Bigger Disappointment: Byron Buxton or Miguel Sano?

[Cody Christie]

For many years, Byron Buxton or Miguel Sano were considered among the best Twins prospects to come through the organization’s farm system. Now, both players are entering the prime of their careers and there have been some bumps in the road to get to this point. Fans might have had unreasonable expectations, but which player has been a bigger disappointment so far?Player development certainly isn’t a linear path and it can take years for a player to put it all together at the big-league level. Buxton and Sano have both shown flashes of their full potential, but injuries and inconsistencies might be holding them back.

 

Miguel Sano

Pros: Sano was signed back in 2009 after an MLB investigation into his actual age. MLB couldn’t verify his true age, but that didn’t stop the Twins from making him an offer. He quickly jumped into Twins prospect rankings and he was a consensus top-100 prospect throughout his minor league career. Across eight minor league seasons, he posted a .374 OBP and a .557 SLG while hitting 20 or more home runs in three straight seasons. He looked ready to be the power hitter the Twins signed as a teenager.

 

Back in the first half of 2017, Sano burst onto the scene on the way to being selected to his first All-Star Game. He hit .276/.368/.538 (.906) with 21 home runs and 12 doubles before the All-Star break. Last season, there were even more positive signs from Sano. He hit over 30 home runs for the first time and posted a career high .923 OPS. Bombas were flying and Sano was happy to be part of the squad.

 

Cons: Sano hasn’t played more than 114 games since 2016 and his career high is 116 games which means he has never had over 500 plate appearances in a season. His strikeout totals have been rough as his 162-game average throughout his career is 249 strikeouts. This season, he has struck out in over 50% of his at-bats. Strikeouts have certainly been on the rise, but Sano has been on another level. Since the start of 2019, Sano has the highest strike out percentage by 4% among batters with a minimum of 500 PA.

 

There have been negative things off-the-field that might have impacted Sano’s career as well. Minnesota signed him to be a middle of the order bat with the potential to be a superstar. Now, he might be relegated to being a good player on some strong Twins teams.

 

Byron Buxton

Pros: Buxton is the dream player for any scout or organization. He oozes talent when he is on the field and clicking on every level. His defense is other worldly, his speed is unmatched, and his has shown glimpses of what could be his true offensive potential. The 2017 campaign showed Buxton at what might have been his highest level. By season’s end, he’d win the AL’s Platinum Glove for his defensive performance and he hit .300/.347/546 in the second half to power the Twins to the second Wild Card spot.

 

During the 2019 season, he might have been the team’s MVP in the season’s first half. He posted a .314 OBP and a .502 SLG while being near the top of the AL in doubles. The 2020 season has already seen some impressive numbers for Buxton as he has five home runs and the AL’s highest Defensive WAR. He has all five tools and it’s hard to ignore when everything is clicking.

 

Cons: Injuries have been the overriding concerns so far in Buxton’s career. He’s only managed to play more than 92 games in one season over the last six years. He’s tried to play through some injuries in the past and this negatively impacted his performance on the field. His outfield aerobatics are certainly thrilling when he makes a catch that other players wouldn’t even attempt but slamming into the wall and being out for multiple weeks doesn’t help the team win games. Minnesota has worked to make changes with Buxton and some of the results might be transpiring on the field this year.

 

Fans might have wanted him to develop into the next Mike Trout, but that is unrealistic for any player. Buxton can still impact the game on nearly every level if he is healthy and on the field.

 

Who have you been more disappointed in so far in the career? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

MORE FROM TWINS DAILY

— Latest Twins coverage from our writers

— Recent Twins discussion in our forums

— Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

 

Click here to view the article

[USAFChief]

Yes.

[Thegrin]

Get some perspective folks. In a normal year, this would be April. Nobody worries about a players performance this early in the season. 

I believe the Twins hitters have shown that they'll be ready when hits are needed.

Win Twins.

[VivaBomboRivera!]

Neither. Case closed.

[Loops]

I've never been a Sano fan.  Yes, he hits the ball hard.  Yes, if he connects it "might" go out for a home run.  But he is almost a guaranteed out.  He strikes out a ton.  Home runs are nice but I don't think they outweigh his lack of defense and lack of on base percentage.  When you add into that the off field problems he isn't someone you can depend on.

