The AL Central X Factors

[Cody Pirkl]

The Twins were undoubtedly favorites for a 162 game marathon. As we’re now looking at a sprint, their odds to win the division have fallen as you’ll see across all of baseball when it comes to heavily favored teams. Make no mistake though, the Twins roster is still superior on paper in nearly every way.No case needs to be made for Minnesota’s offense, as we all know what they’re capable of. There is simply too much firepower there for anything that goes wrong this season to be a direct result of the lineup. Instead I believe there will be two “X Factors” to consider league wide.

 

Competent Starters:

In a season where each loss is close to losing an entire series, losing streaks can be devastating. Cleveland has an impressive cast of stars at the head of their rotation with Clevinger, Bieber and Carrasco. However, they’re followed by Adam Plutko and maybe Jefry Rodriguez? Being so top heavy is dangerous when considering injury or poor performance. There’s simply no obvious answer to come in and save the day in Cleveland if needed, and their back end of the rotation is questionable at best.

 

Lucas Giolito broke out in 2019 and looks to improve for the White Sox. After him however you’ve got Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez, Dylan Cease and Reynaldo Lopez. I would firmly put anybody on this list 2-5 in the 4-5 spot in the Twins rotation. For replacements they have Kopech and Rodon returning from injury and are far from sure things to hold up in a rotation this soon after serious surgeries. Again we see plenty of questions with no obvious answers.

 

The Twins boast a solid 1-5 in Berrios, Odorizzi, Maeda, Hill and Bailey. In addition, Dobnak, Thorpe and Smeltzer are ready to roll whenever needed as well as Pineda returning mid season. It’s easy to say depth is mitigated in a 60 game season but in the case of starting pitching, an injury happening in 2020 without a viable replacement can sink the ship. In addition, the Twins glut of arms can piggyback to allow our starters to build up properly with guys like Dobnak being available to completely take over a spot if needed. The Twins should have all the tools they could ask for at their disposal to give themselves a chance to win every day on the mound.

 

Super Relievers:

2020 will be a constant fight to not let games get away from you, and that requires a relief corp with talent and experience. Cleveland has a great closer in Brad Hand, but their second best relief arm in 2019 is currently wearing a Twins jersey. They have arms that catch my eye such as James Karinchak but they otherwise boast a bullpen of arms with a lot to prove, especially after their prize for the Kluber trade, Emmanuel Clause failed a drug test and will serve a suspension.

 

Chicago has a decent closer in Alex Colomé and an even better setup man in Aaron Bummer. Jimmy Cordero looked great at times in 2019 as well. A signing of Steve Cishek in the offseason however does little to help the decline of Kelvin Herrera and the general shakiness of the rest of the Sox bullpen. They may look to use Kopech creatively with his high octane fastball, but this group still has a long way to go to be considered a top tier pen.

 

I’m biased, but it’s hard to imagine the Twins bullpen shaking out any better than it did this offseason. The trio of Rogers, Duffey and May that dazzled down the stretch in 2019 returns to lead a formidable group. Re-signing Sergio Romo simply needed to be done. Him being outside of your top three relievers is a good situation, not to mention the leadership and experience he brings. In addition, after stealing the Indians Central title, they decided to steal away a core piece of their bullpen in Tyler Clippard who had an impressive 2019. Add in young budding arms such as Stashak and Littell and the Twins should have a very strong core to finish off games. My hot take is that we’ll even be surprised by how strongly newly signed Matt Wisler performs.

 

2020 is going to be a season where you don’t want to look back on a game and say “That one got away from us”. With enough arms to ensure we can field a competent rotation indefinitely, the Twins should have the early innings of games covered. With as strong a trio as you could ask for in the pen backed up by more proven arms, late game leads should consistently end in wins. Pair that with a clearly superior offense, and the Twins should be universally superior to their competitors. Bring on the sprint. What do you think?

 

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[TopGunn#22]

I'm very excited about the potential of this bullpen.  The Twins have had some really good bullpen's in the past...2009 with Nathan the closer comes to mind.  but this crew looks to be REALLY solid.Power arms, nasty sliders, it is really one of the best in the majors.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Let me be the first to predict that the Twins will be undefeated in the 2020 -  60 game season

[mikelink45]

I love the enthusiasm and the home team bias.  Every bullpen is filled with players that no one outside the fan base knows - that includes ours.  Cleveland might be writing the same thing about the Twins that we are writing about them.  Bullpens are tough to analyze because performance in the pens is erratic from year to year.  

 

If the projection is that the starters will go less innings, the use of the BP arms will increase in frequency and length.  Who will stand up to this wear and tear?  

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/05/17/bullpen-workloads-increase-mlb-teams-are-struggling-find-relief/

 

I look forward to the year, if we can have all our players Covid free and actually playing the entire 60 games.

[ashbury]

Let me be the first to predict that the Twins will be undefeated in the 2020 -  60 game season

A little late, but the sentiment is appreciated.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/37857-5-twins-overunders-in-60-game-season/?do=findComment&comment=969832

 

[Joey P]

You forgot Chacin!

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

A little late, but the sentiment is appreciated.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/37857-5-twins-overunders-in-60-game-season/?do=findComment&comment=969832
 

 

A little late, but the sentiment is appreciated.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/37857-5-twins-overunders-in-60-game-season/?do=findComment&comment=969832
 

Congratulations ! It is true, you are # 1, Ashbury. I enjoy your posts. Just sign me, "Number Two" 

[Cody Pirkl]

 

I love the enthusiasm and the home team bias.  Every bullpen is filled with players that no one outside the fan base knows - that includes ours.  Cleveland might be writing the same thing about the Twins that we are writing about them.  Bullpens are tough to analyze because performance in the pens is erratic from year to year.  

 

If the projection is that the starters will go less innings, the use of the BP arms will increase in frequency and length.  Who will stand up to this wear and tear?  

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/05/17/bullpen-workloads-increase-mlb-teams-are-struggling-find-relief/

 

I look forward to the year, if we can have all our players Covid free and actually playing the entire 60 games.

I definitely understand the sentiment of being biased towards the Twins, fans of every team certainly do feel that way. I do however objectively feel like the Twins are far and away better positioned especially in the bullpen. We already had the breakouts, and in most cases like May and Duffey the metrics backed them up as studs.

 

It could play out where one of or both teams have those breakouts and the Twins falter, but the odds aren't in their favor given the ability our relief arms have already shown.