Article: Pickin' Berrios

[kab21]

Pedro Martinez was only 5ft 11 inches , hope berrois at an even 6 foot is a better pitcher =)

 

This is a good joke. I really am laughing.

[Badsmerf]

So, you think Berrios will fizzle out in Double-A?

 

Not at all. I'm pretty high on him, but need to see more success at higher levels before getting carried away. Were you following the minors while Garza was coming up with the Twins? Different scenario completely, but Garza destroyed every level of the minors and is simply an above average pitcher with an attitude problem now. My point is, domination in the minors (especially rookie ball) doesn't mean a player is going to hold down a roster spot for 10 years. What kab and I are saying, is there are too many examples of prospects that have everyone raving and then drop off the map. Keep expectations realistic for these kids.

 

That said, I love Berrios. He has #2 upside and sounds like a good kid and hard worker. At this point we've only heard positive things about him. If he continues to develop he will no doubt land in the top 100 prospects soon, probably had a shot this year.

[mnfanforlife]

Thanks for your opinions on Berrios. And kab21, I am sincerely sorry if any of my posts have offended you in any way.

 

As for your accusation of me having "super high optimism" about Jose's projections....I have posted several of my 2015 Twins pitching rotations on this site, and none of them have Berrios as our #1 or #2 starter. So, I definitely agree he is probably not an ace (even by Twins' standards). But until he actually does struggle in the minors, I will be hopeful he proves all the doubters wrong and becomes an MLB-caliber ACE. I see nothing wrong with that.

 

Am I thinking critically about him? not so much, but I doubt that J. Berrios sees himself as a #3 starter. He surely wants to be #1, and he is really the most influential person on this topic of projection. Not you, or me, or any scout out there.

[kab21]

If Berrios is even in your 2015 rotation you are way too optimistic.

 

I'm not offended by your optimism but I think that you are setting yourself up disappointment. I also don't others to go overboard on Berrios because they start seeing Kershaw's, Pedro's and Felix's name in the thread. Regardless of what he did in rk ball he is nothing like them. It's pretty unlikely that even Dylan bundy (the best pitching prospect in baseball) even matches what they've done in the majors.

[mnfanforlife]

If Berrios is even in your 2015 rotation you are way too optimistic.

 

I'm not offended by your optimism but I think that you are setting yourself up disappointment. I also don't others to go overboard on Berrios because they start seeing Kershaw's, Pedro's and Felix's name in the thread. Regardless of what he did in rk ball he is nothing like them. It's pretty unlikely that even Dylan bundy (the best pitching prospect in baseball) even matches what they've done in the majors.

 

Sounds like youre a "I'll believe it when I see it" kinda guy. And that's fine! Nothing wrong with wanting a prospect to prove himself through the levels of the minor leagues. But let me point something out.....Buxton's Rookie ball production did not look great on paper. Yet, Bux was chosen by Base. Amer. as the #1 prospect in both rookie leagues.

 

Berrios was not nearly as highly-touted as Byron, but his rookie numbers were ridiculous. I know, we are talking about rookie stats. My question for you....if Bux is going to be compared to anyone named Upton, then who can we compare Berrios to?

 

Hey, I may be disappointed if Berrios doesn't become an MLB #3, but I can certainly hope for more than that from him. I am NOT AFRAID TO BE DISAPPOINTED ABOUT ANY BASEBALL PROSPECT. Please let me dream.

[mnfanforlife]

I threw the name Lincecum out there based on body type and "stuff" And...I agree that Kershaw and King Felix are poor comparisons for Berrios. Pedro Martinez is a better comparison as far as body-type. But nobody that is sane would predict Berrios' MLB production would even approach Pedro or Lincecum for that matter.

[kab21]

I wouldn't consider myself a "I'll believe it when I see it" kinda guy. I would consider myself someone that isn't going to drool over 30 innings of rk ball numbers. you try to concede that point but then go on about Buxton's numbers did not look great. The reason that he is a great prospect is that his scouting reports say that he has Upton (more BJ than Justin) tools and the legitimate potential to be a multiple all-star. That's why he's ranked #1 in both leagues. Of course he could flame out in AA still because he hasn't done much yet.

