Scott Baker Signs with Chicago Cubs

[LaBombo]

It's Epstein not Einstein, and don't forget the bottomless pit of cash factor.

 

So payroll guarantees not only regular season wins but playoff success? Good to know; seems I've read a bunch on this site and elsewhere that was wrong about those things.

[LaBombo]

The Cubs can afford to make this gamble, the Twins can't. Its just as simple as that, if the Twins spend $5.5 and has problems and pitches less then 50 innings it has a much larger impact on the Twins then it does on the Cubs. The Cubs need pitching and have the money to gamble on guys like Baker, the Twins don't have that luxury. Wouldn't be surprised if the Cubs traded him if he is having a decent season when the deadline happens.

 

Exactly. The Cubs didn't bring in Epstein just for a long, slow, bare-bones rebuilding project. He should have the kind of payroll flexibility that allows him to take a flyer on a guy like Baker and then, like you suggested, potentially flip him at the deadline if.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

 

The only team he was competing with for the successful part of his tenure was the Yankees who won it 9 straight years: 98-06. The rest of the division was really pathetic and easy wins for them. Then there is the random playoff winner/World Series that follows.

 

Actually that's two "RANDOM" World Series wins in his first five seasons as GM, sunshine. Maybe the Twins can find a lucky GM like that too someday. And if you think the AL East was a cakewalk during his best seasons, I think you're in the minority.

 

I never hinted at how many there were from what I wrote and I know the R. Sox won two, DUH. Calm down sweetheart, I could do without the derogatory nicknames. I don't see what I've said that's anger provoking at all. You should go ahead and read The Twins Binary article posted today if you want some facts about the playoffs. Like: being a 95 game winner versus an 85 game winner – affords a team almost no advantage in terms of advancing in the playoffs." coming from the .07 correlation of regular season wins to playoff ones. Get into the playoffs and you have just as good a shot as anyone to win the WS. The Blue Jays, Orioles, and Rays also had some of their worst seasons during the early 2000s and they had no where near the payroll as the Red Sox.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

It's Epstein not Einstein, and don't forget the bottomless pit of cash factor.

 

So payroll guarantees not only regular season wins but playoff success? Good to know; seems I've read a bunch on this site and elsewhere that was wrong about those things.

 

Generally, the more money spent on something, the better it is. It may not always be true if the cheap end of totem pole spent the money more wisely. If I go to the store and want to buy a camera. A $199 one would have more capabilities than a $79 one would; therefore, it would be better. Same holds true for baseball. I pay a player more money because he will do a better job. Common sense.

 

And where is the "guarantee" in twinsnorth49's quote. Seems like you are twisting his words...

 

There are reasonable posters on TD and then there are unreasonable ones. Guess where you belong?

[LaBombo]

I never hinted at how many there were from what I wrote and I know the R. Sox won two, DUH. Calm down sweetheart, I could do without the derogatory nicknames. I don't see what I've said that's anger provoking at all.

 

So you know he won two in five years. And it's still "random", as it pertains to his abilities as GM? Ok. Agree to disagree. And I apologize to you and all the other posters from the bottom of my heart for calling you sunshine.

 

I've read the Binary thread, and although I always respect John's takes on baseball, I disagreed with him and others in it. 85 wins doesn't get you $#!^, either getting to or winning in the playoffs the past 10 seasons.

 

Going back to the point of the thread, Epstein certainly has his work cut out for him with the Cubs. But if Cubs ownership is willing to accelerate the process with more payroll for gambles like Baker, Theo may return the Cubs to respectability sooner rather than later.

[gunnarthor]

 

The only team he was competing with for the successful part of his tenure was the Yankees who won it 9 straight years: 98-06. The rest of the division was really pathetic and easy wins for them. Then there is the random playoff winner/World Series that follows.

 

Actually that's two "random" World Series wins in his first five seasons as GM, sunshine. Maybe the Twins can find a lucky GM like that too someday. And if you think the AL East was a cakewalk during his best seasons, I think you're in the minority.

