Is this the offseason to extend Revere?

[jorgenswest]

Risk of extending? See Nick Blackburn.

 

Risk of not extending? Revere becomes a much better player than projected and he is due a big pay day in arbitration.

 

I'd take the second risk. The first means you carry around a poorly performing player too long because of the contract. The second means you pay more for good performance.

 

The Twins are not a small market team. They can afford to pay high performing players their due in arbitration.

[Shane Wahl]

No. Hell no. Play him for another year or two and then flip him.

 

Yes, if the Twins find themselves needing him as a starting OF in 2014 it is simply a bad thing. I like the guy and all a lot, but there is no long-term future with him. Hopefully he improves enough to add to his trade value (same for Parmelee, because neither are long-term starters for the Twins).

[Alex]

There's also this guy named Buxton, too, though I realize he's a ways off and no sure thing...But the Twins have 2-3 players behind Revere who could play CF (3 if you count Joe Benson). If Hicks and Benson don't work out, Buxton could be ready by the time Revere starts to get expensive. The point is, there are 2-3 players (again, Benson needs to rebound) could be better than Revere, so there's a good chance that one of them works out. If they bust, you can do as Jorgenwest says and consider re-signing him at that point. It's just not worth it right now.

[DaveW]

You don't give extensions to 4th outfielders

[Shane Wahl]

You don't give extensions to 4th outfielders

 

You just hurt Mastro's feelings.

[Shane Wahl]

There's also this guy named Buxton, too, though I realize he's a ways off and no sure thing...But the Twins have 2-3 players behind Revere who could play CF (3 if you count Joe Benson). If Hicks and Benson don't work out, Buxton could be ready by the time Revere starts to get expensive. The point is, there are 2-3 players (again, Benson needs to rebound) could be better than Revere, so there's a good chance that one of them works out. If they bust, you can do as Jorgenwest says and consider re-signing him at that point. It's just not worth it right now.

 

Hicks, Arcia, Benson, Roberts, Kepler, and Buxton all are better projected players in MLB. Revere is arb eligible in 2014 and won't be expensive at all until at least 2016. So extending . . . why??????????

[Brandon]

Depends on the extension amounts. We can always do the deal with 1 less year with the option. He's not arbitrtion eligible till after next season. so the contract extension now whould shape up something like.....

year one 500,000

year 2 1,000,000

year 3 3,000,000

year 4 6,000,000

Option 8,000,000

 

so i could see a 3 year up to 5 million extension or 4 year 11 with options at the end of each, why not? Its obviously team friendly with the risk Revere regresses but if he maintains then it is a good deal for us and who he eventually gets traded to.

[DaveW]

Depends on the extension amounts. We can always do the deal with 1 less year with the option. He's not arbitrtion eligible till after next season. so the contract extension now whould shape up something like.....

year one 500,000

year 2 1,000,000

year 3 3,000,000

year 4 6,000,000

Option 8,000,000

 

so i could see a 3 year up to 5 million extension or 4 year 11 with options at the end of each, why not? Its obviously team friendly with the risk Revere regresses but if he maintains then it is a good deal for us and who he eventually gets traded to.

The problem is there is a very good chance that by year 4 Revere is not worth 6 mil a year.

 

At the end of the day he is a very good 4th OF, you don't give these guys long term contracts when you don't need to. I'm not sure why people think he suddenly might "break out" or something, 2012 is about as good as its going to get from Revere unless he magically learns how to throw the ball or magically learns how to hit for power.

[Riverbrian]

Michael Bourn hit 9 home runs last year. Before that his previous high was 5 and typically he hit 2 a year.

 

Ben Revere had 553 at bats last year at age 24. Michael Bourn had 127 career total at age 24 and the Phillies were able to acquire their closer by trading Michael Bourn for Brad Lidge after that season.

 

Bourn hit .229 his first full year in the Majors with the Astros. At age 25 which is really two years behind Ben who got MLB at bats at age 23.

 

Bourn is now set to sign for 75 million at age 29.

 

I acknowledge that there are negative comps as well but am not motivated to find them.

 

I do not believe that Revere should be extended at this time but I continue to be amazed by the under valuing of Ben... And from Twins fans to boot.

[Ultima Ratio]

Let's not make another Blackburn contract mistake. Arb years don't have to be bought out... that's a good thing, that's what they are there for.