 

Please elaborate on how Berrios is anything like Lincecum other than he is short. This is the trap that many fall into when they want to hype up a short pitching prospect. Berrios is a very good prospect and he was an excellent value where the Twins got him but his scouting reports and rankings do not come close to matching the hype that you are throwing out there. I haven't seen a name comp attached to Berrios yet but name comps usually look silly 5 years later. What I have seen is that most have attached a mid rotation starter tag to him so dream reasonably.

[mnfanforlife]

I wouldn't consider myself a "I'll believe it when I see it" kinda guy. I would consider myself someone that isn't going to drool over 30 innings of rk ball numbers. you try to concede that point but then go on about Buxton's numbers did not look great. The reason that he is a great prospect is that his scouting reports say that he has Upton (more BJ than Justin) tools and the legitimate potential to be a multiple all-star. That's why he's ranked #1 in both leagues. Of course he could flame out in AA still because he hasn't done much yet.

 

Please elaborate on how Berrios is anything like Lincecum other than he is short. This is the trap that many fall into when they want to hype up a short pitching prospect. Berrios is a very good prospect and he was an excellent value where the Twins got him but his scouting reports and rankings do not come close to matching the hype that you are throwing out there. I haven't seen a name comp attached to Berrios yet but name comps usually look silly 5 years later. What I have seen is that most have attached a mid rotation starter tag to him so dream reasonably.

 

I am guilty of player comp's...its how I discuss prospects. Comparing minor leaguers to established guys is really not fair to both players. But it is a good way to describe a player that has not been exposed on a national level. And yes, they can look silly down the road.

 

Berrios resembles Lincecum in my mind because they are both about the same height/weight. Both have fastballs that tail in to right-handed hitter, and when Lincecum was younger he was mid-90's like Berrios is now. Both feature two solid off-speed offerings (Lincecum the split and curve, Berrios the slurve and change).

 

Timmy was a high-expectations college draftee while Berrios was simply an exceptional high school arm. At 22 years old, Lincecum dominated A+ and the giants elected to skip him up to AAA to begin the next season. After 5 starts in AAA as a 23-yr-old, Lincecum was promoted and won two Cy-Youngs.

 

I am NOT saying Berrios is going to win a Cy Young award. What I am saying is that time will tell us all what we should expect from him. He is slightly ahead of the Tim Lincecum schedule if he starts in low-A, since Timmy went to college. So, we will have to be very patient while berrios works his way up to A+...that level of play will tell us alot about what we have. Hopefully he starts in Cedar Rapids right away this spring and we get a look at him in the FSL (a real league) in 2013.

[ashbury]

He is slightly ahead of the Tim Lincecum schedule if he starts in low-A, since Timmy went to college.

 

This is what makes it hard to use Timmy as a comp - they start off on very different timetables, and always will be because of the rules surrounding Rule-5 drafts and so on.

[mnfanforlife]

This is what makes it hard to use Timmy as a comp - they start off on very different timetables, and always will be because of the rules surrounding Rule-5 drafts and so on.

 

Yes, I admit its not fair to berrios or timmy. But they are quite similar in body-type and pitching "stuff"..beyond that they do not compare favorably since their paths to the bigs will be so different. berrios will probably not skip a single level on his way to MN, while Timmy was already seasoned when the Giants got him at #10 overall.

[Willihammer]

An interesting study on pitcher height and its correlation with durability and effectiveness: Does a Pitcher?s Height Matter? | SABR

 

The data speak for themselves. Baseball organizations have been scouting, signing, and developing players based on a fallacious assumption. Shorter pitchers are just as effective and durable as taller pitchers. If a player has the ability to get drafted, then he should be drafted in the round that fits his talent.

The opportunity for major-league clubs is currently at its greatest potential. Clubs that value short pitchers with talent have an opportunity similar to those of clubs that, a decade or more ago, valued on-base percentage at a time when many of their competitors did not.

 

[mnfanforlife]

Sho' 'Nuff Willihammer! Thank you for posting!!

[drjim]

By being unafraid to draft short pitchers in high rounds the Twins once again prove they are at the cutting edge of statistical analysis!

[ashbury]

Yes, I admit its not fair to berrios or timmy. But they are quite similar in body-type and pitching "stuff"..beyond that they do not compare favorably since their paths to the bigs will be so different. berrios will probably not skip a single level on his way to MN, while Timmy was already seasoned when the Giants got him at #10 overall.

