Minnesota’s Rotation Gets No Respect (from MLB.com)

[Patrick Wozniak]

MLB.com has been ranking teams according to various aspects and Minnesota fared well as the second overall offense (Cody Christie covers it here). But when it comes to the rotation, Minnesota has been given the Rodney Dangerfield treatment.Not only was the rotation left out of the top-10, it didn’t even make the honorable mention group! This seems like a slight considering the rotation was borderline top-10 in 2019 and has added Rich Hill, Kenta Maeda, and even Homer Bailey to fill out what was already a pretty good rotation.

 

The numbers don’t lie (they can’t even talk!). Minnesota’s starters ranked seventh in fWAR. When we look at park and league adjusted pitching statistics, the 2019 Twins rotation also ranked seventh in ERA(-), and FIP(-) and ninth in xFIP(-). That makes a pretty strong case for cracking the top-10, but the 2020 rotation is not the 2019 rotation – it’s better!

 

Gone are Kyle Gibson and Martín Pérez, who were unambiguously Minnesota’s two worst starters last season. Gibson never really seemed himself while battling ulcerative colitis and ended the year in the bullpen. He finished with a 4.84 ERA and signed a three-year deal with the Texas Rangers (who somehow come in at number seven with Gibson listed as their fourth starter) in the offseason. Of course, we only have to go back to 2018 to see a good year from Gibson (3.62 ERA), but he had a 5.07 ERA in both 2016 and 2017 and has only had an ERA of below 4.00 twice in his career (ZiPS doesn’t believe in Gibson either, pegging him for a 5.19 ERA this year).

 

Pérez’s 2019 started off on an amazing run, going 7-1 with a 2.95 ERA through May 23^rd and it looked like Wes Johnson had really worked some magic. But the wheels were quick to fly off and Pérez ended the season with an unsightly 5.12 ERA and was left off the postseason roster. He signed a one-year deal with the Boston Red Sox and is projected for a 5.09 ERA by ZiPS.

 

With Gibby and Pérez out of the picture, the Twins retained the good part of their rotation (José Berríos, Jake Odorizzi, and Michael Pineda, who is suspended for the first half plus of the 60 game season) and essentially replaced the castoffs with Rich Hill and Kenta Maeda. Hill’s last season with an ERA above 4.00 was 2013 and he had a 2.45 ERA for the Dodgers in 2019.

 

Hill could easily be Minnesota’s best pitcher this year, but Kenta Maeda is no slouch either. He has a 3.87 ERA for his career and an even better 3.71 FIP. The swapping of Gibson and Pérez for Hill and Maeda is a huge upgrade and should significantly bolster the Twins rotation. Plus Minnesota has either the “new and improved” version of Homer Bailey or Randy Dobnak, who was great in his brief rookie campaign, to keep Pineda’s chair warm. Throw in Lewis Thorpe, Devin Smeltzer (and his new and improved slider), and potentially Jhoulys Chacín, and the Twins also boast incredible depth.

 

Maybe the rotation hasn’t quite earned top-five status, but considering they were already a top-10 rotation last year and have only gotten better should place them firmly in the top-10. The fact that six additional honorable mention teams were added to the list and the Twins were still left off is absurd.

 

Although the almost unwatchable “pitch-to-contact” rotations of the Gardy and Rick Anderson era are long gone (but amazingly still alive in Detroit), and the Twins are at the forefront of modern pitching innovation, it seems they have yet to get the respect they deserve. Look for that to change over the next 60 games.

 

What do you think about MLB.com’s top-10 rotation list? Should the Twins be in? Where do they fit? Finally, how do you feel about Rodney Dangerfield?

 

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[Danchat]

I think they've vastly overrated the Rangers on that list; I'm not sure I'd put them in the top 10. 

 

I think I'd put the Twins at #8 or 9. The A's probably belong on this list too. Not sure if I'd put Houston on there with no Cole and McCullers returning after surgery, Urquidy injured / not with the team, and Josh James being a reliever in 2019. They appear to be lacking depth (next options appear to be Framber Valdez (5.86 ERA in 70 innings last year) and Forrest Whitley (their #1 prospect)).

[mikelink45]

I would drop the Rangers and add the A's.  But the Twins still have to prove it to me.  Sorry, no home town favoritism here.  I love Berrios, but he has not shown that he can pick up the ball and take on the big boys in a key series.  Odorizzi has been a five inning pitcher - that is not a number 2 - make to seven.  Pineda has spent have of the last seasons in suspension for pEDS.  Maeda is put in the pen at the end of the season for the Dodgers.  He might be great for us, but if we succeed we have to face the Dodgers.  Hill is 41.  His career is a good story for us old guys, but he is not going to the HOF or even close.  Bailey got a big contract and provided a big let down.  We have the Uber driver and a lot of hopefuls.  That does not get you rated.  Let us see them produce the numbers and take us to the promised land and then the ratings will go up.    

