This Trade Deadline Is Going to Be a Mess

[Matt Braun]

In just a little over two weeks, the annual ritual of player movement will occur in the form of the trade deadline. You already know what goes on here. Good teams add, bad teams subtract, and fans on both sides complain about who they got and what they gave up. It’s a fun time had by all. This trade deadline will be starkly unique and in many ways, a complete and utter mess.The first issue is that teams mostly will not know just how good they are. Surely, the Yankees and the Dodgers know that they’ll be menaces, but what about teams like the Rangers and Angels? The fringey teams that most need the 100 some odd games of observation and analysis will have to compact their decision making process into a relatively minuscule sample. Keep in mind that these are teams headed by executives who sometimes plan moves years in advance. Weird stuff is going to occur when the safety net of long-term evaluation is removed.

 

Another one of the problems that occurs when barely any games have been played is that teams just don’t know how good some of their players actually are. The Twins need to know where some of their riskier players are at so they can decide whether to add or be satisfied. For example, a guy like Tyler Clippard might lose it halfway through September. In a normal season, the Twins would use this information to go get a replacement because the breakdown would have normally happened sometime in May. Now, all they can do is swear under their breath and mutter while kicking dust.

 

Yet, there remains more that screws up this trade deadline! MLB announced on their opening day that playoffs would be expanding to include eight teams from each league. This decision can be its own discussion, but the important end result is that the market will now be entirely skewed to favor sellers. I’m also not actually sure if there will be any true sellers in MLB.

 

Consider this; the typical trade deadline consists of teams who can clearly identify where they are at in comparison with every other team. This is the point of every single game played before July 31. But with a shortened season and an expanded postseason, just about every team in baseball could conceivably make the playoffs. If the Tigers are sitting in second place on August 31, why in the world would they drop guys like Matt Boyd and Jonathan Schoop? They’ll take their shot at the playoffs because they know that anything can happen.

 

The playoff picture will obviously become much clearer in the coming weeks. Or, at least it hopefully will, because the Pittsburgh Pirates are currently the only team that is essentially already out of the race (can’t wait to eat these words in a few weeks when they suddenly become the ‘27 Yankees). Anyways, that means that either ten teams are going to fight for Joe Musgrove and marginally improve their rotation or they’ll take their chances with what they have.

 

The point is that cutting out the middle teams altogether from being sellers almost completely saps the market of worthwhile players. Bad teams generally don’t have good players, that’s why they’re bad after all (I do actually get paid for this kind of analysis, by the way). The few good players they do have will have such an astronomical price attached to them that the naturally conservative front offices members of other teams won’t meet that price. A few might out of desperation, but desperate front office members are few and far between.

 

Of course, fringe teams who can make the playoffs might still sell. It would be one hell of a thing to say “we’re giving up this chance to make the playoffs so that we have a chance to make the playoffs in the future”, but MLB teams have hid behind “the future” for years now anyways. Ultimately, I don’t see that happening and instead we will have the slowest trade deadline to ever exist. I hope I’m wrong! I really do. This just happens to be the most apparent end game of everything that has made this season so strange. At least in regards to the trade deadline.

 

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[Rosterman]

You still need roster space on the 40-man in the end. And more than likely, some teams will try salary dumps.

 

I guess the question is "how important overall is a playoff run for a team this season." The ways things are set up, you can be the best 60-game team and you'll be eliminated early in the playoffs from some fluke or just a bad game day.

[beckmt]

There will be sellers, you just have to know whom.  Diamondbacks, Pirates, Red Sox, Royals, Marianers, maybe Texas.  There look to be several sellers (to about 10).  You just need to identify sellers, see how you match up, and make the moves.  Twins have a lot of farm system depth, so making moves should be looked at.  If a farm hand does not look like part of the 2 - 3 year or maybe a bit farther for the lower rungs, they should be looked at as trade bait and get help for now and in the future. 

[adjacent]

One thing that I understood is that minor leagers that are not in the 60-man camp cannot be included in trades. If this is so, the buyers won't have much currency to pay. Am I mistaken?

[Doctor Gast]

Like have I`ve said from the beginning, IMO this year, it`ll be rare to see any trades. Largely because of the reasons that you stated. Almost all teams will believe they`ll be in the mix for the play-offs. Like you said, " because the Pittsburgh Pirates are currently the only team that is essentially already out of the race (can’t wait to eat these words in a few weeks when they suddenly become the ‘27 Yankees). Anyways, that means that either 14 teams are going to fight for Joe Musgrove and marginally improve their rotation or they’ll take their chances with what they have". So the teams who really need pitching & who think they have a shoot will fight over Musgrove.

[rdehring]

Great article. Thanks, Matt.

 

As adjacent has stated above, I also believe the only players that can be traded must be on the 60-man roster. So unless the Twins want to part with one of their top four prospects that are on that roster, they don't have a lot to trade. For that reason, I expect them to be relatively quiet. Heck the best moves they can make may be to go out and get a couple really good starting pitchers, say Rich Hill and Michael Pineda.

[Danchat]

 

One thing that I understood is that minor leagers that are not in the 60-man camp cannot be included in trades. If this is so, the buyers won't have much currency to pay. Am I mistaken?

Yes, though non-60 man players can be traded as a PTBNL.

 

I have a hard time seeing many, if any trades will happen. At this point only the Pirates seem to be truly out of it, as most teams are a few games out of a playoff spot. 