 

JO is slightly taller and weighs more than Lincecum already, and he's not even reached his 19th birthday so he could fill out some more, maybe even grow another inch taller. And since their paths shape up to be so different, isn't there some other pitcher with similar body-type and stuff to use for the comp?

 

Matt Moore is listed as 6'2" and 205 today, quite a lot smaller in stature than the Verlanders and Prices of the world - when he was signed as an 18-year-old I wonder if he profiled all that differently from JO today. Moore had a nice introduction in the Appalachian League as an 18-19 year old, and he turned out all right. I don't know what kinds of pitches Moore throws, versus Berrios, though - so maybe he's a poor comp.

 

How about Gio Gonzalez? 6'0" and 200, also hot stuff in the Appy League when 18 - is/was his stuff comparable?

[kab21]

The Timmy comp is just silly. RH'ers with fastballs that tail in to righties? 2 secondary offerings that are different from Timmy? Couldn't you comp half of the RH pitching prospects to Timmy using this criteria?

 

As a matter of fact this whole thread is silly. If Berrios is what you say he is then he should ranking in top 25 lists right now. Even you put him at #6 on your 2014 list that doesn't include Hicks, Arcia and Gibson.

[mnfanforlife]

JO is slightly taller and weighs more than Lincecum already, and he's not even reached his 19th birthday so he could fill out some more, maybe even grow another inch taller. And since their paths shape up to be so different, isn't there some other pitcher with similar body-type and stuff to use for the comp?

 

Matt Moore is listed as 6'2" and 205 today, quite a lot smaller in stature than the Verlanders and Prices of the world - when he was signed as an 18-year-old I wonder if he profiled all that differently from JO today. Moore had a nice introduction in the Appalachian League as an 18-19 year old, and he turned out all right. I don't know what kinds of pitches Moore throws, versus Berrios, though - so maybe he's a poor comp.

 

How about Gio Gonzalez? 6'0" and 200, also hot stuff in the Appy League when 18 - is/was his stuff comparable?

 

I am not really liking comparing Berrios to any lefties, or anyone that weighs 200 lbs or greater. Maybe you can compare stats, but I am talking more about what he looks like on the mound and his "stuff." I don't know. I admitted the Timmy comparison was not fair, or great for that matter.

 

Let me see.....

[mnfanforlife]

This video clip:

....reminds me of the pitching motion of Zack greinke, but zack is more over-the-top than berrios.

[ashbury]

I am not really liking comparing Berrios to any lefties, or anyone that weighs 200 lbs or greater.

 

If baseball-reference.com lists a guy at 200 now, I assume he weighed a good 10-20 pounds less as an 18-year old. May be a bad assumption. As for the lefty-righty thing, yeah, that was a bad oversight - obviously I was just spitballing some names and looking them up, and forgot to check handedness. Maybe Greinke is a decent comp in terms of size - hopefully not in his introverted makeup though.

[mnfanforlife]

If baseball-reference.com lists a guy at 200 now, I assume he weighed a good 10-20 pounds less as an 18-year old. May be a bad assumption. As for the lefty-righty thing, yeah, that was a bad oversight - obviously I was just spitballing some names and looking them up, and forgot to check handedness. Maybe Greinke is a decent comp in terms of size - hopefully not in his introverted makeup though.

 

That's for sure. We don't need a guy that can't handle the pressure of pitching in the majors. But Greinke has been All-Star worthy for quite some time now...If Berrios approaches the level of Zack, then he was steal at #32 overall.

[jimbo92107]

Doesn't throw quite as hard as Greinke, but Berrios is going to be a major pitching star.

 

 

Look at his poise on the mound, the alertness, the command. I see some Greinke, but his delivery doesn't look very hard on his arm. Berrios just needs to throw a few thousand more pitches to hone his form, get better accuracy. With his athletic balance on the mound, it will definitely happen. He'll be picking the corners with that slider in the major leagues within three years.

[mnfanforlife]

Doesn't throw quite as hard as Greinke, but Berrios is going to be a major pitching star.

 

 

Look at his poise on the mound, the alertness, the command. I see some Greinke, but his delivery doesn't look very hard on his arm. Berrios just needs to throw a few thousand more pitches to hone his form, get better accuracy. With his athletic balance on the mound, it will definitely happen. He'll be picking the corners with that slider in the major leagues within three years.

 

Couldn't agree more! I like your optimistic energy, and enthusiasm