My questions for you is how you divy 15 to 25 million with absolutely no more than 25 million going to Starting Pitching?

 

http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?2212-25-Million-left-for-3-starting-Pitchers

Anibel Sanchez 5/80

Erik Bedard 1/4

Francisco Liriano 1/4 or Shawn Marcum 2/10

 

either that or Sanches for 5/80 and Haren 1/10

Anibel Sanchez 5/80

Erik Bedard 1/4

Francisco Liriano 1/4 or Shawn Marcum 2/10

 

either that or Sanches for 5/80 and Haren 1/10

 

That's pretty good there. I would say something like 13 for Jackson, 9 for Marcum, and perhaps a couple minor league deals.

Shaun Marcum 3/24

Greinke 5/95

Pavano 1/1

12-15/yr for one pitcher

5-10/yr for the 2nd pitcher

scraps for the 3rd

 

Quality > Quantity

Shaun Marcum 3/24

Greinke 5/95

Pavano 1/1

 

That contract WOULD probably guarantee Marcum, but they can probably get him for less. Perhaps even a 1-year 9 million dollar deal with a 11 million team option and million dollar buyout.

 

Greinke is going to get that minimally somewhere else. 6/120 and you might get him.

 

Pavano needs to never be in a Twins uniform again.

12-15/yr for one pitcher

5-10/yr for the 2nd pitcher

scraps for the 3rd

 

Quality > Quantity

Exactly.

 

The 3rd pitcher can be a scrap heap signing, honestly I think Hendriks might have a shot to be a solid #5 this year, meaning we only really need 2 pitchers out of FA

Edwin Jackson 4-years $48 million

Ryan Dempster 3-years $33 million

Francisco Liriano 1-year $2 million

Edwin Jackson 4-years $48 million

Ryan Dempster 3-years $33 million

Francisco Liriano 1-year $2 million

No to Dempster for any price, especially for 3 years. Liriano is also going to get more money.

 

Grienke for 5/110 with an option. Liriano for 2 years 12 million and an option. No need for another pitcher. Grienke instantly makes this team a .500 team, and Liriano will have his usual swing year. I really wanted Baker too, but the Cubs gave him a nice offer (he will be worth every penny IMO). Send invites or cheap one year incentive deals to Bedard, Sheets, Pavano, Braden, Harden. This team will seriously compete in 3 years, giving Grienke a nice contract guarantees an elite pitcher for then. Grienke, Gibson, Hendriks and Diamond would be the core going forward, and Meyer, Berrios coming up after them.

So we've had two starting pitchers sign already - have any of the people who have posted suggested contracts been aware of this? Scott Feldman got 6M and you think Liriano gets 2? Bedard 4? Marcum 8?

 

Is this topic trolling or are people just not paying attention to who has already been signed?

It's been opined elsewhere that some of these FA pitchers with a question mark or two due to health or other factors, might consider one year deals in a pitcher friendly ballpark in order to drive up their value for next season. McCarthy, Haren, Jurrjens, Lannon and quite a few others could fall into that catagory. If you got Haren for 1/10, you might be able to backload a nice deal for a guy like Sanchez and still have enough to spend on another decent arm.

12-15/yr for one pitcher

5-10/yr for the 2nd pitcher

scraps for the 3rd

 

Quality > Quantity

 

Given the state of our rotation last year, quantity is needed too... I agree that there has to be at least 1 blue chip signing, and like you I'd prefer a middle tier signing, but regardless, all signings need to target upside.

So we've had two starting pitchers sign already - have any of the people who have posted suggested contracts been aware of this? Scott Feldman got 6M and you think Liriano gets 2? Bedard 4? Marcum 8?

 

Is this topic trolling or are people just not paying attention to who has already been signed?

 

I agree that everyone is undervaluing pitchers too. I'd say 10-13 million for Marcum and Bedard 5-8. That's still enough for both of those two and possibly a pitcher on the cheap. The Twins should be willing to spend a little more than 25 million.

The market is weird. I don't think it is that unusual to have overpaying early and then after the meetings, the market resets. Feldman got RIDICULOUSLY lucky, given that he isn't very good. Marcum has an injury concern as well.

 

The Twins could still overpay Jackson and Marcum at $25 million a year combined. If Gorzelanny can be had for a MiL contract, that would be nice.

haren/marcum and jurrjens and the roll the dice on the scrap heap

The market is weird. I don't think it is that unusual to have overpaying early and then after the meetings, the market resets. Feldman got RIDICULOUSLY lucky, given that he isn't very good. Marcum has an injury concern as well.

 

The Twins could still overpay Jackson and Marcum at $25 million a year combined. If Gorzelanny can be had for a MiL contract, that would be nice.

 

Early signings often set the market. Especially since these early signings are supposed to be the bargain guys. Usually the huge overpayments are to much better pitchers. This year even the scrubs are making bank. Pettite at 12, Feldman at 6, Baker at 5 all indicate that the estimates here are about 40% too low.

 

I would like to see the Twins sign Marcum and another 8-10M pitcher and that is going to chew up pretty much that entire budget assuming 25M. But it's becoming silly to see these estimates that are cartoonishly low.

12-15/yr for one pitcher

5-10/yr for the 2nd pitcher

scraps for the 3rd

 

Quality > Quantity

 

Given the state of our rotation last year, quantity is needed too... I agree that there has to be at least 1 blue chip signing, and like you I'd prefer a middle tier signing, but regardless, all signings need to target upside.

 

That's true but if you spread the money across too many pitchers you end up getting crap at each spot.

Surprised noone mentions McCarthy. I think he's the 3rd best pitcher on the market.

I wouldn't be surprised if Marcum got a nice contract, but I have a tough time believing guys like Bedard and Liriano who have had their good moments but have plenty of baggage are going to get big contracts. I could see something that is incentive laden, but given their question marks, I highly doubt they are going to get huge contracts.

 

The market is weird in part b/c teams went out and got the guy they were targeting, and at this stage of the game, with the big tier pitchers not falling, you are going to overpay a bit to get it. There might be something to the added revenue thing, but that will affect the contracts for good talent, not some guy that has just as much chance of being a disaster as he does making good on his contract.

I'd bet agents, and some teams, are factoring in next year's additional money for everyone (they'd be crazy not to if they are signing multi-year deals). So, I think the numbers here are, in general, low.

Regardless, $25 million for Jackson, Marcum, and minor league flyers for one or more guys seems pretty doable. Sanchez would be nicer than either, of course.