Now Is Not the Time to Doubt Byron Buxton

[Nash Walker]

Yes, it happened again. Byron Buxton suffered a mid-foot sprain just days before the Twins’ opener. Despite the optics, Buxton said he’s going to play on opening day.First, you feel for Buck. He’s worked tirelessly to rehab from labrum surgery in order to prepare himself for the 2020 season. The Athletic’s Dan Hayes quoted him last week as “having no limits.” Even if he is out there on opening day, he will likely have limits.

 

The response to Buxton’s latest injury was expected, but disappointing. Twins fans hit Twitter to drop the tiring lines “you can’t make this up” and “we should have traded him when we had the chance.” Buxton, a once top prospect, is not solely responsible for his injuries. There is an immeasurable amount of bad luck involved, too. He’s a super-athlete playing at the highest speed imaginable. Injuries happen. Still, he’s only 26 years old and will be in Minnesota through at least 2022. His best days remain ahead.

 

 

Did you know that in 2019, Buxton had a higher average exit velocity (89.3 mph) than Gleyber Torres, Anthony Rizzo, and Carlos Correa? He did. Did you know that since 2017, Buxton has more bWAR (7.8) than Nationals star Juan Soto in 11 less games? He does. Did you know that on August 1, 2019, Buxton was tied for 39th in all of baseball in fWAR (2.7)? He was.

 

 

Buxton, on August 1, ranked 15th among outfielders in fWAR, above the likes of Bryce Harper, Austin Meadows, and Whit Merrifield.

 

Everyone is sick of the precursor “when Buxton is on the field…” because *when* feels like it never happens. We can’t pretend we know that he will stay healthy. But let’s go down this rabbit hole again.

 

When Buxton is on the field, the Twins are more prolific. When Buxton is on the field, he gets MVP votes. When Buxton is on the field, the Twins go from a really good team to a great team.

 

That should be enough to continue to dream on what could be.

 

His adjustments at the plate are good enough reasons, too.

 

Buxton played in 140 games in 2017 and hit a lukewarm .253/.314/.413 with only 36 extra-base hits.

 

Since then, his average exit velocity has increased by more than 4 mph. His launch angle has increased almost eight degrees. His hard-hit rate has jumped 6.4%. He’s a different, much more dangerous force at the plate these days. The kind of force that is almost unfair hitting ninth. Buxton slugged .513 in 2019, ranking 21st among outfielders who played at least 80 games.

 

Oh, and he’s *outstanding* on the grass.

 

 

His defense in centerfield is second-to-none. His Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 innings is 13.0, the highest of any centerfielder with at least 2,000 innings at the position since 2017. Buxton saved 23 runs in 2017, second to only Mookie Betts’ 30 among all outfielders.

 

The disappointment and discord Twins fans have with Buxton is rooted in impatience. Success at the highest level is almost never linear. Buxton is presumably entering his physical prime and should be producing, yes. That he hasn’t shouldn’t result in a fan base throwing in the towel. He’s an extremely special talent and has the sole ability to transform this club into one of the best in recent memory. He’s that influential.

 

We must continue to dream on Buck’s potential. He’s still a key piece of the Twins’ immediate and long-term future.

 

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[strumdatjaguar]

Then again, some players are injury-prone. Maybe in the end, Buxton will become the next Cal Ripken Jr type Iron Man. However, it is more likely that he is among those players who are perpetually injury prone. We’ve seen this movie before. He also plays outfield, a position where the Twins have a bevy of talent ready or almost ready to start. If he makes it through this short season as a star, then he should be NOT be untouchable and an offseason trade should be considered while his value is high. Nobody gets ripped much for suggesting Eddie Rosario should be traded. Buxton’s injury history is a legitimate reason for hiS name to be entered into the “trade an outfielder sometime” conversation.

[Danchat]

This is pretty similar to the Vikings' Dalvin Cook. They're both incredibly talented, but unfortunately injury prone.

[dxpavelka]

You seem to forget that many fans are stupid.

[DocBauer]

This is pretty similar to the Vikings' Dalvin Cook. They're both incredibly talented, but unfortunately injury prone.

