Should Luis Arraez Bat Leadoff?

[Tom Froemming]

The Bomba Squad is going to have one of the best lineups in baseball no matter how they're ordered, but I wonder if putting Arraez at the top may put an unnecessary amount of pressure on him.

 

 

Where would you put Luis Arraez in the lineup?

[terrydactyls]

He should lead off. He can make the opposing pitcher work right from the start. My only problem I had last year with Kepler leading off was the frequency of one pitch/one out. That's not ideal for a leadoff hitter.

[rdehring]

If it were my decision, would want him leading off. With that said, I doubt he will be there. Have a feeling it will be Kepler versus righties and I don't know who versus lefties. With Donaldson/Cruz at #2 and #3, who will be the left handed hitter batting cleanup. Don't be surprised if it Rosario, although could also be Polanco. Seriously doubt he will have three righties in a row.

[nicksaviking]

With so many other strong OBP guys that also pile up XBH as options, I think I put Arraez down at the #8 spot and let him and Buxton form a 2nd, more traditional "top of the lineup" combo.

[TouchEmAllGuy]

In a "traditional" lineup, yes, Arraez should be leadoff. He's perfect for it. However, Kepler worked so well out of the leadoff last year, I leave Kep there. I would prefer Kep gets more at bats than Arraez. Bomba City!

[Number3]

Arraez should definitely hit lead off this year in the 60 practice games he will have to get used to hitting lead off. Does anyone really care where their team finishes in the standings this year? I mean really? I am sure that the players have been coached repeatedly on what to say when asked if these games really mean anything to them. If you caught most of them in an off the record situation like at the next stool having a cold one (not) you would get the truth.Noise from video games in the stadiums? Blue Jays just trying to find a place to play? Go Twins.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

No wrong answers here, but Arraez was so good at getting on base last year that I wouldn’t have a problem with him at leadoff. His team-best Obp in 2019 indicates he could be the best one to extend innings late.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I do agree with Tom F that Polanco would be a good option at leadoff too, but I don’t see Arraez buckling under pressure. That was an epic PH at bat, for sure. He also rose pretty fast to the majors, no pressure there. And he takes some really intense at bats. I’m putting my chips on lead off!

[Tom Froemming]

 

Arraez should definitely hit lead off this year in the 60 practice games he will have to get used to hitting lead off. Does anyone really care where their team finishes in the standings this year? I mean really? I am sure that the players have been coached repeatedly on what to say when asked if these games really mean anything to them. If you caught most of them in an off the record situation like at the next stool having a cold one (not) you would get the truth.Noise from video games in the stadiums? Blue Jays just trying to find a place to play? Go Twins.

 

I think professional athletes are some of the most competitive people in the world, and they'd probably want to win a backyard wiffle ball game against their own children, lol. It's going to be weird, but it's still the best baseball players in the world competing against one another.

 

From a fan's perspective, this year will be viewed differently, but I still care and want to see the Twins win it all.

[Shaitan]

 

The Bomba Squad is going to have one of the best lineups in baseball no matter how they're ordered, but I wonder if putting Arraez at the top may put an unnecessary amount of pressure on him.

 

 

Where would you put Luis Arraez in the lineup?

Considering how well he hit in the playoffs, I think he can handle the pressure.

 

 

Personally I like more speed at the top. But I don't think it matters -- I think Baldelli will rotate the lineup day-to-day.

 

I'm fine with him batting 1st in the majority of games.

 

 

[Craig Arko]

He seems like a natural leadoff hitter, and didn't seem especially bothered by pressure last year.

[rationalfan]

The latest batting order analysis is that the two best hitters should be in the #1 and #4 spots.  If you have a clear #1 then he goes at the top.  The Twins have depth with 9 hitters at 0.800 OPS or higher.  With similar production, the player with higher OBP goes leadoff and the higher SLG goes cleanup.  This makes it pretty clear that Arraez (0.399/0.439/0.838) should be leadoff and Kepler (0.336, 0.519/0.855) cleanup...if those were the only two options...and if you just go by those stats.  

 

I like using the Runs Above Average contribution to bWAR which doesn't include position (because it has no influence on a batting order) and I ignore the Grounding into Double Play part because for most players, especially if they played a half season like Arraez, is pretty random.  I also want to adjust for 700 plate appearances which is what Polanco got last year since for a batting order I don't care much about how often the player is in the lineup but rather how he contributes when is playing.  I'll follow the latest batting order guidance continuing the above with third best hitter at #2, fourth best at #5, 5th best at #3, and then going in order down from #6 to #9 with breaking virtual ties with slugging higher (to drive in runs) and on-base or baserunning lower to set the table for the top when batting around.  Here's the order with stats (OBP/SLG/OPS...Rbat,adj/Rbaser,adj/oRAAadj) and I consider oRAAadj within 5 (which is about 0.5 WAR) to be equivalent:

 

1. Garver (0.365/0.630/0.995...55/-4/51)

2. Sano (0.346/0.576/0.923...38/-5/33)

3. Polanco (0.356/0.485/0.841...22/4/26)

4. Cruz (0.392/0.639/1.031...55/-4/51)

5. Donaldson (0.379/0.521/0.900...28/-1/27)

6. Kepler (0.336/0.519/0.855...20/-5/15)

7. Arraez (0.399/0.439/0.838...19/-2/17)

8. Buxton (0.314/0.513/0.827...12/7/19)

9. Rosario (0.300/0.500/0.800...4/4/7)

 

When Garver sits then Cruz goes to #1, Sano goes to #4 and everyone else moves up one spot with Avila (0.353/0.421/0.774...-3/0/-3) at the bottom.