 

Last note on the Rangers - Lance Lynn will forever be one of my least favorite players and Gibson has been a disappointment even at his best.  Was someone from Texas on the panel.

[DocBauer]

Sorry, but that ranking or lack of, is a joke.

 

Hill may only be able to handle half a season but that's what he's being asked to do. And he's been great in those half seasons for a few years now and reports are he's primed and ready. (Fingers crossed for what I believe is his swan song).

 

Berrios is STILL only 26yo and his only problem is fading late in the season, yes, I said ONLY as that is a big deal, of course. But he rebounded last year after making some adjustments to his intense training regime. And he was going to make more this season to focus more on general conditioning before the stop. Still young, still learning, he has a tremendous future. But a 60 game season? There should be no doubts about potential dominance.

 

Oddorizi is not great, but he is solid to good to sometimes great, even if it's only 5-6IP. He was good in 2018 and turned a corner in 2019. As recounted in another thread, despite a better 1st half than 2nd, he was really good in 2019. Take away July when he was dealing with a blister issue, he was even better. He's a solid #2 but a great #3. And I hope he will be that beyond 2020.

 

Maeda is also no stud. But his career numbers are very good. He was never thrown in to the Dogers bullpen because he couldn't pitch. Despite rumors the RICH Dogers were looking to save $ on his unique contract, it has been reported repeatedly he was moved to the pen to shore up a weakness there for a playoff run since they bad enough rotation depth. He is also coming off his best career year against LH batters.

 

Bailey? You tell me. Sure seemed like he re-invented himself last year. If not, how about a healthy Pineda who was borderline excellent once he literally got his legs under him last season. Oh wait, how about Dobnak, Thorpe and Smeltzer?

 

Channing1964 made a post in the Odorizzi OP a few days ago from the Athletic where there was a poll of scouts who ranked SP on some sort of 1-4 poll. This by no means is any sort of MLB gospel, but the way the final results tallied, the Twins would have 5 or 6 of the TOP 60 SP in baseball even if they didn't have a top ACE.

 

Yes, I'm a homer. But I've watched this team play and I've seen these arms. Not even in the top 10???

 

PLEASE!!!

[mikelink45]

 

Sorry, but that ranking or lack of, is a joke.

Hill may only be able to handle half a season but that's what he's being asked to do. And he's been great in those half seasons for a few years now and reports are he's primed and ready. (Fingers crossed for what I believe is his swan song).

Berrios is STILL only 26yo and his only problem is fading late in the season, yes, I said ONLY as that is a big deal, of course. But he rebounded last year after making some adjustments to his intense training regime. And he was going to make more this season to focus more on general conditioning before the stop. Still young, still learning, he has a tremendous future. But a 60 game season? There should be no doubts about potential dominance.

Oddorizi is not great, but he is solid to good to sometimes great, even if it's only 5-6IP. He was good in 2018 and turned a corner in 2019. As recounted in another thread, despite a better 1st half than 2nd, he was really good in 2019. Take away July when he was dealing with a blister issue, he was even better. He's a solid #2 but a great #3. And I hope he will be that beyond 2020.

Maeda is also no stud. But his career numbers are very good. He was never thrown in to the Dogers bullpen because he couldn't pitch. Despite rumors the RICH Dogers were looking to save $ on his unique contract, it has been reported repeatedly he was moved to the pen to shore up a weakness there for a playoff run since they bad enough rotation depth. He is also coming off his best career year against LH batters.

Bailey? You tell me. Sure seemed like he re-invented himself last year. If not, how about a healthy Pineda who was borderline excellent once he literally got his legs under him last season. Oh wait, how about Dobnak, Thorpe and Smeltzer?

Channing1964 made a post in the Odorizzi OP a few days ago from the Athletic where there was a poll of scouts who ranked SP on some sort of 1-4 poll. This by no means is any sort of MLB gospel, but the way the final results tallied, the Twins would have 5 or 6 of the TOP 60 SP in baseball even if they didn't have a top ACE.

Yes, I'm a homer. But I've watched this team play and I've seen these arms. Not even in the top 10???

PLEASE!!!

You really gave a lot of excellent reasons why we are not top ten!  All they have to do is go out and prove the raters wrong.

[rdehring]

Will agree that the Twins are/should be ranked in the Top 10, perhaps as high as the 6-8 range considering their depth.

 

But would you prefer to have them ranked Top 10? Or since you mentioned Dangerfield, "getting no respect?" I'll take the Rodney side of that coin and hope like heck they pitch the entire summer with a big chip on their shoulders.