 

Well, from 03-05 the AL East only had two teams with winning records and each year it was NY and Bos. In 06 & 07, Toronto joined them. Boston fell to third in 06 and won it all in 07. After Tampa made the playoffs in 08, Boston only made the playoffs once. Boston spent more money than anyone except NY and had a lot of players associated with PEDs. Epstein tended to get too much credit and too much blame for what happened in Bos. He had resources that let him sign top free agents and create a strong draft/scouting group. He was able to offer arbitration to players going away so he got extra draft picks which gave him some great drafts (05) and not so great (06-07).

 

I find it comical that people would try and compare the 03-11 Red Sox with the Twins. The Twins had a far harder time making the post season, despite playing the Yankees 12 fewer times a year. Ryan was hamstrung by payroll for both the ML roster but also in the draft. Bad contracts were significant problems that he couldn't outspend. Chicago and Detroit had massive payroll advantages over us.

[PseudoSABR]

The Cubs must think he'll have some trade value by midseason, otherwise I don't really get it from their end. 5.5 guaranteed is excessive. The lack of option years is troubling. If this is the deal the Twins gave Baker, I'd hoped we'd be pretty upset.

[Top Gun]

Cubs signed RHP Scott Baker to a one-year, $5.5 million contract.

 

Patrick Mooney of CSNChicago.com passed along the contract details and adds that Baker could make an additional $1.5 million with incentives. It's a nice buy-low opportunity for Theo Epstein and company, as Baker is coming off Tommy John surgery and has enjoyed success in the past. The 31-year-old right-hander should be ready around the early part of the 2013 season if he can avoid setbacks. He could be an excellent trade chip for the Cubbies if he bounces back.

[twinsnorth49]

I never hinted at how many there were from what I wrote and I know the R. Sox won two, DUH. Calm down sweetheart, I could do without the derogatory nicknames. I don't see what I've said that's anger provoking at all.

 

So you know he won two in five years. And it's still "random", as it pertains to his abilities as GM? Ok. Agree to disagree. And I apologize to you and all the other posters from the bottom of my heart for calling you sunshine.

 

I've read the Binary thread, and although I always respect John's takes on baseball, I disagreed with him and others in it. 85 wins doesn't get you $#!^, either getting to or winning in the playoffs the past 10 seasons.

 

Going back to the point of the thread, Epstein certainly has his work cut out for him with the Cubs. But if Cubs ownership is willing to accelerate the process with more payroll for gambles like Baker, Theo may return the Cubs to respectability sooner rather than later.

 

I thought it wasn't about money?

 

Money doesn't buy championships, granted, but it sure helps to put a competitive team on the field that gives you a pretty good chance. GM's build/buy teams that can make the playoffs, whatever happens after that has very little to do with them or any other single factor.

[johnnydakota]

But wait. I thought the Twins had already signed him to a three-year deal?

 

Evidently the Cubs didn't check with thrylos98's source.

 

I heard talks broke down when Baker got wind of thrylos leaking inside information.

 

Seriously though, I'm bummed to hear that Baker left and even more bummed to hear that this is the going rate for pitching.

 

I don't think this is going to be the conventional thing we'll see. One has to think the Cubs overpaid quite a bit to pry him away from the Twins, seeing as how much he liked it here. I really don't mind losing him. He's a huge question mark after TJ and the Twins are not in a position to gamble rotation wise.

 

i read this as scott baker believes he has a better chance in 2013 to go to the playoffs with the cubs then with the twins, you see a patteren? nathan cuddy,kubel,thome,baker....the home town heros are bailing on this sinking ship.....

[johnnydakota]

There's a reason why the Cubs remain "the Cubs". Good luck to Scott Baker.

 

Theo Epstein is very likely smarter than anyone we have in our upper management...I have little doubt he'll turn that mess around

 

we can only dream of a front office as good as theo...instead we sit with the 3 stooges....

[johnnydakota]

There's a reason why the Cubs remain "the Cubs". Good luck to Scott Baker.

 

Theo Epstein is very likely smarter than anyone we have in our upper management...I have little doubt he'll turn that mess around

 

He did sign Lackey and Crawford ....