[Darius]

It’s a fairly simple matter of market interference. The virus and shortened season have affected the market. The intersection of the supply/demand curve is way out of whack.

 

Sure, there will be sellers. But, they’re not going to selling at the drastic discount that will be required for a buyer.

 

Scouting reports on minor leaguers will be incomplete/outdated. Very few of these high-end decision makers will be comfortable taking a player that hasn’t been seen by a scout in a year.

 

You’re getting a fraction of the output from the acquired major leaguer compared to a normal year. You’ll get a handful of starts at best from a starter (if on an expiring contract).

 

Then, you have the odd playoff structure. You’re less likely to have an acquired star player payoff a championship.

 

I’m sure there will be some minor moves. But, it wouldn’t shock me if there wasn’t a single trade aside from marginal players on expiring deals for cash.

[howeda7]

 

One thing that I understood is that minor leagers that are not in the 60-man camp cannot be included in trades. If this is so, the buyers won't have much currency to pay. Am I mistaken?

Either Falvey or Levine said that one a telecast last week.

[Otwins]

They should target Taylor Rogers brother Tyler.  We are the Twins

[bird]

In two weeks, of the 14 teams that will not be playoff bound, will even 6 of them be resigned to this?

 

Personally, I want our team to either be sellers if they identify a desperate team willing to overpay, or I want them to stand pat and take their chances. There will not be a difference-maker available. There will not be a Graterol or Pressly type being dangled. (Too soon?)

 

I could see them trying to swipe some minor league asset away in exchange for a redundant piece, maybe Clifford or Romo if Alcala, Stashak, and Littell shine. Both would snare someone better than Dakota Chalmers, who they got for Fernando Rodney. I can see them trying to pull that kind of trade off. Cave or Adrianza? Both might be expendable. I doubt they move Rosario or a starter.

[mikelink45]

I am more interested in having them dip into the St Paul thirty than to trade.  At this point trades will be more about economics since free agency is going to be a crap shoot this year.

[USAFChief]

Mu guess is there will be some trades, but most will be salary dumps. I believe this will be an opportunity for a few teams to unload a contract or two.

[rghrbek]

What is the Twins need?  I think we all agree hitting (although maybe the biggest issue compared to where we were last year) will not be as much of a problem 20 games from now.

 

This team will hit.  Starting pitching will be what everyone wants.  Plus  a proven, not injured front line starter.  No more bullpen games.  

 

The problem is everyone wants that.  I agree with Chief.  There will be some.  The price will be insane.   This is not the year, as I just don't think we will get someone for the value we need to be at (even greatly overpaying).  We need to hope that Hill, Odo, and Bailey can be healthy until the big guy comes back.  Even then it's a crap shoot.

 

I still have no clue.  This is all so weird.

[IndianaTwin]

I think there may be some teams trying to be sellers. 

 

I just don’t think there will be many teams willing to be buyers, for many of the reasons listed above. 

 

You need both to make trades. 

 

(And unless I missed it, nobody’s mentioned the possibility of playoffs not even happening, in which case you’ve given away an asset for essentially no return.) 

[Trov]

I personally do not expect much in terms of trades this year.  Mainly because of uncertain futures.  In a normal year players with extra year of control will be of value and will get more in return.  However, with not knowing what next season will bring fan wise, it will be difficult for a team to take on a high salary. 

 

The limit to the 60 man roster limits who will get traded as well.  You cannot do the player to be named or anything like that.  Much like the trade the Twins made earlier this week I would expect most trades to be for cash and not players. 

 

I also believe the teams know they have high chance of making playoffs and in a 3 game series anything can happen.  Why go all in on this post season, when you still have no clue if it will actually happen.  What I mean by that is look at Cards, they have not played in 2 weeks.  What happens if a team gets infected in post season?  My guess is they will just be eliminated. 

 

I am sure there will be a trade or two, but not expecting block busters.    

[dex8425]

 

You still need roster space on the 40-man in the end. And more than likely, some teams will try salary dumps.

 

I guess the question is "how important overall is a playoff run for a team this season." The ways things are set up, you can be the best 60-game team and you'll be eliminated early in the playoffs from some fluke or just a bad game day.

I was thinking this as well. There will be some teams, like the Rangers, Giants, Phillies, where if I was the GM I'm trying to play for future full seasons where there's no doubt the playoffs will actually finish. Why buy for this year when there's a chance half your team could get COVID 19? I'd sell if I can, even if I think we might be in the expanded playoffs. Unless you think your team is a definitive world series contender this year, sell. There is so much uncertainty.  

[Channing1964]

We definitely have a lot of assets and or potential intriguing trade chips. I would just be very careful about making any deals that jeopardize the future over trying to gamble everything on a title this year. In my opinion, I think I'd roll the dice with our current roster and evaluate things in the off season. We will get enough of a sample size to determine where we're at going forward in 2021.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The limit to the 60 man roster limits who will get traded as well. You cannot do the player to be named or anything like that.

You can do the "player to be named later" thing. In fact, there have been several such minor deals so far. I suspect the restriction was to limit the number of players travelling this season, not to handcuff teams in making trades.

[Trov]

 

You can do the "player to be named later" thing. In fact, there have been several such minor deals so far. I suspect the restriction was to limit the number of players travelling this season, not to handcuff teams in making trades.

Good to know, I was under impression from other articles was you were only limited to 60 man groups.  ESPN even had article lately about that is a reason for limited trades because ability to trade an A ball level prospect for rental pitcher is limited because very few teams brought those type of players to 60 man group.