, but he has the stuff.

 

I think we lose May after this year.  I think Rogers rebounds, and Alcala becomes a RH force if he maintains command/control.  I do want to see Colina and Chalmers (if he improves control soon).  Colina has high-end gas, and Chalmers has an almost unhittable couple of pitches IF he has control.  His BBs are well-known, but his BAA is just sick at times. 

 

Future is not dim if we lose a few of our mainstays.

[jmlease1]

The reality is that relievers are among the fungible position in MLB, despite the increased importance of the bullpen in the age of 5-inning starters. There just aren't very many guys who are worth dropping large contracts on for things like a "proven closer".

 

It's increasingly clear that you can do more and more with converting failed starters into quality relievers because often those starters have a plus pitch and have been trying to get by with 2-3 others that are average at best. As a reliever you can get away with throwing 60-70% 1 pitch; as a starter there aren't a lot of guys who can do that. It's tough as a starter to survive with only 2 pitches; as a reliever you're just fine throwing basically 2 pitches.

 

The Twins are leaning into this concept and it's working for them. Grab guys with an elite pitch, ramp up that usage, and figure out which of their other pitches is the best off-set to that pitch and make that the secondary. They're going back to the idea of bullpens that respond to situations and lineups, rather than giving guys roles defined by innings and saves. It's smart and lets you have a stronger and more effective bullpen, while also keeping you from paying a premium for a role rather than a talent.

 

If the Twins pay May or Rogers serious money it's going to be because they see them as guys who are firemen who can shut down the best parts of a lineup, not because they need them to pitch the 9th. They're going to give money to relievers who can be counted on to pitch a second inning at times. That's a better use of money than tossing cash at a guy to pitch the 9th in a "save" situation. Pay for talent, not a pre-determined role...which will also be better for the players too. More relievers will get paid if they're not just competing to be a "closer".

[bird]

 

The reality is that relievers are among the fungible position in MLB, despite the increased importance of the bullpen in the age of 5-inning starters. There just aren't very many guys who are worth dropping large contracts on for things like a "proven closer".

 

It's increasingly clear that you can do more and more with converting failed starters into quality relievers because often those starters have a plus pitch and have been trying to get by with 2-3 others that are average at best. As a reliever you can get away with throwing 60-70% 1 pitch; as a starter there aren't a lot of guys who can do that. It's tough as a starter to survive with only 2 pitches; as a reliever you're just fine throwing basically 2 pitches.

 

The Twins are leaning into this concept and it's working for them. Grab guys with an elite pitch, ramp up that usage, and figure out which of their other pitches is the best off-set to that pitch and make that the secondary. They're going back to the idea of bullpens that respond to situations and lineups, rather than giving guys roles defined by innings and saves. It's smart and lets you have a stronger and more effective bullpen, while also keeping you from paying a premium for a role rather than a talent.

 

If the Twins pay May or Rogers serious money it's going to be because they see them as guys who are firemen who can shut down the best parts of a lineup, not because they need them to pitch the 9th. They're going to give money to relievers who can be counted on to pitch a second inning at times. That's a better use of money than tossing cash at a guy to pitch the 9th in a "save" situation. Pay for talent, not a pre-determined role...which will also be better for the players too. More relievers will get paid if they're not just competing to be a "closer".

 

 

Great post.

 

But it made me think about whether they're making progress on a starter strategy, and just what that strategy is. They have Maeda, Pineda, and Berrios back in 2021, but do they have enough starting pitching talent in the high minors in comparison to their rivals? When I look at the list, I see that every opponent in the division has a greater number (either one or two more) of pitching prospects that grade out at 50FV or better than the Twins, who count Balazovic, Duran, Enlow, and Canterino in that category.

 

But because it's a numbers game, it concerns me that MLB.com only regards Colina and Sands as worthy of a 45FV grade. In comparison, KCR and CLE have nine and six of those respectively, and both CWS and DET have a couple more than the Twins. Despite the current apparent roster depth, the pitching pipeline could use some help for the future.