Article: In Terry I Trust

[lee_the_twins_fan]

Yes, I did not realize that... Interesting it was 10th in runs scored, 11th in hits and 14th in home runs in 2012. In 2011, however, it was 21st in runs scored, 20th in home runs and tied for 11th in hits.

 

I suspect Minnesota's bad pitching last year contributed to the increased run production on ESPN's chart.

 

It appears the field has essentially leveled out between pitching and hitting.

[ThePuck]

Yes, I did not realize that... Interesting it was 10th in runs scored, 11th in hits and 14th in home runs in 2012. In 2011, however, it was 21st in runs scored, 20th in home runs and tied for 11th in hits.

 

I suspect Minnesota's bad pitching last year contributed to the increased run production on ESPN's chart.

 

It appears the field has essentially leveled out between pitching an hitting.

 

Twins pitching was pretty bad in 2011 too :-) I think we're seeing eye to eye though.

[gunnarthor]

Well, I think this thread helped us learn a lot about certain posters, if nothing else. I am stunned that someone on the internet failed to apologize for his comments and, in spite of evidence to the contrary, dug in and purposefully ignored/misunderstood other posters to do so. Absolutely stunned.

 

I'd still like to hear how BJ Upton is a better player then Denard Span, especially moving forward. Not a better value, not a better person, a better player..

 

Span had a higher WAR last year than Upton. Span had the higher wOBA last year. One could quite rationally look at downward trend lines in Upton's defensive value over the last few years to suggest the 1000 or so games are starting to add up on his body. But that's never been the point. There are arguments either way. But your treatment of Brock and Puck was purposefully dense, to be kind.

[lee_the_twins_fan]

And Willingham's contribution added to the field's home run numbers.

[lee_the_twins_fan]

Yes, I did not realize that... Interesting it was 10th in runs scored, 11th in hits and 14th in home runs in 2012. In 2011, however, it was 21st in runs scored, 20th in home runs and tied for 11th in hits.

 

I suspect Minnesota's bad pitching last year contributed to the increased run production on ESPN's chart.

 

It appears the field has essentially leveled out between pitching an hitting.

 

Twins pitching was pretty bad in 2011 too :-) I think we're seeing eye to eye though.

 

True.

[diehardtwinsfan]

This is like being back at BYTO except that there's more people to fuel the madness.

 

Not to get back on topic, but Terry Ryan never seemed to be the type that liked being forced into a trade. Some have suggested that this was part of the reason he resigned so that he didn't have to deal with the Santana mess... and the Hunter mess... I'm with Nick on this one. Terry hasn't lost out often when he let the market come to him. Bill Smith on the other hand, was just the opposite. Now I just hope that he will actually make some good FA moves.

[Wookiee of the Year]

Good find with those quotes.

 

I wonder what level of pitcher Span would've brought in a trade for an established major league SP. I have to think at maximum value, not much better than a #4 with maybe #3 upside. And given the Twins likely won't be much good until Meyer hits the majors, anyway, there's no reason not to delay talent.

 

That's probably the standard I'll hold Meyer to now--as long as he turns out to be at least a #4, I'll say we got full value for Span. I like Terry Ryan's approach of preferring upside over established mediocre guys, and I'd say early signs point to Span bringing a solid return.

[ThePuck]

Good find with those quotes.

 

I wonder what level of pitcher Span would've brought in a trade for an established major league SP. I have to think at maximum value, not much better than a #4 with maybe #3 upside. And given the Twins likely won't be much good until Meyer hits the majors, anyway, there's no reason not to delay talent.

 

That's probably the standard I'll hold Meyer to now--as long as he turns out to be at least a #4, I'll say we got full value for Span. I like Terry Ryan's approach of preferring upside over established mediocre guys, and I'd say early signs point to Span bringing a solid return.

 

If we have to wait till 2014, 2015 (two, three seasons) and he's only a #4 pitcher, we got straight up robbed.

[deanlambrecht]

Nick, you touched on a point that I mentioned a few days ago but seems to have fallen by the wayside:

 

I think Meyer was Ryan's target all along, dating back to last July. I think it was only after the Upton signing that Rizzo buckled to the pressure and gave up what Terry wanted for Span.

 

Patience is a virtue. From an outside observer, this looks to be a classic example of letting the market come to you instead of forcing the issue. And I don't think Ryan could have done much better with this move. Meyer is exactly what Twins fans have been clamoring for since Santana left.

