Article: Twins trade Denard Span for Nationals' 2011 first round pick

[PseudoSABR]

Meyer’s a bit of a lottery ticket. Legitimate upside, legitimate concerns about his future role, and at least another year of development before he’s ready to contribute in Minnesota. Meyer’s a Top 100 prospect, and if you think he’ll stick as a starter, probably a Top 50 guy. The Twins got a real talent back in return for Span, but it’s a talent with too many question marks to be the piece they’re getting back in return for a three win player under team control at a fraction of his market price.

Fangraphs likes the trade a lot more for the Nats, however.

 

Span for a top 50 prospect seems totally reasonable; I can't imagine the Twins acquiring Meyer if they don't he will start.

[Steve Penz]

Great stuff. This lowered the payroll, acquired a young arm, and made room for younger players while not sacrificing any prospects. There are never guarantees but this looks like a great move.

[DaveW]

This is the kind of trade with which I trust Terry Ryan. Trading an established guy for a lower level minor league guy with some upside. I don't know if Meyer is more than a "C" prospect at this point, and his real test should come when he gets to AA next year, but that may be why he's available.

 

I am disappointed that the Twins didn't get any pitching or middle infielders to help them next year.

 

How could you call Meyer a "C" prospect, the guy hits 98 MPH as a starter and looks to have 3 plus pitches (not to mention size, good minor league results etc)? He was widely considered the 2nd best prospect heading into 2013 of the Nats farm class.

 

Meyer is clearly the best pitching prospect the Twins have and ranks somewhere between Hicks and Arcia but ahead of Rosario and Gibson, you wouldn't call those guys C prospects right??

[jtrinaldi]

Ill go

 

1. Sano

2. Arcia

3. Rosario

4. Buxton

5. Meyer

6. Hicks

7. Gibson

8. Kepler

[Big City]

Wow, surprising it's not a more MLB ready SP like Delgado or Leake, neither of whom I was all that excited about. Good to see we just added our future potential #1. God bless Span, he's a great guy and a really good baseball player and he'll definitely be missed but this was best for all parties. I'm shocked this move didn't happen at the Winter Meetings but maybe TR has something else cooking for Willingham and/or Morneau. Still 3-4 spots left to fill in the rotation, what's going to happen next???

[TwinsFanInPhilly]

Sickels had him as a B in his 2012 book - FWIW

[SirLoin]

This is the kind of trade with which I trust Terry Ryan. Trading an established guy for a lower level minor league guy with some upside. I don't know if Meyer is more than a "C" prospect at this point, and his real test should come when he gets to AA next year, but that may be why he's available.

 

I am disappointed that the Twins didn't get any pitching or middle infielders to help them next year.

 

How could you call Meyer a "C" prospect, the guy hits 98 MPH as a starter and looks to have 3 plus pitches (not to mention size, good minor league results etc)? He was widely considered the 2nd best prospect heading into 2013 of the Nats farm class.

 

Meyer is clearly the best pitching prospect the Twins have and ranks somewhere between Hicks and Arcia but ahead of Rosario and Gibson, you wouldn't call those guys C prospects right??

 

 

Not to get all "Deadspin" on you Dave, but +1. How is a team's #2/#3 prospect be considered a "C" prospect???

[DaveW]

Meyer’s a bit of a lottery ticket. Legitimate upside, legitimate concerns about his future role, and at least another year of development before he’s ready to contribute in Minnesota. Meyer’s a Top 100 prospect, and if you think he’ll stick as a starter, probably a Top 50 guy. The Twins got a real talent back in return for Span, but it’s a talent with too many question marks to be the piece they’re getting back in return for a three win player under team control at a fraction of his market price.

Fangraphs likes the trade a lot more for the Nats, however.

 

Span for a top 50 prospect seems totally reasonable; I can't imagine the Twins acquiring Meyer if they don't he will start.

