Central Intelligence 2.0: Cleveland Indians

[Nick Nelson]

The Cleveland Indians reigned over the AL Central for three straight years before the Twins came and took it from them in 2019. Now Cleveland is looking to reclaim the throne. They've got plenty of firepower to challenge for the title, even if GM Mike Chernoff's offseason (unlike Minnesota's) wasn't entirely reflective of an all-in contender.

CLEVELAND INDIANS AT A GLANCE

2019 Record: 93-69, 2nd Place

2019 fWAR Leader (Offense): Francisco Lindor - 4.4

2019 fWAR Leader (Pitching): Shane Bieber, RHP - 5.6

 

Key Offseason Additions: Cesar Hernandez (2B), Delino DeShields Jr. (OF), Domingo Santana (OF), Emmanuel Clase (RP)

Key Offseason Losses: Jason Kipnis (2B), Corey Kluber (SP), Nick Goody (RP), Tyler Clippard (RP)

 

2020 Over/Under: 32.5 Wins

 

 

TEAM OVERVIEW

The Indians traded away Trevor Bauer at the 2019 deadline and then dealt Corey Kluber after the season, subtracting two premier right-handed power pitchers from their routinely outstanding rotation mix. Of course, with Kluber missing almost all of last year and Bauer unspectacular before the trade, Cleveland still allowed the third-fewest runs in the league. Clearly neither hurler was essential to the team's success – albeit a level of success that left them on the outside looking in when the postseason came around.

 

This year, the Indians need to show they can keep churning out stellar pitching performances from their remaining group while also trying to do enough offensively to keep pace with the high-flying division favorites.

 

STRENGTHS

The combination of Mike Clevinger and Shane Bieber atop the rotation is beyond formidable. No two ways about it. Bieber ranked fifth among AL starters in fWAR last year, and the only reason Clevinger wasn't right up there with him is because he missed most of the first half with a back strain.

 

Upon returning from his injury in late June, Clevinger pitched as well as he ever has, posting a 2.71 ERA and 12.1 K/9 ratio in 126 frames. Among AL starters who threw 100 or more innings, only Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander had a better ERA. Those two along with Chris Sale and Blake Snell were the only ones with a higher K-rate. Having his name mentioned alongside these ones tells you all you need to know: Clevinger is Cy Young caliber. And while the Twins get to avoid all those other aces in the regular season, they'll see Clevinger multiple times. He's going to give their lineup fits – last year he held the historically explosive Minnesota offense to seven total runs over four starts – and he's gonna shred inferior clubs like KC and Detroit to pieces. Same goes for Bieber, though it's fair to wonder if he can back up the brilliance of his breakout campaign.

 

Even with Bauer and Kluber gone, Cleveland has plenty of starting depth behind Clevinger and Bieber, because they're simply a pitching development powerhouse. Zach Plesac, Aaron Civale, and Adam Plutko all showed positive signs last year, and veteran Carlos Carrasco is seemingly back at full strength after a scary run-in with leukemia. The bullpen should still be an asset.

 

Offensively, the Indians feature a pair of perennial MVP candidates in Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez. First baseman Carlos Santana is tremendous, quietly coming off a career year. And as a result of last summer's Bauer trade, Cleveland has a 25-year-old slugger with monstrous power potential at DH in Franmil Reyes.

 

WEAKNESSES

Even with those quality pieces in place, Cleveland's offense is suspect. They don't have a bad lineup per se, it just doesn't stack up against the league's premier units. Last year the Indians scored 170 fewer runs than the Twins; put another way, they scored almost 20% fewer runs than the Twins.

 

While the Cleveland infield is undeniably excellent – manned by Ramirez, Lindor, Santana, and newly acquired second baseman Cesar Hernandez – the outfield could be pretty bad. Expected starters are Oscar Mercado, Tyler Naquin, and Domingo Santana or Delino DeShields. All posted a sub-800 OPS last year. At DH, Reyes' big upside remains more theoretical than proven at this point.

 

Even if their stars shine on offense, Cleveland will need to ride the pitching staff to a division championship. And while there's little reason to doubt their rotation, the once-overpowering bullpen could easily take a step backward. Chaska native Brad Hand remains the steady ... hand ... at closer, and he's been in three straight All-Star Games, but his 5.40 ERA after the break last year was ominous. It seemingly contributed to Chernoff targeting Emmanuel Clase – a fireballing 22-year-old prize acquired in the Kluber trade – as Hand's eventual replacement in the ninth. But Clase won't play a role for Cleveland in 2020, after being hit with an 80-game PED suspension.