 

Hope this hasn't been said yet but I'm rushing. Sorry.

 

Patience fits both sides of the coin in this story. Rizzo was likely reluctant to take Span mid way through the year when he was still a bit more of an unknown vis a vis his concussion recovery status. Denard made it through, as we know, with flying colors, so that question mark for Rizzo goes away.

 

If that's the case, that's good work by both GMs.

[Kwak]

Back to the thread--Trust in Terry. The Strib published a story on the Twins today and it appears that Ryan is backing off from his statement of "three new starting pitchers".

"I don't think you can put a number on it." "We will try to get as many as we can." And we're not going to get someone just for the sake of adding someone." "It has to be someone who likes our situation...".

 

I infer that Ryan realizes that adding three new SPs was a tall order and likely based on certain assumptions--like cost and available dollars in the budget. I read where the budget is probably $90MM rather than the $100MM figure bandied about (by others). "...like our situation..." likely excludes someone who just wants a 1-year "make-good" contract so he can get a big raise for 2014--hence "Goodbye" to Baker--who probably was the most likely free agent who would sign with the Twins for 2013. I perceived that his earlier statements implied that the talent level in 2013 would be significantly improved--no, not to the level of playoff contender--but to the level of a .500 ballclub. I guess I don't know if my definition of "Trust" is the same as Nick Nelson, but from now on I will take any statement Ryan makes with a grain of salt--not because of dishonesty--but because he is speaking for others and the assumptions made for his statements can change significantly due to the whims of others.

[Wookiee of the Year]

Good find with those quotes.

 

I wonder what level of pitcher Span would've brought in a trade for an established major league SP. I have to think at maximum value, not much better than a #4 with maybe #3 upside. And given the Twins likely won't be much good until Meyer hits the majors, anyway, there's no reason not to delay talent.

 

That's probably the standard I'll hold Meyer to now--as long as he turns out to be at least a #4, I'll say we got full value for Span. I like Terry Ryan's approach of preferring upside over established mediocre guys, and I'd say early signs point to Span bringing a solid return.

 

If we have to wait till 2014, 2015 (two, three seasons) and he's only a #4 pitcher, we got straight up robbed.

You really think there's any chance he debuts in 2013? Especially given the Twins' M.O. of slowly advancing prospects? I think 2014's a pretty good bet but 2015 strikes me as more likely than 2013.

 

Will I be disappointed if Meyer ends up only a #4? Absolutely. But I don't think two years of Span, even with his team-friendly contract, was going to draw a return much larger than that in an MLB-ready player, anyway.

[ThePuck]

Good find with those quotes.

 

I wonder what level of pitcher Span would've brought in a trade for an established major league SP. I have to think at maximum value, not much better than a #4 with maybe #3 upside. And given the Twins likely won't be much good until Meyer hits the majors, anyway, there's no reason not to delay talent.

 

That's probably the standard I'll hold Meyer to now--as long as he turns out to be at least a #4, I'll say we got full value for Span. I like Terry Ryan's approach of preferring upside over established mediocre guys, and I'd say early signs point to Span bringing a solid return.

 

If we have to wait till 2014, 2015 (two, three seasons) and he's only a #4 pitcher, we got straight up robbed.

You really think there's any chance he debuts in 2013? Especially given the Twins' M.O. of slowly advancing prospects? I think 2014's a pretty good bet but 2015 strikes me as more likely than 2013.

 

Will I be disappointed if Meyer ends up only a #4? Absolutely. But I don't think two years of Span, even with his team-friendly contract, was going to draw a return much larger than that in an MLB-ready player, anyway.

 

Nope, I absolutely don't...I've been saying 2015 myself...but if he makes it, and I absolutely believe he will, I don't think he'll just be a number 4

[jokin]

Nick, you touched on a point that I mentioned a few days ago but seems to have fallen by the wayside:

 

I think Meyer was Ryan's target all along, dating back to last July. I think it was only after the Upton signing that Rizzo buckled to the pressure and gave up what Terry wanted for Span.

 

Patience is a virtue. From an outside observer, this looks to be a classic example of letting the market come to you instead of forcing the issue. And I don't think Ryan could have done much better with this move. Meyer is exactly what Twins fans have been clamoring for since Santana left.

