The Starting Pitcher Trade Market at a Glance

[Andrew Thares]

The depth of the Minnesota Twins starting rotation has been tested early on. Jake Odorizzi finally made his first start on Saturday, Rich Hill and Homer Bailey each made one start before landing on the IL, and Michael Pineda is still serving his suspension. Hopefully, as they start to return, that will sure the Twins rotation back up, but if injury issues persist, the Twins may need to turn to the trade market to improve the starting rotation.With the altered 2020 MLB schedule, the trade deadline for this year has been moved back a month from July 31st to August 31st. This will give teams about a month to evaluate where they stand for this season, to decide if they want to be buyers or sellers. Another change to the 2020 season that will have a major impact on the trade market is the expanded postseason. With 16 of the 30 teams making the postseason this year, it will likely leave only a few teams as true sellers at the deadline, and even fewer of those teams that actually have players of a good enough quality to trade for.

 

With that all being said, teams in clear title contention will still be aggressive at the deadline to improve their rosters. For the Twins, they will likely be looking heavily at the starting pitching market, either to add a frontline arm to the rotation, or to sure up any depth concerns that might still be prevalent come the deadline. So, let’s take a look at some of the starting pitchers that could be targets for the Twins.

 

Luis Castillo & Trevor Bauer – Cincinnati Reds

 

Coming into the season, the Reds were a dark horse pick to win the National League Central by many people, myself included. However, they have gotten off to a bit of a slow start. If they continue to struggle over the next few weeks, they might decide to try and move a piece to bolster their club for the future.

 

Luis Castillo is a name that has been mentioned a number of times in trade talks, but with still three years of control after 2020, the Reds will be reluctant to move him. The pitcher that they could be more interested in making a deal for is Trevor Bauer. Bauer is in the final year of his contract, and despite how many people feel about him, Bauer is an excellent pitcher that could instantly provide a boost to the Twins rotation, even if it was fully healthy.

 

Dylan Bundy & Andrew Heaney – Los Angeles Angels

 

The Angels are another team that has failed to get off to a good start, coming into Sunday with a record of just 5 and 10. With Shohei Ohtani shelved from pitching for the rest of the season, it will be incredibly difficult for them to claw their way back into contention in the American League.

 

Both Dylan Bundy and Andrew Heaney would make excellent trade candidates for the Angels. They both have just one more arbitration eligible season in 2021, before hitting free agency, and they both are quality enough starting pitchers to add depth to a postseason rotation. Both pitchers have gotten off to great starts this season, something the analytical world is not surprised by, as both pitchers have had much better underlying metrics than their baseline stats have said over the past couple of seasons. If the Twins injury woes continue, either one of these two could slot in as a number 3 or 4 pitchers in the Postseason rotation.

 

Lance Lynn & Mike Minor – Texas Rangers

 

While many Twins fans would reject the idea or reacquiring Lance Lynn after his disappointing 2018 campaign with the Twins, he has actually been on the best pitchers in Major League Baseball since he left. With one year, and $10 million left on his contract after this season, he would be an appealing addition to the Twins. With the Rangers not expecting to be all that competitive in 2021, they could look to move Lynn now and get max value for him.

 

Among all the pitchers mentioned so far, the most likely candidate to get moved before the deadline is Mike Minor. With the Rangers not competitive, and Minor being on the last year of his deal, there is almost no reason to hang onto him. Minor has gotten off to a dreadful start (6.89 ERA in 3 starts), which could give people pause. However, Minor has a FIP of 3.67 and an xERA (per Statcast) of 3.91 that suggest Minor has had a lot of bad luck early in the season that has led to an inflated ERA. Additionally, Minor has a few year track record of success, so I wouldn’t get too hung up on three bad starts.

 

Kevin Gausman – San Francisco Giants

 

In the offseason, Kevin Gausman signed a one-year prove it deal with the San Francisco Giants for nine million dollars. His first three starts in San Fran have been very intriguing. On one hand, he has a 5.27 ERA. On the other hand, he has a FIP of just 1.52, which is aided heavily by his incredible 15 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio. Granted it is hard to take much out of just 9 and 2/3 innings of work, especially given his track record. However, Gausman’s fastball velocity has ticked back up to an average of 94.6 MPH, the highest it has been since 2017.

 

As the next few weeks unfold, we will start to gain an even clearer picture of what the starting pitcher trade market will look like. Teams will roughly double their number of games played between now and then, to have a better idea if they want to go for it or not this season. We will also likely get a few more starts worth of data on these starting pitchers to have a clearer picture of who these guys are in 2020. Hopefully, the Twins are able to regain their health, and won’t need to rely on a trade, but even if that does happen, don’t be too surprised if they make a move to sure up their starting rotation even more before the deadline.

 

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[mikelink45]

Dream on - 

https://twinsdaily.com/blogs/entry/11971-let39s-trade-who-wants-to-do-it/

when I did this blog I was fascinated by the fact that 2/3 of the teams want pitching.  I shouldn't have been, but that is the true market.  We can want, but the chance of capturing any of these is slim and none.  What we need is to have someone step up.  Who is on the 60 man and why isn't Balazovic?

