Randy Dobnak and the Rookie of the Year Race

[Cooper Carlson]

After Randy Dobnak’s most recent start there was a lot of rookie of the year conversation. Could he do it? Who is he competing against? Come read to find out all you need to know about the AL Rookie of the Year race.Despite making a few starts last season, Randy Dobnak still qualifies as a rookie. He is right in the thick of the rookie of the year race as we begin the season, but who will he need to beat out? Here are the AL rookie fWAR leaders through ⅓ of the season…

• Kyle Lewis, SEA (1.1)
• Luis Robert, CWS (0.8)
• Randy Dobnak, MIN (0.6)
• Justus Sheffield, SEA (0.5)
• James Karinchak, CLE (0.4)

So those are the five players we will likely be hearing the most about as the season winds down. The WAR category is hard to get a real judgement from this early, so let’s take a look at the individual statistics for each player…

• Lewis: 79 PA, .357/.430/.544 (.974), 179 wRC+
• Robert: 74 PA, .279/.338/.426 (.754), 118 wRC+
• Dobnak: 20.0 IP, 0.90 ERA, 4.95 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, 0.90 WHIP
• Sheffield: 13.2 IP, 5.27 ERA, 9.22 K/9, 3.95 BB/9, 1.32 WHIP
• Karinchak: 7.1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 15.95 K/9, 3.95 BB/9, 0.00 WHIP

Starting with Kyle Lewis he was the 11th overall pick in 2016 and he’s showing why. He was consistently a top 10 prospect in the Seattle organization but he never quite lived up to the hype until he reached the majors. If he can continue to put up numbers around what he’s doing right now then he will likely win the award. The only problem is he has never shown he can do that. Still a very fun player to watch.

 

I think we all know about Luis Robert by now. The White Sox center field prospect with as much promise as anyone we have seen lately. He has insane speed, excellent power and contact, and his fielding is elite. He will be a problem for years to come. He has been slumping lately and his OPS is dropping, but he will get a lot of votes even if he has just an average season. He has been compared to Mike freaking Trout.

 

The next player on the list is everyone’s favorite player, Randy Dobnak. He doesn’t have nearly the same promise or hype around him because no one had heard of him until he reached the majors. Everyone knows the Uber story, but what I find most impressive is his 2019 climb. He started the season at the High A level and finished as the starter for game two of the playoffs. Now in 2020 he is showing he’s more than just an interesting story. If he keeps up what he has been doing, watch out.

 

The other starting pitcher on this list is Justus Sheffield out of Seattle. He is another first round pick (31st in 2014) like the first two. His minor league career is very impressive with his ERA rarely being above 3.20 and it looks like he is beginning to click in the majors. His 5.27 ERA is deceiving because his FIP is 2.30 so he is better than his early numbers show. Too bad he's stuck in Seattle.

 

Finally, the only reliever on this list, James Karinchak. He is also the third player on here from the AL Central. Karinchak started 2019 at AA and ended the season in the majors. That is due to his 22.0 K/9 in AA and AAA before being called up. You never see numbers like that, it just doesn’t make sense. In just over 12.0 career MLB innings his K/9 is at 15.0 so he is already super dangerous. He may be the next top closer in major league baseball.

 

Those are the main players that will be competing for the Rookie of the Year Award. Who will come out on top? Will it be someone not on this list? Leave a comment below and start the discussion.

 

Click here to view the article

[rdehring]

Very interesting, Cooper. I always like to read good stuff about Dobnak because, well, most of what we have heard the past couple years has been good, very good.

 

I don't understand how WAR is calculated. But when I compare all the traditional stats between Dobnak and Sheffield there is no comparison. Yes, Sheffield has more strike outs but Dobber destroys him in the ERA, Walk and WHIP categories. Yet, their WAR is within a tenth of a point of each other.

 

That raises a big question in my mind of the value of WAR, especially when considering the the role of a pitcher is to keep runners off base (WHIP) and from scoring (ERA).

[Trov]

 

Very interesting, Cooper. I always like to read good stuff about Dobnak because, well, most of what we have heard the past couple years has been good, very good.

 

I don't understand how WAR is calculated. But when I compare all the traditional stats between Dobnak and Sheffield there is no comparison. Yes, Sheffield has more strike outs but Dobber destroys him in the ERA, Walk and WHIP categories. Yet, their WAR is within a tenth of a point of each other.

 

That raises a big question in my mind of the value of WAR, especially when considering the the role of a pitcher is to keep runners off base (WHIP) and from scoring (ERA).

First, my understanding is WAR is terrible for pitchers and a better stat for them is wins probability added is better, not sure though.  Maybe for starters it is better, but this year starters innings wont be much more than some relievers it would seem.  

 

Regardless when comparing Sheffield to Dobnak on start by start.  Sheffield gave his team 1 chance to win, his last start.  The other two he had a WHIP of 2 giving up 1 hit and walk per inning, and averaging a run per inning giving up 4 runs each start with 3 inning and 4.2 innings.  For me, giving your team a chance is more important than if you get a win or a loss.  Dobnak has done that.  

 

I also find it hard to give rookie of the year to a reliever unless they were unhittable and pitched nearly every day or at least 50% of teams games.  

 

I bet it goes to Reoberts barring him falling off completely because his hype will always be in voters minds.  Lewis if he can carry it through he will have a chance.  Overall it normally goes to hitters because they play every day and even if they slump for a week or two that gets forgotton about, normally with their hot streak being impressive.  Pitchers though, even more so this season, have two or three bad starts it will blow up all their numbers.  If Dobnak can keep going like he is, he should get the reward. 

[shortround81]

I'm super-glad the kid's doing well, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. I bet the boyfriend that I would have to wear a Brett Favre Packers jersey for an entire day if Dobnak wins the ROY. His stuff isn't dominating enough to keep up these kinds of numbers even in a shortened season. Plus, we're playing a small amount of teams. Hitters are eventually going to figure him out. 

[JoshDungan1]

Unfortunately he'll have to pitch incredibly well throughout the rest of the season to get it. Hitters will always have the advantage on pitchers, so Robert would have to cool off big-time for it to not be him.

[Patrick Wozniak]

 

Very interesting, Cooper. I always like to read good stuff about Dobnak because, well, most of what we have heard the past couple years has been good, very good.

 

I don't understand how WAR is calculated. But when I compare all the traditional stats between Dobnak and Sheffield there is no comparison. Yes, Sheffield has more strike outs but Dobber destroys him in the ERA, Walk and WHIP categories. Yet, their WAR is within a tenth of a point of each other.

 

That raises a big question in my mind of the value of WAR, especially when considering the the role of a pitcher is to keep runners off base (WHIP) and from scoring (ERA).

The article is referring to fWAR (FanGraphs) which uses FIP. FIP only factors in strikes, walks, home runs, and infield fly balls so it tends to dock pitchers like Dobnak who manage contact well. bWAR (Baseball Reference) tells a different story with Dobnak at 0.9 bWAR and Sheffield at -0.1 bWAR.