Will Jake Odorizzi Be Minnesota’s Ace in 2020?

[Patrick Wozniak]

There’s been a lot of talk about the potential dominance of Jose Berrios or a healthy Rich Hill in a 60-game season, and newcomer Kenta Maeda also looks like a good bet, but could it be Jake Odorizzi who ends up being the most dominant starter in Minnesota’s rotation?While it’s certainly ill-advised to bet against Berrios or Hill who are well set up to succeed, Odorizzi has the kind of skill set that could excel in a shortened season.

 

Jayson Stark and Eno Sarris of the Athletic recently collaborated on a piece that looked at impossible things that could happen in a 60-game season. One thing they looked at was whether a pitcher such as Matthew Boyd, who has above-average strikeout and walk rates but is susceptible to the longball, could win the Cy Young award due to the fluctuation in home run rates from year-to-year with pitchers. Interestingly, both Odorizzi and Maeda rank amongst the top-five in baseball when taking these three factors into account.

 

Of course, being included in a top-five grouping that includes giving up a bunch of dingers isn’t in and of itself such a good thing, but if either Odorizzi or Maeda finds a way to lower their home run rates (or really just gets a bit lucky in such a short sample-size), they have the potential to be really good in 2020.

 

It’s not hard to find evidence of Odorizzi’s ability to dominate in short stretches. In fact, if we take a look at his statistics for Minnesota’s first 60-games of 2019 we can see just how good Odorizzi can be. Odorizzi made 12 starts and recorded a 1.96 ERA, allowing only four home runs and five doubles, along with a 2.58 Win Probability Added (and this includes the rain-filled two-thirds of an inning disaster against Philadelphia on April 5^th).

 

If we take a look at Odorizzi’s results for the next 60-games we can see what happens when he does give up the longball. Over his next twelve starts Odorizzi gave up 11 homers (along with 17 doubles) and his ERA ballooned to 5.11 (with a WPA of -0.419). This includes the month of July, which was Odorizzi’s only month of the year with an ERA above four (7.43), but this coincides with a blister injury that landed him on the 10-day IL. If we chalk July’s struggles up to the blister injury, then Odorizzi didn’t have a bad month in 2019.

 

Odorizzi credited his success in 2019 to offseason work he did at the Florida Baseball Ranch, where alterations to his mechanics and workout routine led to gaining a couple of ticks in fastball velocity and increased carry. His offseason work blended nicely with pitching coach Wes Johnson’s philosophy and there’s no reason to believe Odorizzi’s success won’t spill over into 2020 as well.

 

The biggest obstacle to Odorizzi reaching dominance may be his inability to pitch late into games. He has been plagued by high pitch counts throughout his career and it showed up in the Twins first scrimmage. Byron Buxton fouled off pitch after pitch in Odorizzi’s fourth and final inning, going 13 pitches deep before the plate appearance was prematurely ended due to Odorizzi reaching his pitch count.

 

It would certainly be nice to see Odorizzi finish off batters more efficiently and go deeper into games, and to be truly dominant he must do so, but the Twins are well situated for short starts. If Homer Bailey takes the fifth and final spot in the rotation, Minnesota has Randy Dobnak and Lewis Thorpe available for longer relief stints. If Odorizzi is maxed out after five or six really good innings the Twins also have a borderline elite bullpen that runs deep and should avoid being overly taxed due to the overall quality and quantity of the starting rotation.

 

Whether he’s Cy Young-worthy or not, Jake Odorizzi and the Minnesota Twins are well positioned for greatness in 2020. Let there be baseball!

 

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[mikelink45]

I will take Berrios and Hill before Odorizzi.  Odorizzi was used well last year, he is not a dominant pitcher.

[Darius]

He was pretty darn good last last year, except for a 9 spot against the Yankees in July.

 

There were nearly 60 runs scored in that 3 game series.

 

Combine two of the most prolific home run hitting clubs in history, a juiced ball, and some thick Minnesota in July humidity.....and no pitcher on earth is safe. I feel pretty comfortable throwing that one out of the population to get a feel for how good he actually was.