Buxton has had a lot of injuries it's true.  It does make him someone you can't rely on.  Right now.  When he is on the field he is a difference maker.  Defensively he is at the top of the list.  Offensive statistics might be streaky but above average.  Injuries are something you hope are just a fluke.

 

I would take Buxton over Sano any day.  And if we look back in the future and say we lost yet another David Ortiz type .... oh well!

[Channing1964]

Im not really disappointed by either one of them because neither one has impressed me consistently enough to expect elite performances. If Buxton can stay healthy he can be an impact player, but i doubt a superstar. Sano seems like maturity could help him develop into the threat we hope he can be. This year the evaluations are skewed for both because of the freaky situations but as i saw one person post "i always knew Sano would test positive" I thought having Cruz around would help keep Sano's head in the right place but that still is a work in progress. In Buxton's case i think he is guarded against taking any suggestions because basically the old coaching staff screwed his head up and then the new FO...in one of the few mistakes they made basically screwed him over in 2018. I guess we're stuck with the good and the bad with Sano cuz he signed that extension. Im not sure Buxton will ever forget 2018. It would be nice to see that whole core stick together but the chances of that are slim and none. Somebody will pay Berrios way more than he is worth and Rosario would prolly stay for less money. Buxton I'm afraid, is gone as soon as he can be. The only thing that could hold it together is maybe Baldelli.

[shimrod]

"Somebody will pay Berrios way more than he is worth"

 

I'm afraid it will be the Twins.

 

I'm not as disappointed in Sano and Buxton as much as the Twin's treatment of both. Sano was kept at third well past the time it was clear he would always be a defensive liability - and let's not even mention the debacle in right field. If Sano had given any indication he'd prepare his body for a premium position it might have been different, but getting down under 300 lbs doesn't cut it. Buxton's handling has already been discussed. 

[TwinsFan268]

 

Get some perspective folks. In a normal year, this would be April. Nobody worries about a players performance this early in the season. 

I believe the Twins hitters have shown that they'll be ready when hits are needed.

Win Twins.

Uh huh, in a NORMAL season. In this season, the Twins have played 24 games, which means we're almost halfway through.

[Trov]

Personally, I am not "disappointed" in either.  They have both shown they can be MLB players for years.  Yes, they both have had set backs and issues.  If I had to pick one it would be Sano more for his lack of being in shape not improving on his defense.  

 

Buxton tries so hard to be the best he can be.  This has lead to so many changes in hitting.  He is willing to go through walls to make catches, which has led to injuries.  He will try as hard as he can to be as good as he can.  That is not disappointing to me.  We heard the Mike Trout comps, which was not fair for Buck.  Trout, barring falling off the table in the next few years, might go down as best player of all time, if you go by WAR that is nearly a lock.  So to have that comp is just not fair for anyone.  Has Buck become the best player on our team, no.  Has he become an all star year in and out and future HOF, no.  But is he a flop, no.  There are many other players drafted in top 5 that never make majors let alone show they are top defensive player in the league. 

[mikelink45]

Sano would be the guy for me -- because I hate excessive Ks.  Miguel has 7.9 WAR for six years - barely over the average player.  For a man expected to be a star that is disappointing.  His .191 BA is terrible and two years ago it was .199.  Yes I am disappointed.

Buxton has a WAR of 10.5 over the same time frame making him the more valuable.  His defense is his calling card and he makes a difference.  His bat shows flashes of potential, but it is not long enough for star material and speed will diminish in the next three years.

So we have two players with unique talents - Sano power - Buxton fielding, but neither has made it to the star level yet and that is disappointing.

[denarded]

Uggh. The question I don't want to answer. Great article

[Channing1964]

and to be honest is it fair to say that either one of them is a bust? If I were Falvey i would consider both of them diamonds in the rough because he had nothing to with drafting or really developing them. The fact that they both are on a major league roster is better than a lot of teams can say about their top draft picks. For reals. Once this core is long gone the blame is all on the Falvines. There will be no more excuses. I bet they are elated to get a wildcard and a division title out of this group.

[Shaitan]

JD Durbin

[rdehring]

Gotta disagree, Cody. No way has Buxton been any type of disappointment. Yes, he is still getting his swings in having missed a good part of the shortened summer training camp. But there have been several games where he has shown us the player he can  become. Is he a disappointment, no way in ..........

