Dylan Bundy Could Be the Perfect Target at the Trade Deadline

[Andrew Thares]

If the Minnesota Twins are looking to bolster their starting rotation, their options will be severely limited this year when compared to the usual trade deadline. However, that does not mean that their options are nonexistent, with one of those intriguing options being Los Angeles Angles right-hander Dylan Bundy.There was a lot of hype surrounding Bundy on his way up through the minors, reaching as high as the second-best prospect in baseball according to the 2013 MLB.com preseason prospect rankings, after he already made his MLB debut at the end of the 2012 season. However, Bundy’s career protectory was derailed later that summer, as he had to undergo Tommy John surgery. After more injury issues, Bundy didn’t make his return to the big leagues until the 2016 season.

 

Bundy’s four seasons in a Baltimore Orioles uniform were disappointing to say the least. While he was able to stay healthy, Bundy failed to have a season where he posted an ERA below four. In total, Bundy had a 4.69 ERA with an 8.8 K/9 and a 3.0 BB/9. This led to the Orioles decision to move on from Bundy this winter. Now, in an Angels jersey, Bundy is pitching better than ever.

 

While the season is still young, Bundy has been lights out to start the season. In four starts, Bundy already has a 1.1 fWAR entering play on Sunday. In 28 and 2/3 innings of work, Bundy has 35 strikeouts, while allowing just 3 walks. A big factor that is playing into this great start from Bundy is the change in pitch usage that he is using to start this season.

 

Download attachment: 8D8871A2-8B40-435D-954A-F4063E294160.png

 

In the graph above, we can see that Bundy has ramped up his slider usage in his first four starts of 2020. Throughout his career, the four-seam fastball has been by far the dominantly used pitch in Bundy’s repertoire, in most seasons nearly doubling the usage of next closest pitch. This year, however, he has actually thrown a couple more sliders than fastballs thus far.

 

This is a move that seemed all too obvious for Bundy, who possess one of the best sliders in all of baseball. Just how good has Bundy’s slider been? Well, here is where Bundy’s slider ranks among the best starting pitcher sliders in Major League Baseball since he started throwing it with regularity in 2017.

 

Download attachment: 701DC82E-32EA-438B-A4D2-204AF9AD850C.png

 

In the above chart, we see the top five pitchers ranked by slider xwOBA since the 2017 season (min. 1500 sliders thrown). As you can see, Bundy not only tops the leaderboard in this all-important category, but he also maintains pace with these other pitchers in other important categories such as whiff rate and spin rate.

 

In addition to ramping up the usage of his slider, Bundy has also made improvements with his changeup over the last couple of seasons. In 2018, Bundy’s changeup was nothing more than an absolute liability pitch for him, as opposing hitters smashed it for a .356 average and a .724 slugging percentage. Those numbers where much improved in 2019, as hitters hit a more modest .254 and slugged .413. So far in 2020, those numbers have improved even further as opposing batters are hitting just .120 with a .240 slugging percentage against Bundy’s changeup.

 

There are a couple of notable differences in Bundy’s changeup that seem to explain the improvement in the pitch. The first is the drop-in spin rate, as seen in the chart below. Unlike breaking balls, where a higher spin rate is typically a good thing, for changeups a lower spin rate is usually better. The reason for this is the spin on a changeup acts against gravity, so if there is less spin, the ball will actually have more downward movement as it gets closer to the plate. This has helped improve the swing and miss ability of the pitch, as that has increased from 28.7 percent in 2018, up to 32.5 percent and 34.1 percent in the last two years, respectively.

 

Download attachment: CCB2E428-A10B-4F7B-BAB8-07818681378B.png

Download attachment: ACE42103-8D7E-43BB-9618-8CD3E1D4310F.png

 

The other big improvement that Bundy has made to his changeup has been his ability to locate the pitch. In the past, Bundy struggled to get his changeup down in the zone consistently. This allowed opposing hitters to tee off on the pitch. However, Bundy has remedied that problem, and is now getting that pitch down in the zone more consistently, as is illustrated in the chart below.

