Gammons: Red Sox willing to take on all of Mauer's contract

[Brock Beauchamp]

So the question ultimately comes down to are a few thousand fans a game in 2013 &2014 worth $23M when the Twins are competitive again? Keep in mind the Twins could use that $23M to go out and get a big name splash to replace Joe Mauer. How does Ryan Dempster AND Shaun Marcum sound?

 

While I don't entirely disagree with much of your post, I want to focus on this. Dempster and Marcum will hamstring the payroll as bad or worse than Mauer and even when combined, equate to a similar amount of wins (Mauer is roughly a 5 win player, Marcum/Dempster combined are 5 win players). Both are older than Mauer and from 2013-2015 (not getting either for less than three years, probably more with Marcum), will be more expensive and declining more rapidly than Joe due to advanced age (mostly Dempster).

 

To boot, to get both those guys, you're looking at paying at least $25m a year, probably more.

 

Keeping Mauer is a risk. There's no denying that. But considering free agent salaries this offseason, Mauer's production per dollar is actually good compared to what these other clowns are getting on the market. It's absurd to think that BJ Upton is a $15m player or that Jeremy-freakin-Guthrie is an $8m guy. And just LOL at Shane Victorino at $13m.

 

This offseason is bananas. If you even manage to get rid of Mauer, that $23m you spend to replace him is going to bring you less in return than Joe.

 

With that said, I'm not against trading him if a team offers the farm for ol' Joe.

[AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS]

If the Sox offered up Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, Boegarts, Barnes and Webster you'd have to listen, right???

 

Exactly! Im indifferent about trading Mauer. I love watching him play. But if its best for the team to trade em, do what ya gotta do!

[jokin]

So the question ultimately comes down to are a few thousand fans a game in 2013 &2014 worth $23M when the Twins are competitive again? Keep in mind the Twins could use that $23M to go out and get a big name splash to replace Joe Mauer. How does Ryan Dempster AND Shaun Marcum sound?

 

While I don't entirely disagree with much of your post, I want to focus on this. Dempster and Marcum will hamstring the payroll as bad or worse than Mauer and even when combined, equate to a similar amount of wins (Mauer is roughly a 5 win player, Marcum/Dempster combined are 5 win players). Both are older than Mauer and from 2013-2015 (not getting either for less than three years, probably more with Marcum), will be more expensive and declining more rapidly than Joe due to advanced age (mostly Dempster).

 

To boot, to get both those guys, you're looking at paying at least $25m a year, probably more.

 

Keeping Mauer is a risk. There's no denying that. But considering free agent salaries this offseason, Mauer's production per dollar is actually good compared to what these other clowns are getting on the market. It's absurd to think that BJ Upton is a $15m player or that Jeremy-freakin-Guthrie is an $8m guy. And just LOL at Shane Victorino at $13m.

 

This offseason is bananas. If you even manage to get rid of Mauer, that $23m you spend to replace him is going to bring you less in return than Joe.

 

With that said, I'm not against trading him if a team offers the farm for ol' Joe.

 

The Twins moves are indicating that a chief priority in rebuilding the pitching staff is getting much younger. The days of Pavano signings are over for now. They appear to be aligning a team like the early 80s team, a young group all playing for a pittance and taking their lumps while maturing together to make a strong run like they did from 87-92 and 04-10. This philosophy demands that if the Sox would make an offer something close to Middlebrooks, Bogaerts, Salty and a SP, you have to make that deal for Mauer.

[Oxtung]

So the question ultimately comes down to are a few thousand fans a game in 2013 &2014 worth $23M when the Twins are competitive again? Keep in mind the Twins could use that $23M to go out and get a big name splash to replace Joe Mauer. How does Ryan Dempster AND Shaun Marcum sound?

 

While I don't entirely disagree with much of your post, I want to focus on this. Dempster and Marcum will hamstring the payroll as bad or worse than Mauer and even when combined, equate to a similar amount of wins (Mauer is roughly a 5 win player, Marcum/Dempster combined are 5 win players). Both are older than Mauer and from 2013-2015 (not getting either for less than three years, probably more with Marcum), will be more expensive and declining more rapidly than Joe due to advanced age (mostly Dempster).

 

To boot, to get both those guys, you're looking at paying at least $25m a year, probably more.

 

Keeping Mauer is a risk. There's no denying that. But considering free agent salaries this offseason, Mauer's production per dollar is actually good compared to what these other clowns are getting on the market. It's absurd to think that BJ Upton is a $15m player or that Jeremy-freakin-Guthrie is an $8m guy. And just LOL at Shane Victorino at $13m.