[The Greatest Poster Alive]

No chance. He needs to prove last season wasn't a fluke and his contact rate is sustainable.

[Willihammer]

The Twins have two outfielders in AA who tore the cover off the ball last season. Both are younger than Revere and better hitters. That's a surplus.

 

Why extend Revere when he's not even arb eligible yet and you have two superior players in the minors? It's an unnecessary risk.

 

The Rangers are at this moment trying to nab Andrelton Simmons from the Braves in order to flip him for J Upton. They already have Andrus and Profar. A surplus is a terrific problem to have when everyone is cheap, any manager or GM will say as much. Because whatever internal logjam might occur, it says nothing about their tradeability or the supply of outfielders in other organizations

[jokin]

The Twins have two outfielders in AA who tore the cover off the ball last season. Both are younger than Revere and better hitters. That's a surplus.

 

Why extend Revere when he's not even arb eligible yet and you have two superior players in the minors? It's an unnecessary risk.

 

The Rangers are at this moment trying to nab Andrelton Simmons from the Braves in order to flip him for J Upton. They already have Andrus and Profar. A surplus is a terrific problem to have when everyone is cheap, any manager or GM will say as much. Because whatever internal logjam might occur, it says nothing about their tradeability or the supply of outfielders in other organizations

 

I'm in total agreement.

The only ones who don't concur are the vast sea of TD keyboard GMs who think they know better.

 

I travel quite a bit, who do you think is one of the most likely players brought up in conversation by the typical casual fan when the subject of the Twins comes up? Simply put, there's two kinds of value that a player can bring to the table, that which wins games (by the numbers) and that which puts fans in the seats and in front of the tube ( by the sizzle). Revere's clearly better at the latter, but that ain't all bad.

[TheLeviathan]

Here's the problem with your argument.....locking Revere into a contract doesn't add or reduce your surplus. It only adds a guaranteed monetary figure to a player with a strong chance of fluctuating production. The Twins will have your surplus either way, you just want to add unnecessary dollar signs to it.

[Kobs]

The Twins need to lock up Butera and Revere for the next decade.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Here's the problem with your argument.....locking Revere into a contract doesn't add or reduce your surplus. It only adds a guaranteed monetary figure to a player with a strong chance of fluctuating production. The Twins will have your surplus either way, you just want to add unnecessary dollar signs to it.

 

Ding ding ding. It's not as if Revere can leave either way. Worst case scenario, Revere falls in his face and is worthless. The Twins wasted a bunch of money. Best case scenario, Revere turns into a .360 OBP speedster with great defense. Twins still control him through at least 2017.

 

I see a whole lot of risk there and very little reward.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Brock, were you for or against extending Span at the time it happened?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Brock, were you for or against extending Span at the time it happened?

 

For it. He showed plate discipline and patience that Revere doesn't have. I like speedy guys if they show a continued ability to get on base. Span had that, Revere doesn't.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

No. Hell no. Play him for another year or two and then flip him.

 

After two years then, who is your outfield, with Revere and Willingham gone?

 

Hicks, Arcia, Benson, Rosario, Roberts, there is so many possibilities....

[diehardtwinsfan]

Brock, were you for or against extending Span at the time it happened?

 

For it. He showed plate discipline and patience that Revere doesn't have. I like speedy guys if they show a continued ability to get on base. Span had that, Revere doesn't.

 

Span also had a small amount of power.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Brock, were you for or against extending Span at the time it happened?

 

For it. He showed plate discipline and patience that Revere doesn't have. I like speedy guys if they show a continued ability to get on base. Span had that, Revere doesn't.

 

Span also had a small amount of power.

 

Yeah, that too. He had discipline and didn't have to rely on the infield hit to get on base. That's a good indicator of continued success in the league because he was never so utterly dependent on using speed and speed alone to be a valuable player.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I can see both sides of the argument.

 

The part that would force me to consider it: Ben Revere is going to go through arbitration four times.

 

He is similar to Michael Bourn (great D, no power, OBP not where you want for a leadoff guy) and Bourn got almost $15.7m in three arbitration years. Going year to year with Revere is going to be more expensive than buying out those years. I think his D and speed would be valuable enough and worth getting cost certainty. For those that think he's a 4th outfielder, obviously it wouldn't be wise.

