5 Twins Over/Unders in 60-game Season

[Nash Walker]

Back in May, we looked at Twins over/unders in an 82-game season. How about for the now-official 60-game season?Twins regular season games played: 59.5

 

Multiple players from multiple teams have already tested positive for COVID-19. MLB can plan as much as they want, but the virus remains a concern. The golden question looms: will the season be completed as scheduled?

 

Twins regular season wins: 37.5

 

I’m a bit more optimistic than Bovada, where the Twins are pegged at 34.5 wins. We are still waiting on the official schedule, but we know the Twins will play the Royals, Tigers, Indians and White Sox 10 times each. They will play six games against the Brewers and 14 combined games against the Cardinals, Pirates, Cubs and Reds. Baseball is full of randomness. How many games will the Twins win?

 

Ehire Adrianza plate appearances: 84.5

 

Adrianza got 1.47 plate appearances per game in 2019. In this 60-game season, that trend would give him around 87. How much rest will Rocco give Josh Donaldson, Jorge Polanco and Luis Arraez? Each game is worth 2.7 times more than in a normal season. Adrianza hit a solid .272/.349/.416 last year, but how much will he see the dish this summer?

 

Eddie Rosario’s primary batting order spot: 5.5

 

Much has been said about Rosario’s replaceable numbers. Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Brent Rooker and 15 others are chomping at the bit to play left field in Minnesota. This is a prove-it year for Eddie. Will he hit in the top or bottom half of Baldelli’s (somehow) improved lineup?

 

Taylor Rogers appearances: 20.5

 

Rogers pitched in 60 games for the Twins last year. He was too often used on back-to-back days as the Twins’ only reliable reliever in the first half. I believe the bullpen will be managed with October in mind. By bringing in Tyler Clippard to an already strong group, Baldelli and Wes Johnson have the flexibility to rest Rogers more often. Will they actually do it?

 

Where’s your money, Twins fans? Comment below!

 

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[Nine of twelve]

I'll take the under on all five. In each case I think there is a good chance that the actual number will turn out to be 0.

[Bandit34]

I see 32-28. Second place. 

[USNMCPO]

I see 40-20. Playing against the NLC and ALC divisions is an opportunity that can't be overlooked. Cleveland is still fairly good and Chicago is improved but KC and Detroit are ugly. The NLC is better on average but nothing outstanding.

[twinssporto]

I see 45-15. Trust me.

[Channing1964]

I have always liked Eddie Rosario as a player and a man. I have to say, it is kind of disturbing to hear Aaron Gleeman and others constantly insist we would be better off without him.(sorry Aaron i just listen to the podcast every single week) We all know the plate discipline analytics. The only time i remember anyone could say his defense was subpar was last year. Let us not forget he was hurt from sometime in June on, and he was asked to move to rf to make room for Araez bat. As a former outfielder i can guarantee it is not an easy transition from lf to rf. On top of that he still hit 30+ bombs and still 100+ rbi. Come on man! Who is ready to replace that? Cave? Wade? hell naw. Say what you want! Eddie Rosario is a valuable asset to this team. He came up with Every core player we have. To simply dismiss him is foolish. He is part of our Sano, Berrios, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, etc group.. just saying.

[DannySD]

48-12, and they'll break a bunch of records (with asterisks of course). 

[ashbury]

48-12, and they'll break a bunch of records (with asterisks of course). 

60-0, still falling short of the major league record for wins by 56.

 

(BTW, the major league record for Wins by a team playing exactly 60 games is 43. That was the 1873 Boston Red Stockings, precursor to today's Braves. Since only 6 teams in total have ever played that number, we're dealing with somewhat small sample size of course.)

[DocBauer]

I have always liked Eddie Rosario as a player and a man. I have to say, it is kind of disturbing to hear Aaron Gleeman and others constantly insist we would be better off without him.(sorry Aaron i just listen to the podcast every single week) We all know the plate discipline analytics. The only time i remember anyone could say his defense was subpar was last year. Let us not forget he was hurt from sometime in June on, and he was asked to move to rf to make room for Araez bat. As a former outfielder i can guarantee it is not an easy transition from lf to rf. On top of that he still hit 30+ bombs and still 100+ rbi. Come on man! Who is ready to replace that? Cave? Wade? hell naw. Say what you want! Eddie Rosario is a valuable asset to this team. He came up with Every core player we have. To simply dismiss him is foolish. He is part of our Sano, Berrios, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, etc group.. just saying.

 

I am also a huge Rosario fan. I have been since drafted and watching him through the system. There was an interesting OP, going back to ST if I recall correctly, concerning clutch production vs overall numbers. There have been arguments that "anyone" could have provided the same RBI totals in this lineup given opportunity. And maybe someone can remember and fin and post the OP link. But as I recall, the basis was Rosario, despite a weakened 2nd half of the season, still produced in high manner in RBI situations throughout 2019.