 

Hope this hasn't been said yet but I'm rushing. Sorry.

 

Patience fits both sides of the coin in this story. Rizzo was likely reluctant to take Span mid way through the year when he was still a bit more of an unknown vis a vis his concussion recovery status. Denard made it through, as we know, with flying colors, so that question mark for Rizzo goes away.

 

If that's the case, that's good work by both GMs.

 

It didn't hurt his value to remain committed to him CF, as well. Well played by the GM.

[ThePuck]

 

It didn't hurt his value to remain committed to him CF, as well. Well played by the GM.

 

Didn't hurt he was our best option at CF either

[jokin]

Back to the thread--Trust in Terry. The Strib published a story on the Twins today and it appears that Ryan is backing off from his statement of "three new starting pitchers".

"I don't think you can put a number on it." "We will try to get as many as we can." And we're not going to get someone just for the sake of adding someone." "It has to be someone who likes our situation...".

 

I infer that Ryan realizes that adding three new SPs was a tall order and likely based on certain assumptions--like cost and available dollars in the budget. I read where the budget is probably $90MM rather than the $100MM figure bandied about (by others). "...like our situation..." likely excludes someone who just wants a 1-year "make-good" contract so he can get a big raise for 2014--hence "Goodbye" to Baker--who probably was the most likely free agent who would sign with the Twins for 2013. I perceived that his earlier statements implied that the talent level in 2013 would be significantly improved--no, not to the level of playoff contender--but to the level of a .500 ballclub. I guess I don't know if my definition of "Trust" is the same as Nick Nelson, but from now on I will take any statement Ryan makes with a grain of salt--not because of dishonesty--but because he is speaking for others and the assumptions made for his statements can change significantly due to the whims of others.

 

The last quote belies what certain posters have proffered on TD, ie "that 20 out of 21 times, a player always takes the most money on the table".

 

My guess is that TR's early contacts with agents around even the second-tier SPs have told Ryan that their clients would have to absolutely blown away in an offer to even consider the Twins- and there ain't no way that Ryan is going to ridiculously overbid.

 

I agree with your last paragraph completely. See AsburyJohn's quote for your last comment- Being GM is a very very tough job. Shooting for .500 will be a tall, tall order............ talking out of the side your mouth to agents, the fans and the media about "contending" has to represent a Migraine-inducing level of Cognitive Dissonance.

[jokin]

 

It didn't hurt his value to remain committed to him CF, as well. Well played by the GM.

 

Didn't hurt he was our best option at CF either

 

Not sure about that, he was a terrific RF and I would have taken the trade-off at flipping the RF and CF (the new CFer's best position is CF, not right, which was his worst), if it would have mattered in the standings.

[jokin]

Good find with those quotes.

 

I wonder what level of pitcher Span would've brought in a trade for an established major league SP. I have to think at maximum value, not much better than a #4 with maybe #3 upside. And given the Twins likely won't be much good until Meyer hits the majors, anyway, there's no reason not to delay talent.

 

That's probably the standard I'll hold Meyer to now--as long as he turns out to be at least a #4, I'll say we got full value for Span. I like Terry Ryan's approach of preferring upside over established mediocre guys, and I'd say early signs point to Span bringing a solid return.

 

If we have to wait till 2014, 2015 (two, three seasons) and he's only a #4 pitcher, we got straight up robbed.

You really think there's any chance he debuts in 2013? Especially given the Twins' M.O. of slowly advancing prospects? I think 2014's a pretty good bet but 2015 strikes me as more likely than 2013.

 

Will I be disappointed if Meyer ends up only a #4? Absolutely. But I don't think two years of Span, even with his team-friendly contract, was going to draw a return much larger than that in an MLB-ready player, anyway.

 

Nope, I absolutely don't...I've been saying 2015 myself...but if he makes it, and I absolutely believe he will, I don't think he'll just be a number 4

 

2015 is the most realistic DOA. Would love to see some combination of Johnson and Verlander from the new Staff Ace. To go with Gibson, Diamond, Wimmers and Berrios on the fast-track in June of that year to replace the latest Jason Marquis flop. We can still hope, can't we?

[ThePuck]

 

It didn't hurt his value to remain committed to him CF, as well. Well played by the GM.

 

Didn't hurt he was our best option at CF either

 

Not sure about that, he was a terrific RF and I would have taken the trade-off at flipping the RF and CF (the new CFer's best position is CF, not right, which was his worst), if it would have mattered in the standings.

