Article: Braves Signing Upton Hurts Twins' Trade Options

[John Bonnes]

This is just 1 team off the market for a CF. We still have trade partners in the Phillies, Reds, Rangers, Rays, and any other team that would like a cheap upgrade in center. Its the middle of the second inning of the offseason...chill

 

I'd just like to go through the teams you mentioned....

Phillies - Have lots of money. So much that the speculation is that they're chasing Hamilton and could drop back to Bourn. Span being cheap isn't unvaluable, but it also isn't necessary like it was for the Braves.

Texas - ditto

Rays - Lots of pitching and they need a CFer, and they need him to be cheap. But here's the thing - they were never going to be "in" on any of these bigger free agent center fielders. If a trade was going to get done with them, it could have been done weeks ago. And losing Upton and the Braves off the market doesn't hurt their bargaining position, just the Twins. The Twins and Rays might yet come together, but at this point we can assume they have talked and didn't find a deal. And at the very least, this hurts the Twins leverage.

Reds - I just don't see the major-league ready pitching that Ryan is looking for in this organization. I think they can work out a trade, and that trade might net them some future arms, but that is looking further to the future than I think Ryan wants to look.

 

So, yes, there are still fish in the sea, but I don't find them nearly as appealing.

[powrwrap]

Did Ryan wait too long here?

 

Seems like he did.

 

With the change to cold weather in the Twin Cities Ryan's hands got cold so he is sitting on them to keep warm. Expect this to happen until next spring's thaw.

[StormJH1]

I think the expectations about the trade returns for Span are way overblown. Even on the G & G podcast, there was straightfaced talk of Span-for-Mike Minor, or Span/Willingham for Billy Hamilton. Really? The Reds have the best athlete in all of baseball in their system, and they're just going to dump him off for Willingham (who overacheived last year and will kill them defensively in the NL) and Span (who is a nice player, but has injury/concussion concerns). Hamilton may only be "elite" in one category, but he's as elite as you could possibly be in that one category. Plus, you have to figure his range will at least be good whatever position he ends up at.

 

I think you can get something for Span, but it's probably more along the lines of a back-of-the-rotation starter.

 

This is a built-in phenomenon with Twins fans and even many of their smart bloggers - we were so accustomed to having garbage position players for years who never should have been major league starters, that as soon as we get somebody decent (Willingham's power, Span's average and plate approach), we fail to understand just how average those guys really are from the perspective of all the other teams in baseball.

 

Also, I wouldn't limit the returns to just "major league ready pitching". Just because we have a dire need for ML starters doesn't mean we couldn't also use some "B" level prospects in the 21-25 age range either (AA or AAA). We really don't have coming down the pipeline either. However, as I said above, I'm not sure Span could fetch that type of player, given the other FA or trade options available to teams that need a CF or LF.

[DaveW]

As your options shrink, your return usually shrinks. It's simple economics.....so ya, this is another bump in the offseason.

 

It works both ways. Now if you are a team who needs a CF there is now one less good/legit one on the market.

 

It's supply/demmand. Simple economics

[DaveW]

This is just 1 team off the market for a CF. We still have trade partners in the Phillies, Reds, Rangers, Rays, and any other team that would like a cheap upgrade in center. Its the middle of the second inning of the offseason...chill

 

I'd just like to go through the teams you mentioned....

Phillies - Have lots of money. So much that the speculation is that they're chasing Hamilton and could drop back to Bourn. Span being cheap isn't unvaluable, but it also isn't necessary like it was for the Braves.

Texas - ditto

Rays - Lots of pitching and they need a CFer, and they need him to be cheap. But here's the thing - they were never going to be "in" on any of these bigger free agent center fielders. If a trade was going to get done with them, it could have been done weeks ago. And losing Upton and the Braves off the market doesn't hurt their bargaining position, just the Twins. The Twins and Rays might yet come together, but at this point we can assume they have talked and didn't find a deal. And at the very least, this hurts the Twins leverage.

Reds - I just don't see the major-league ready pitching that Ryan is looking for in this organization. I think they can work out a trade, and that trade might net them some future arms, but that is looking further to the future than I think Ryan wants to look.

 

So, yes, there are still fish in the sea, but I don't find them nearly as appealing.

 

Does Texas really have that much money to spend? I don't think they have as much as some people believe.

[Mike Sixel]

Dave, agreed, but only the Rays have the kind of pitching "excess" the Twins really need of those team, I think. I expect the Phillies to sign a free agent. The Atlanta team has a ton of pitching in their minors, and to lose them, probably, as a trade partner is a disappointment.