 

This offseason is bananas. If you even manage to get rid of Mauer, that $23m you spend to replace him is going to bring you less in return than Joe.

 

With that said, I'm not against trading him if a team offers the farm for ol' Joe.

 

I don't really disagree with much of what you're saying but you seem to be missing my larger point. Dempster and Marcum only lock that $23M up for 2-3 years. That means when the Twins need payroll flexibility the most they will have it. Come 2016 when we need that starting 2B we will have the cash to go get him.

 

Here's another bonus of the "Dempster/Marcum" approach (again, it could be any players...I just threw those 2 out there). Mauer's contract makes him very difficult to move. Dempster/Marcum could very well be tradeable in the future for more prospects. Which of course then frees up the $23M again to go sign some big names the next season. Does anyone think that there won't be a market in July or next December for good starting pitching?

[Oxtung]

Of course, as someone said earlier, this is all probably a moot point. I find it HIGHLY unlikely that Mauer would wave his no trade clause.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't really disagree with much of what you're saying but you seem to be missing my larger point. Dempster and Marcum only lock that $23M up for 2-3 years.

 

This is where we're disagreeing and this changes the entire argument based on perspective.

 

I think Dempster gets three years and Marcum gets four. I don't see anybody outside of scrubs getting two year deals this offseason.

 

As for trading either of them in a year or two, that is definitely something to consider.

[ericchri]

Make Dustin Pedroia part of the package coming back, and I'm on board...

[Oxtung]

I don't really disagree with much of what you're saying but you seem to be missing my larger point. Dempster and Marcum only lock that $23M up for 2-3 years.

 

This is where we're disagreeing and this changes the entire argument based on perspective.

 

I think Dempster gets three years and Marcum gets four. I don't see anybody outside of scrubs getting two year deals this offseason.

 

As for trading either of them in a year or two, that is definitely something to consider.

 

I think I am right back to my original point. People are seemingly dismissing this out of hand. I think that is a mistake. There are some potentially very big benefits. Just how big those benefits ended up depends on exactly how things would play out. I don't think this is a cut and dry "HELL NO!" answer I guess.

[iastfan112]

So the question ultimately comes down to are a few thousand fans a game in 2013 &2014 worth $23M when the Twins are competitive again? Keep in mind the Twins could use that $23M to go out and get a big name splash to replace Joe Mauer. How does Ryan Dempster AND Shaun Marcum sound?

 

While I don't entirely disagree with much of your post, I want to focus on this. Dempster and Marcum will hamstring the payroll as bad or worse than Mauer and even when combined, equate to a similar amount of wins (Mauer is roughly a 5 win player, Marcum/Dempster combined are 5 win players). Both are older than Mauer and from 2013-2015 (not getting either for less than three years, probably more with Marcum), will be more expensive and declining more rapidly than Joe due to advanced age (mostly Dempster).

 

To boot, to get both those guys, you're looking at paying at least $25m a year, probably more.

 

Keeping Mauer is a risk. There's no denying that. But considering free agent salaries this offseason, Mauer's production per dollar is actually good compared to what these other clowns are getting on the market. It's absurd to think that BJ Upton is a $15m player or that Jeremy-freakin-Guthrie is an $8m guy. And just LOL at Shane Victorino at $13m.

 

This offseason is bananas. If you even manage to get rid of Mauer, that $23m you spend to replace him is going to bring you less in return than Joe.

 

With that said, I'm not against trading him if a team offers the farm for ol' Joe.

 

Disagree with you partially Pig. Upton's been somewhere between a 3-4 win player and is under 30, his contract is pretty much market value. Victorino, again 3-4 win player(5.9 two years ago!). Little bit older so lower payout. I'll agree Mauer will be a solid contract if he keeps up his production for a few more years. The big question will be how well he holds up, if he can keep this 5 win plateau for a the next 2 years and then go into a more typical .5 win decline per year the contract will be viewed as fair. If it starts earlier than that we have a problem, even with inflation.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Disagree with you partially Pig. Upton's been somewhere between a 3-4 win player and is under 30, his contract is pretty much market value. Victorino, again 3-4 win player(5.9 two years ago!). Little bit older so lower payout. I'll agree Mauer will be a solid contract if he keeps up his production for a few more years. The big question will be how well he holds up, if he can keep this 5 win plateau for a the next 2 years and then go into a more typical .5 win decline per year the contract will be viewed as fair. If it starts earlier than that we have a problem, even with inflation.

