What Happened To Jorge Polanco's Sota Pop?

[Parker Hageman]

Among the many breakout talents in the Minnesota Twins’ 2019 lineup, Jorge Polanco’s emergence as a top of the order bat who could not only make contact but put a charge into the ball was refreshing.

 

That season his .355 weighted on-base average was the seventh-highest among qualified shortstops -- even outperforming division rival Francisco Lindor.

 

But so far in 2020 that power source just hasn’t been there.Polanco takes the majority of his plate appearances from the left side and that’s where he put up most of his power numbers in 2019 -- including 16 of his home runs, 30 of his doubles and six of his triples -- so this analysis will focus on that batter’s box.

 

Now, admittedly, we are still in the early-to-mid stages of players getting their feet underneath them. Polanco has yet to have 100 plate appearances as a left-handed hitter this season. Still, in those appearances, the 26-year-old has only collected three extra base hits (one double and a pair of home runs).

 

In 2019 he slugged 519 from the left side while he is posting a 354 mark in 2020.

 

It would be easy to dismiss this as a sample-size issue and say, just wait, he’ll get hot. Except there are some data points that suggests there is something more to this stretch of offense.

 

First, let’s be clear that Polanco has not changed anything about his approach from the left-side. If you look at all of his plate discipline and swing decision metrics -- chase rates, miss rates, swing rates, etc -- they are almost identical to the year before.

 

Second, this year has been a really, really messed up. There was spring training. Then there was nothing. Then there was like a long weekend to be ready to face live pitching again. It is hard to say how a hitter would respond to that.

 

But also the year has been messed up in general. All around. There’s a raging pandemic. An economic crisis. The government more or less said UFOs exist and we didn’t even flinch. Hell, the Timberwolves just received the number one overall draft pick. The globe is probably off its axis and we’re all sliding into an invisible black hole so spending time worrying how one human swings a stick at a thrown projectile should be the least of our concerns.

 

The most notable difference in the two performance sets is Polanco’s hit types and his hit locations:

 

His ground ball rate has jumped from 31% in 2019 to 44% in 2020.

 

His line drive rate is down to 21% from 31% in 2019.

 

He is not pulling the ball in the air as much as he did a year ago. In 2019 he would pull the ball in the air 34% of the time while this season it’s down to 23%.

 

Finally, his exit velocity is down from 89 to 84 on average.

 

What stands out the most to me among that data soup is the decline in the rate of aerial pulls. That’s not actually a term anyone uses but aerial pulls sounds like it has gravitas. Frankly, he is not pulling the ball in the air with authority this season.

 

While I’m certain the spouting of random numbers is compelling as hell, you should also take a gander at his spray chart here to see how different it looks...in dot form.

 

Download attachment: Polanco Spray Charts.png

Last year he collected 47 hits including nine home runs, 15 doubles and two triples when pulling the ball in the air (or aerial pulling, if you will). This year Polanco has amassed just three hits (two home runs and a double) when pulling the ball in the air from the left side.

 

To summarize the situation: As a left-handed hitter, Polanco is attacking pitches the same as last year but he’s just not able to elevate them with any power to his pull side. It is obvious that something is off and I’m not so sure it has anything to do with the UFOs.

 

When you look at a side-by-side of Polanco’s swing from last year versus this year you will start to see where things are getting a little loose for the former All Star in 2020.

 

There are three key differences:

 

The first is where he starts his hands. In 2019, his hands were below his shoulder level. This year the hands are at or above his shoulders.

 

Next is the position of the bat. In 2019 he held it much more vertical (upright) while he holds the bat more with more tilt now.

 

The last piece is how much the barrel wraps behind his head now compared to a year ago as he moves into the launch position.

 

What this means is a longer swing path. It is especially apparent when you watch just his hands work.

 

This year the hands are much further back in the launch position (toward the catcher) and have to travel further forward to the contact point. The barrel turns wider behind him instead of the tighter turn you see in 2019. Similarly, with the bat now more prone instead of vertical, his swing plane is also slightly altered.

 

What ensues are armsier swings with timing issues that lack the same punch as a year ago. This would result in less power and more grounders.

 

The interesting part of this development is that Polanco has been a vocal proponent of using video to break down his swing.

 

“I’m a guy who used a lot of video last year,” he told The Athletic’s Dan Hayes. “I think everything at-bat, I used to watch me to see what I’m doing good and what I’m doing bad, to make an adjustment from there.”