That's because Cameron is strictly a numbers guy (unless it comes to his beloved Mariners of course)

 

Yes, Span had a very impressive WAR that was bolstered by a very strong UZR. But lets be honest, Span benefited a TON in 2011 and 2012 from having Revere in the OF as well. Notice how his UZR in CF doubled from 2010 to 2011/2012?

 

This isn't saying Span isn't a good CF, just that he isn't as great as the defensive metrics would lead you to believe. The Twins did the right thing in this case by trading him while his value was high, as much as I like Span he did have his warts, injury issues for one, and in both 2010 and 2011 he failed to reach a .690 OPS.

 

I think its a very fair trade, and if Meyer can reach his potential or anything close it ends up a win for the Twins since:

 

1. They have a stop gap CF in Revere.

2. They have a couple stud CF's who should be ready within a year or two.

[AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS]

Wow, surprising it's not a more MLB ready SP like Delgado or Leake, neither of whom I was all that excited about. Good to see we just added our future potential #1.

 

Is Meyer projected as a potential number 1?

[SirLoin]

I think Bonnes has been spending too much time with Cory Cove....a "C" prospect???

[John Bonnes]

 

How could you call Meyer a "C" prospect, the guy hits 98 MPH as a starter and looks to have 3 plus pitches (not to mention size, good minor league results etc)? He was widely considered the 2nd best prospect heading into 2013 of the Nats farm class.

 

Meyer is clearly the best pitching prospect the Twins have and ranks somewhere between Hicks and Arcia but ahead of Rosario and Gibson, you wouldn't call those guys C prospects right??

 

Entering the 2012 season, BP ranked him 5th overall among the Nationals prospect, giving him 3 stars, which is a C prospect. BA ranked him 6th overall. And I don't see a lot in his numbers last year to have changed that opinion of him. I won't dicker between calling him a C+ or a B-, and I hope he's a C prospect with some upside, but a K/9 or 9 in High-A isn't exactly other-worldly stuff, no matter what his velocity.

 

I don't know that I would rank him in the same area you would. I'm also far from sure he'll be a top 50 prospect, or even top 100. But I'll admit, I'm far from an expert on the status of minor leaguers.

[DaveW]

Sickels had him as a B in his 2012 book - FWIW

Yup, and that was prior to a very strong 2012 season with a 9.7 k rate, 1.101 WHIP and 2.86 ERA.

 

He is a B/borderline B+ prospect at this point who has some nice upside.

[Anorthagen]

I am sad about seeing span go, but I knew it was for the good of the team. It also lowered the payroll, which was good. But I really think Ryan should have tried to get somebody who is ready or already in the big leagues, instead of a guy who can't help us till 2014.

[gunnarthor]

I like Meyer as the centerpiece although I wish we could have gotten one more player back.

 

I don't think it'll hurt the club that much going from a Willingham/Span/Revere outfield to a Willingham/Revere/Parmelee outfield. We lose some OBP but, hopefully, Parmelee or Plouffe (or Hicks/Arcia) can develop some pop.

[luke829]

I just have to wonder what Bill Smith would've done in this type of situation (shudders)

[DaveW]

 

How could you call Meyer a "C" prospect, the guy hits 98 MPH as a starter and looks to have 3 plus pitches (not to mention size, good minor league results etc)? He was widely considered the 2nd best prospect heading into 2013 of the Nats farm class.

 

Meyer is clearly the best pitching prospect the Twins have and ranks somewhere between Hicks and Arcia but ahead of Rosario and Gibson, you wouldn't call those guys C prospects right??

 

Entering the 2012 season, BP ranked him 5th overall among the Nationals prospect, giving him 3 stars, which is a C prospect. BA ranked him 6th overall. And I don't see a lot in his numbers last year to have changed that opinion of him. I won't dicker between calling him a C+ or a B-, and I hope he's a C prospect with some upside, but a K/9 or 9 in High-A isn't exactly other-worldly stuff, no matter what his velocity.

 

I don't know that I would rank him in the same area you would. I'm also far from sure he'll be a top 50 prospect, or even top 100. But I'll admit, I'm far from an expert on the status of minor leaguers.

