Central Intelligence 2.0: Kansas City Royals

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins will face each Central opponent 10 times in their coming 60-game sprint, so success against these familiar foes is critical. Fortunately the Royals – like the Tigers – are coming off a brutal 100-loss season. With that said, Kansas City does figure to offer a bit more resistance than Detroit, thanks to some legit high-end talent.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS AT A GLANCE

2019 Record: 59-103, 4th Place

2019 fWAR Leader (Offense): Jorge Soler, OF - 3.6

2019 fWAR Leader (Pitching): Brad Keller, RHP - 2.2

 

Key Offseason Additions: Maikel Franco (3B), Trevor Rosenthal (RP)

Key Offseason Losses: Cheslor Cuthbert (1B/3B), Jorge Bonifacio (OF)

 

2020 Over/Under: 25.0

 

TEAM OVERVIEW

The Royals are a pretty top-heavy team, which could benefit them in the shortened format. Their offense is led by Jorge Soler, who blasted a league-leading 48 home runs with 117 RBIs in a breakout 2019. They're getting back one of baseball's best catchers in Salvador Perez, who missed last year due to Tommy John surgery. They've got some players. Just not enough players.

 

General manager Dayton Moore did essentially nothing to upgrade a 103-loss team, other than adding another undisciplined slugger in Maikel Franco. Still, the plucky Royals could be pesky.

 

STRENGTHS

Perez is an undisciplined slugger in his own right, but also an elite defender and perennial All-Star. His return makes a big difference for a team that is not without its standouts, such as:

• Whit Merrifield, arguably the most underrated player in baseball. He was an All-Star in 2019, slashing .302/.348/.463 while playing five different positions. He has led the American League in hits two years running, led in triples last year, and led in steals in 2018 and 2017. Merrifield is a speedy bat-handling ironman who deserves far more notoriety.
• JORGE. SOLER. Like Merrifield, it seems we don't talk about this guy enough. That's the sad reality of playing for an irrelevant Royals team, I suppose. Soler had more home runs and RBIs last year than anyone on the Bomba Squad, and he posted a 1.076 OPS with 25 dingers after the All-Star break. He's the type of transcendent slugging talent that could do something wild like hit 30 jacks in 60 games.
• Hunter Dozier, who tied Merrifield for the league lead with 10 triples in 2019. The third baseman posted a Moustaka-esque .279/.348/.522 with 26 homers and 84 RBIs.
• Adalberto Mondesi, who tied Merrifield AND Dozier for the league lead with 10 triples in 2019 (no joke) and is entering his age 24 season. He's a former top prospect and he's crazy athletic, having slashed .263/.291/.424 with 43 steals last year, but his plate discipline has held him back thus far.

The Royals are an interesting club. They had the AL's third-lowest team OBP in 2019 but the second-most steals. They aren't a power-hitting team generally, but they have the league's best power hitter. They're gonna be a thorny opponent.

 

WEAKNESSES

Maybe not that thorny though. The fact remains: even with Soler launching 48 bombs and a bunch of other scrappy dudes running wild, the Royals lost 103 games, which equates to the "Total System Failure" fiasco for Minnesota in 2016.

 

Their rotation is weak, led by starters in Danny Duffy and Brad Keller who would maybe be competing for the Twins' fifth spot. Alex Gordon is basically a post-prime Joe Mauer presence at this point. The bullpen is flimsy.

 

Worst of all, the Royals have an utterly mediocre farm system, and only three of their top ten prospects are above Single-A, none above Double-A. While Detroit has elite pitching prospects in the offing, Kansas City has no cavalry en route, and their rebuild has all the makings of a painful and extended one. So while the ROyals look like a better team than the Tigers at this moment, it's very possible that won't be the case by season's end.

 

One has to wonder if they will try to cash in on Soler's high value at some point soon, with free agency just two years away.

 

WILD CARD

Speed. Kansas City's penchant for running makes them disruptive. (Think "piranhas.") They stole 117 bases in 2019 and they did so with a pretty strong 75% success rate. (The Twins stole a league-low 25 with a 53% success rate.) The Royals were also second among AL teams in triples with 40 – that'll happen when you've got three guys tied for the league lead.

 

Now, the Royals do have a new manager in Mike Matheny, and there's no guarantee he'll exhibit the same aggressiveness as Ned Yost did. But given all the guys on this roster who can fly, and how difficult it's gonna be for them to score runs generally, I'd wager we see plenty of steals, hit-and-runs, and attempts to take extra bases. That puts pressure on opponents, even those with clear talent superiority. It could ruffle the Twins' feathers.

 

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[mikelink45]

I really like the fact that they have gone against the trend and used speed and stolen bases to try to equalize their disadvantages.  They can be fun to watch and they throw off the teams they face because teams do not see this kind of strategy in other opponents. 

[Trov]

They may steal some games with their offense, but their pitching will let them down more often than not.  They were the first super bullpen of the area, now they do not have much.  For whatever reason they seem to play us tight though over the years.  Normally fun games to watch. 

[bird]

Man alive, this organization is in complete shambles. I'll be surprised, even in this sprint season, if they even keep up with Detroit record-wise. The really bad news for them is how utterly hopeless things look, even longer-term. Even their three best starting pitching prospects probably slot in there with Duran and Balazovic, or maybe worse. None are MLB-ready. And half their lineup will be easy outs. Even if, somehow, Merrifield, Soler, Perez, and Mondesi all have an injury-free monster 60 games, this club is in deep doo-doo.

[Twins_Fan_For_Life]

I love going to Kauffman for a Twins series. Very knowledgeable fans. Great people and a fun town. They need to trade their four or five top players to teams that will part with prospects. Lots and lots of prospects. They have to restock their farm system that they decimated when they "went for it" during their World Series years.

[Nick Nelson]

 

I love going to Kauffman for a Twins series. Very knowledgeable fans. Great people and a fun town. They need to trade their four or five top players to teams that will part with prospects. Lots and lots of prospects. They have to restock their farm system that they decimated when they "went for it" during their World Series years.

Could not agree more. Road-tripping down to KC for a Twins/Royals series, beer and BBQ has become an annual summer tradition and one that I'll miss dearly this year. 

[UPDude]

 

I really like the fact that they have gone against the trend and used speed and stolen bases to try to equalize their disadvantages.  They can be fun to watch and they throw off the teams they face because teams do not see this kind of strategy in other opponents. 

Kind of like trotting out a baseball equivalent of the Wishbone.