 

When Cruz takes a day off Sano again goes to #4, everyone except Rosario moves up a spot, and Cave (0.351/0.455/0.805...12/0/12) goes into the 8 spot.  When Adrianza (0.349/0.416/0.765...9/0/9) plays, he would be in the 7-9 area depending on the lineup of the day.  

 

Gonzo would be a last choice based on the stats (0.322/0.414/0.736...-9/-3/-12).

 

Of course, this is a purely advanced statistical way of doing things, which I included because I love stats and I don't think anyone else in this thread will go this way (with the stats put in for you to play around with and make your own batting order!).  Some don't like/don't trust the advance stats.  Some believe in a consistent order (that hitters do better when they're more comfortable and therefore also hitting in the same part of the lineup).  Some believe in putting veterans in the pressure spots.  Some believe alternating righties and lefties is more important than anything else (this order has only one player who can bat lefty in the top 5 spots).  There is also the ego to consider in the real world (would Rosario pout or demand a trade if he was put at the #9 spot?).

 

One more thing: I didn't use projections.  For those of us fantasy owners, we know we use stats based on how we THINK players will do not what they've necessarily done in the PAST.  I doubt Garver will put up numbers again from 2019, but if you think advanced stats are controversial, just watch when projections (Steamer, ZIPS, etc.) are used.

[Paul]

 

I think professional athletes are some of the most competitive people in the world, and they'd probably want to win a backyard wiffle ball game against their own children, lol. It's going to be weird, but it's still the best baseball players in the world competing against one another.

 

I played on a slow pitch softball team with Bret Saberhagen's AAA roommate.  I was the SS.  I was a terrible pitcher.  At the end of a game we were comfortably ahead and the coach pulled him and moved me to pitcher.  I was just f-ing with him and said  "Don't worry, I'll close this out for you."  He got visibly pissed.  He was upset he wasn't going to get a complete game.

 

[bighat]

Nah.

 

Despite being constantly overlooked by TD members, Jorge Polanco is an elite bat and we should get him as many ABs as possible. I'm guessing Baldelli knows that.

 

Arraez is a great backup leadoff hitter if anything happens to Jorge. Right now I think you bat him 8th, Buxton 9th.

[mikelink45]

Yes - I like HRs that count for more than one run

 

[bobs]

 The depth and quality of options at the top of the order illustrate the depth of the lineup.  Kepler, Arraez, Polanco all could excel in the top 2 spots.  If Kepler leads off and Donaldson hits 2nd, that means Polanco and Arraez likely slide to 7/8 holes??  In front of Buxton.  Wow, what a lineup.

[Trov]

I would lead him off, but times are a changing and not sure if he will.  In terms of the 1 pitch at bat of Kepler, in traditional thinking that is bad, we are no longer in the traditional thinking world of baseball.  There is some credence of the benefit of hitting that HR to get out to quick start.  I also like the long first at bats as well.  I do not get paid to make the call, but I sure the Twins will do their homework on this issue. 

[Rosterman]

Yes!

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Yes. Something no one has mentioned is that he will hit behind Buck, after the first time through the order, which will give Buck plenty of pitches to steal 2B and 3B. 

[Puckett34]

I say he needs to either bat 1st or 9th. Behind Buxton either way is ideal in my book. I will die on this hill. lol

 

This lineup is so stupidly deep that I don't think it really matter what order they're in, generally speaking.

[howeda7]

Yes and Yes.

[howeda7]

Arraez

Polanco

Donaldson

Cruz

Kepler

Sano

Rosario

Garver

Buxton

[Doctor Gast]

I think he`s made to lead off & thrives on that challenge. Maybe he should be given the chance to lead until it becomes apparent that he shouldn`t or maybe he needs to grow into it. To me sooner or later he`ll be lead off but Baldelli knows better than I do

[Thegrin]

Sophomore jinx! Remember the sophomore jinx? It exists for a reason. Pressure!  This, being a short season means more pressure.  Therefore no.  No. NO! Do not bat Arraez first. Let him bat 8th.  With the Twins current lineup, it won't make much difference.  No pressure at #8.  Give Arraez 30 games to reassure himself that he belongs.  Then bat him first if it STILL seems to be advantageous.  But, to start, DO NOT BAT ARRAEZ FIRST!

