Should Twins Fans Be Worried about Mitch Garver? There Are Others, Too

[Matthew Taylor]

Despite racing out to a 10-3 record to begin the season, the Minnesota Twins have had some of their key players crawl out to a slow start. Many of these players will turn things around sooner rather than later, but for some there is real cause for concern.Luis Arráez

.216/.286/.243

 

Reasons for concern:

Luis Arráez practically came out of nowhere in 2019 to have one of the best rookie seasons in Minnesota Twins history. It’s possible that we saw the best of Arráez in 2019, and that he was able to sneak up on the league while being unscouted. Now entering his second season, pitchers have made adjustments and Arráez is struggling early to catch up. In 2019, Arráez thrived on fastballs, producing a .364 batting average against them. This season, pitchers are throwing Arráez less fastballs and more breaking balls, against which Arráez is hitting just .083.

Additionally, Arráez hasn’t yet shown much improvement in the power department. After producing 3 hard hit balls (95+ MPH exit velocity) in a July 26 game against the Chicago White Sox, Arráez has only produced 5 hard hits since. Thus far in 2020, Arráez has only recorded a single extra base hit.

 

Reasons for confidence:

What made Arráez so special in 2019 was the plate discipline and maturity he showed as a 22-year old rookie. Thus far in 2020, Arráez has proven that his plate discipline was no fluke and that he knows the strike zone like the back of his hand. Thus far in the season, Arráez has lowered his chase rate from 2019 down to just 20% and is seeing more pitches per plate appearances than he did last year. Arráez has an xBA of .268 and a BABIP of .229 showing that he has largely been unlucky this season.

 

Worry-o-meter: 2/10

 

Miguel Sanó

.147/.171/.471

 

Reasons for concern:

Death, taxes, and Miguel Sanó mired in another strikeout-filled slump. To start the 2020 season, Sanó is batting 4-for-30, with 2 of those hits being from his 2-homer game against Cleveland over the weekend. What has been especially concerning for Sanó, as usual for him, are the strikeout numbers. To begin the 2020 season, Sanó is striking out 48% of the time with a sky-high whiff % of 50%. What has been the most concerning for Sanó is the fact that he is not chasing pitches more than usual, but that he is whiffing more on pitches in the zone. Thus far, Sanó has a zone contact % of just 64.2% (Career average is 73.2%). Right now pitchers are throwing Sanó hittable pitches and he is just swinging right through them.

 

Reasons for confidence:

Miguel Sanó has shown in the past that he can break out of slumps in a big way. During a stretch from mid-to-late June of 2019, Miguel Sanó suffered an extreme 3-for-39 slump with 23 strikeouts. In the middle of the slump, it was identified that Sanó had been tinkering with his swing and was re-learning his swing on the fly. Sanó turned around his season and had a career year as a result. After Sanó’s 2-homer game on Saturday, Sanó commented that he has again been tinkering with his swing and working on his hand positioning which has contributed to his slump to begin the year. Over his past 5 games, Sanó has hit 3 home runs and a double and appears to be turning the corner.

 

Worry-o-meter: 2/10

 

Byron Buxton

.174/.200/.348

 

Reasons for concern:

Byron Buxton has been awful to begin the 2020 season. He has produced only one hit, a single through the infield, and has struck out 6 times in 16 plate appearances. Thus far in the season, Buxton is chasing out of the zone more than ever (43.8%) and has more swinging strikes than ever (17.4%). Buxton has generally seemed pretty lost at the plate thus far and has not yet built off of his strong 2019 season before his shoulder injury. Additionally, Buxton’s foot will be a concern this season until he proves it’s not an issue. Byron has been consistent saying his foot is not yet 100% so, as is usually the case, health will always be a concern for the speedy center fielder.

 

Reasons for confidence:

Byron Buxton suffered mightily by his extremely short Summer Camp. Buxton came into camp late this Summer after welcoming the birth of his child, and then exited camp early after his ankle injury in an intrasquad game. As a result, Buxton is very much gaining back his timing and feel at the plate in real time. The fact that he has struggled is no surprise and should be expected given his offseason timeline. Despite his plate discipline struggles, Buxton has shown some positives at the plate. In limited plate appearances, Buxton has produced an average exit velocity of 89 MPH, topping out at 109.7 MPH. In Thursday afternoon's game, Buxton finally broke through with a solo home run, and came about 5 feet short from hitting a second. Buxton has been gaining more playing time over the past week, and should get more comfortable at the plate in the coming games as a result.

 

Will Thursday's showing catapult Buxton back to how he began 2019? Or will poor plate discipline hold him back all season?