[twinstalker]

It's also been mentioned that ATL may still be in the market for Span even though Upton was signed. It sounds unlikely, but given Span's team friendly deal, he could be attractive enough to make it a Span for middle IF deal instead. ATL has some stellar young SS.

Who? They have Pastornicky and Ahmed, both of whom project as utility guys. We're not getting Andrelton Simmons for Span. Dozier is absolutely just as good and maybe better than Pastornicky.

[Rosterman]

Hey, the Twins lost one of their 40-man additions on a waiver claim. Looks like they are doing a Rule 5 or a trade, maybe.

 

Being a general manager is a tough job. You want 10, as someone says, and are offered 6...and you keep hoping for that 8. You have fans complain when you trade Eddie Morlan as that extra player rather than Juan Rincon. You move out a Hardy because you sign some guy from Japan. I can complain that you basically let Manship and Bromberg walk rather than doing something with them.

 

Do you pull the plug on vets (Morneau and Span) or do you try and get something cor currently nothing (Benson) or to you dangle basic replacement parts (Revere and Parmelee) or actually ship off talent (Sano, Hicks, Arcia, Kepler, Hermsen et al). I always like the thoughts of moving prospects rather than losing them, especially if they are somewhat blocked in the system, have a decent minor league season, et al. Otherwise, you end up with a Benson...who will take him, today...and as he ages he is passed by others. Has his time come and gone. Will he luckily be the next Mike Restovich, or Trent Oeltjen or Doug Deeds?

 

One of the funner parts of this board is the trade talk, and 90% of the time it is favorable for the hometown team. WE all overvalu our players, so why get mad when the hometown management do the same. We all want what someone doesn't have to give because they basically want to get riod of spare parts, or players that they fel may be blocked in their system.

 

Being a general manager is tough. Hey, I would love to see an inter

rview in which a general manager is asked about the evaluation process of prospects that have left the organization. Take Gutierrez or Bromberg, for example. When did they see them as legit prospects. When did they fall off the radar. When could the plug have been pulled for a trade and why wasn't it. Sometimes you wonder at the amount of money spent on prospects that never pans out...how can you keep doing that over and over again. Better to not draft and just buy?

[biggentleben]

It's also been mentioned that ATL may still be in the market for Span even though Upton was signed. It sounds unlikely, but given Span's team friendly deal, he could be attractive enough to make it a Span for middle IF deal instead. ATL has some stellar young SS.

Who? They have Pastornicky and Ahmed, both of whom project as utility guys. We're not getting Andrelton Simmons for Span. Dozier is absolutely just as good and maybe better than Pastornicky.

 

Ahmed has a lot of variety in opinions. He could be anywhere from a low-end utility guy to a lower-first division shortstop based on different prospectors. He's a guy who could be a solid hitter (.270-.290 with some pop and a little speed) and his defensive value has drawn a wide variety of opinions, depending on the day you saw him.

 

You are correct on Simmons. You wouldn't get Simmons for Span and Sano, let alone Span.

[DaveW]

Dave, agreed, but only the Rays have the kind of pitching "excess" the Twins really need of those team, I think. I expect the Phillies to sign a free agent. The Atlanta team has a ton of pitching in their minors, and to lose them, probably, as a trade partner is a disappointment.

 

I would gladly trade Span for a good young 2B/SS as well. We need pitching, but lets not forget we have plenty of other holes in the majors/minors as well.

[cmathewson]

Span represents an upgrade in center for about 15 teams in the MLB, given his WAR/$$$ ratio. One other CF moving from one of those teams to another doesn't change anything. Now the Rays rather than the Braves are on the list of potential trading partners. Why the panic button?

[cmathewson]

Span represents an upgrade in center for about 15 teams in the MLB, given his WAR/$$$ ratio. One other CF moving from one of those teams to another doesn't change anything. Now the Rays rather than the Braves are on the list of potential trading partners. Why the panic button?

 

By the way, the Rays are the better trading partner, as they are rumored to be shopping both Shields and Hellickson.

[PseudoSABR]

Span represents an upgrade in center for about 15 teams in the MLB, given his WAR/$$$ ratio. One other CF moving from one of those teams to another doesn't change anything. Now the Rays rather than the Braves are on the list of potential trading partners. Why the panic button?

 

By the way, the Rays are the better trading partner, as they are rumored to be shopping both Shields and Hellickson.

They also have Jennings, who can both play CF and bat leadoff if they believe he will develop. So I'm not sure if TB is really better trading partners.