 

and Daisuke Matsuzaka.

 

Julio Lugo and Renteria.

 

look , your each complaining he signed several players...who did the twins sign....if you dont swing you dont hit a home run ....its better to have tried and lost then just sit on your thumbs hoping to recieve a bonus for reducing payroll...

[righty8383]

But wait. I thought the Twins had already signed him to a three-year deal?

 

Evidently the Cubs didn't check with thrylos98's source.

 

I heard talks broke down when Baker got wind of thrylos leaking inside information.

 

Seriously though, I'm bummed to hear that Baker left and even more bummed to hear that this is the going rate for pitching.

 

I don't think this is going to be the conventional thing we'll see. One has to think the Cubs overpaid quite a bit to pry him away from the Twins, seeing as how much he liked it here. I really don't mind losing him. He's a huge question mark after TJ and the Twins are not in a position to gamble rotation wise.

 

i read this as scott baker believes he has a better chance in 2013 to go to the playoffs with the cubs then with the twins, you see a patteren? nathan cuddy,kubel,thome,baker....the home town heros are bailing on this sinking ship.....

 

sinking?...you mean, sunken

[LaBombo]

gunnarthor- Come for the Baker signing discussion, stay for the Theo Epstein debate! We're not going to see eye to eye on Epstein, I think. You made some good points, as have others, about payroll and existing talent in Boston. But I still see a guy who GM'ed two World Series wins while still ten years younger or more than most rookie GM's. Pretty exceptional in my book, and I don't even like the Red Sox except when they're beating the Yankees or the Black Sox.

 

Back to Baker, sorry to see him go, but that seems spendy for such a high risk guy who figures to not even be ready until well into the season. But Epstein is probably getting more payroll to achieve faster results than Ryan will in Minnesota. As far as Baker the pitcher, I hope he can succeed enough in Chicago and elsewhere that he gives Twins fans reason to engage in yet another round of What Might Have Been.

 

On the other hand, Lohse has done well for himself in StL, and I still don't miss that guy....

[dave1406390226]

in ever assuming that at least one team wouldn't offer Baker gobs of money? The Twins need to start almost from scratch. Tying up more than $1million on a chronically injured pitcher would have been crazy.

[beckmt]

I do not think Baker signing with the Cubs was about the Twins or winning chances. It was about the money and the ability to market himself next year. Twins may have to move faster and spend more than they want to improve for next year. Other clubs seem to be doing this.

[TwinsFanInPhilly]

No surprise. And the chorus begins in justification of the twins not signing him. That chorus will be repeated player after player. To sign a legit free agent, you need to overpay.

 

No surprise you commenting on the other commenters rather than the actual article itself. So predictable. Why don't you tell us if you would have paid more for Baker. Personally, I wouldn't.

[ThePuck]

 

The only team he was competing with for the successful part of his tenure was the Yankees who won it 9 straight years: 98-06. The rest of the division was really pathetic and easy wins for them. Then there is the random playoff winner/World Series that follows.

 

Actually that's two "random" World Series wins in his first five seasons as GM, sunshine. Maybe the Twins can find a lucky GM like that too someday. And if you think the AL East was a cakewalk during his best seasons, I think you're in the minority.

 

Well, from 03-05 the AL East only had two teams with winning records and each year it was NY and Bos. In 06 & 07, Toronto joined them. Boston fell to third in 06 and won it all in 07. After Tampa made the playoffs in 08, Boston only made the playoffs once. Boston spent more money than anyone except NY and had a lot of players associated with PEDs. Epstein tended to get too much credit and too much blame for what happened in Bos. He had resources that let him sign top free agents and create a strong draft/scouting group. He was able to offer arbitration to players going away so he got extra draft picks which gave him some great drafts (05) and not so great (06-07).

 

I find it comical that people would try and compare the 03-11 Red Sox with the Twins. The Twins had a far harder time making the post season, despite playing the Yankees 12 fewer times a year. Ryan was hamstrung by payroll for both the ML roster but also in the draft. Bad contracts were significant problems that he couldn't outspend. Chicago and Detroit had massive payroll advantages over us.