 

I CAN'T STAND him snatching at balls he grabs! He sometimes tries too hard to make something happen. And despite his ability to be a "bad ball" hitter and yet get a big hit or HR, he still lacks discipline at the plate that robs him of what he could still be.

 

All that being said, IMO, he is a fine OF who has battled a knee and shoulder problem each of the last 2yrs. Those injuries also robbed him of better offensive numbers that he could have produced, IMO, if fully healthy. I find it commendable for how much leadership Cruz is given for our team. But I think Rosario is not given enough props for his energy and instincts and production. But with all he does, there is still a feeling he could be even better.

 

I'd like him to stick around. I think he will for 2021. And I will miss him if gone, but you just can't deny the ability of guys like Larnach and Kirilloff for the future.

[D.C Twins]

 

I'll take the under on all five. In each case I think there is a good chance that the actual number will turn out to be 0.

Yes....there is certainly a chance that we are firmly in the 'bargaining' stage of grief as a country....perhaps a big chance...

[dxpavelka]

 

I have always liked Eddie Rosario as a player and a man. I have to say, it is kind of disturbing to hear Aaron Gleeman and others constantly insist we would be better off without him.(sorry Aaron i just listen to the podcast every single week) We all know the plate discipline analytics. The only time i remember anyone could say his defense was subpar was last year. Let us not forget he was hurt from sometime in June on, and he was asked to move to rf to make room for Araez bat. As a former outfielder i can guarantee it is not an easy transition from lf to rf. On top of that he still hit 30+ bombs and still 100+ rbi. Come on man! Who is ready to replace that? Cave? Wade? hell naw. Say what you want! Eddie Rosario is a valuable asset to this team. He came up with Every core player we have. To simply dismiss him is foolish. He is part of our Sano, Berrios, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, etc group.. just saying.

Some guys just bring something to the table that analytics can never measure.  It's called heart.  Eddie's that guy.
 

[SoylentWill]

I'll take the over on all except the Adrianza one. With less games, I would assume less rest for the starters, barring injuries of course.

[twinstalker]

The rest of the world likes Rosario better than the Twins do and the analytics do. Yet he has no market. What does that tell you?

[cjvirnig]

31-29, third place. 

[Channing1964]

The rest of the world likes Rosario better than the Twins do and the analytics do. Yet he has no market. What does that tell you?

i havent ever yeard if a concrete deal even being discussed. His value to us is of course higher that of other teams. What do you think you are going to get for him? Mathew Boyd? Any pitcher that is already in a rotation with way more team control is going to be valued higher than Rosario. Does that diminish his value to this team? You have to ask yourself who would replace him Right Now. Larnach? Kiriloff? Cave? Whybdont we put thevanalyticsbaway for a secondband realize that a first year player could never duplicate the numbers Rosario has put up since about 2015.

[Darius]

I have to say, I agree with the Rosario sentiment. Looks bad at times, but clearly thrives in big, late game moments.

 

I’ll take the under on the 5.5 for Rosario. Not any fault of Eddie, the lineup is just too damn good. Donaldson slots into the top 3 in the order. Garver should clearly be in position of prominence. If it were up to me, Sano would be in the 5 spot.

 

As far as wins go, give me the over. The Twins have the easiest schedule in the MLB.

[MN_ExPat]

31-29, third place.

Heresy!!!!

[DocBauer]

Over on Twins wins. Minimum 35, but I'm banking on 38 and the target should be 40. I would seriously have a target board of some sort in the locker room for fun and motivation ala Major League. I don't know if that's TC Bear in a bikini or the WS trophy, but have fun with it.

 

Under on Arraez AB. It may be a sprint, but Rocco will rest and rotate still. Barely under.

 

I'm taking the over on Rogers but his IP won't match the same pace as last year. Won't have to with a deep pen.

 

Not touching the Rosario debate, even though I think Rocco really likes him in the 4 hole. And while opinions vary, he produced there in 2019. In fact, he had a very high RBI conversion rate even with a lesser second half.

 

But honestly, can you build a poor lineup with this roster? A strong arguement can be made for Kepler and Polanco remaining at the top. But it's also very easy to argue Arraez filling one of those spots and dropping someone down. Does Donalson really hit 2nd? Or is he better with more runners on base? Yet, the bottom of the lineup should offer opportunity as well. Do you really want Donaldson, Cruz and Sano all in a row? Why not have Rosario breaking that group up? Or Kepler if he slides down and offering better contact than Rosario?

 

You see the quandary here. Guys like Garver and Rosario/Kepler could be hitting 7th and 8th and that is no insult, just a reflection of how deep the lineup is and what combination Rocco feels best with.

 

Personally, I've always liked the "stacking" approach where I have 2 guys at the top who can hit, get OB, provide a spark with pop/power and speed would be nice. Two guys who just set the table and wear out the pitcher. Kinda sounds like Arraez and Polanco doesn't it? And then you stagger Cruz, Donaldson, Sano, Rosario, Kepler and Garver before Buxton in the 9 spot.

 

A nightmare lineup for pitchers!