5 Reasons the Twins are a Good Bet to Succeed in a Shortened Season

[Patrick Wozniak]

As sports begin to ramp back up, so will MLB betting. Coming into 2020 the Minnesota Twins looked like a good bet to win the AL Central and beyond, but with a shortened season comes increased uncertainty. Fear not Twins territory; our team is built to succeed.On the surface, the variability of a 60-game season doesn’t seem to bode well for a team like the Twins whose talent would have more time to shine through over the length of a 162-game season. However, there are several reasons why the Twins are still a good bet. I’ll give you five.

 

1) This is the Bomba Squad!

 

The same line-up that gave us an MLB-record 307 dingers will be coming back in-tact. Sure they’re unlikely to hit 300-plus homers in 60 games (I’ll take the under if anyone’s interested), but there’s reason to believe that 2020’s lineup might be even more potent than last year’s record-setting squad. Having Luis Arraez from the get-go will certainly help, but the addition of Josh Donaldson could really bring the rings!

 

2) The Rotation Should Be Solid

 

While one could justifiably squabble that Minnesota doesn’t have a “true ace,” the rotation that they’ve built should bode well in a shortened season. An elite starter is obviously great to have, but an ace can still only pitch once every five days. The Twins already had a pretty solid core in Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, and Michael Pineda, and they’ve added Kenta Maeda and Rich Hill, both of whom are capable of ace-like stretches. Throw in Homer Bailey, Randy Dobnak, and Lewis Thorpe and the Twins are neck-deep in quality arms. In such a short season avoiding extended losing streaks will be crucial and the overall quality of the rotation should help to keep the Twins afloat.

 

3) The ‘Pen Could Be Great

 

The bullpen might not have the same name recognition of the Yankees, but they have the potential to be one of the best in all of baseball. With Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, and Trevor May, Rocco Baldelli has three late-inning weapons at his disposal. Throw in a few quality veterans in Sergio Romo and Tyler Clippard, along with a pair of exciting young arms in Zack Littell and Cody Stashak, and Minnesota has the makings of an elite bullpen.

 

4) The Twins Can Cash-in on Depth

 

In a 60-game season, an injury to a star player could be devastating for most teams. Minnesota can mitigate the loss of any one player both by having good players across the board and also by having incredible depth. If a position player goes down, the Twins have quality backup options in Marwin Gonzalez, Jake Cave and Ehire Adrianza. They also have a great farm system loaded with near MLB-ready bats that will be at their disposal in the form of a taxi squad.

 

The rotation is also well stocked in arms and a prospect such as Johan Duran could come in handy in the form of a starter or reliever should he be needed. The quantity of quality starters also gives Minnesota plenty of opportunity to get creative with the rotation size or methods such as piggy-backing to help erase the third-time through the order penalty that has historically hampered Odorizzi and Maeda.

 

5) The Central’s Not That Good

 

Minnesota will have an added advantage of playing the majority of their games against AL Central teams and the remainder against the NL Central. That means plenty of games against the likes of Detroit and Kansas City, and the NL Central, while filled with teams that should be decent (other than Pittsburgh), doesn’t contain any teams that hold a candle to the Twins in terms of overall talent. Not having to face teams such as the New York Yankees or the Houston Astros should greatly increase the Twins chances of reaching the postseason.

 

All in all, the Twins look to be a good bet regardless of the season’s length. Now all we need is a season!

 

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[jmlease1]

So what happens with Pineda's suspension? Is that pro-rated based on the relative length of the season?

[chinmusic]

How about an over/under for wins.

 

Let's hope that the standings (or season) are not dictated by the number of positive tests on any given team.

 

BTW- Last year the Twins hit an astounding 1.89 hrs / game. That rate would put them at around   113 this season, hypothetically.

 

Another big plus for the Twins...universal DH.

[Tom Froemming]

 

So what happens with Pineda's suspension? Is that pro-rated based on the relative length of the season?

There hasn't been any official word on that, but my completely unfounded guess would be any current suspensions are not altered in any way. 

[dex8425]

 

So what happens with Pineda's suspension? Is that pro-rated based on the relative length of the season?

Nope. He's only eligible for the final 21 games, and eligible for the postseason.

[rdehring]

Has there been any information regarding Smeltzer? Considering his medical history, he could be one who would opt out of the season.

 

Any word on the status of Romero's VISA? Also, is there any chance Sano will be restricted from leaving the D.R? 

[Tomj14]

 

Has there been any information regarding Smeltzer? Considering his medical history, he could be one who would opt out of the season.

 

Any word on the status of Romero's VISA? Also, is there any chance Sano will be restricted from leaving the D.R? 

Why would Smeltzer opt out? because he is cancer survivor?

I haven't seen anywhere that is a underlying condition at a higher risk?

[Trov]

The depth is the biggest plus the Twins will have.  Not only at the MLB level, but with expanded squads and taxi systems the MLB ready hitters will be helpful.  There will be positive tests, some teams already reporting that.  That means most likely 14 days at least before returning.  So not only small injuries having huge impact, missing 14 days, most likely 13 or 14 games is about a quarter of the season.  Depth and hot streaks will carry this season.  I could see if a guy is hot your ride him out, but second a slump hits you need a change.  No room for error. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

in a 60 game season, I'm guessing that health is going to be a much bigger X factor this year than most.

[jimbo92107]

We must flatten the curve before Twins hitters get to flatten curves. Please everybody wear masks and wash your hands so I can stop using comparisons like that!

 

Skol Twinkies!

[Darius]

Why would Smeltzer opt out? because he is cancer survivor?

I haven't seen anywhere that is a underlying condition at a higher risk?

Yeah, strange call-out of Smeltzer. A 24 year old world class athlete, with unlimited resources in terms of nutrition, healthcare, facilities, testing, monitoring, you name it. These guys fly charter jets half-way around the globe to have a small piece of connective tissue in the elbow examined.

[jmlease1]

 

Nope. He's only eligible for the final 21 games, and eligible for the postseason.

 

A  bit unfair. They should pro-rate his suspension too.

[mikelink45]

I like to look at lots of sources and see how our biased predictions compare with other biased predictions and https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29360566/mlb-predictions-thrive-struggle-60-game-season really does not respect our Twins, in fact we are only listed in the negative except for one prediction that Sano will lead in HRs. Otherwise it is East Coast and Los Angeles biased as usual. 

 

This is so volatile that I have not idea who will win or lose.  And of course Mighty Covid could still take all the bats away with the surge that is happening right now.  

[mikelink45]

 

A  bit unfair. They should pro-rate his suspension too.

Why?

[DocBauer]

Why?

 

My humble opinion despite not being the target of your question. And I have commented on this some time ago. Please understand I agree with punishment for breaking rules, whether deliberately done or not. But the punishment for Pineda was based on "normalcy". 80 games, then reduced as they believed his transgression was indeed accidental. Fine. But the punishment handed out was still based on a normal season. Terms of service time are being pro-rated for 2020 Despite it being a shortened season. Meaning 100% proration for service time despite what will now be less than half a full season. Pineda's suspension was originally half a season, or 50% of a season, carried out over 2019 and 2020. The lowering of his "sentence" comes out to approximately 43%, give or take. But with no proration for his punishment, he is now looking at something like 66% of games missed for 2020 ALONE. This doesn't even include games missed at the end of 2019. Combined, his punishment will now be well over 70% games penalized, which is not only more than his reduced number, but well over the original penalty guidelines.

 

Again, OK with punishment. But how can you "award" extra service time on a prorated basis for some but "over punish" someone else in regard to the same abbreviated situation?