 

He was rated as the 3rd best defensive CF in baseball this year. That's darn good. I'm comfortable in saying he was our best option. I know Revere has the speed, but I'm not quite comfortable with him reading the ball of the bat well yet. He misjudges a lot. RF is more forgiving in that regard due to less space to cover. His UZR was very high in RF mostly due to having a lot of bad RFs to compare him to

[ThePuck]

Anyway, I gotta crash...I enjoyed the conversation. Later

[jokin]

 

It didn't hurt his value to remain committed to him CF, as well. Well played by the GM.

 

Didn't hurt he was our best option at CF either

 

Not sure about that, he was a terrific RF and I would have taken the trade-off at flipping the RF and CF (the new CFer's best position is CF, not right, which was his worst), if it would have mattered in the standings.

 

He was rated as the 3rd best defensive CF in baseball this year. That's darn good. I'm comfortable in saying he was our best option. I know Revere has the speed, but I'm not quite comfortable with him reading the ball of the bat well yet. He misjudges a lot. RF is more forgiving in that regard due to less space to cover. His UZR was very high in RF mostly due to having a lot of bad RFs to compare him to

 

I agree with you- Span is better than Revere in judging the wall and obviously has a better arm. He doesn't nearly cover the ground anymore that Revere does, but I still think with Span being better than Revere at both positions based on experience and arm, it would have been better to have Revere in CF--- but again, only because it would have maximized what Revere does best and minimize all the runners who advanced two bases on him (1st-3rd, 2nd to Home) that would have had much more respect for Span in RF. Again, this only would have mattered in my way of thinking if the Twins had had any chance of competing, and the opposite positioning being employed could have been evaluated within a month and just as easily proven you to be correct.

[jokin]

Anyway, I gotta crash...I enjoyed the conversation. Later

 

Thanks, same goes.

[ThePuck]

 

It didn't hurt his value to remain committed to him CF, as well. Well played by the GM.

 

Didn't hurt he was our best option at CF either

 

Not sure about that, he was a terrific RF and I would have taken the trade-off at flipping the RF and CF (the new CFer's best position is CF, not right, which was his worst), if it would have mattered in the standings.

 

He was rated as the 3rd best defensive CF in baseball this year. That's darn good. I'm comfortable in saying he was our best option. I know Revere has the speed, but I'm not quite comfortable with him reading the ball of the bat well yet. He misjudges a lot. RF is more forgiving in that regard due to less space to cover. His UZR was very high in RF mostly due to having a lot of bad RFs to compare him to

 

I agree with you- Span is better than Revere in judging the wall and obviously has a better arm. He doesn't nearly cover the ground anymore that Revere does, but I still think with Span being better than Revere at both positions based on experience and arm, it would have been better to have Revere in CF--- but again, only because it would have maximized what Revere does best and minimize all the runners who advanced two bases on him (1st-3rd, 2nd to Home) that would have had much more respect for Span in RF. Again, this only would have mattered in my way of thinking if the Twins had had any chance of competing, and the opposite positioning being employed could have been evaluated within a month and just as easily proven you to be correct.

 

Since you're still here...one more thing...concerning range. Span was rated as having the third best range of any CF and the 4th most plays made outside of zone. Again, the amount of plays might have had to do with the chances, but the range (RZR) was still top notch. Now I'm really out, I swear :-)

[jokin]

 

It didn't hurt his value to remain committed to him CF, as well. Well played by the GM.

 

Didn't hurt he was our best option at CF either

 

Not sure about that, he was a terrific RF and I would have taken the trade-off at flipping the RF and CF (the new CFer's best position is CF, not right, which was his worst), if it would have mattered in the standings.

 

He was rated as the 3rd best defensive CF in baseball this year. That's darn good. I'm comfortable in saying he was our best option. I know Revere has the speed, but I'm not quite comfortable with him reading the ball of the bat well yet. He misjudges a lot. RF is more forgiving in that regard due to less space to cover. His UZR was very high in RF mostly due to having a lot of bad RFs to compare him to

 

I agree with you- Span is better than Revere in judging the wall and obviously has a better arm. He doesn't nearly cover the ground anymore that Revere does, but I still think with Span being better than Revere at both positions based on experience and arm, it would have been better to have Revere in CF--- but again, only because it would have maximized what Revere does best and minimize all the runners who advanced two bases on him (1st-3rd, 2nd to Home) that would have had much more respect for Span in RF. Again, this only would have mattered in my way of thinking if the Twins had had any chance of competing, and the opposite positioning being employed could have been evaluated within a month and just as easily proven you to be correct.