 

Download attachment: 22E41A1E-A233-49EC-820B-31C59AF81316.png

 

The effects of this improvement of Bundy’s changeup have been profound. Bundy uses his changeup as his go to secondary offering against left-handed hitters, and lefties are now having much less success against him. In 2018, left-handed hitters had an OPS of .938 against Bundy. In 2019, that number was down to a much more respectable .781, and so far in 2020 It has fallen even further, down to .627.

 

In addition to the improvements that Dylan Bundy has made to his game, he is also the perfect trade candidate from a contract perspective for the Twins. Bundy is currently in his second arbitration season, meaning the Twins will have team control for 2021. Additionally, Bundy will only have about $700K left on his deal for 2020 after the August 31st trade deadline, minimizing the payroll impact this season.

 

It still remains to be seen if the Angels are willing to move Bundy at the deadline, and if so, what it will cost to acquire him. If the asking price is too high, the Twins should probably hold back, but if they get a reasonable offer from the Angels they should jump all over it, as Bundy has the potential to be at or near the top of a Twins rotation that lacks a true frontline starter.

 

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[mikelink45]

Not excited

 

[ChrisKnutson]

I honestly don’t see Los Angeles trading Bundy after only a handful of starts in a 60 game season. However, while neither have gotten off to a great start like Bundy, I would be just as interested in acquiring either Ray or Eovaldi.

[Channing1964]

i understand why you like him but what do you think the Angels would want? I mean they dont have the luxury over there of just saying oh we are rebuilding. With Joe Madden around and the signing of Rendon, not to mention the fact that Trout has never even been in the playoffs....I doubt we would pay the price it would take to get Bundy. Even if he can sustain this performance. Don't forget that fool who used to manage the Mets is now the Angels pitching coach. He will screw that up royally.

[bighat]

What do you give up for Bundy in a compromised season that's constantly in danger of being cancelled and half the league is making the playoffs?

 

I honestly think the only people thinking about trades are the fans. MLB teams might make a few minor moves (like the one you saw between MN and AZ) but I can't imagine you'll see any deals bigger than that this season.

[FritzDahmus]

The Twins lost their opportunity to get Bundy this last off-season [and they should have.....I have always thought he was a very bright spot on a bad Oriole team]. 

 

But for the Angels front office to give up on a new front-line player [and the team] after just 30+ games [whatever it will be]....is a little far-fetched. Plus, are you ever really out of it this year until the last week??

 

I was hoping the Twins would have acquired Bundy last winter. To me, Bundy always looked good, and was the best pitcher [with untapped talent as you noted] on a bad team. The Twins missed their chance.

[Hollywood42]

Hard pass

[TFRazor]

 

What do you give up for Bundy in a compromised season that's constantly in danger of being cancelled and half the league is making the playoffs?

 

I honestly think the only people thinking about trades are the fans. MLB teams might make a few minor moves (like the one you saw between MN and AZ) but I can't imagine you'll see any deals bigger than that this season.

This. There's going to be a lot of cash deals for fringe guys to fill a particular role. I don't see a lot of established or major league-for-prospects deals happening.

[jud6312]

Reasons I don't see the Angels trading him any time soon:

 

- He's not a free agent until '22

- They just gave up four minor leaguers for him

- Mike Trout

- Anthony Rendon

- Ohtani's arm

- Lack of pitching depth in the majors

- Lack of pitching depth in the upper minors

 

So I guess if the Twins, or any team, were ready to give up high-end prospects that will be ready to go as soon as next year, they might but they're not in a position that they have to.

[diehardtwinsfan]

for the right price sure... not sure his contract situation... and 4 games is a bit of a small sample. Like others, I doubt we see much in terms of block buster trades... Bundy has too many question marks to fetch an exorbitant price, but if the price was right, I'd get him. 

[SkyBlueWaters]

I agree with many of the comments above, especially re the peculiarities of this season and wanting more of a sustained track record of excellence before we deal away emerging talent--at a time when MLB places a premium on prospects.

