Has a Change in Pitch Usage Ascended Kenta Maeda to the Next Level?

[Patrick Wozniak]

Yes, it’s just two starts. But Kenta Maeda has looked good. Real good.Maeda was masterful in his most recent start against Cleveland. Cleveland hitters managed just one hit over six innings and it was a questionable one at that. The speedy Bradley Zimmer hit a slow roller to Luis Arraez at second and was called safe on a bang-bang play. Maeda went on to strike out six while walking only one on just 83 pitches.

 

When Minnesota traded the flame-throwing Brusdar Graterol to the Los Angeles Dodgers they knew they were getting a good pitcher in Maeda, but it’s possible the pitching coach Wes Johnson has already unlocked another level. Maeda has always depended on mainly a three-pitch mix including a four-seamer, a slider he threw against right-handed batters, and a split-change used on lefties. While the pitches haven’t changed, their usage has.

 

If we look back to 2019, Maeda threw his four-seam fastball 33.7% of the time, making it his most used pitch. It was also the pitch that hitters did the most damage to with a .381 wOBA. Fortunately, Maeda also relied heavily on his slider, which is his best pitch (.211 wOBA, 40.7 whiff%), and to a lesser extent on his changeup, featured heavily against lefties and also a very good pitch (36.2 whiff%). Maeda also threw in the occasional curve against lefties and sinker against righties, but mainly relied on the three-pitch mix.

 

So what’s been different this season?

 

First off, Maeda’s four seamer has gone from his most used pitch to third (25.1%), falling behind both his slider (37.1%) and changeup (30.5%). On the surface, just throwing his best pitches more often has seemed to help, which certainly makes sense. But it’s also likely that all the sliders and changeups are making the fastball harder to pick up. In the small sample size that has been the 2020 season, the four-seamer has actually gotten the best results as batters have yet to collect a hit off it.

 

Download attachment: Maeda pitch mix chart.png

 

While throwing more of his best pitches has certainly helped, Maeda’s also started using all three pitches against both righties and lefties. In 2019, Maeda threw 766 sliders and 629 of them were thrown to right-handed batters (as the slider runs away from righties) and 506 of his 577 changeups came against lefties (same idea – it runs away). Through two starts, 2020 has been a completely different story. Of his 62 sliders, just 24 have come against right-handed batters while he’s thrown 38 to lefties. He’s continued to throw his changeup more to lefties, but hasn’t been afraid to mix it into righties as well, who have seen 15 of his 51 changeups.

 

Clearly, giving both righties and lefties an extra pitch that they have to worry about has kept hitters from getting comfortable against Maeda so far. He’s continued to get swings and misses and weak contact as we’d expect, but he’s also been able to get more ground balls. For his career Maeda has averaged just a 42.4% ground ball rate, but in his first two starts he’s gotten 53.8%. Again, it’s a small sample size, but it will be interesting to see if Maeda’s changes in pitch usage continue to lead to more ground balls.

 

With the Twins already placing starters Jake Odorrizi, Homer Bailey, and Rich Hill on the IL, having Kenta Maeda take it to another level is certainly a welcome development. Minnesota’s off to a great start, but when (if?) the postseason comes around, having an even better, dare I say “ace-like,” version of Maeda toeing the rubber will be epic.

 

What do you think? Is Kenta Maeda the real deal or I am just overreacting to small sample sizes? Please leave your comments below!

 

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[Dman]

Too small of a sample size for me but the trend is still worth pointing out.  TIme will tell if you are a soothsayer or not. 

[by jiminy]

He sure looked for real against Cleveland. Not knowing whether a breaking ball will dive to the left or right has to be pretty confusing. And he was locating his fastball really well too.

 

I find your analysis very convincing. Last year, you only had to watch for two pitches, depending on whether you were a lefty or a righty. Now, you have to watch fire all three, with a few others sprinkled in. Why wouldn't that make him harder to hit? And he was already very effective before. I don't see any reason this is a bubble that is going to burst. If he keeps doing what he's been doing, he's going to be very hard to hit.

[drivlikejehu]

Still early of course, but his average FB velocity is actually the highest in his career. He has 3 fastballs - 4 seam (93 mph), sinker (92 mph), and cutter (88 mph). Those are really his #3, #4, and #5 pitches, behind his slider and change-up. When he's hitting his spots he can compete with anyone for 6 innings. Really exciting combination of ability and team-friendly contract, which is what made Graterol a reasonable price to pay.

 

And let's face it, Graterol is a reliever. I know the Twins didn't want to say it and the Dodgers didn't want to say it, but it is what it is. The Twins desperately needed more quality starting pitchers and they got one.

[Trov]

I wonder how much is fact very few of guys have seen him.  Lets see how things go when he starts facing same hitters several times.  I am still big on him, do not regret the trade at all because Graterol was not going to be a dominate starter that people hoped.  Boston learned that and back out of deal.  As seen, you can find quality pen guys all over the place, they just need the right small changes.  Wes seems to know how to get a guy to throw the right pitches.  

[jmlease1]

I was a fan of Maeda before and I'm very impressed so far. He knows how to pitch and he's got the stuff to compete. Sure it's early and a small sample, but the results are exactly what we were hoping for. We won't likely be able to really evaluate if the Twins have helped him unlock something consistently until much later in the season, but the results are very encouraging so far.

 

Having a core of Berrios, Maeda, and Pineda for next year's staff regardless of anything else is also something that I think is a good thing.

[Brandon]

Lets see how he does against the Dodgers in the World Series. If he can shut out his old team, I will agree that you are right..... Though I do think the extra pitch is a big deal in terms of improvements.