 

BB-Ref is down on Upton/Victorino compared to FG. I agree that both are decent players but Upton's inability to get on base is a huge concern for me.

 

While if Mauer stays healthy, he'll be back behind the plate more often in 2013 (Ryan has said as much). That means his value may actually rise in the coming two years. His decline is certainly a concern from 2015-2018, though.

[SweetOne69]

If Mauer plays in 150 games, I would like him to catch 60% of the time and 20% at 1B and DH. That would give him 90 games at C and 30 each @ 1B and DH.

[John Bonnes]

I wonder if we're thinking about this the wrong way. Let me offer a different type of deal, one that might make a lot more sense for the Twins....

 

Since the Twins likely won't be able to spend that money this offseason anyway (and maybe not next), what if the the Twins send Mauer to the Red Sox with the offer of paying, say, 50% of his salary over the next two years? In return, the Twins want top prospect back from the Sox, particulaly pitching and middle infield. (I don't really know who thay have that's desirable.)

 

A $23M Mauer might not be that valuable to them, but a $11M Mauer has to be worth four top prospects, right? The Twins get young talent, the money they save this year year is essentially used to buy that young talent, and they free up payroll to pay these guys when they get expensive in a few years.

 

Would that kind of deal make sense? Anyone got any Sox prospects they want to float out there?

[Oxtung]

Disagree with you partially Pig. Upton's been somewhere between a 3-4 win player and is under 30, his contract is pretty much market value. Victorino, again 3-4 win player(5.9 two years ago!). Little bit older so lower payout. I'll agree Mauer will be a solid contract if he keeps up his production for a few more years. The big question will be how well he holds up, if he can keep this 5 win plateau for a the next 2 years and then go into a more typical .5 win decline per year the contract will be viewed as fair. If it starts earlier than that we have a problem, even with inflation.

 

BB-Ref is down on Upton/Victorino compared to FG. I agree that both are decent players but Upton's inability to get on base is a huge concern for me.

 

While if Mauer stays healthy, he'll be back behind the plate more often in 2013 (Ryan has said as much). That means his value may actually rise in the coming two years. His decline is certainly a concern from 2015-2018, though.

 

Do you think the Twins will be competitive in 2013 or '14? If not what does it matter if Mauer is good in '13 or '14? What will matter (hopefully) is his production in the out years when he is 33+.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I wonder if we're thinking about this the wrong way. Let me offer a different type of deal, one that might make a lot more sense for the Twins....

 

Since the Twins likely won't be able to spend that money this offseason anyway (and maybe not next), what if the the Twins send Mauer to the Red Sox with the offer of paying, say, 50% of his salary over the next two years? In return, the Twins want top prospect back from the Sox, particulaly pitching and middle infield. (I don't really know who thay have that's desirable.)

 

A $23M Mauer might not be that valuable to them, but a $11M Mauer has to be worth four top prospects, right? The Twins get young talent, the money they save this year year is essentially used to buy that young talent, and they free up payroll to pay these guys when they get expensive in a few years.

 

Would that kind of deal make sense? Anyone got any Sox prospects they want to float out there?

 

It makes quite a bit of sense, actually.

[Oxtung]

I wonder if we're thinking about this the wrong way. Let me offer a different type of deal, one that might make a lot more sense for the Twins....

 

Since the Twins likely won't be able to spend that money this offseason anyway (and maybe not next), what if the the Twins send Mauer to the Red Sox with the offer of paying, say, 50% of his salary over the next two years? In return, the Twins want top prospect back from the Sox, particulaly pitching and middle infield. (I don't really know who thay have that's desirable.)

 

A $23M Mauer might not be that valuable to them, but a $11M Mauer has to be worth four top prospects, right? The Twins get young talent, the money they save this year year is essentially used to buy that young talent, and they free up payroll to pay these guys when they get expensive in a few years.

 

Would that kind of deal make sense? Anyone got any Sox prospects they want to float out there?

 

It makes quite a bit of sense, actually.

 

I think it depends on what you get in return. Just getting minor league prospects back is a problem. The fans need something for the major league team this year even if that is a return like Worley, a guy who is young and the fans can point to and say this is a player for our future. We're building around him. I don't know the Red Sox personel or FO well enough to know who that player is that we could actually get back in return. That's not to say we should ONLY be looking to get back MLB ready talent.