 

Worry-o-meter: 4/10

 

Mitch Garver

.143/.296/.286

 

Reasons for concern:

Twins Daily’s Cody Christie wrote up a great piece earlier this week on Mitch Garver’s struggles to begin the 2020 season. In it, Cody brought up that pitchers have adjusted against Garver and are throwing him less fastballs. In 2019, Garver slugged .838 against the fastball, hitting 25 of his 31 home runs off that pitch. As was mentioned with Luis Arráez, pitchers adjusting against post-breakout players is always something of concern. The other concern for Garver is his high strikeout rate (38.7%) to begin the season. Garver’s zone contact % is down nearly 10% from his numbers last year, meaning he is swinging through pitches in the zone. As a catcher, Garver will only be playing in 60-70% of games as it is, so if he is not taking advantage of the more limited opportunities that he gets, much of his value is taken away and there is some reason for concern. Another reason for concern for Garver is that he was a late bloomer. Garver waited until he was 28 years old to break out, so the potential is there that 2019 was an outlier season.

 

Reasons for confidence:

Garver’s plate discipline and knowledge of the strike zone has again been elite to begin the 2020 season. Garver’s chase rate (9.2%) is lower than it’s ever been in his career and he is walking at a higher clip than he ever has before. Additionally, Garver has been seeing more pitches per plate appearances (5.07) than he ever has in his career. If Garver can continue to stay patient and work himself into fastball counts, there is plenty of reason to believe that he can break out of his slow start. There is some reason to believe that Garver has already started to do so, as on Sunday Garver belted a home run off of Cleveland’s Aaron Civale 412 feet at 102.2 MPH.

 

Worry-o-meter: 5/10

 

Josh Donaldson

.182/.296/.318

 

Reasons for concern:

As the crown jewel of the offseason for the Minnesota Twins, nobody could have predicted the start that we have seen from Josh Donaldson. Donaldson has been chasing, whiffing and striking out more than has ever done so in his career. Further, bad luck can’t even necessarily be contributed to his slow start as his expected batting average of .146 shows that his numbers should be even worse than they are right now. The biggest concern with Josh Donaldson, though, is his calf injury. Josh Donaldson has struggled his entire career with calf injuries, missing long parts of multiple seasons due to calf injuries in the past. Will this be another case of a calf injury that contributes to a lost season for Donaldson? Rocco Baldelli has been consistent in saying that the injury is minor, but with something that has hampered him so much in the past, there’s certainly reason to have concern.

 

Reasons for confidence:

Josh Donaldson has notoriously been a slow starter in his baseball career. In 2019, Donaldson posted an OPS 100 points higher in the second half of the season compared to the first. Despite the lower contact % to begin the season, when Donaldson has made contact, he has gotten good wood on the ball. Through the early part of the season, Donaldson is in the 85th percentile in exit velocity and 83rd percentile in hard hit percentage. While the calf injury does present concern, it’s easy to see why the Twins would be taking extra precaution with the Bringer of Rain in a season with expanded playoffs.

 

Worry-o-meter: 6/10

 

Which struggling Minnesota Twins hitter are you most concerned about? Most confident in? What does your "Worry-o-meter" read on each of these players? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

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[mikelink45]

They all worry me.  Today we lost to the Pirates and they are really bad.  One or two in a slump we can handle, but this is too many.  I am shocked by Arraez and confused by Donaldson.  Sano and Buxton have never registered high on my trust meter.  Garver was someone I really had high expectations for.  We are two games from 1/4 of the season.  Keep that in mind.  This 60 game or less season is really a challenge.

[Twodogs]

Arraez has struck the ball hard quite a few times, he has hit some line shots that have been caught. So eventually he will go through a streak where those line shots fall in and it will even out.

[DocBauer]

First, TREMENDOUS article Matt! Instead of vacant wonder or doom and gloom, you offer up both sides of the situation. Sincere applause.

 

Secondly, offense is down across baseball. It's not just the Twins. While pitchers are clearly not at the top of their game yet, it seems the batters are further behind league wide. It's more obvious than ever how important ST is relevant despite it's length.

 

Third, I think everyone just needs to stop with the borderline panic that "we've already played 20% of the season. Oh my!"

 

So what?

 

Because it's a short season, slumps should be shorter? The ramp up to get in a groove or make adjustments of any sort should automatically be shorter? How in the world does that make any sense???

 

With all respect and deference to the amazing Cruz, what would you rather have; a deep and talented winning team not firing on all cylinders the first couple of weeks who could explode at any time to finish the year? Or a team with no shot who might be a little hot/lucky early? (See Detroit).

 

We just need to stop this whole % of the season BS. Especially because we are winning.

 

Fourth, and most importantly, this team can EASILY be SO MUCH BETTER and very soon. They've still hit bombas. They've still had some great clutch hitting. They've still chased SP early in almost every game.

 

Garver and Arraez have ALWAYS hit at every level. They will make adjustments, sophomore slump or not. (Yes, Garver is more or less a junior, but you get the point).

 

Buxton and Sano basically had a couple days to get ready. Weird they don't already have their timing down and taking, right?

 

My point is, the positive side of the OP is what I am focusing on and believing in. Not just out of optimism, but based on talent and previous results.

 

Donaldson is the one outlier that concerns me. They say he is OK and they are just being cautious. Fine. I will buy in for now. His defense has been as advertised. His offense has been poor, but he's seen pitches and hasn't exactly embarrassed himself at the plate. And he's been notorious as a bit of a slow starter.