[Trov]

I am not going to argue where Twins should be on the list, but I agree they should be in top 10.  We will play the games and see where it all shakes out.  No list will determine the season, the play on the field will.  So pumped. 

[Doctor Gast]

I think they put a lot of stock into pitching at least 7 quality innings on a constant basis & racking up a lot of quality innings, basically how they rate on a scale of being an ace. Only Berrios comes close to be an ace or Hill when he gets stretched out. So looking that way our rotation doesn`t rank that high.  But what really makes the difference from 2019 to 2020 is the pitching support & BP w/ that angle I think the Twins rotation should have made honorable mention

[D.C Twins]

I suspect that it is because, if we are being honest, there are some big question marks....essentially a wide confidence interval.....which is fair.

 

Odo, Hill, Maeda, Bailey, Dobnak, Pineda....would not be surprised by the wheels falling off any of them... or having a great season

[Linus]

I give credit to the front office. If you can’t get an ace then build depth. They have done a great job of that. I feel that the Twins can withstand injuries or poor performance pretty easily. It will hurt in a playoff series but their rotation should get us there

[Twins_Fan_For_Life]

5-6 inning starters are fine if you have a great bullpen. And the Twins look to have a great bullpen.

[DannySD]

That's fine. Now they can sneak up on people. 

[yarnivek1972]

I tell ya, I get no respect. No respect at all. I looked up my family tree. Three dogs were using it.

 

~ Rodney Dangerfield, the man, the myth, the legend

[Linus]

I tell ya, I get no respect. No respect at all. I looked up my family tree. Three dogs were using it.

 

~ Rodney Dangerfield, the man, the myth, the legend

I tell ya even as a kid I got no respect. We had a dog that we called Egypt because he left a pyramid in every room. No respect at all

[Channing1964]

Yeah, in this abbreviated season the Twins are at least a top ten rotation. I will say this, top five is way more likely.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd rather them be disrespected and come in with a chip on their shoulder than to get too much respect and get overconfident. 

[dex8425]

 

I would drop the Rangers and add the A's.  But the Twins still have to prove it to me.  Sorry, no home town favoritism here.  I love Berrios, but he has not shown that he can pick up the ball and take on the big boys in a key series.  Odorizzi has been a five inning pitcher - that is not a number 2 - make to seven.  Pineda has spent have of the last seasons in suspension for pEDS.  Maeda is put in the pen at the end of the season for the Dodgers.  He might be great for us, but if we succeed we have to face the Dodgers.  Hill is 41.  His career is a good story for us old guys, but he is not going to the HOF or even close.  Bailey got a big contract and provided a big let down.  We have the Uber driver and a lot of hopefuls.  That does not get you rated.  Let us see them produce the numbers and take us to the promised land and then the ratings will go up.    

 

Last note on the Rangers - Lance Lynn will forever be one of my least favorite players and Gibson has been a disappointment even at his best.  Was someone from Texas on the panel.

 

Kluber, Lynn, Mike Minor, Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles is interesting. They could be really good, or they could be really awful, or have injury issues. Only one of those guys is under 30 (Lyles is 29). Lots of question marks. I love Gibby and hope he shoves. I kinda expect him to do well honestly; his stuff is just too good. 

[amjgt]

 

Kluber, Lynn, Mike Minor, Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles is interesting. They could be really good, or they could be really awful, or have injury issues. Only one of those guys is under 30 (Lyles is 29). Lots of question marks. I love Gibby and hope he shoves. I kinda expect him to do well honestly; his stuff is just too good. 

 

Maybe it's just the homer in me, but doesn't that read like a Poor Man's version of the Twins staff?

[amjgt]

Side Note: Congrats to ESPN for somehow managing to not write a single word about the Twins in this season prediction article, in spite of 28 of the 30 experts predicting the Twins make the playoffs (24 of them by winning the central) and 3 of them predicting the Twins make the World Series.

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29474430/2020-mlb-season-expert-predictions-division-picks-playoff-field-world-series-winner

 

[dex8425]

 

Maybe it's just the homer in me, but doesn't that read like a Poor Man's version of the Twins staff?

Hmm. Well it's not a poor mans version because all five of those starters in Tex are on big contracts. No question marks with Berrios either. But yes, not really sure what we're going to get from Hill or Bailey or Maeda. Hill, Maeda and Bailey are all on cheap deals though. 

 

[yarnivek1972]

Side Note: Congrats to ESPN for somehow managing to not write a single word about the Twins in this season prediction article, in spite of 28 of the 30 experts predicting the Twins make the playoffs (24 of them by winning the central) and 3 of them predicting the Twins make the World Series.

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29474430/2020-mlb-season-expert-predictions-division-picks-playoff-field-world-series-winner

There’s a reason it is known as the Eastern Seaboard Prejudice Network.

[ashbury]

Does last night's game earn us a bump in the ranking?