We Should Be More Worried About Jake Odorizzi

[Cody Pirkl]

Jake Odorizzi is slated to miss at least one turn to begin 2020. One of the Twins most effective pitchers in 2019, back troubles are not new to the righty’s career. The hope is that we’ll see Odorizzi take the mound in the second trip through the rotation. While that could be the case, it’s possible the repercussions go beyond a single missed start.Back injuries are tricky when it comes to pitchers. The motion of pitching relies so heavily on bending and twisting of the back, and any kind of pain can easily disrupt these necessary movements. Further complicating things, the physical grind required of a Major League pitcher leaves them little opportunity to rest a back injury during the season and they typically end up pitching through it for better or worse.

 

Odorizzi’s 2017 was a perfect example. Odorizzi admitted to suffering an injury in the weight room in 2017 and struggled with back pain through most of the season. He allowed a career high 1.88 HR/9 and his career worst 5.43 FIP was suppressed by a .227 batting average on balls in play. At season’s end, he worked on stabilizing and strengthening his back and successfully staved off the pain he had suffered through.

 

Odorizzi’s first year as a Twin in 2018 was pain free but not overly impressive while essentially filling a spot in the rotation with a 4.49 ERA. He impressed in flashes but was inconsistent. It was this offseason that he made his change.

 

Odorizzi decided to go all in on improving his mechanics and arsenal by attending the Florida Baseball Ranch. If you’re interested in the work Odorizzi did, it’s outlined on their website. Long story short, two years after a back injury that had seemingly healed, Odorizzi’s mechanics were still disjointed as a result. He made some changes and strengthened his back to avoid relapse and the result was a career year in 2019.

 

 

So now we find ourselves in 2020 where Odorizzi is again suffering from back pain to open the season. Upon his return, the Twins will certainly hope for some semblance of the Jake Odorizzi of 2019. Can we count on that though?

 

2020 has a sense of urgency to it with a 60 game regular season. It’ll be harder to wait until Jake’s back is completely healed to get him back on the mound and we won’t truly know until we see how effective he is. There was a strong correlation to Odorizzi’s effectiveness and his average fastball velocity increase (a career high of 93 MPH in 2019). A step back in this fastball velocity may be an indicator to look for as to what we can expect from Odorizzi moving forward when he returns.

 

Another issue to consider is recurrence of the injury. Odorizzi has already struggled with his back multiple times in his career as we’ve seen, as back injuries commonly pop up repeatedly. He could come back feeling great only to reinjure it two weeks down the line. At 30 years old, the likelihood continues to increase. Take a look at Clayton Kershaw. Two years older than Odorizzi, Kershaw suffered a back injury in 2014 and has continued to struggle with it ever since, also missing opening day in 2020. It’s worth noting that the previous two years, Kershaw’s ages 30 and 31 seasons, his fastball velocity had dropped precipitously. Kershaw has one of the deepest arsenals in baseball to compensate. What happens if Odorizzi see’s a similar trend though?

 

In summation, I’m pretty concerned about Odorizzi’s 2020, and you should be too. While better than an IL trip for a torn UCL or something of that nature, a back injury shouldn’t be discounted for a pitcher with a history of this injury. Odorizzi in particular makes a living with his fastball which would be the first skill to suffer if the back is compromised. So what do you think? Is this a minor issue? Are you concerned for the long(ish) haul of the season for Odorizzi? How has this affected your thoughts on an extension? Let us know below.

 

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[bighat]

Great.

[DocBauer]

In the past, there was a lot of confusion about injured players hanging around and no information and then suddenly being placed on the IL, later than they should have been. I haven't really seen this with the current FO. While they haven't always spilled out tons of information...which is their right...they seem to be protective of their players well being and aggressive with the IL and promotion.

 

At this point, they have said "stiffness". And I will accept that and a missed start, maybe 2 with a couple early off days. If it's more than that, I will absolutely begin to worry. But I give benefit of doubt at this point.

 

The Twins have depth, but I don't want that to be taken for granted. Thorpe has a ton of potential, and Dobnak and Smeltzer both have decent potential. But I'd like them to ease in to reliability through experience and opportunity as much as possible. Same with Duran. But a short season changes said parameters of opportunity if this is something more.

 

In regards to an extension, there are 2 ways to look at one:

 

1] I HOPE NOT, but if this turns out to be chronic related to 2017, Oddo is up against a hard place and will be looking for the best 1yr deal in a post 2020 season he can get. The Twins could still need him and easily bet on him for 2021 While waiting for some of their top arms to arrive. And he's already stated he enjoys pitching for the Twins and working with Johnson.