 

What concerns me is running slowly to 1B. He looked great in the field. Has be been slow out of the box to be conservative? Is that just him, devoid of speed, being safe when it seems an obvious out at 30+yrs? Or is there something more going on?

 

Donaldson brings a lot to this team. I think, from an experience perspective and tutorial perspective he brings a lot and already has, much like Cruz. And barring some massive regression due to age and injury, I think he's going to bring a lot to this team over his contract. And the Twins, as they are constructed, can survive and perform well without him right now. How many teams could plug Marwin in at 3B and Adrianza on occasion and barely miss a beat? But this team is so much better, over all, with a healthy Donalson in the field and at the plate.

 

I hope this latest injury is as mild as stated. I hope he is back soon and ready to go. But somewhat like Hill in the rotation, I want him 100% and ready to go for the second 30 games!

[mikelink45]

Why wasn't Donaldson put on the IL?  Bring in Blankenhorn.  Why play short handed?  

[Trov]

I like the article showing both sides.  My main comment is that we may be far into the season as it is, but it is still a small sample size over all.  The hitting numbers will shift quickly with a couple of hot games.  

 

Buxton, as long as he is fielding well he does not need to hit well.  Sure if he can hit to what we want great, but he helps the team on defense so much, he does not need to be an offensive monster, he hits 9th normally. 

 

Garver I am most worried about in terms of change in offense.  He needs to connect on his chances, because teams will give him very few now. 

[jkcarew]

Enough with the “Buxton’s so good in center, he doesn’t have to hit”. It’s. Just. Not. True. He has to at least be within shouting distance of league average. The good news with Buxton is that the last couple of games he’s looked much better. Sano and Garver have looked lost all season. Sano’s probably the only player I’ve ever watched that can hit a ball 120 mph in an at-bat and still manage to finish the game conveying the impression that he’s completely lost at the plate. Arraez will be fine...those that think he’s going to develop power...I don’t see it. To me, he’ll have to rely on high contact rate and BABiP. And the latter has been letting him down. Donaldson, it’s all about his health, so I don’t know what to think with him.

[SoDakTwinsFan4]

The new & improved scouting report on Mitch is in full effect. He will have to make adjustments to have success. Lets see if he can. I think he will

[bighat]

After last night against the Royals (where Garver struck out in the 9th on 3 straight pitches without swinging), Mitch is now batting .111 with 13 strikeouts in 27 at-bats. He's striking out half the time, and only has 3 hits all year.

 

I'm worried, yeah.

 

Garver has 2020 to figure this out and he probably will only play in 30 more games this season, max. He doesn't get things fixed, he's looking at becoming a clear-cut backup moving forward, maybe a platoon right-handed hitting catcher who just plays against left-handed pitching. A stat-line of .224 with 6 HR and 21 RBI might be a typical season for Mitch over the next few years as he bounces around trying to find work before retiring and heading back to coach in New Mex.

 

 

[stringer bell]

 

After last night against the Royals (where Garver struck out in the 9th on 3 straight pitches without swinging), Mitch is now batting .111 with 13 strikeouts in 27 at-bats. He's striking out half the time, and only has 3 hits all year.

 

I'm worried, yeah.

 

Garver has 2020 to figure this out and he probably will only play in 30 more games this season, max. He doesn't get things fixed, he's looking at becoming a clear-cut backup moving forward, maybe a platoon right-handed hitting catcher who just plays against left-handed pitching. A stat-line of .224 with 6 HR and 21 RBI might be a typical season for Mitch over the next few years as he bounces around trying to find work before retiring and heading back to coach in New Mex.

That's cold bighat! I guess I've doubted Garver more than most, but 10 games this year shouldn't be treated equally with his '19 season. He's a smart guy and he'll figure some of this out. It is possible that Mitch will never approach Silver Slugger status again and his future will include less than full-time work as a catcher. I would think if his struggles continue through this month that Avila will become more of a platoon partner, but Garver's history indicates he will hit.

 

The entire team isn't hitting and Donaldson's injury is concerning in light of his injury history. After an incredible first ten days, even Cruz has cooled and while Polanco's BA looks good, he must be leading the league in scratch hits and bloop singles. Thank goodness for good pitching and pretty good defense.

[bighat]

 

That's cold bighat! I guess I've doubted Garver more than most, but 10 games this year shouldn't be treated equally with his '19 season. He's a smart guy and he'll figure some of this out. It is possible that Mitch will never approach Silver Slugger status again and his future will include less than full-time work as a catcher. I would think if his struggles continue through this month that Avila will become more of a platoon partner, but Garver's history indicates he will hit.

 

Hope you're right! Yeah I was just looking at worse-case scenarios there. I think Mitch is good enough to figure it out, but it's really hard to watch when a guy like that just looks lost at the plate.

 

As you mentioned, the entire offense is struggling - which I think puts more pressure on everyone, and as fans we all probably find it easier to groan a bit louder at the guys who haven't contributed yet.