The 5 Best Bets to Win Twins MVP

[Nash Walker]

We’re nearly 33% of the way through this wild 2020 season. There have been disappointments, pleasant surprises and everything in between. Who are the five Twins most likely to win team MVP at this point in the season?*THESE CALCULATIONS FOR WINS ABOVE REPLACEMENT (WAR) ARE FROM BASEBALL REFERENCE*

 

5. Nelson Cruz

 

King Nelly got off to a blazing start. He went 7-for-13 with three homers and two doubles during the opening series in Chicago. He hit .190 with a .499 OPS in the following six games before notching six hits in nine at-bats at home against Pittsburgh. Cruz has struggled since then but is still hitting .329/.405/.543 on the season. He’s a fine bet to win the award again in 2020.

 

4. Randy Dobnak

 

The Dobber has a 0.90 ERA in 20 innings pitched. That’s the lowest ERA among all pitchers who’ve thrown as many innings. Dobnak is producing a 66.7% groundball rate. His one-seam sinker looks deadlier than ever and opponents are hitting just .077 against his slider. Dobnak leads all Twins pitchers in WAR and ranks second on the whole team behind one explosive centerfielder.

 

3. Eddie Rosario

 

The single most amazing thing about Rosario’s season thus far is his *insane* walk rate. Rosario is walking in 10.7% of his plate appearances, more than double his career rate of 4.6%. On top of that, he’s hit six home runs, the most on the team. Rosario is 6-for-14 with two doubles and a homer with runners in scoring position, including a grand slam. Edisito’s new formula, drawing walks while still punishing mistakes, has worked to a T through 18 games.

 

2. Kenta Maeda

 

Maeda’s first four starts as a Twin were superb. He holds a 2.66 ERA in 23 ⅔ innings. He would’ve earned his fourth straight win if not for a bullpen implosion in Pittsburgh. Maeda has produced 0.5 WAR after producing 1.2 total WAR in 153 ⅔ innings for the Dodgers in 2019. Maeda would be on pace for over 3 WAR in a 162 game season. Only 38 pitchers produced 3 or more WAR in 2019. The preseason notion that Maeda could be the Twins’ best starter this year looks quite legitimate.

 

1. Byron Buxton

 

We all knew the heights the Twins could reach more or less hinged on Buxton’s availability. He’s healthy enough to play and he’s been outstanding. Buxton is hitting .298/.306/.638 (!) through 15 games. He’s produced 1.1 WAR, the third most in the American League behind only Ramon Laureano and Aaron Judge. In his last eight games, Buxton is slugging .966 and ranks sixth in the A.L. with a .638 slugging % on the season (min. 45 PA). Buxton should be officially placed on not only the Twins, but the A.L. MVP watchlist.

 

Honorable mention:

 

Marwin González

 

Marwin has been fantastic both offensively and defensively. Josh Donaldson, the Twins’ best all-around player, remains out with a calf injury. Marwin has filled in for Donaldson more than admirably. He’s hitting .304/.365/.429 in 63 plate appearances. Donaldson’s eventual return will take playing time from Marwin, ultimately diminishing his chances of winning team MVP. His exclusion from this list has nothing to do with production. He’s been outstanding.

 

 

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[Linus]

Buxton Cruz Maeda and Dobnak can share it. I actually more confidence in in Buxton and Dobnak to sustain this which is surprising

[AlwaysinModeration]

Funny thing is, I don’t think Buxton is really locked in yet.

[MplsFan]

Not to diminish what Buxton’s done because he’s been awesome the last ~8 games and I agree it doesn’t seem like he’s hit his stride yet, but shouldn’t someone being talked about for Team or AL MVP be able to hit higher than 8th or 9th in the lineup? I just feel like Rocco treats him with kid gloves and frankly I don’t disagree with where he bats him. I wouldn’t want to move him to 1st or 4th in the order (is that where his stats say he should hit?) if it means his average would quickly drop to the Mendoza line. Just seems to me that isn’t the mark of someone being mentioned for MVP...

[Doctor Gast]

I agree w/ your poll & the opinion that Buck is just warming up. As long as pitchers think they can get Rosie to chase, he`ll continue to get his walks & better selection of balls to smash. Love the change