 

[Danchat]

Luis Castillo is the main option here I would look to acquire... he has ace potential and several years of control. He'd be really expensive, but the Twins really need an ace to anchor the rotation. 

 

I'm not interested in rentals, since most of our lower prospects worth trading for those sort of guys aren't on the 60 man pool. I would need the player to have control through at least 2021.

 

 

We can want, but the chance of capturing any of these is slim and none.What we need is to have someone step up.Who is on the 60 man and why isn't Balazovic?

 

We don't really know why, but I suppose he isn't that close to being MLB ready. 

 

FIY prospects who are on the 60 man pool:

 

#1 SS Royce Lewis

#2 OF Alex Kiriloff

#3 OF Trevor Larnach

#5 SP Jhoan Duran

#6 C Ryan Jeffers

#8 OF/1B Brent Rooker

#10 SP Lewis Thorpe

#11 OF Gilberto Celestino

#15 RP/SP Edwar Colina

#17 2B/3B Travis Blankenhorn

NR RP Jorge Alcala

NR SS/2B Nick Gordon

NR SP Dakota Chalmers

 

Not the biggest pool of guys to trade from, but we certainly have an abundance of outfielders. Also, I can't say I see Thorpe as a top 10 prospect or even top 15 at this point...

[howeda7]

I'm not trading for anyone who's not under control for at least 2021.

[bighat]

 

I'm not trading for anyone who's not under control for at least 2021.

Bingo.

 

So why not wait until 2021?

 

The Cardinals have played 5 games so far. FIVE. There are several other teams that have been affected by this virus.

 

Let's say you trade Royce Lewis for Dylan Bundy (okay, that would never happen but let's just say that it does). A week later, the entire team comes down with Covid-19 and are placed in quarantine.....and oh yeah, it's the PLAYOFFS. So what happens? Is the league going to wait for 3 weeks to start the playoffs because the Twins are sick? No. They'll be DQ'ed.

 

2020 should be treated as a year where you play the hand you were dealt. Do NOT give up anything of value to help you this year only. Absolute waste.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm not interested in rentals, since most of our lower prospects worth trading for those sort of guys aren't on the 60 man pool. I would need the player to have control through at least 2021.

I think you can still trade any prospect in 2020, but you just have to do non-60-man guys as a “player to be named later” who won’t be officially named until after the season. There have been several such trades already in 2020.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Kevin Gausman – San Francisco Giants

 

In the offseason, Kevin Gausman signed a one-year prove it deal with the San Francisco Giants for nine million dollars. His first three starts in San Fran have been very intriguing. On one hand, he has a 5.27 ERA. On the other hand, he has a FIP of just 1.52, which is aided heavily by his incredible 15 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio. Granted it is hard to take much out of just 9 and 2/3 innings of work, especially given his track record. However, Gausman’s fastball velocity has ticked back up to an average of 94.6 MPH, the highest it has been since 2017.

 

Gausman just turned in a very nice start vs the Dodgers on Sunday. He is up to 20 IP, 4.05 ERA, 2.27 FIP, 2 BB, 23 K for the season.

 

Of course, San Fran, like many is teams, is still within a half a game of a playoff berth...

[Vanimal46]

I'll be surprised if any major trades happen this year. And I would consider every name mentioned in the OP as a major trade in 2020. What owners are willing to take on additional expenses this year? Slim to none. What owners are willing to cut costs? 100% of them. 

[Darius]

After this last week, I’m not a big fan of shipping off prospects for anything. The playoffs are going to be such a crapshoot, and the way this team is playing right now the World Series is a pipe dream.

 

They could change my mind pretty quickly.

 

It also doesn’t make much sense to trade for a couple weeks of an expiring contract for a top prospect. Also, you could be shut down for an extended period at any time like the Cardinals. It’s possible that there are no playoffs.

 

Lastly, is anyone ever really out of it in a 60 game season with 8 teams from each league making the playoffs? It just takes one sustained winning streak.

 

I just can’t see any FOs buying or selling anything significant. It’s too expensive on the buy-side, and nobody is going to discount the asking price on the selling side.

[DocBauer]

I'm in the majority here, and guess I was before the season even began. With a short season, so many teams looking to be hot and have a shot at the playoffs and any season suddenly shoved off the rails due to injury or illness, I just don't see many moves.

 

And I don't see the Twins or anyone renting a player for 4 weeks. I think most teams are what they are, and have what they have, unless they are willing to over pay for 4 weeks and a couple seasons beyond of which only 2021 is more or less locked in as to actually happening.

[Trov]

I also am in majority that only take players that have 2021 locked up.  The problem is giving up someone from the list available for just 1 month and post season is very little reward for giving up years of control on a prospect, that could be used in other trades next year.  It may be possible that other prospects come back in trades for the 1 month rental, then I would be more open to it.  Not sure who would be avialable, but for example if you went after minor or bauer, you give up either lower level talent like poppin, or if you give up higher level guy like say Rooker, you get a similar prospect in return along with the MLB pitcher.  I just doubt many moves happen this year because of the short season.