 

I would go back further and talk about Robert Smith. Injury plagued his first couple of seasons and then learned to conserve his body, or have better luck, or both, and the rest is history, (I've made this point so often it makes me irritated to state it again, lol). I'd even argue Smith was the best RB in the history of the Vikings franchise over AP, but retired early and on his own.

 

Different topic for a different day, but we can also look at Hunters early career. He was rushed. He also fought injury. Finally, the Twins had Hunter work with Buck! A cleat in the grass is freaky, as has been a couple of his other injuries.

 

And whether you believe in karma or not, you just DON'T give up on a 26yo talent like Buxton no matter how frustrated you may feel.

 

His defense is extraordinary, but all of us, Twins included, would give up a few singles and a few doubles over a season if it kept him on the field. Because his being on the field still means some great outs, and some quality offense. There is no need to re-post the offensive numbers posted above in the OP. Simply, healthy, despite scratching the surface of his potential, Buck is a dangerous presence on the offensive side of the game if healthy.

 

And he's still young, learning and growing!

 

With a little caution, luck and development, can you imagine how good he could be a year or two from now?

 

If injury persists and the kid remains unlucky or prone, with other talent in the pipeline, I get it. But I totally agree that now is not the time to give up on Buxton.

[theBOMisthebomb]

Maybe Buxton's body just isn't made to play major league baseball. When does it stop becoming bad luck? I hope Buxton can learn how to conserve his body and stay healthy. I have compared Buxton to an NFL quarterback who refuses to slide or step out of bounds. I hope he 'gets it' and has a long successful career. Right now, that outcome is in doubt and Twins fans should feel frustrated. We don't need Buxton to run through a wall in a standard run of the mill midseason game. We need him on the field for 85% of the team's regular season games and for the postseason. Buxton must find a way to stay on the field.

[jmlease1]

Unfortunately, luck and health are two factors that are mostly outside of a player or team's control. But they are also important factors that can be the difference between greatness and not.

 

I'm not giving up on Buxton. He's a terrific talent who looks like he's putting it together at the plate and is already elite in the field and on the bases. He also seems like a genuinely good dude too. I don't think his injuries are a matter of him "getting it" at this point: he's had some bad luck and that's the way it goes.

 

[Squirrel]

You seem to forget that many fans are stupid.

I wouldn’t say anyone is stupid. In fact I don’t think that at all.

 

Some may not seek out as much information and know all the integral facts.

 

Then, again, those that do often disagree.

 

One way or another, Buxton needs to stay on the field. He is an elite talent and athlete and we need him to stay healthy and luck has not been on his side, imo.

[rdehring]

Great article and I for one am looking for Buxton to be in center for about 55 games this year. Then the Twins can sign him to a nice extension next winter so when he sets the MLB record for most doubles he does so at Target Field.

 

Found it interesting to see that whereas Sano returned this week, Astudillo was put on the COVID List opening a second spot on the 60-man roster. Was surprised to see that Aaron Whitfield was one of the two players added. Hit less than .200 last summer, but the Twins must really like his athleticism, speed and defense in center field.   

[jjswol]

There are a lot of "betting-on-the-come" Buxton fans out there but there are also a lot of "show me the money" me fans too. Both sides are right to a degree but the Twins FO gets to make that call, their future depends on their decision. The Twins have a lot of money and time invested but sooner or later you need a return on your investment. 

[Penthang]

On the record: Buxton will be the teams MVP this year and in the conversation for league MVP…and the Twins are loaded with candidates who could be in play for that title: Donaldson, Garver(if he plays enough games), Palanco, Sano, Kepler, and Berrios.

[jimbo92107]

Of course you could get some value for Buxton in a trade. Sure you could. But you'd be getting unproven prospects, not an MLB star. And then for the next decade we'd all get to feel once again the joy of watching David Ortiz become Big Pappy in Boston. 

 

I want Buxton to stay a Twin until there is zero chance of him becoming an established superstar. Give him his entire chance in Minnesota. Put a little extra padding on the fences. Give him better shoes. Let his star shine with the Twinkies.

