Article: Cubs Signings Spell Trouble for Twins

[Nick Nelson]

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?1199-Cubs-Signings-Spell-Trouble-for-Twins

[Mike Sixel]

Only 1 more year? Where is the pitching in the minors in 2 years? If he isn't willing to sign players this year...why would we expect him to next year? If he shies away from the market, just imagine how bad he is going to view next year, when each team gets an additional $20-25MM and prices go up even more.....

[greengoblinrulz]

Rather spend $6m on Scot Feldman or Scot Baker for 1yr than get Sam Deduno or PJ Walters for 500K or Jason Marquis for $3m.

Not gonna get any value goin dumpster diving

[Nick Nelson]

mww - It's a fair point. If Ryan doesn't dive in this offseason there's little reason to think he will next year. I mean, if some teams are already throwing money around in anticipation of next year's TV windfall, it's only going to magnify when those revenues are actually realized.

 

When you think about it, this might be Ryan's last chance to get players signed at a remotely reasonable price before an era of across-the-board increased spending commences. (I also think that agents are currently trying to leverage this dynamic, which is why we've seen few signings and those have been on the high side.)

[glunn]

At these prices I worry that the Twins won't get anyone decent from the free agent market. It seems to me that we are looking at another losing year or three until some quality pitchers can come up from the minors and/or trading for prospects.

[Shane Wahl]

Leaves room for Marcum and others. So it isn't bad at all. Baker doesn't deserve that salary as a base and the Twins would have been foolish to offer it. What if Baker is injured again in ST and the Twins have sunk 11 million bucks between Baker and Blackburn????

[Nick Nelson]

Leaves room for Marcum and others. So it isn't bad at all. Baker doesn't deserve that salary as a base and the Twins would have been foolish to offer it. What if Baker is injured again in ST and the Twins have sunk 11 million bucks between Baker and Blackburn????

As I said, the bad news isn't necessarily that these guys got swooped away from the Twins. The bad news is that if they are getting contracts that the Twins would have been "foolish" to sign, what are the pitchers who actually have any sustained track record of durability or success going to get?

[twinsfaninsaudi]

It all seems to point towards the wise move being an all out youth movement and trading Span, Morneau, and Willingham, and even Mauer, for the best minor league pitchers they can get that will still be under team control when the Sano/Buxton/Berrios/Rosario era begins.

[Boom Boom]

Leaves room for Marcum and others. So it isn't bad at all. Baker doesn't deserve that salary as a base and the Twins would have been foolish to offer it. What if Baker is injured again in ST and the Twins have sunk 11 million bucks between Baker and Blackburn????

As I said, the bad news isn't necessarily that these guys got swooped away from the Twins. The bad news is that if they are getting contracts that the Twins would have been "foolish" to sign, what are the pitchers who actually have any sustained track record of durability or success going to get?

 

They're going to get contracts from teams other than the Twins. That hasn't changed.

[Curt]

Everyone needs pitching. It is a scarce commodity. It should come as no surprise that the price of mediocrity increases. It should come as no surprise that, if someone has the need and the money, they will spend what it takes. It should come as no surprise that low-bidders will lament the high cost when they are out-bid.

 

"I'm shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on here."

"Your winnings sir."

"Thank you very much."

[Rick Niedermann]

Have to agree with TwinsfaninSaudi that it appears the next chance for Twins competitiveness is 3 years down the road. I wanted to see the market first and hope that the Twins could get the quickfix done. But with the way things are shaking out, with the Cubs setting this market so high, it might be time to trade for high end prospects and hope it all that youth gels at the same time down the road. I'd sure miss Willingham and the prospect of him hitting one out. Sure fun to have that power threat in the lineup. But if your gonna lose 90+ games ya might as well sell high and bring in the kids.

[ThePuck]

At these prices I worry that the Twins won't get anyone decent from the free agent market. It seems to me that we are looking at another losing year or three until some quality pitchers can come up from the minors and/or trading for prospects.

 

Problem is, they aren't in our minor league system...so trades it is...

[dabecka]

Rather spend $6m on Scot Feldman or Scot Baker for 1yr than get Sam Deduno or PJ Walters for 500K or Jason Marquis for $3m.

Not gonna get any value goin dumpster diving

 

Easy to spend $6,000,000 when it isn't your money.

[Mike Sixel]

I disagree the market is already set too high. They can sign a 12 million guy, a 6million guy, and deal Span and a prospect for a legit prospect, and stay in their self imposed, too low, budget.

