Should Luis Arraez Bat Leadoff?

[twins1095]

 

Yes, the object is to get as many pitches see. Plus he can work a count and also get on base. I would bat Kepler 5th. I would bat Polanco second and Donaldson third.

 

I haven't read a lot of lineups yet, but here's mine:

 

I think I would go Arraez/Donaldson 1-2 given that Arraez seems to be proving that he wasn't a 1-year wonder. 

 

Arraez and Donaldson are the Twins best on-base players. Donaldson walked over 100 times last year. I want them up as many time as possible, especially in front of Cruz/Kepler/Sano/Rosario who can/will drive them in. 

 

I would go Cruz 3rd, again because he gets on base as much or more than both Arraez and Donaldson... but also because you put the Twins 2 best OBP guys in front of Cruz and maximize the number of ABs that Cruz gets in a given game. 

 

4th, you probably need a left-handed hitter. This means Polanco/Kepler/Rosario. I think I'd probably go Kepler/Polanco/Garver/Sano/Rosario/Buxton to finish out the lineup. 

 

I think of that group of 4 as another mini 1-4 lineup. Polanco is your second best "prototypical" leadoff hitter in terms of his ability to consistently make contact and get on base in that fashion. Garver actually gets on base more than Polanco... he's also extremely productive on a per AB basis.

 

This maximizes the number of times runners are on after you turn over that first 4 for Sano & Rosario. I generally think that Sano is a more dangerous hitter than Rosario because he gets on base more and has more power. Lastly, because Polanco/Garver/Sano all get on base at a .350+ clip...you maximize baserunners for Rosario.

 

Basically, you're putting 2 guys with a .380-.400 OBP on for Cruz... 3 guys with a .380-.400 OBP guy for Kepler... maximizing the ABs of your 2 best hitters Donaldson/Cruz... and then doing the same with Sano/Rosario.

 

Buxton, then, is the x-factor. In the 9-spot, with Arraez at leadoff... you get to pair up Buxton and Arraez to play a little 2-man game with Arraez's contact skills and ability to put the ball in play and in gaps and Buxton's speed. Tons of fun.

 

1-Arraez

2-Donaldson

3-Cruz

4-Kepler

5-Polanco

6-Garver

7-Sano (I am fine switching Garver and Sano up here)

8-Rosario

9-Buxton

 

Edit - It's actually pretty funny because looking at it that way, 1-4 & 5-8 are pretty similar. Arraez is a similar player to Polanco, but he's got better OBP skills with less power. Garver & Donaldson are pretty similar in terms of their playstyle with a lot of patience and big time power. Sano is basically a poor man's Nelson Cruz. Rosario is a poor man's Kepler in a lot of ways. 

[jud6312]

I always want the fastest baserunner hitting directly in front of the best OBP guys as many times as possible - wherever that is in the lineup.

 

In the Twins' case, every time Buxton gets on base Arraez is up behind him. That, assuming he can get on base, provides a good chance to move him into scoring position for the top of the lineup. (And is there any Arraez double he couldn't score on?) If he doesn't get on, then you still have a chance of Arraez being on base before turning it over to Kepler. 

 

It's a good problem to have.

 

The caveat to this, of course, is that Arraez adjusts to the league's adjustments to him faster than they can adjust to his readjustments.

 

I've seen nothing so far that makes me think that can't or won't happen, but it's always good to remember he's still young and only has about 2/3 of a full season under his belt.