 

That said, I don't think many of us are content with the Twins simply making the playoffs. From 1968 to 1980 the Vikings won 11 division titles yet lost their final game each season. 

 

Everyone who is happy with that record raise their hands. Me neither.

 

Further, as much fun as the Twins have been in '19 and so far '20, I have one key metric in mind: Yankee Stadium in October.

 

We don't have to win the pennant there, but if we lose it there ... our record this century with NYY begins to feel like the Bud Grant Vikings. Some HOF players to celebrate, but that last game ...

 

I believe in Berrios (we have to), he's better than his start. Odorizzi, past his back issues, could be part of a trio of aces. I like Maeda. Maybe not the top playoffs gun, but quality rotation depth.

 

Dobnak's reliance on the sinker concerns me in the playoffs, against MLB's best lineups. Trying to be upbeat, maybe he's a quality 4th starter or invaluable relief strength.

 

Maybe Hill, Pineda, or Bailey will emerge as consistent quality. But it's four series, possibly as many as 22 games to go the distance, and only one team is going to win 13 playoff games and get to go snorkeling in champagne at the end. 

 

If the Twins could add a real horse, hopefully under team control for a few years as we look to contending now, someone who slots in at the top of the rotation, ready to go deep into games against baseball's best, I could see making a deal. Classic recent example: Houston adding Verlander.

 

We have pitching depth, to deal away a back of the rotation starter to fill in for some innings the trade partner loses. We have prospects. As it might take more than one, we have once high prospects who've had issues (maybe Gordon?) who might sweeten a deal.

 

I get that teams might be reluctant to deal this year. So maybe no dice.

 

But I've also been to Yankee stadium. An unpleasant place, with spoiled fans bragging about buying away other teams' talent. I don't like watching their players snorkeling in champagne at the end of a season, either.

[Channing1964]

I totally agree he would be a great fit for us. Just like one of the previous posters above noted, the time to get him was last off season when he was available. That was before we ended with Hill, Bailey, and Maeda. At this point, with Pineda set to come back, I just dont see where he fits in to the team. Especially at the price the Angels would require anybody to pay. Those guys have to be all in as buyers not just this year but every year. And their division is shaping up to be Brutal.

[DocBauer]

We still have over half a short season to play. And with expanded playoffs...ugh...how many teams are truly out of it?

 

I'm not sure about ransom payouts for Bundy or anyone else considering financial implications going forward the next year or 2-3, plus CBA situations that could threaten 2022. But it plays a part. And the "what if" scenario remains. I just don't see any/many scenarios where guys of quality are made available.

[Channing1964]

We still have over half a short season to play. And with expanded playoffs...ugh...how many teams are truly out of it?

I'm not sure about ransom payouts for Bundy or anyone else considering financial implications going forward the next year or 2-3, plus CBA situations that could threaten 2022. But it plays a part. And the "what if" scenario remains. I just don't see any/many scenarios where guys of quality are made available.

True all of the above....nobody is gonna trade any potential impactful players, especially when nobody will actually be out of it at the deadline. I like where we are in terms of the now and of the when. I wonder if we will find a way to get Nelson for at least one more ride. I would love to see him end his career as a Minnesota Twin. In these two short years he has re-energized this team. God Bless you Nelson Cruz.

[DocBauer]

True all of the above....nobody is gonna trade any potential impactful players, especially when nobody will actually be out of it at the deadline. I like where we are in terms of the now and of the when. I wonder if we will find a way to get Nelson for at least one more ride. I would love to see him end his career as a Minnesota Twin. In these two short years he has re-energized this team. God Bless you Nelson Cruz.

Can't like this post enough!

 

Reality is a 1yr deal for a fair amount. Fair 2nd yr or option is not out of the question. But he needs to be back for 2021 for so many reasons.

[Channing1964]

Can't like this post enough!

Reality is a 1yr deal for a fair amount. Fair 2nd yr or option is not out of the question. But he needs to be back for 2021 for so many reasons.

Absolutely you are right....I hope he comes back and I am sure he wants to....Please pay him to stay for at least one more FULL season!