 

You realize that prior to 2012 he had exactly 0 pitches thrown for a major league organization right? How is "nothing he did" in 2012 worthy of ranking him higher? He had a very successful 2012 IMO and it isn't all about k rate (even though a 9.7 k/9 is in fact pretty good, especially when he has a respectable BB rate, a great WHIP and a solid GB rate of about 55%)

 

I'm not trying to start an argument or anything, I just think his 2012 bumps his value up quite a bit.

[mikeee]

 

How could you call Meyer a "C" prospect, the guy hits 98 MPH as a starter and looks to have 3 plus pitches (not to mention size, good minor league results etc)? He was widely considered the 2nd best prospect heading into 2013 of the Nats farm class.

 

Meyer is clearly the best pitching prospect the Twins have and ranks somewhere between Hicks and Arcia but ahead of Rosario and Gibson, you wouldn't call those guys C prospects right??

 

Entering the 2012 season, BP ranked him 5th overall among the Nationals prospect, giving him 3 stars, which is a C prospect. BA ranked him 6th overall. And I don't see a lot in his numbers last year to have changed that opinion of him. I won't dicker between calling him a C+ or a B-, and I hope he's a C prospect with some upside, but a K/9 or 9 in High-A isn't exactly other-worldly stuff, no matter what his velocity.

 

I don't know that I would rank him in the same area you would. I'm also far from sure he'll be a top 50 prospect, or even top 100. But I'll admit, I'm far from an expert on the status of minor leaguers.

 

Jim Hoey threw the ball hard too.

[minn55441]

I am sad about seeing span go, but I knew it was for the good of the team. It also lowered the payroll, which was good. But I really think Ryan should have tried to get somebody who is ready or already in the big leagues, instead of a guy who can't help us till 2014.

 

I'm reading into this, that TR really liked this guy. I think this really is a big hit to our 2013 lineup. We now have a below average Def outfield with both Parmelee and Willingham playing everyday. I also think Span was a much better lead off guy than Ben will ever be.

 

Again, TR must really be high on this guy to give up span and know we are in for a rocky 2013 on the field.

[DaveW]

I am sad about seeing span go, but I knew it was for the good of the team. It also lowered the payroll, which was good. But I really think Ryan should have tried to get somebody who is ready or already in the big leagues, instead of a guy who can't help us till 2014.

The problem with getting a guy who is ready/already in the big leagues is:

1. That player may not have a lot of team control left.

2. That player probably doesn't have nearly as high of a ceiling as Meyer does.

 

Chances are you would have to settle for an average #3/#4 with only a couple years of team control left. The Braves weren't going to give up a guy like Minor no matter how much some of us wanted to pray/believe.

 

Meyer while not ready now, shouldn't take to much more seasoning to be ready. 2014 is only a year away after all

[mudcat14]

I'm really quite surprised that this is a one for one deal. Granted Meyer has oustanding upside, but also a high potential for failure having not pitched above the 'A' level. I would have expected another piece to come the Twins way in a deal like this. At least it should free up some cash to help add a short-term solution or two in the starting rotation.

[DaveW]

Jim Hoey threw the ball hard too.

Derp.

[John Bonnes]

You realize that prior to 2012 he had exactly 0 pitches thrown for a major league organization right? How is "nothing he did" in 2012 worthy of ranking him higher? He had a very successful 2012 IMO and it isn't all about k rate (even though a 9.7 k/9 is in fact pretty good, especially when he has a respectable BB rate, a great WHIP and a solid GB rate of about 55%)

 

I'm not trying to start an argument or anything, I just think his 2012 bumps his value up quite a bit.

 

In my mind, a 22-year-old college pitcher SHOULD dominate Low A, and probably should dominate High A. He certainly didn't do the latter, with a K rate in the 7s, albeit in 39 innings. Now, maybe he was tired or something, I don't know. I'm not saying he hurt his value. I just don't think he necessarily helped it.