[h2oface]

This is your team....

These are grown men....

These are Minnesota Twins.....

Please..... Don't Call Them Twinkies! 

 

Buxton makes this a GREAT Minnesota Twins team when on the field. Case closed.

 

[The Wise One]

Now is not the right time to doubt Buxton. That is the title. There is plenty of room to doubt Buxton as there has been little evidence to say there will be a full season out of him. There is no wrong time at this point to doubt him. 

[D.C Twins]

Enjoy him for the next 3 seasons. If the injury trends continue, just cannot risk signing him to a long contract. We are not the Yankees.

 

His speed will decline staring about next year and ergo is defense will decline too.

 

Not for an extension and not for a long term contract (either he'll be injury prone by 2023 or he won't and he'll be waaaaaay to expensive for the backside of his career)

[D.C Twins]

That being said... I love watching him play and am glad to have him whenever he can play over the next 3 years.

 

i will also wish him the best an root for him when he leaves

[D.C Twins]

One last comment....foot injuries can be very rough...re-injury and aggravation rate is high.

 

This is very much a big deal, especially over a 60 day season.

[jud6312]

I couldn't disagree more.

 

Nobody (or at least very few) is questioning or doubting the talent level. It's a total game-changer when he's on the field and we all desperately want to see it.

 

But whether it's "bad luck" (not an actual thing) or playing style or some combination of the two, staying healthy enough to put that top-notch talent on display on a regular basis is a skill in and of itself. If he can't do that, he can't display those other tools.

 

So, no, nobody should question or doubt the talent level Buck has, but I think it's absolutely fair to question whether or not he'll ever be healthy enough to contribute on a regular basis. So far (8 years), he hasn't proven that he can.

 

It doesn't mean we're "stupid," or a naysayer or someone who doesn't dig deep into the numbers. It means we've watched a young player that's had a history of injuries ranging from minor to major over the course of the last 8 years.

[jkcarew]

The OBP was not good (again) last year and the SLG was boosted by an unsustainable doubles rate. He’s still got two things to prove...durability and offense. You’re either doubting or you’re hoping.

[adorduan]

"Did you know that since 2017, Buxton has more bWAR (7.8) than Nationals star Juan Soto in 11 less games?"

 

that may be, but I'd take Soto over Buxton every day of the week...

[rghrbek]

 

I couldn't disagree more.

 

Nobody (or at least very few) is questioning or doubting the talent level. It's a total game-changer when he's on the field and we all desperately want to see it.

 

But whether it's "bad luck" (not an actual thing) or playing style or some combination of the two, staying healthy enough to put that top-notch talent on display on a regular basis is a skill in and of itself. If he can't do that, he can't display those other tools.

 

So, no, nobody should question or doubt the talent level Buck has, but I think it's absolutely fair to question whether or not he'll ever be healthy enough to contribute on a regular basis. So far (8 years), he hasn't proven that he can.

 

It doesn't mean we're "stupid," or a naysayer or someone who doesn't dig deep into the numbers. It means we've watched a young player that's had a history of injuries ranging from minor to major over the course of the last 8 years.

 

 

Here is the deal, Buck should be the key to our future.  We all want this.  Unfortunately, telling us to not give up to him is not fair.  Telling us to do anything is weird.  This whole site is based on stats and facts.  When he plays the twins are better, when he doesn't play we are not quite as good.  So he is injured a ton, that would suggest we should be worried and be close to giving up.  

I want  him to be relevant, but based on his past we are allowed to not be 100% believers.

I will believe when he plays, a lot.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

 

 

I want Buxton to stay a Twin until there is zero chance of him becoming an established superstar. Give him his entire chance in Minnesota. Put a little extra padding on the fences.

 

I agree about the fences having more padding.

[Channing1964]

I love Buxton and the fact that he's injury prone is a clear signal to people like Cave and Wade that they better show up to the park ready to play every single day.

[Aerodeliria]

Is this a re-post article from spring 2019? Just checking ;-)

[sampleSizeOfOne]

I was just wondering if the route to another .400 hitter was via Buxton style speed rather than extreme hitting skills.