[TopGunn#22]

I'm 100% in the camp that Arraez should hit leadoff.  Yes, he's not the fastest, but remember the Big Red Machine lineups of the 70's.  Pete Rose wasn't faster than Joe Morgen, Bobby Tolan or Caesar Geronimo, but he hit leadoff (even though Morgen was an on-base machine as well and a far superior stolen base threat).  My Twins Lineup:

 

1.  Arraez    He's an on-base machine.  A tremendous table setter.

2.  Donaldson    Also great on-base to go with power.  Still above average speed.

3.  Cruz    I'm a believer in your BEST hitter hitting #3.  Cruz is our BEST.

4.  Kepler    Time for some LH power.  Kepler keeps improving.  Give him a chance to drive in 100+

5.  Polanco    This is a more traditional spot for power, but Polanco is a very good hitter and gives us switch hit ability.  He's kind of the glue to hold the entire lineup together.

6.   Sano    This is a traditional power spot and Sano is starting to show signs of being a monster.

7.   Rosario   At times I've had Eddie 8th, but I think #7 fits for him.  Gives us a LH power bat behind Sano

8.   Garver   ridiculously low for Garve-Sauce, I know.  I expect him to be close to what he did last year but Garver hitting 8th lets us plug Avila into the 8-hole when Mitch takes a break.

9.   Buxton    Ever since he arrived in the big leagues I've wanted Buck to hit leadoff.  Arraez is just better suited, and Buck in the 9-hole as has been stated before, with Arraez behind him gives Buck a chance to RUN.   A LOT more than he has so far in his career.  Straight steals and hit-and-run action with Buxton and Arraez is exciting baseball.

 

That's my lineup.  Guys like Kiriloff, Lewis, Larnach and Rooker could make this exercise even MORE interesting.

[Number3]

 

I think professional athletes are some of the most competitive people in the world, and they'd probably want to win a backyard wiffle ball game against their own children, lol. It's going to be weird, but it's still the best baseball players in the world competing against one another.

 

From a fan's perspective, this year will be viewed differently, but I still care and want to see the Twins win it all.

I think they would rather win the back yard Wiffle Ball game than one of these 60 TV exhibition games.

The "standings" will show a bunch of .500 +/- teams and resemble Grapefruit lineups for the most part. Maybe even some split squad games if they fall behind in the schedule.

[jorgenswest]

I think it is more important that the Twins spread out Rosario, Kepler and Arraez. This will Make it difficult to bring in a lefty like Cleveland’s Perez.

 

As for who should lead off the three with Polanco have about the same ZIPS RC/27 projection. Arraez is the lowest of the 4 but it is close. I think I would have the lefties in slots 1,4,7 or possibly 2,5,8. If 147 I would lead off with Arraez and hit Kepler 4th. If 258 I would lead off with Polanco followed by Kepler with Arraez 8th.

 

 

 

 

[DocBauer]

Bringing this OP back up front again.

 

I think we all agree that you could draw names out of a hat and put together a lineup that is dangerous and makes sense.

 

But that is also a "good problem" to have. I mean, really, Donaldson, Cruz, you could plug them in 2-5 and not be wrong. How about Sano when he gets his legs under him?

 

But Kepler, Polanco and Arraez are the most "interesting" pieces in the lineup to consider aren't they? All 3 have the ability to hit almost anywhere. How do you mess with what Kepler did last year? Except, maybe his production and power would be even better lower. We've seen Molitor and Rocco place Polanco anywhere from 1-5 and he produces, and seems to fit. Arraez could be devastating hitting with Buxton at the bottom of the order, or provide a completely different kind of dangerous contact/AVG hitter in a 6 or 7 spot after some power guys and ahead of further dangerous batters.

 

Maybe I'm just old school. But I want my top hitters to work and frustrate the pitcher. I've always believed in the most balanced lineup you can put together but have believed in a "depth" approach. The leadoff HR is AWESOME, but doesn't happen enough to make a difference IMO. I want the opposition's team to struggle as much as they can the 1st inning so that everyone can see what they have that day. (Not to mention the umpire which is a whole different topic).

 

I'm not sure if Donaldson should hit #2 or not. He's done great there in his career, but he's also done great a couple spots lower. Kepler did great in the #1 spot last year, but could be even more productive hitting lower with guys OB. Personally, I'd have Arraez doing what he does in the #1 spot, getting hits and OB, workjng the count, and frustrating the pitcher.

 

We can debate how the rest of the lineup works best, Polanco vs Donaldson, etc. But I really want that guy who sets the tone at #1. With all due respect to Max, I just think that guy should be Arraez.

[twins1095]

Arraez with a cool 26 pitches seen in 4 plate appearances (6.5 pitches per plate appearance) in his first game as a leadoff hitter this season. 

 

 

[Rosterman]

Yes, the object is to get as many pitches see. Plus he can work a count and also get on base. I would bat Kepler 5th. I would bat Polanco second and Donaldson third.