[twinkiesfan11]

Trading Mauer would be a major mistake for the following reasons:

 

1. His contract is becoming more and more reasonable in the context of the free agent contracts being handed out this offseason.

2. He demonstrated that he can stay healthy given the proper workload. He's at least an average defender both behind the plate and at 1B, his bat is a plus even when he DH's.

3. He's still young enough to build around and the Twins are assembling a nice core through the minor league system to support him.

4. He's the face of the franchise, the guy that the casual fans rally around.

5. The local boy who plays his entire career in his childhood back yard and marries a local girl is too good of a story. This sounds cheesy but it's good for baseball and it's good for the Twins.

 

Peter Gammons and the Red Sox need to drop it, it's not happening or at least it better not.

[Oxtung]

I guess the alternative is to go out and get a big headline guy like Dempster with the ~40M trading Mauer would free up. While Dempster probably doesn't help the Twins much in the next few years it does give the fans something to show up to the ball park for while also freeing up his salary for the playoff years in the future.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

I think the baseball world explodes if Mauer is traded. There is no way we should trade him. He's a Hall of Famer and should be a career Twin.

[S.]

Personally, I don't see how Dempster would give fans any additional reason to show up.

[twinkiesfan11]

Personally, I don't see how Dempster would give fans any additional reason to show up.

 

I thought that same thing, last year Mauer and Morneau were the only positives that kept me watching. I'm a big prospect geek and the idea of trading Mauer for prospects and a chance to sign Ryan Dempster is vomit inducing.

[Mike Sixel]

They can afford Marcum and Dempster right now. Trading Mauer has to be about stud middle infielders, a pitcher, ans then signing a third legit player this year or next.

[Oxtung]

For those of you hating on Dempster that's fine. Pick the FA you like. My point was only that losing Mauer could be partially mitigated by bringing in 1 or 2 big names on contracts that only last 2-3 years.

[Kobs]

Well, yeah. There's no way in hell a team trades a franchise catcher that OPSes around .850 with a .410 OBP and eats part of the contract.

 

I'm not a fan of trading Mauer (AT ALL) but there's a small part of me that would love to see him tear it up in Fenway. He might be a perennial 1.000 OPS guy in that park.

 

Tell that to the Rangers.

[diehardtwinsfan]

If they traded Mauer, I'd argue that they'd need to have to find a way to pick up a decent catching prospect or two. There's not much help at C in the minor league system.

[ashbury]

A $23M Mauer might not be that valuable to them, but a $11M Mauer has to be worth four top prospects, right?

 

Again I like this approach to analysis, but I don't think it works out the same way as it does for a guy with an expiring contract, like Morneau. Two years of an $11M Mauer is worth a lot, a real lot. What's left on that contract, though, is 4 more years at $23M of (likely) declining production and/or moving out entirely from catcher where his production makes him so valuable compared to 1B or DH. Might the risk in 2018 of paying $23M for .750 in OPS from your 1B/DH be downright negative, so much so that it subtracts what you are willing to offer in trade? I think probably yes.

 

As I said, a useful form of analysis, in the literal sense of breaking down the question into manageable pieces.

[diehardtwinsfan]

If the Sox offered up Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, Boegarts, Barnes and Webster you'd have to listen, right???

 

I think the Twins woudl take it and run (as they should). I cannot see the Sox offering up much, but if they were desparate, I'd start at Boegarts, Barnes and Lavarnway at a minimum. I could see taking Salty as well just to have someoe behind the plate in MN.

 

That said, this is a pipedream...

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Any chances of Mauer being moved were traded to the Nationals a few years back. The only way Mauer gets moved is if he requests it. Otherwise you are are looking at a life long Twin.

 

I believe as the years go on, you will see Mauer spend less time behind the plate. His offense alone has tremendous value. Keeping him healthy will help keep his value closer to the actual contract.

 

The Red Sox were/are looking for Mauer to play 1B full time. Can't see that happening right now.

[syves]

Only trade him if the Red Sox are willing to sell the house to us. It would be a massive PR hit, and everyone knows it. The people who comment on this site would still watch, but everyone else in Twins Territory would be gone.

 

Lavarnway, Boegarts, Middlebrooks, and Barnes. And the Pesky Pole.

 

The Pesky Pole is the Sine Qua Non.

[Top Gun]

Red sox like to stir up trouble then they back down and want something for nothing that's how they operate.

[Dilligaf69]

What's a real nice pkg though?? IMO they would need a C/ Bucholz or Lester and two of 2B/SS/3B and one of their top SP prospects at least..then I consider it...maybe!