[Seth Stohs]

Upton was going to be the first guy to sign, and once that happened, everyone had to re-adjust. As many have said, there are still teams that could be interested in Span. My guess is that Bourn will need to sign first. Also, the Braves are still a possibility for both Span and Willingham since they're planning to move Martin Prado into 3B from left field.

[Twins Twerp]

If Bourn doesn't sign in Washington, could Span be in their crosshairs. I would think the Nationals would bolster the best outfield in baseball with Span, Werth, something called Bryce Harper. Yikes.

 

I see the Reds as a legit team to deal with. If we could pull away a pitchin prospect and a SS I would be giddy with excitement. Pick one of: Cingrini(LH), Stephenson, or Corcino...and pair him with: Cozart, Hamilton, or Gregorius. Twins could throw in someone like Joe Benson or some other OF prospect not named Arcia, Hicks, or Buxton (or Rosario who may still end up in the OF).

 

Boom!!! Deal done son

[B Richard]

Panic? No.

 

The Bravos were the most appealing trade partner, but certainly not the only one capable of providing what the Twins are after. I know it's been pointed out already, but it's important to remember that one fewer CF on the open market should increase Span's relative value. Other teams may start to become more desperate- something that benefits the Twins greatly.

[ThePuck]

How does Upton deserve 15M a year...seriously? He's gotten steadily worse in CF, his OBP was sub .300 last year, he hasn't reached a .250 BA in 5 years.

 

Yeah, he's averaged 25Hr over the last two years and stolen some bases, but really? 15M a year?

 

WOW!

[Brock Beauchamp]

How does Upton deserve 15M a year...seriously? He's gotten steadily worse in CF, his OBP was sub .300 last year, he hasn't reached a .250 BA in 5 years.

 

Yeah, he's averaged 25Hr over the last two years and stolen some bases, but really? 15M a year?

 

WOW!

 

Joe Mauer at $23m per year doesn't look so bad when teams are giving $15m to 2.5 WAR players.

[SeanS7921]

Upton is a great deal for the Braves. They get his Prime years 28-32 he hit 28 HRS and stold 31 bases while playing solid defense. He didn't take pitches last year but has in the past. If that OBP goes back up very good performer.

I don't get how the Braves needed LOW salary though? 15 million isn't bad for Upton but it's still a lot of money. They wanted Span and Willingham together? That's the only way it's even close to 15 million they just shelled out and the years are off on that.

I doubt Span has that much value. They guy is always hurt and has no power. Solid year last year but again he was hurt. The two years before that big time question marks. Obviously what's being offered for him isn't that great at this point.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Upton is a great deal for the Braves. They get his Prime years 28-32 he hit 28 HRS and stold 31 bases while playing solid defense. He didn't take pitches last year but has in the past. If that OBP goes back up very good performer.

I don't get how the Braves needed LOW salary though? 15 million isn't bad for Upton but it's still a lot of money. They wanted Span and Willingham together? That's the only way it's even close to 15 million they just shelled out and the years are off on that.

I doubt Span has that much value. They guy is always hurt and has no power. Solid year last year but again he was hurt. The two years before that big time question marks. Obviously what's being offered for him isn't that great at this point.

 

Upton isn't a bad deal by any means. It's not a particularly good deal, either. He could rebound or he could continue to fade into his 30s. He doesn't get on base and that's a HUGE checkmark against him going forward.

 

Like many others, you're drastically underrating Span. The dude plays good defense at a premium position and gets on base 36% of the time. His lowest WAR in the past five years is 1.5 with most seasons bouncing between a 2.5 and 4+ WAR. That's a damned good player, doubly so if you have him locked up for three more seasons at a combined price of $20m (ie. 1 1/2 years of BJ Upton's new contract).

 

Upton has 4000 PAs and a 13.6 WAR. Denard has 2700 PAs and a 16.5 WAR.

 

edit: Interesting that FanGraphs doesn't like Span as much as BBRef while it loooooves Upton. Upton's career WAR is 23 and Span's 16 according to FG.

 

Either way, the two are comparable players (they just go about getting there very differently), only Span is less than half the price.

[darin617]

The Braves should still have interest in Span. They still lack a leadoff hitter and could put him in LF.

[biggentleben]

The Braves should still have interest in Span. They still lack a leadoff hitter and could put him in LF.

 

Upton would move to left, and they still have interest, but the Twins have reportedly been asking for Mike Minor or Kris Medlen.

[Mike Sixel]

Given their frugality, and that they just added 15million to their payroll, do you all really think they will add Span?

[biggentleben]

Given their frugality, and that they just added 15million to their payroll, do you all really think they will add Span?

 

Not now that he was traded for a minor league pitcher, but the Braves have $25-35M to play with.