[beckmt]

Seeing what 6 million is bringing, do not know if I want a 6 million guy. Would rather sign Liriano back at 3 - 4- mil for one year and use the excess money to get a Marcum and a McCarty or a Jackson. And then make a trade for another starter.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

Have to agree with TwinsfaninSaudi that it appears the next chance for Twins competitiveness is 3 years down the road. I wanted to see the market first and hope that the Twins could get the quickfix done. But with the way things are shaking out, with the Cubs setting this market so high, it might be time to trade for high end prospects and hope it all that youth gels at the same time down the road. I'd sure miss Willingham and the prospect of him hitting one out. Sure fun to have that power threat in the lineup. But if your gonna lose 90+ games ya might as well sell high and bring in the kids.

 

Me too--throwing 6mill to mediocre pitchers is ridiculous. Trade off Span, Morneau, etc. for a few good pitching prospects and hope some come out of our current minor league crop and go for 2014 and 2015.

[Guest USAFChief]

I'm not sure which bothers me worse...that 3 years into a new stadium that the Twins "needed" to stay competitive (and which has been filled to virtual capacity) they are already making financial excuses, chopping payroll, and contributing nothing to stadium costs...or that many fans seem incredibly eager to embrace this course of action.

 

One more time: if they choose to do so, the Twins can handle a MLB payroll in the $125M range now, and more in the future, without losing any money. That they don't is because they CHOOSE not to, not because they CAN'T.

 

They can make a reasonable attempt to fix the 2013 team without damaging their chances in 2015. In fact, signing some decent pitching to multi year contracts has at least as good, and probably better chance of helping the 2015 pitching staff than does "trading off Span, Morneau etc for a few good pitching prospects" and hoping. They traded Santana for "a few good prospects." How'd that work out?

[Mike Sixel]

So people think 6 million is too much now, but think in 2 or 3 years, when salaries will he much higher, that the team should then sign guys to fill holes is confusing to me....or are people saying that if there are holes then they should not also sign free agents then?

[beckmt]

So people think 6 million is too much now, but think in 2 or 3 years, when salaries will he much higher, that the team should then sign guys to fill holes is confusing to me....or are people saying that if there are holes then they should not also sign free agents then?

I think the issue is not 6 mil a year, it is the difference between a Feldman and possibly a Marcum, McCarty or Jackson. I would would spend high and low (Liriano or Myers) then to spend middle for bad pitchers. Any cheap one year deal could work out. 6 Mil puts a hole in the Twins payroll if it does not work out. I think either Myers or Liriano would be an upgrade to Feldman and better than Baker who would not be ready before May at earliest, by that time Gibson could be ready.

[Nick Nelson]

Seeing what 6 million is bringing, do not know if I want a 6 million guy. Would rather sign Liriano back at 3 - 4- mil for one year and use the excess money to get a Marcum and a McCarty or a Jackson. And then make a trade for another starter.

 

I don't see any reason why Liriano would get less than Feldman in free agency, so I don't know that signing him will leave as much excess money as you're hoping for, but I still like him as a target.

[Jim H]

mike wants wins - Today, 09:29 AM

 

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I disagree the market is already set too high. They can sign a 12 million guy, a 6million guy, and deal Span and a prospect for a legit prospect, and stay in their self imposed, too low, budget.

 

Largely, I agree with this. I doubt if what the Cubs paid Feldman and Baker should have much effect on the Twins. If we go by what the Twins paid their starters last year, it is easy to suggest that there should be $20 million to perhaps as much as $30 million available for pitching this year. I would think that there should be room for multiple year contracts as well.

 

I have no idea exactly how Ryan will do it, but it would be nice to see 3 or 4 pitchers acquired. Keep in mind that if Span, Willingham or Morneau is traded, it also sheds salary, possibly freeing up more for pitching.

 

I do think that there should be room for a $12 million per year contract. It should be possible to spent around that much more for 2 or 3 more pitchers. Ryan maybe be able to acquire what he wants for less than that. He may spend a little more depending on what contract goes away in a trade. But, assuming that is what he has to work with, I don't think the Baker/Feldman contracts should have a huge impact on what Ryan can do.

[nicksaviking]

Does no one else find it disturbing that we are mostly in agreement that the Twins need to trade for starting pitching because free agency will eat up too much of the payroll? I mean, KC is even taking on large and terrible contracts.

 

We're basing our free agent predictions on the HOPE that the Twins payroll will be the same as last year while the other clubs, except for the crooks in Miami, look to be increasing payroll. San Diego is really the front funner for Dan Haren? Milwaukee, Baltimore and Seattle are taking a serious look at Josh Hamilton? It can't be long before the average MLB payroll is +$100 million and the Twins are once again at the back of the pack.