 

2] Even if he is ready to go with mild stiffness, and the Twins are just being cautious, and he makes 10-11 regular season starts, and we see the 2019 version of him, he is still up against a rock, though a less threatening, less jagged rock.

 

He is a very good #3 SP who can/has pitched like a legitimate #2 most days if you accept 5-6 IP. He was a legitimate All Star in 2019 who was almost as good the 2nd half if you take away July dealing with a finger issue. And he no longer has a draft choice attached to him for 2021. But he's also making just shy of $18M in 2020, though now pro-rated.

 

Even if the 2020 season plays out to completion, including expanded playoffs to make up for financial losses, are teams really going to invest big money for 2021? Especially considering the CBA and questions about 2022? Except for elite talent, I would say no. I think a healthy and productive Odorizzi is looking at a 3yr deal for about $45M. I believe the Twins can not only afford that, but I think he's honest in wanting to stay here. It might also be his best offer.

[Darius]

I’m a little concerned about the whole staff right now. Hitters are supposed to be “behind” according to experts, and we’ve allowed 15 runs (and 6-7 HRs) in two days. Two of the first three starters have already been scratched (Odorizzi and Hill).

 

Not an ideal start to the season. Taking the rubber match in convincing fashion today would ease some concerns.

[mikelink45]

I share your concern - I had two back surgeries in the last year - and even with advanced medicine you never get back to your pre-injury condition.  pitching motion as you look at the delivery puts a tremendous torque on the spine.  Good luck Odorizzi, this is tough. 

 

The Twins depth is already being tested.

[SkyBlueWaters]

Buxton's injury and Sano's issues were both ... a concern. But ultimately we have so many good hitters and neither appear to be major setbacks, so it isn't too disconcerting (yet).

 

But I think you can never have too much quality pitching. Especially guys capable of fronting a rotation. 

 

And if we are deep in premiere hitters, I don't see the same depth in our starting pitching.

 

Last year the Indians were below league average offensively, but their staff ERA was 4th best in all of baseball (including the league that played without the DH!), which was huge for winning 93 games. 

 

Good pitching can keep you in every game.

 

We have a lot of starters, particularly a large number who would benefit from showing durability, giving us good starts day in, day out.

 

I love a no-no, 1-hitter, or shutout as much as the next guy, but I'd forego that flash for a rotation of durable guys who keep us in most games. What's happened with Hill and Odo is far and away the biggest concern in the short season so far.

 

 

[BeatTheRich]

 

Taking the rubber match in convincing fashion today would ease some concerns.

 

Done.

 

For what it's worth, longtime Twins fan Aaron Gleeman simulated the Twins' entire 2020 schedule in Out Of The Park and had the Twins winning the Series without a good year from Odo. Of course, it's only a simulation. But he also had Cruz as Series MVP, and that seems like a pretty sound projection three games in

 

I want to see Bailey and Hill pitch before I begin to worry. I like what Dobnak, Thorpe, and Duran have to offer and like what I saw from Maeda today. Berrios did not look sharp Friday, but it was just one start. Gleeman also had the Twins picking up Corey Kluber at the trade deadline and being a stud down the stretch. Worst case scenario, we look to add someone like him (or him) a month from now. Not cheap, I know, but the window is open. This is our year. (Knock on wood.)

 

Hopefully Odorizzi is OK and it's just a momentary setback. If not, next man up. We have several good young pitchers ready to prove themselves.

[Cody Pirkl]

 

I’m a little concerned about the whole staff right now. Hitters are supposed to be “behind” according to experts, and we’ve allowed 15 runs (and 6-7 HRs) in two days. Two of the first three starters have already been scratched (Odorizzi and Hill).

Not an ideal start to the season. Taking the rubber match in convincing fashion today would ease some concerns

I wouldn't worry a ton about the staff. Berrios was amped up and made some mistakes to some good hitters. Otherwise Littell just didn't have it and Smeltzer wasn't good. Almost everybody else has looked great. Even Dobnak was pretty damn good considering he started game 2 of the season on short notice. I think we'll be just fine!

[ashbury]

I wouldn't worry a ton about the staff. Berrios was amped up and made some mistakes to some good hitters.

You don't find this a worry when the bright lights of post-season shine? They have some good hitters in the post-season. Guys get amped up.

 

[Craig Arko]

Seems pretty likely COVID will render these concerns moot.

[gil4]

 

Gleeman also had the Twins picking up Corey Kluber at the trade deadline and being a stud down the stretch. 

Cancel that plan.  (Shoulder injury)

[Cody Pirkl]

 

You don't find this a worry when the bright lights of post-season shine? They have some good hitters in the post-season. Guys get amped up.
 

Not particularly. I think the kind of anticipation the layoff created is pretty specific to this situation.