[TheLeviathan]

Alex Myers the name James Shields gives himself when he wears his high heels? Otherwise, reality strikes again. In a good way I might add - a solid prospect that slots to be coming to the majors about the same time as our best young talent? Sounds like the right kind of trade to me. Now to see if it pans out.

[StormJH1]

I like this deal. I was trying to lower expectations earlier this morning about what we could actually fetch in a trade for Span, and this as good as we could have realistically hoped for in a prospect. Plus, he's absolutely huge, throws hard, and his control is not that bad. I understand that he's 22 and was pitching in two levels in A-ball, but he pitched well at both levels. The Nationals have a decent organization, and it wasn't Meyer's choice not to get a call up. Danny Hultzen was considered close to MLB-ready, but the Mariners kept him in AA ball for most of the year, and he's a little older.

 

I think the bigger thing though is that this guy gives us a chip and a chair at a frontline starter, and the loss of Span really does not harm the team's future plans too much. Span was a likable guy and a good ballplayer, but he had other limitations, and we're lucky that he was even tradable given his prior concussion issues (and other little injuries).

[DaveW]

You realize that prior to 2012 he had exactly 0 pitches thrown for a major league organization right? How is "nothing he did" in 2012 worthy of ranking him higher? He had a very successful 2012 IMO and it isn't all about k rate (even though a 9.7 k/9 is in fact pretty good, especially when he has a respectable BB rate, a great WHIP and a solid GB rate of about 55%)

 

I'm not trying to start an argument or anything, I just think his 2012 bumps his value up quite a bit.

 

In my mind, a 22-year-old college pitcher SHOULD dominate Low A, and probably should dominate High A. He certainly didn't do the latter, with a K rate in the 7s, albeit in 39 innings. Now, maybe he was tired or something, I don't know. I'm not saying he hurt his value. I just don't think he necessarily helped it.

 

If we are going to play the short sample size game in 39 IP in high A, he did also have a 1.026 WHIP and a 2.31. I guess that might not meet your definition of "dominate" but most would say that a 2.31 ERA and 1.026 WHIP are pretty damn good.

 

It almost sounds like you are looking for a reason to not like this trade so people can continue the bashing on Terry Ryan.

[Boom Boom]

I'm really quite surprised that this is a one for one deal. Granted Meyer has oustanding upside, but also a high potential for failure having not pitched above the 'A' level. I would have expected another piece to come the Twins way in a deal like this. At least it should free up some cash to help add a short-term solution or two in the starting rotation.

 

This is my thought as well. Getting one pitcher for Span, one who's probably 2 years away at least, seems to be a bigger gamble than I'd like. I might have taken a lower-ceiling pitcher who was closer to the majors and maybe a fringy infielder thrown in. So it seems that either TR and his scouts really like Meyer, or there just wasn't that much trade interest in Span.

[DaveW]

Alex Myers the name James Shields gives himself when he wears his high heels? Otherwise, reality strikes again. In a good way I might add - a solid prospect that slots to be coming to the majors about the same time as our best young talent? Sounds like the right kind of trade to me. Now to see if it pans out.

 

I don't think anyone is claiming Myers is some sorta of sure deal, but he is certainly the best pitching prospect the Twins have had since Matt Garza. (Gibson could be close if it weren't for the injury)

 

When was the last time the Twins had a guy in the system who could throw 98 AND get it over the plate?

[Highabove]

Nat's fans must be delighted today.

[Mike Sixel]

Hard to say, but a low A guy not a big name prospect seems like a low return for an everyday starting center fielder. I will have to do some research before forming an opinion. This does lower the payroll...maybe they will spend some money on a pitcher now.....I would like to see Hicks up, and not have to watch Parmalee field.

[gunnarthor]

One other thing to keep in mind was that, after coming back from injury, Span had a .300 OBP to end the year. It was a small sample size but maybe the Twins were concerned with his injuries and just decided to move before rumors started going out.