 

So what you're saying is, you think we have people in our front office smarter than Epstein?

[RodneyKline]

I think it was a huge mistake for this team to release Nathan, Liriano and now Baker. We got virtually nothing for these guys. Wouldn't it make sense to sign them to three year contracts instead of declining their option (or trading Liriano at his lowest trade value point). Then trade them if you don't think they are showing enough value to deserve what you are paying them. At least we either get value out of them or trade for value. We are DESPERATE for pitching and Ryan is too cheap to get front line starters. We now need 1, 2, 4 & 5 starters (assuming Diamond is a 3). Big mistake letting these three go in my opinion. Ryan will never sign or trade for 4 starters. Baker could come back as a #2 but count on him as #4 or #5 for this year, Liriano could be a #4 or 5 and Nathan could be the closer if he wasn't already gone to TX. Perkins is a good set up guy but he is not a closer. Too many home runs in critical situations. Ryan could then get a #1 and a #2 starter and he is done. Bottom line: TR needs to step up and sign Greinke to a long term deal. Over pay for him but tell every other free agent player that the Twins are serious about building a starting rotation that can win plus a team that could go worst to first. I am tired of hearing about the payroll. We built them the stadium and their part of the deal is to build a winner. It was not to build the best team on a budget, it is the best team period. The Pohlad's have plenty of money and I have never heard them say (in public anyway) that there is a limit on what Ryan can spend. He puts that on himself.

[PseudoSABR]

 

i read this as scott baker believes he has a better chance in 2013 to go to the playoffs with the cubs then with the twins, you see a patteren? nathan cuddy,kubel,thome,baker....the home town heros are bailing on this sinking ship.....

It's no surprise that you would "read" Baker not signing with the Twins as part of the narrative you continue to promote: that Twins are awful. No one's surprised or impressed with your "reading." Baker probably went after the money. If he was concerned about winning, he'd have signed somewhere other than with the Cubs. Obviously.

[nokomismod]

I would have been happy to have 'Shake n Bake' back, but not at that price. Bill Smith might have spent $5-6 million to bring back Baker, but I think we are seeing a return to the Shrewdinator (aka Terry Ryan), who will pass on bad deals in favor of more club friendly ones. If we have another off season like last one, only this time with the focus on starting pitching, we will be a pretty decent ball club.

[Seth Stohs]

Nice article by Phil Mackey about the Baker signing/loss: http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Mackey_Baker_wanted_deal_before_Oct_but_Twins_likely_wise_to_pass111312

[ThePuck]

First, let me say, I didn't care if Baker signed with us or not...not one bit.

 

Having said that, we need starters...we need three good-great starters....they cost money/good players (or both). Ryan isn't gonna 'break the bank' for pitching. So, we're looking at dumpster diving free agent SPs (as is the norm or us), or couple trades...

 

...cause he's not gonna spend big, he's just not.

[nicksaviking]

I would have been happy to have 'Shake n Bake' back, but not at that price. Bill Smith might have spent $5-6 million to bring back Baker, but I think we are seeing a return to the Shrewdinator (aka Terry Ryan), who will pass on bad deals in favor of more club friendly ones. If we have another off season like last one, only this time with the focus on starting pitching, we will be a pretty decent ball club.

 

I would hope that is always his intention, however the problem arises when the other 29 teams also get pitcher fever and there are no more team friendly deals for useful free agent starters.

[Mike Sixel]

I had previously posted I would sign Baker to a two year, incentive laden deal. Btw, fair criticism of my post, but it was not aimed at the posters here, that is the consensus I read or heard elsewhere also, but it did come across wrong. Apologies.

 

I think the Cubs overpaid, but I also believe the only way to sign the better players is to overpay. Baseball owners know this, so if they will not do that, why buy a team? Most every free agent that is likely to be good will be overpaid.

[Riverbrian]

I had previously posted I would sign Baker to a two year, incentive laden deal. Btw, fair criticism of my post, but it was not aimed at the posters here, that is the consensus I read or heard elsewhere also, but it did come across wrong. Apologies.