 

The other thing to think about: Hicks is looking more like a guy that would bat 6th than 1st. Buxton is a middle-of-the-order bat or not worth the bonus he signed and far enough away that Revere and Buxton will probably never play together.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The other thing to think about: Hicks is looking more like a guy that would bat 6th than 1st. Buxton is a middle-of-the-order bat or not worth the bonus he signed and far enough away that Revere and Buxton will probably never play together.

 

I'd still bat Hicks first. I'm not going to complain about leadoff homeruns while his speed and plate discipline make him a natural for leadoff.

 

At worst, move him to second in the lineup. I think his OBP and speed would be a waste toward the back of the order.

[Shane Wahl]

If Revere starts turning in .738, .734, .739 OPS (three out of the last 4 years for Bourn, who is really consistent) then we can start comparing him to Bourn and start worrying about his value. However, IF Revere does that and IF he deservedly sticks around (because the other OF options for Twins fall apart), then who the hell cares about paying him $14 million through his arbitration years (2.5, 4.5, 7) naturally? He will be worth it. If, however, he doesn't top .700 or even regresses in even one of those seasons, then it will have been wise not to extend his contract. The risk is bad.

[Shane Wahl]

The other thing to think about: Hicks is looking more like a guy that would bat 6th than 1st. Buxton is a middle-of-the-order bat or not worth the bonus he signed and far enough away that Revere and Buxton will probably never play together.

 

I'd still bat Hicks first. I'm not going to complain about leadoff homeruns while his speed and plate discipline make him a natural for leadoff.

 

At worst, move him to second in the lineup. I think his OBP and speed would be a waste toward the back of the order.

 

Hicks is definitely the leadoff man of the future.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm in total agreement.

The only ones who don't concur are the vast sea of TD keyboard GMs who think they know better.

 

Or Billy Beane. Or Andrew Frieman. But hey, they're just keyboard GMs.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I'd be really curious to see if someone could find Hicks' batting splits from different parts of the order. It really seemed to me that he struggled early in the season batting leadoff and strived when he was finally moved down in the order, the further the better.

 

Ok, so I guess there's another thing to consider: Is Revere only a 4th outfielder? Is Hicks a future leadoff hitter?

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'd be really curious to see if someone could find Hicks' batting splits from different parts of the order. It really seemed to me that he struggled early in the season batting leadoff and strived when he was finally moved down in the order, the further the better.

 

Ok, so I guess there's another thing to consider: Is Revere only a 4th outfielder? Is Hicks a future leadoff hitter?

 

I'm hesitant to call Revere a 4th outfielder. He's young and could improve significantly.

 

On the other hand, banking $15m on improvement that may not happen sounds pretty foolish to me, especially when the worst case scenario will pay about $20m in arbitration.

[Riverbrian]

If Revere starts turning in .738, .734, .739 OPS (three out of the last 4 years for Bourn, who is really consistent) then we can start comparing him to Bourn and start worrying about his value. However, IF Revere does that and IF he deservedly sticks around (because the other OF options for Twins fall apart), then who the hell cares about paying him $14 million through his arbitration years (2.5, 4.5, 7) naturally? He will be worth it. If, however, he doesn't top .700 or even regresses in even one of those seasons, then it will have been wise not to extend his contract. The risk is bad.

 

I don't really like comparing anyone to anyone but I used Bourn as an example just to point out the potential undervalue taking place with Ben by some.

 

In that sense it's not too soon to compare him to Bourn since Bourn has had more seasons to become(.700 plus OPS) what he became and he didn't get there right away.

 

I don't think it's a stretch to say that Revere has accomplished more than Bourn did at age 24 and we are talking similiar skill sets.

 

I do agree with you that it is simply too soon to lock up Revere and it's exactly because of the reasons that you give. If Revere has a nice 2013... I think you can start to think about it. Just not yet... I like him but I am trying to be reasonable when it comes to future projection. Anything can happen but so far he's been good baseball.

[Shane Wahl]

I'd be really curious to see if someone could find Hicks' batting splits from different parts of the order. It really seemed to me that he struggled early in the season batting leadoff and strived when he was finally moved down in the order, the further the better.

 

Ok, so I guess there's another thing to consider: Is Revere only a 4th outfielder? Is Hicks a future leadoff hitter?

 

Um, I believe it was the opposite. I think they finally moved him to leadoff with Herrmann second and Arcia third after Arcia's promotion. I believe New Britain moved Hicks around 3-5 up until then and he was ok, but much better batting leadoff.