Article: Ben Revere Traded to Philly for RHP Vance Worley & Top Pitching Prospect

[CDog]

does this mean joe mauer bats leadoff?

 

Barring any acquisitions, my guess is second with Carroll slotting in first (unless Hicks grabs that spot).

 

How sure are we that Carroll is even going to start? Obviously utility guys get a fair amount of time, and maybe even especially so with this year's roster of young, unproven starters in the infield...but I find it a little hard to imagine them going with a leadoff guy who isn't expected to be in the linuep most every day. I'm really quite curious to see how the batting order plays out.

[DaveW]

After glancing through a few Phillies fan-sites, I'm struck by the reactions, as compared with most of those here.

 

Phillies fans are seeing the addition of a young, team-controlled CF with a lot of upside. Twins fans like Revere, but I think it's safe to say most of us doubt how much upside he has.

 

Twins fans are pumped about getting a top 100 pitching prospect in May. Phillies fans seem to consider May a "former top prospect" who lost that standing with a bad season in 2012.

 

Twins fans see Worley as immediately becoming the current #1 SP in the Twins rotation. Phillies fans frown a bit about losing a "solid" starting pitcher, but feel that's the price you pay and aren't too concerned because there appear to be a number of "back of the rotation" arms available on the FA market.

 

Just goes to show how perspectives affect things. The Twins have enough OF depth in the system that the idea of giving up pitching to get an OF is totally foreign. The Phillies have a rotation with multiple CY winners and consider losing Worely an inconvenient necessity, at worst.

 

Philly fans are widely regarded as the worst/dumbest/drunkest/*******ish in all of sports. So I wouldn't read to much into it.

[AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS]

I think 13 is shaping up to be a rough year. And a season I will spend much more time watching than last.

 

Funny how it works that way, isn't it? The true fans are more excited than ever while casual fans are moping that we "lost" Smiley McGee.

 

Exactly as a true fan you have to be excited about this. I can get why casual fans are a little upset. But this trade needed to happen for the Twins whether they like it or not.

[Sanibelchuck]

Was out to Hammond Sradium this morning and Joe Benson is in Fort Myers. He has been working out in the mornings on the back practice fields.

[joeboo_22]

CDog.... the Twins have yet to trade their manager, so I have a very good suspicion Carroll will start. Wouldn't be surprised if Mastronni (sp) is 1 and Carroll is 2, just how Gardy thinks things through sometimes.

[Mike Sixel]

Brock, I think I like you even more now....thanks for the quote and smile.

[LaBombo]

Interesting that we actually got more for Revere than we did for Span. I'd put May between Meyers and Gibson. Worley becomes the number 2 starter, for the time being, behind Scott Diamond.

 

For what it's worth, the James projection thinks Worley's ERA should be about a half run better than Diamond's.

 

I assume that projection was for the NL, not AL.

 

Yes. He'll lose some K's and accumulate some ER's with the move to the AL. That being said, this trade instantly looks worse if you assume Worley is out-pitched by Diamond in 2013. If he's healthy, I think Worley is the better pitcher, which is part of the reason I like the trade.

[Sanibelchuck]

Jake Mauer was named manager of the Cedar Rapids Kernals (Low A). Sounds like a demotion to me since he was manager of the High A Fort Myers Miracle for the past 3 years.

[jokin]

CDog.... the Twins have yet to trade their manager, so I have a very good suspicion Carroll will start. Wouldn't be surprised if Mastronni (sp) is 1 and Carroll is 2, just how Gardy thinks things through sometimes.

 

What's the line in Vegas on this outcome? Book it!

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yes. He'll lose some K's and accumulate some ER's with the move to the AL. That being said, this trade instantly looks worse if you assume Worley is out-pitched by Diamond in 2013. If he's healthy, I think Worley is the better pitcher, which is part of the reason like the trade.