[jkcarew]

 

Buxton has had a lot of injuries it's true.  It does make him someone you can't rely on.  Right now.  When he is on the field he is a difference maker.  Defensively he is at the top of the list.  Offensive statistics might be streaky but above average.

 

Above average? In this, his "break out" season, Buxton is sporting a .225 OBP...his career OBP...over 400 games now...is 288. Sano has never been even close to the 'guaranteed out' that Buxton has been. Sano's OBP sits at .276 this year and .336 career-wise.

 

I do agree....that as currently performing through these first 25 games, Buxton has value because of the defense, although way less than most here give him credit for, and less than flawed defensive components for WAR gives him. But, still, more value that Sano has provided so far in 2020, which is zero.

 

It's about 20 games played for each of these guys so far in 2020. But based on track records, I think it's fair to say, it's very unlikely either gets to true 'star' status at this point.

 

On the other hand...if the big guy heats up...and Buxton becomes a true/consistent league-average hitter...

[DocBauer]

I get disappointment and frustration at this point due to injuries, slow adaptability, etc. But we see and know the talent. Buxton was outstanding last season, as was Sano, before injury and after adjustments. I think Rocco and his staff some real hand in that.

 

2020 is a mess for so many in so many ways. Ask this question again this time next year when things normalize.

[Danchat]

...and Buxton hit the IL again! Quite good timing with this article.

[USAFChief]

 

...and Buxton hit the IL again! Quite good timing with this article.

sigh...

 

 

[VivaBomboRivera!]

Neither. Case closed.

Amending the previous post in light of the IL announcement - I am worried about Byron Buxton being hurt. Worried about Mitch Garver and Luis Arraez, as well.

 

Miguel Sano is playing his heart out at first base. He wants to excel, and if he succeeds we will have our Kent Hrbek for the '20s.

 

I remain disappointed in no one. Win Twins!

[BD57]

Sano's gotta cut down on the strikeouts - a guy his size, with his strength, has to make contact.  At least, more than he does now.

 

Right now, I'd say 'Sano' b/c I expect a guy to become more disciplined & refined as he gains experience and I can't say Sano's doing that; too many swings & misses.

[VivaBomboRivera!]

Sano's gotta cut down on the strikeouts - a guy his size, with his strength, has to make contact.  At least, more than he does now.

 

Right now, I'd say 'Sano' b/c I expect a guy to become more disciplined & refined as he gains experience and I can't say Sano's doing that; too many swings & misses.

Last night provided plenty of evidence that he's working on this, as well.  Having seen how he adjusts, and then how pitchers adjust to his adjustments, it's fair to say we are not looking at the final product yet.

[flpmagikat]

Buxton is the bigger disappointment for sure. Sano hasn't become the best power hitter in baseball, but he's still a huge power threat and plays 1b just fine. Could be better but still plays most days. Buxton gets a lot of love from war, and no doubt his defense is crazy good and he's really fun to watch out there. But he never plays for more than a couple weeks at a time it seems, and those first what, 2-4 years were pretty terrible when he was on the field. I like him but can see him out of baseball in 5 years, while I see Sano having a normal length career for a lunking power hitter.

 

edit to add: Buxton was also a #2 overall pick while Sano was a international signing. The value of the #2 pick compared to just a cash signing hurts his perceived value, as we expect our top 5 picks to be face of the franchise players. And if anything that's the often maligned rosario, not the guy (occasionally) playing next to him.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Buxton is the bigger disappointment for sure. Sano hasn't become the best power hitter in baseball, but he's still a huge power threat and plays 1b just fine. Could be better but still plays most days. Buxton gets a lot of love from war, and no doubt his defense is crazy good and he's really fun to watch out there. But he never plays for more than a couple weeks at a time it seems, and those first what, 2-4 years were pretty terrible when he was on the field. I like him but can see him out of baseball in 5 years, while I see Sano having a normal length career for a lunking power hitter.

 

edit to add: Buxton was also a #2 overall pick while Sano was a international signing. The value of the #2 pick compared to just a cash signing hurts his perceived value, as we expect our top 5 picks to be face of the franchise players. And if anything that's the often maligned rosario, not the guy (occasionally) playing next to him.

 

Well said.  Buxton has got to play a significant, uninterrupted stretch of baseball before this is even a conversation IMO.

 

Sano is a regular contributor with some warts.  Buxton, at this point, isn't even a regular for this team.