Familiar Face, Whole New Arm

[Cody Pirkl]

2015 was a long time ago in any context, but such a gap in between Major League pitching appearances is nearly unheard of. Caleb Thielbar has had a long road back to wearing a Twins uniform, but the pitcher lovingly labeled “Meat Raffle” has earned the opportunity and could be around for a little while.We all explored Thielbar’s history when he was signed on a minor league deal this winter by the Minnesota Twins. It was a fun story but one with an unsure ending. Afterall, how often do we see the Twins take a flier on a familiar name only to never hear from them again?

 

A quick look into Thielbar’s recent history should have raised an eyebrow. In the last two years, Thielbar split time between Detroit and Atlanta and put up serviceable ratios. In 2019 particularly, he managed a K rate the likes of which hadn’t been seen from him to that point.

 

Despite putting up a 10.85 K/9 in over 76 innings and a 3.30 ERA, Detroit somehow didn’t see Thielbar fit to crack their historically bad roster at any point during the season. They instead dealt him to Atlanta down the stretch for possible bullpen depth where he remained at AAA and continued pitching well.

 

Thielbar was essentially ready to call it quits that winter, signing on as a coach at Augustana University before the Twins coaxed him back with a contract offer and a bullpen that lacked left handed pitching. While he didn’t make the roster out of summer camp, expanded rosters and a taxi squad suggested an opportunity was coming.

 

So here we are. Thielbar has 6 appearances in his return to Minnesota and appears to be doing fantastic. The Twins have used him in relatively high leverage spots, including a 10th inning game with a runner on second and early in Rich Hill’s shortened start before the game got out of hand. In 6.2 innings it’s hard to take anything too seriously, even if his 2.70 ERA is backed up by a 3.01 xERA and 2.72 FIP. There’s more to it however.

 

In Thielbar’s last season in 2015, Statcast had just debuted to afford us the ability to deep dive into a player's raw talent. While he didn’t get much opportunity in 2015, we can still see that Thielbar drastically improved his spin rate across the board since then. Throwing a fastball, slider and curveball in 2020, he’s upped the spin rate of each pitch by about 400 RPMs. While this affects movement, it’s also the likely source behind some of the swings that make Thielbar’s 90 mph fastball look 98.

 

Speaking of the fastball, Thielbar appears to have made it his number one weapon, throwing it 56% of the time and limiting hitters to a .178 expected BA and .314 expected SLG. The 3.4 inches on average of horizontal movement he gets on the pitch is near the tops of the league. This is all the more impressive considering the pitch only averages 89.8 mph.

 

Thielbar’s future is undecided with the Minnesota Twins. While he’s not the type of young high octane arm we so often get excited about, he appears to have a like minded view of analytics with the front office and pitching coach Wes Johnson, and has certainly benefited from it. We’ve seen the Twins start to lean more heavily on Thielbar as the bullpen workhorses have become stretched thin, and he’s only succeeded thus far. A few more strong outings likely cement his spot on the roster for the long haul.

 

Regardless of what the future may hold, the Twins have yet another player on their hands with a tremendous story as well as success to back it up. Years ago it was unbelievable that a local legend from Randolph High School of about 150 students was making his debut for the Twins. It’s all the more unbelievable that in 2020, he’s added to the legend by earning a spot once again. Welcome back to Twins Territory, Meat Raffle.

 

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