 

I'd put Diamond and Worley pretty close to one another in the AL on the same team with the slight nod going to Worley. What I find interesting is Worley's HR/9 rate in Philly (0.8 in 2012, 0.7 in 2011 & 2010). Will he give up a homerun in Target Field? That bodes well if the Twins can get a decent infield defense behind him (not a great GB rate but not bad, either).

[dwintheiser]

In general terms, I like the trade myself, but I'm noticing a couple of things not being mentioned:

 

- People are putting the trade in terms of Revere's value, but I think the trade from the Phillies' side has more to do with them having went from 102 wins in 2011 to .500 last year. Their front office likely thinks they're still a prime team, and giving up good pieces that won't get them to their goal next year is OK if you get a piece that will. Revere isn't a star, but if he does what the Phillies expect, which is get on base and play great CF defense, then he'll help them work back up in the standings. (I guess the 'right place at the right time' folks may be making this point, but it seemed pretty oblique compared to the 'oh, look how valuable Revere really was' crowd.)

 

- I think the idea that this trade helps the Twins be competitive in 2013 is pretty silly - after all, if the Phillies thought the players they gave up would help them win more in 2013, they wouldn't have traded them, right? After all, the big failure in Philly wasn't on offense, but in defense and pitching -- they allowed about a run per game more in 2012 than they did in 2011. Revere will help with that, but not by a full run per game.

 

- I also think that if people really think Hicks's upside is rookie-year Torii Hunter, then there's no reason to start him in center in 2013 no matter how good his spring happens to be -- to justify starting his free agent clock early and possibly burning an entire year of eligibility via super-two status, he's got to be ROY-caliber material.

 

I'm finding the 'conspiracy theory' of having a number of Twins future performers starting at AAA this year, where they'll get to work with Paul Molitor as a roving consultant, prior to Gardy being replaced by Molitor for the start of the 2014 season to be more and more credible.

[LaBombo]

CDog.... the Twins have yet to trade their manager, so I have a very good suspicion Carroll will start. Wouldn't be surprised if Mastronni (sp) is 1 and Carroll is 2, just how Gardy thinks things through sometimes.

 

When a guy who wasn't a star in his prime is 39 and plays a position that's hard on guys half his age, it may be less a less a question of a quirky manager wanting him to be an everyday player and more a question of him being physically able to handle it. Either way, they'll probably pick up a veteran glove who can't hit.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

I CAN'T BELIEVE THIS HAPPENED!! TR is a GOD!!!

[jokin]

In general terms, I like the trade myself, but I'm noticing a couple of things not being mentioned:

 

- People are putting the trade in terms of Revere's value, but I think the trade from the Phillies' side has more to do with them having went from 102 wins in 2011 to .500 last year. Their front office likely thinks they're still a prime team, and giving up good pieces that won't get them to their goal next year is OK if you get a piece that will. Revere isn't a star, but if he does what the Phillies expect, which is get on base and play great CF defense, then he'll help them work back up in the standings. (I guess the 'right place at the right time' folks may be making this point, but it seemed pretty oblique compared to the 'oh, look how valuable Revere really was' crowd.)

 

- I think the idea that this trade helps the Twins be competitive in 2013 is pretty silly - after all, if the Phillies thought the players they gave up would help them win more in 2013, they wouldn't have traded them, right? After all, the big failure in Philly wasn't on offense, but in defense and pitching -- they allowed about a run per game more in 2012 than they did in 2011. Revere will help with that, but not by a full run per game.

 

- I also think that if people really think Hicks's upside is rookie-year Torii Hunter, then there's no reason to start him in center in 2013 no matter how good his spring happens to be -- to justify starting his free agent clock early and possibly burning an entire year of eligibility via super-two status, he's got to be ROY-caliber material.

 

I'm finding the 'conspiracy theory' of having a number of Twins future performers starting at AAA this year, where they'll get to work with Paul Molitor as a roving consultant, prior to Gardy being replaced by Molitor for the start of the 2014 season to be more and more credible.