 

I think the Cubs overpaid, but I also believe the only way to sign the better players is to overpay. Baseball owners know this, so if they will not do that, why buy a team? Most every free agent that is likely to be good will be overpaid.

 

I agree with this... Overpay on someone else is my thinking?

[beckmt]

Twins will have to overpay to get pitching. Shawn Marcum, Anibel Sanchez, and others are better bets. Do not think Sanchez will want to come here, but there are other options, issue is you either have to make trades or sign the other options. Clubs do not seem to be waiting for the market to shake out or see who will not be tendered a contract. I believe the Twins have to sign(and probably overpay) a decent pitcher to come here or the market will pass the Twins by as being illrelevent. Then they will really have to overpay to get a player or pitcher to come here. Is this uncomfortable, yes, but doing nothing is not an option if TR wants to fill seats next year. Trading Span and others for pitching prospects may be the better way to go, but that might be one step back before moving forward. That could cripple the Twins payroll for years after 2014 and the hype of the All Star Game has worn off. Best line is to sign some pitchers and then flip them at the deadline for prospects if it does not work out. Playroll may have to go back to about $100 million for this to work, but I now feel the numbers in the Twins Handbook may be low for pitchers, I hope not, but that is the way it is trending. In this case you may have to spend money to make money.

[ThePuck]

I'm optimistic for 2014, 2015 time frame with the young guys coming up...

 

I'm just not sold on the Twins (meaning ownership, the FO and so on) being interested in putting a true WS contending team together. For the last decade and change, all they've ever seemed interested in is building a team to be competitive within the division....and the couple seasons where they were truly very good (2006 and 2010) were followed up with offseasons not worked to put us over the the hump, but worked to downgrade us because, hey, we were SO good, we can afford to downgrade some while still being competitive in the division.

 

 

Didn't work either time...

[iastfan112]

i read this as scott baker believes he has a better chance in 2013 to go to the playoffs with the cubs then with the twins, you see a patteren? nathan cuddy,kubel,thome,baker....the home town heros are bailing on this sinking ship.....

 

we can only dream of a front office as good as theo...instead we sit with the 3 stooges....

 

look , your each complaining he signed several players...who did the twins sign....if you dont swing you dont hit a home run ....its better to have tried and lost then just sit on your thumbs hoping to recieve a bonus for reducing payroll...

 

Gaze at the power of the multi-quote, a useful too that allows you to respond to multiple points without spamming the board with multiple posts on your part.

 

PS- People might take you more seriously if you at least attempted to follow conventions of the English language. Things such as capitalization, punctuation and grammar count, even on the web.

[jharaldson]

The article today from Mackey, who is usually very good, was just ridiculous. Here is his evaluation from today:

 

"Baker will be guaranteed $5.5 million with a chance to earn an extra $1.5 million in performance incentives. ...

Passing on Baker was probably the right decision for the Twins"

 

http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Mackey_Baker_wanted_deal_before_Oct_but_Twins_likely_wise_to_pass111312

 

Here is his recommendation from his OWN plan to fix the Twins just 2 weeks ago:

 

"Bring back Scott Baker on an incentive-laden deal. Baker ... perhaps $3-4 million base with an extra $4 million in incentives."

 

http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/How_to_fix_the_Twins_Part_3_Could_Braves_Rays_be_good_trade_fits103112

 

P-Mac says it is a great idea to sign him to a minimum $4 million, maximum $8 million contract but suddenly it is a bad idea to sign him to a minimum $5.5 million, maximum $7 million contract? This is effectively the same contract with a little more risk on the downside and a little more return on the upside.

 

Next P-Mac said the following:

 

"Baker's departure should not come as much of a shock."

 

http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Mackey_Baker_wanted_deal_before_Oct_but_Twins_likely_wise_to_pass11

 

Baker said in September he would like to be back. Ryan said in October they would like ot have him back. After they declined his option they still said they wanted him back. P-Mac and virtually every offseason blueprint I have seen this in the past month have pretty much assumed a 1 year deal with incentives. To say that Baker not being on this team in 2013 is not a shock is just not a credible statement.