 

Since you're still here...one more thing...concerning range. Span was rated as having the third best range of any CF and the 4th most plays made outside of zone. Again, the amount of plays might have had to do with the chances, but the range (RZR) was still top notch. Now I'm really out, I swear :-)

 

To me that's one of those eyeball-test-failure stats. Span to this naked eye anyway (perhaps it was my built-in assumption of his concussion-wariness), appeared to be much more conservative in his approach this year, back a step deeper and a little less relentless attacking the wall and he botched his fair share of sure outs into plays ruled as hits or errors, I also perceived some deferral to the RF at times, perhaps that's why both their scores might be a little artificially higher?

[mako83]

Good find with those quotes.

 

I wonder what level of pitcher Span would've brought in a trade for an established major league SP. I have to think at maximum value, not much better than a #4 with maybe #3 upside. And given the Twins likely won't be much good until Meyer hits the majors, anyway, there's no reason not to delay talent.

 

That's probably the standard I'll hold Meyer to now--as long as he turns out to be at least a #4, I'll say we got full value for Span. I like Terry Ryan's approach of preferring upside over established mediocre guys, and I'd say early signs point to Span bringing a solid return.

 

If we have to wait till 2014, 2015 (two, three seasons) and he's only a #4 pitcher, we got straight up robbed.

 

If we wait two years and he is still a number four that means we have a better rotation right now De Vries looks like our number four

[70charger]

Good find with those quotes.

 

I wonder what level of pitcher Span would've brought in a trade for an established major league SP. I have to think at maximum value, not much better than a #4 with maybe #3 upside. And given the Twins likely won't be much good until Meyer hits the majors, anyway, there's no reason not to delay talent.

 

That's probably the standard I'll hold Meyer to now--as long as he turns out to be at least a #4, I'll say we got full value for Span. I like Terry Ryan's approach of preferring upside over established mediocre guys, and I'd say early signs point to Span bringing a solid return.

 

If we have to wait till 2014, 2015 (two, three seasons) and he's only a #4 pitcher, we got straight up robbed.

You really think there's any chance he debuts in 2013? Especially given the Twins' M.O. of slowly advancing prospects? I think 2014's a pretty good bet but 2015 strikes me as more likely than 2013.

 

Will I be disappointed if Meyer ends up only a #4? Absolutely. But I don't think two years of Span, even with his team-friendly contract, was going to draw a return much larger than that in an MLB-ready player, anyway.

 

Nope, I absolutely don't...I've been saying 2015 myself...but if he makes it, and I absolutely believe he will, I don't think he'll just be a number 4

 

2015 is the most realistic DOA. Would love to see some combination of Johnson and Verlander from the new Staff Ace. To go with Gibson, Diamond, Wimmers and Berrios on the fast-track in June of that year to replace the latest Jason Marquis flop. We can still hope, can't we?

 

DOA? Dead on arrival? God I hope not.

 

Kidding aside, I think we might look for him in 2014. Maybe optimistic, but if he progresses as he should, it could happen.

[ThePuck]

To me that's one of those eyeball-test-failure stats. Span to this naked eye anyway (perhaps it was my built-in assumption of his concussion-wariness), appeared to be much more conservative in his approach this year, back a step deeper and a little less relentless attacking the wall and he botched his fair share of sure outs into plays ruled as hits or errors, I also perceived some deferral to the RF at times, perhaps that's why both their scores might be a little artificially higher?

 

I think it's cause he reads the ball of the bats so well, he's not making the super flashy play (which a lot of times are because you misjudged the ball to begin with). The guy has the range, reads the ball well, takes the best routes and has the smarts. Additionally, if he was deferring to RF, his RZR would be lower, not the 3rd best. My eye test seems to match what the defensive metrics say and the Fielding Bible award voters said...that he was the third best defensive CF in baseball this last season. But he's not flashy, that's for sure. He doesn't need to be.

 

I'm gonna miss him playing for us.

[Mike Sixel]

I am shocked that Ryan might be backing off spending money. Never would have predicted that....still hoping.