 

Great summation, except Gardy could very well be replaced during the 2013 run if the start is as abysmal as the two previous seasons.

[Riverbrian]

does this mean joe mauer bats leadoff?

 

Barring any acquisitions, my guess is second with Carroll slotting in first (unless Hicks grabs that spot).

 

How sure are we that Carroll is even going to start? Obviously utility guys get a fair amount of time, and maybe even especially so with this year's roster of young, unproven starters in the infield...but I find it a little hard to imagine them going with a leadoff guy who isn't expected to be in the linuep most every day. I'm really quite curious to see how the batting order plays out.

 

Jeez Dog... I'm quite curious to see how the rest of the off season plays out first.

[jokin]

Jake Mauer was named manager of the Cedar Rapids Kernals (Low A). Sounds like a demotion to me since he was manager of the High A Fort Myers Miracle for the past 3 years.

 

Is that supposed to be an indicative of some change regarding Joe Mauer's status as a Twin?

[snepp]

Looks like the Twins made out alright.

[LaBombo]

The Hicks love is getting a little out of hand. He had a good, not great, year in double A. That means time at triple A, and the departure of Revere and Span should have exactly zero impact on that if the Twins are smart.

[Guest USAFChief]

Waited to respond to think a bit: Impossible not to like this trade, but mostly because I don't see much long term value in Ben Revere, and there are potentially superior replacement on the near term horizon. There are, however, significant warts on both returning pitchers. Worley needs to prove he's healthy, and those calling May a "top 100 prospect" are probably going to be disappointed when 2013 lists come out and he's not on them.

 

Still and all, impossible not to like this trade. Revere for Worley was probably fair, so adding May is gravy, and lord knows the Twins need pitching at every level of the organization. May adds to the possibilities, and with a big arm to boot.

[CDog]

Jeez Dog... I'm quite curious to see how the rest of the off season plays out first.

 

Me too! But future playing out is likely only going to lead to more questions!

[Riverbrian]

Jeez Dog... I'm quite curious to see how the rest of the off season plays out first.

 

Me too! But future playing out is likely only going to lead to more questions!

 

 

With every tick of the clock!

[DaveW]

 

- I think the idea that this trade helps the Twins be competitive in 2013 is pretty silly - after all, if the Phillies thought the players they gave up would help them win more in 2013, they wouldn't have traded them, right? After all, the big failure in Philly wasn't on offense, but in defense and pitching -- they allowed about a run per game more in 2012 than they did in 2011. Revere will help with that, but not by a full run per game.

 

 

The big failure in Philly last year was their bad offense and injuries. Heading into this year Philly has plenty of pitching, but a ton of holes on offense. The Twins have/had a ton of holes pitching wise and quite a bit of CF/O depth.

 

This trade makes both teams better for 2013. And the Twins much better for 2014+

[NoCryingInBaseball]

Haven't weighed in yet, just gotta say...great Trade!

[crapforks]

Doesn't this remind anyone of a Twins trade, but backwards?

[Squirrel]

I'm suddenly excited for Spring Training.

[Brock Beauchamp]

doesn't this remind anyone of a bill smith trade, but backwards?

 

fify.

[iastfan112]

Waited to respond to think a bit: Impossible not to like this trade, but mostly because I don't see much long term value in Ben Revere, and there are potentially superior replacement on the near term horizon. There are, however, significant warts on both returning pitchers. Worley needs to prove he's healthy, and those calling May a "top 100 prospect" are probably going to be disappointed when 2013 lists come out and he's not on them.

 

Still and all, impossible not to like this trade. Revere for Worley was probably fair, so adding May is gravy, and lord knows the Twins need pitching at every level of the organization. May adds to the possibilities, and with a big arm to boot.

 

Good take. No way Mays makes top 100's, my guess is he's in the 150-200 range. Sickels gut reactions was to give him a B- grade, that'd put him in the 9th-12th range for the Twins.