 

Tyler Clippard has joined the enemy. Nick Goody and Dan Otero are among other former fixtures now departed, and while Oliver Perez is back, he turns 39 next month. For relief innings, Cleveland will be leaning on the likes of Nick Wittgren, Adam Cimber, Hunter Wood, and James Hoyt. Not exactly your established household names.

 

WILD CARD

I'm tempted to go with James Karinchak. He's one of the better pure relief pitching prospects in the game, having racked up 82 strikeouts in 37 2/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. You read that right. Karinchak has averaged 16.4 K/9 in three minor-league seasons. Just silly.

 

But the Indians are likely going to be good at preventing runs with or without him. That's not really in question. So I'll venture a little further off the beaten path with my pick for Cleveland's biggest X factor: Bradley Zimmer.

 

The former first-round draft pick has struggled to find his footing in the major leagues, to say the least. Last year represents the depth of his despair: He missed nearly the entire campaign due to injury, and went 0-for-13 in his extremely brief time with Cleveland, finishing his age-26 season with a .071 OPS. In total he's got a .230/.293/.359 slash line through 460 plate appearances in parts of three MLB seasons.

 

But make no mistake: Zimmer is a talent. He was the 21st overall draft pick out of college in 2014, and was rated by MLB.com as the game's 19th-best prospect when first called up in 2017. It's been a tough go for the outfielder thus far, but he's still only 27, and by now Twins fans know better than to count out a heralded young player who is set back by early struggles and injuries in the big leagues.

 

He doesn't figure to be a regular for Cleveland out of the gates, but if Zimmer catches on and turns the corner, he could provide a critical boost for the Cleveland offense. In starting to make his case, Zimmer homered twice off Clevinger in an intrasquad match last week.

 

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[Danchat]

Hmmmm... I have a feeling Cleveland is going to disappoint this year. I don't think they will have enough offense - their outfield is not good, Reyes was a subpar DH for them, and they'll have to hope Jose Ramirez doesn't slump again. Plesac and Plutko could regress as they outperformed their FIP last year, and the bullpen isn't all that special, and their one big upgrade, Clase, has been suspended.

 

You know what? I'll do it. I'm predicting the Indians finish the season below .500.

[mikelink45]

Cleveland pitchers insure a quality season and I see them beating out the White Sox for second place.  It is really dangerous to write off a team that has been dominant in the division for so long.  

 

You did not mention Terry Francona - he is the X factor - a really good manager for a long time.

[Doctor Gast]

I`m still scared of CLE, I wouldn`t under estimate them. Their pitching could neutralize our hitting, it boils down to our superior OF defense beats their superior INF defense. In the beginning of last year they had some key injuries & we were red hot which created too big of a hole they couldn`t overcome 

[Trov]

If I recall correctly, Cleveland normally starts of slow, and does well later in season.  If they start off slow this time it will be an issue for them, but maybe they start off slow because of weather, so that will not be an issue, not sure.  

 

I believe Cleveland will go as far as Ramirez will go.  He is the main person in their line up that when he is hot, they do well, when not they fall.  Their lineup can have no slumps from anyone because they have no offensive depth.  

[TFRazor]

My prediction is that Lindor is gone next offseason. If they struggle coming out of the gate and they're done early, they'd be crazy not to move him during the year when demand is higher. Cleveland is very much on the downslope.

[blindeke]

 

I`m still scared of CLE, I wouldn`t under estimate them. Their pitching could neutralize our hitting, it boils down to our superior OF defense beats their superior INF defense. In the beginning of last year they had some key injuries & we were red hot which created too big of a hole they couldn`t overcome 

 

Our infield D should be better this year with Donaldson.

[DocBauer]

I don't buy in to the Dirty Sox just yet. They made some good additions and have some young talent on hand and some just about ready to make their mark. But I just think they need too much to go right at the same time to challenge this season.

 

Cleveland is still dangerous. You have to give them the advantage in SP, even though though the Twins have quality and depth. I also like the Twins BP and depth over the Indians. We can debate INF vs OF but it's a balancing act. I'd pick the Twins overall, including DH.

 

In the whole of AL/NL Central, the Twins and Indians should be the top 2 teams. I still don't feel the whole "Central" battle is quite the cake walk some make it out to be as there are 4 teams in the NL that could be 30+ win teams, plus Cleveland and the CDS to contend with. But Cleveland is the only team that really worries me.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]