 

Edit: I realized it is early and we really have nothing to base a Twins 2013 payroll on other than assumption so I withdraw my complaint pending a payroll analysis among the other 29 teams come April.

[TheLeviathan]

People keep tossing around 12M. Right now Andy Pettite is signing a 1 year 12M deal. If you think you're getting a starting pitcher with injury problems for less than 4M - check what Ryan Madson got today.

 

Time to adjust your expectations people.

[Cris E]

Also, quit beating up on dumpster diving. It's not the way to fill all your needs, but Scott Diamond was a failed-but-kept Rule V. His record was nothing special but he turned out to be pretty good. Marquis sucked here, but his kid was seriously sick with something and he was hugely distracted. Later that summer he was what Ryan was hoping for when the deal was struck. Fledman constitues dumpter diving, frankly.

 

The team needs a #1 and #2 plus more, so in addition to a big trade or FA signing, and beyond a third or fourth look at Duensing and his pals, they need to keep dumpster diving to fill this roster.

[LaBombo]

Also, quit beating up on dumpster diving. It's not the way to fill all your needs, but Scott Diamond was a failed-but-kept Rule V. His record was nothing special but he turned out to be pretty good. Marquis sucked here, but his kid was seriously sick with something and he was hugely distracted. Later that summer he was what Ryan was hoping for when the deal was struck. Fledman constitues dumpter diving, frankly.

.

 

Marquis has been a bad pitcher for years, and he was a bad pitcher for San Diego, about equal to Deduno and worse than Devries. Given the Twins' stadium windfall and the resulting increase in available payroll, it seems entirely reasonable that people are getting tired of hearing about the kind of replacement-level punching bags the Twins are considering for next season.

[Shane Wahl]

I'm not sure which bothers me worse...that 3 years into a new stadium that the Twins "needed" to stay competitive (and which has been filled to virtual capacity) they are already making financial excuses, chopping payroll, and contributing nothing to stadium costs...or that many fans seem incredibly eager to embrace this course of action.

 

One more time: if they choose to do so, the Twins can handle a MLB payroll in the $125M range now, and more in the future, without losing any money. That they don't is because they CHOOSE not to, not because they CAN'T.

 

They can make a reasonable attempt to fix the 2013 team without damaging their chances in 2015. In fact, signing some decent pitching to multi year contracts has at least as good, and probably better chance of helping the 2015 pitching staff than does "trading off Span, Morneau etc for a few good pitching prospects" and hoping. They traded Santana for "a few good prospects." How'd that work out?

 

I agree completely. Especially given the drop in payroll going forward anyway. and the possibility of trading these players if need be for legit prospects (spending money on players does not mean that they cannot trade those players!).

[Shane Wahl]

I think what is going on is that there are teams willing to spend money now in order to get their organization in order and that there are going to be free agents signing for only marginal increases from last year's contracts. That said, throwing $16 million for two years of Marcum seems like an obvious good move and would seem to get him immediately . . . so I am not going to blame other teams for Twins' inaction here.

[Blake]

I think the market and the market will force the Twins to blow up the team and start from scratch.

 

By that I mean teams are signing players to outlandish contracts while it is very evident we're headed into another recession. When revenue starts dropping, how do these teams expect to cover expenses?

 

From a financial standpoint, I fully expect the Twins to move as much of their high priced talent as they can, for as many players as they can get, in order to better position themselves for the future.

 

Being a Twins fan for the next few years probably won't be any fun. Very likely, Diamond will turn into the Brad Radke of this decade.

[Jim Crikket]

I think the market and the market will force the Twins to blow up the team and start from scratch.

 

By that I mean teams are signing players to outlandish contracts while it is very evident we're headed into another recession. When revenue starts dropping, how do these teams expect to cover expenses?

 

From a financial standpoint, I fully expect the Twins to move as much of their high priced talent as they can, for as many players as they can get, in order to better position themselves for the future.

 

Being a Twins fan for the next few years probably won't be any fun. Very likely, Diamond will turn into the Brad Radke of this decade.

 

Apparently the people running sports cable networks don't expect the recession you're predicting, at least in terms of it affecting interest in Major League Baseball.

 

An additional $25 million in available revenues starting in 2014, without any expenses tied to it, will undoubtedly cause average salaries to go up considerably. That being the case, it shouldn't be surprising that so many teams are looking to lock in good players to multi-year contracts at today's salary levels, even if that's a bit more than it was last year. The Twins should be doing the same thing. Come 2014 and 2015, pitchers comparable to what Sanchez and Jackson are today are likely to be considerably more expensive. As contrary to conventional wisdom as it may seem, a 4-5 year contract for a good, if not great, starting pitcher may make a lot of sense this year.