 

As someone who is used to dissecting his swing on video, he would surely notice this difference. Clearly if he had a side-by-side of these last two seasons he could see the strengths and weaknesses. So it begs the question, is he doing this intentionally? Does he feel more comfortable with the new swing?

 

There is no question of his ability to make contact. Since the start of 2019 Polanco has maintained an 82.9% contact rate (21st among all qualified hitters). He can put the bat on the ball at an elite level. But what is lacking is his ability to drive it with luster like he did last year.

 

It is fairly evident that if Polanco needs to review the two swings and decide if he wants to make the necessary adjustments to regain the pop he had in 2019.

 

Click here to view the article

[Channing1964]

I wouldn't be too worried about him...he never seems like a guy that isn't open to suggestions and with Nelson Cruz around(Baldelli and the hitting coaches too) Im sure he be Aight. I for one am more impressed with his defense so far this year....man. It's obvious guys like Polanco, Arraez,Gonzalez, and Rosario have really made being better defenders a priority. The pitching statistics for sure reflect it.

[Parker Hageman]

I wouldn't be too worried about him...he never seems like a guy that isn't open to suggestions and with Nelson Cruz around(Baldelli and the hitting coaches too) Im sure he be Aight.

 

 

Been about 2 months now. Those guys should probably get on it.

[Trov]

First, were those videos taken from end of 2019 and beginning of 2020?  It is a great article pointing out the differences.  However, the reason I ask the question is his first couple months last years were his big slugging months and then he trailed off to what he did the first month this year, for most part.  So if he kept the same swing all 2019, then I would not say it is his swing that is the difference, at least not the only difference as his slugging did not get over .500 after May last year in any month, and was below .400 one month.  He was at .414 July this year, this month is terrible.  

 

The point is, if the 2019 video is from early on that season I would be interested to see if he changed later in season, or not.  That would lead me to believe there is more than swing leading to this.  Maybe, after his break out two months last year pitchers adjusted how they were pitching to him and now he is trying to adjust to that.  The longer load will normally lead to more power, but as you stated possible late on pitches too.  

[Parker Hageman]

First, were those videos taken from end of 2019 and beginning of 2020?It is a great article pointing out the differences.

 

 

This is from the July series against the Yankees last year.

 

The amount of video I watch for research for these posts is appalling. The amount of time versus amount of ROI I get for each post is laughable. If I were to tell my wife, she would probably pack the home up and leave. Rest assured, there was a lot of due diligence performed when using this clip (for the record, these two swings were chosen because they were of the same pitch type/speed in the same zone in similar counts). From the beginning of the year to the end of the year, nothing really changed in his left-side mechanics. 

 

Second, as far as his power numbers, yes, early season was much better but it was not like the power went away like it did in 2020. He still slugged over .400 in every month from the left side except in August (366) which was the only month he didn't hit a home run in (although he had 3 doubles and a triple).

 

I think it is fair to ask what prompted the changes. It's possible that the late season swings felt less comfortable and he decided to make some changes (the most notable difference is that his average dropped about a 100 points between May and September). However, we are deeper into the season now and it begs consideration of possibly adjusting to his previous mechanics. The Twins have the answers to that question. 

 

Keep an eye on Polanco these next few weeks and see if anything changes. 

[Aerodeliria]

Superb analysis as always. I think it messes up a lot of things. It was great having the side-by-side video (TYVM). I noticed that last year he was able to plant his front foot a nanosecond longer before it turns over. I would think that the longer his front foot remains planted the more power he can generate...but that is just my guess.

[jimbo92107]

Nailed it. Your shots from 2019 show a Polanco whose swing looked more like Nellie's, with the bat held more vertical, and a shorter path to the ball with a tighter snap and a more explosive swing that gets you just as high an average, plus it lifts the ball more, getting more HR's and balls banging off walls. 

 

Polanco 2020's swing looks longer and flatter, more like a conventional infielder trying to hit line drives and keep his average up. Problem is, that kind of swing makes it very hard to get any snap on an off-speed pitch that gets you on your front foot. See how Cruz does it? He steps forward, yet still keeps the bat pointed upwards, saving the snap, which he knows he can do in an instant. Even when he's fooled, Cruz can still hit the ball a long way with that late snap, off his front foot. 

 

Polanco can't do that because he's uncoiling as part of his initial forward movement. Weak ground balls if he's out front. You don't see a lot of those from Cruz.