[jmlease1]

To be the ace, you have to be able to get deep into games. Even if you kill it for 5 innings, you still can't be the ace if you're consistently coming out without finishing 6. Part of the responsibility of the #1 pitcher on a staff is turning that outing that saves the bullpen, and I'm just not sure Odorizzi can do it consistently enough. He doesn't finish off guys fast/easily enough.

 

I'm not saying he's not a good pitcher, and I'm very happy we brought him back for another spin. I was happy when we acquired him, and it's definitely paid off. But I think Berrios has better odds of being the ace, especially in a short season. Berrios seems to have some challenges staying sharp/strong during the long grind of the season, having some noticeable dips mid/later in the year. The shorter season may work to his advantage. But regardless, he's shown he has the stuff to be the guy.

[Dantes929]

I thought he was our ace in 2019.   His W-L, ERA, ERA+, FIP, WHIP, and SO/9 were all better than Berrios.    Only stat Berrios beat him at was innings pitched and that has become less important when a relief staff is full of guys with even better ERAs.   Plus I just felt like we were more likely to get a good performance when he was up.   Not trying to take away from Berrios here.   Over the course of a season innings are important to save a staff but Odorizzi was quite good.

[Doctor Gast]

Good point, Patrick. Last year Odorizzi in his 1st 60 days was dominate, better than Berrios. Odorizzi has been improving every year since we got him & they know how to use him ( he pitched by far, less innings than any SP except Pineda) so I believe this shortened season will greatly benefit him. 

[Trov]

I would not say Odo is an "ace" because of his lack of dominance and lack of pitching deep into games.  He can have good games and good stretches, but his approach to pitching and lack of dominate out pitch holds him back to be an "ace" in my opinion.

 

He will not give into hitters but also lacks the "out" pitch that aces have.  He is a good pitcher and glad to have him, but not sold on him leading a rotation.  When I think of aces I think of guys that will dominate for 7 plus innings.  Odo goes 5 innings most starts maybe 6 if you are lucky.  I bet if we get electronic strike zone he may improve because he loves to nibble the corners and if he is not getting calls his strike to ball ratio goes up, even if he is actually hitting zone.  I would be interested to see how often he was throwing strikes not called, and balls that were called strikes.  I could be wrong but it seems like he had a lot not called that should have been.

[Channing1964]

In the Athletic they recently had a scout poll rank starting pitchers on 1-4 tiers. included in the rankings are I.Aces I.2 Applicants. There are only 4 aces, Cole, Scherzer, deGrom, and Verlander. There are 18 applicants and I think Berrios is like number 12 overall. III. Starts with Greinke. There are 25 sp in this category of solid #3 guys. Maeda is #21 and Odorizzi is #25. In the IV. Category Pineda is listed as 11th best and Bailey is 13th. Rich Hill isn't on the list at all but from what we have seen so far my guess is he would rank somewhere

around Maeda and Odorizzi. Basically it means according to the survey the Twins have 6 of the top 60 Starting Pitchers in the mlb (#s 12,43,47,58,and #60). I am estimating Hill would be say #45 were he on the list at all. What does it mean? The closest thing we have to an Ace is Berrios with Maeda and Odorizzi not far behind. I think the group as a whole is better than 2019 but I also think we lack a true #1 guy. I don't know who that would be but I do know we will win plenty of games with the guys we have now.

[rdehring]

No, yes, maybe?

 

The good news is that it is looking like he has a chance as there will/maybe be baseball. The bigger question is, will Jake Odorizzi be in the hunt to be the Twins ACE in 2021? I for one sure as heck hope so.

[DocBauer]

Oddo had a very good year, though was better the first half for sure. As stated, take away a rough month dealing with a finger issue and his season is even more impressive.

 

In a 60 game season, anything is possible, of course. I like him a lot, glad he's back, and hope for an extension. But I just can't call him an ACE due to limited IP. He's a good #2 and a great #3. But is there further room to improve?

 

Berrios, younger and still growing, is our #1, IMO. Hill, ready to go for a 60 game short season, could be even better for 2020, however.

 

IMHO, Hill is done after this season, at least with the Twins. If Oddo is back in 2021, I really like that rotation as well. I'd like it better if Duran and Balazovic could gain valuable instruction, if not game time, to help set up 2021.