[jokin]

 

- I think the idea that this trade helps the Twins be competitive in 2013 is pretty silly - after all, if the Phillies thought the players they gave up would help them win more in 2013, they wouldn't have traded them, right? After all, the big failure in Philly wasn't on offense, but in defense and pitching -- they allowed about a run per game more in 2012 than they did in 2011. Revere will help with that, but not by a full run per game.

 

 

The big failure in Philly last year was their bad offense and injuries. Heading into this year Philly has plenty of pitching, but a ton of holes on offense. The Twins have/had a ton of holes pitching wise and quite a bit of CF/O depth.

 

This trade makes both teams better for 2013. And the Twins much better for 2014+[/quote]

 

 

 

'14 yes. '13 is still up in the air regarding the Twins. As of today, December 6th, there are now more holes/???s in the roster make-up than last year.

[dwintheiser]

The big failure in Philly last year was their bad offense and injuries.

 

If you say so, man, but you got me interested if I'd looked at the numbers wrong:

 

Phillies 2011:

runs scored = 713

runs allowed = 529

 

Phillies 2012:

runs scored = 684

runs allowed = 680

 

Looks like a breakdown on defense to me. And if the problem on defense was injuries to starting pitchers, well *we just traded for the guy who replaced those injured starters*. That doesn't fill me with confidence.

 

This trade makes both teams better for 2013. And the Twins much better for 2014+

 

I don't see how this trade makes the Twins any better in 2013, if you assume Hicks isn't going to play because he's not ready. If Hicks is ready, then it's addition by subtraction, but that there's an argument rather than widespread consensus that this is his year (as there was when the Twins dealt Pierzynski) suggests to me that the 'Twins are better next year with this trade' is arguable. Add in the Span trade, and the Twins are clearly not better on offense than they were last year, and offense was about the only thing they did well -- in spots. I won't argue with you about 2014+, because I agree that long-term, restocking the farm system with pitching is a good thing and should, with luck, pay off.

 

I do know the trades have had one concrete impact already -- one season ticket holder I know is not renewing her tickets for next year. So you'll probably have an easier time scoring good seats to watch the 2013 Twins, better or worse.

[Jim Crikket]

- I think the idea that this trade helps the Twins be competitive in 2013 is pretty silly - after all, if the Phillies thought the players they gave up would help them win more in 2013, they wouldn't have traded them, right? After all, the big failure in Philly wasn't on offense, but in defense and pitching -- they allowed about a run per game more in 2012 than they did in 2011. Revere will help with that, but not by a full run per game.

 

- I also think that if people really think Hicks's upside is rookie-year Torii Hunter, then there's no reason to start him in center in 2013 no matter how good his spring happens to be -- to justify starting his free agent clock early and possibly burning an entire year of eligibility via super-two status, he's got to be ROY-caliber material.

 

I'd probably take issue with these two points to some degree.

 

First, the Twins and Phillies are in vastly different places. The Phils were a .500 team who believe they should be much better than that. Just because they see Worley as expendable doesn't mean he can't be a considerable help to the Twins, who lost a bazillion games the past 2 seasons and would probably be pretty satisfied getting back to .500. I don't think it's at all silly for the Twins and their fans to think a healthy Worley could help raise them to that level of competitiveness. Nobody is saying he's ALL the Twins need to be competitive, but he can and should "help".

 

I also think the Twins should be at the point where worrying about when they start a player's service time clock just isn't a big factor. I'm not sure Hicks will be ready to play Big League baseball. If he's not, he should go to Rochester. But if an honest evaluation determines that he either IS ready or will benefit more by playing every day in Minn than in Rochester, that's what he should do... regardless of what it means for his service time. By 2018 or 2019 or whenever he becomes eligible for free agency, Buxton or Kepler or someone else will probably be ready to replace him (or already have done so). If not and if the Twins feel he's worth keeping along the way, they should have signed him to a nice extension. This should no longer be a team scrimping nickels by playing games with service time.