Article: Pickin' Berrios

[Physics Guy]

He should start in Cedar Rapids. If he earns it, he will be promoted to Ft. Myers mid-season. That gives him a shot at New Britain sometime the following season. We'll be lucky if he gets a cup of coffee at Target Field by 2015.

[Mike Sixel]

Right, he's 3-4 years out, minimum. Agreed.

[Shane Wahl]

Jose stayed in my home while in Elizabethton. He is polite and easy to get along with. He doesn't eat shrimp and he really likes cookie and cream ice cream. (two very important things for a host mom to know!) Good luck Jose!! You will go far.

 

Cool inside information about our best pitching prospect! Thank you for sharing! Do you know if Jose is coming back to live with you next summer?

 

I don't know. I'm going to spring training in March ( i still have about 30 "baseball sons" in the organization). I try to get all of them out to dinner. We have to work around English lessons! I usually have a list of 13 or so that want to stay here if they come to Elizabethton. I find out about 4 or 5 days before they get on the bus in fort myers who is going to be here.

 

There really ought to a story written about you and the other host families for these guys.

[ThePuck]

why are so many fans completely content to say a pitcher drafted as high as Berrios was will take 4 or more years in the minors to make it to the show? If he's as awesome as so many claim, why take that long?

[PseudoSABR]

If he's as awesome as so many claim, why take that long?

The potential for awesomeness doesn't equate to immediate awesomeness.

[kab21]

Need should not dictate lower level promotions. He should be promoted when he is ready.

 

Are you suggesting that he is not ready to be promoted past rookie ball? What level do you think Berrios is "ready" for? What constitutes being "ready" in your opinion? If you use statistics to measure "readiness", than where would Berrios' stats place him next year, in your opinion?

 

He's absolutely ready for Cedar Rapids. I'm disagreeing with the general notion that he needs to be fast tracked because the Twins have a need at pitcher. Many in this thread are suggesting that he should get to Ft Myers next season and start 2014 in NB. Perhaps that could happen but let's see what he does in full season ball before we start promoting him beyond Cedar Rapids.

[mnfanforlife]

why are so many fans completely content to say a pitcher drafted as high as Berrios was will take 4 or more years in the minors to make it to the show? If he's as awesome as so many claim, why take that long?

 

Realistically: he should start 2013 in low-A, finish 2013 in A+, then start 2014 in A+ with a shot to finish in AA or higher.

[jtrinaldi]

Berrios will be in CR around May

Buxton in June

Kepler/Goodrum to start

[Top Gun]

The Twins are considering Kyle Gibson for their Opening Day rotation.

 

Gibson is almost fully recovered from Tommy John surgery and finished with 75 innings between the regular season and Arizona Fall League. With only Scott Diamond returning to next year's rotation, there's little upside for the Twins to stash him if he's still healthy in spring training. Earlier this offseason, GM Terry Ryan said he expects Gibson to be limited to 140 innings in 2013.

 

 

Source: ESPN 1500 Twin Citie

[Mike Sixel]

I will not speak for others, but I am posting what I think is likely to happen, not what I would do.

[ThePuck]

why are so many fans completely content to say a pitcher drafted as high as Berrios was will take 4 or more years in the minors to make it to the show? If he's as awesome as so many claim, why take that long?

 

Realistically: he should start 2013 in low-A, finish 2013 in A+, then start 2014 in A+ with a shot to finish in AA or higher.

 

That didn't really answer my question...

[ThePuck]

If he's as awesome as so many claim, why take that long?

The potential for awesomeness doesn't equate to immediate awesomeness.

 

So yet another high draft pick we'll wait 5 of more years for...and everyone seems okay with that.

[Mike Sixel]

I do not think everyone is ok with that...but not sure what we can do about it either...

[PseudoSABR]

If he's as awesome as so many claim, why take that long?

The potential for awesomeness doesn't equate to immediate awesomeness.

 

So yet another high draft pick we'll wait 5 of more years for...and everyone seems okay with that.

Five years? Three to four for a highschooler is completely normal, dude.

[ThePuck]

If he's as awesome as so many claim, why take that long?

The potential for awesomeness doesn't equate to immediate awesomeness.

 

So yet another high draft pick we'll wait 5 of more years for...and everyone seems okay with that.

Five years? Three to four for a highschooler is completely normal, dude.

 

Some are saying he's still 3-4 years out, minimum...

[sorney]

If he's as awesome as so many claim, why take that long?

The potential for awesomeness doesn't equate to immediate awesomeness.

 

So yet another high draft pick we'll wait 5 of more years for...and everyone seems okay with that.

Five years? Three to four for a highschooler is completely normal, dude.

 

Some are saying he's still 3-4 years out, minimum...

 

If he doesn't blow out his arm, or doesn't stall out vs better competition.....

[righty8383]

I think he will continue to dominate and make his debut at the age of 20. (he turns 21 in May, 2015)

[Jim H]

Seth suggested earlier in this thread that the Twins may keep Berrios in extended Spring Training to protect his arm/ limit his innings. I have to confess that I don't entirely understand this. While he is in extended Spring Training he will be pitching on a regular schedule and actually pitching in controlled games. I can understand where you might not want to sent a young Puerto Rican kid up to the Midwest League to pitch in what could be extremely cold conditions in April. I don't think the overall wear and tear on a young man's arm will be a lot different pitching in extended Spring Training or the Midwest League, however.

[TRex]

Why, exactly, do you think that extended spring is no different than the MWL? Is pitcher usage in the MWL then also no different than the Arizona fall league?

 

Although I must confess to having no specific data on extended spring box scores, I doubt that pitchers in extended spring average 6 innings per start like good MWL pitchers. Last fall, Berrios averaged only 3.2 innings per start.

[Mike Sixel]

So have him start and pitch 3 innings in the Midwest League. Challenge him.

[kab21]

 

Some are saying he's still 3-4 years out, minimum...

 

If he's up in 3-4 yrs he will be 21-22 yrs old. Start naming non-elite prospects that are up for good younger than that.

 

Facts:

He was a supplemental pick in a weak draft

He hasn't pitched in full season ball

Scouts not associated with the Twins expect him to take 3-4 yrs

 

This isn't an example of the Twins holding him back (yet). Let's wait and see what he does in full season ball before we consider 3-4 yrs outrageous.

[mnfanforlife]

In reply to ThePuck.........

 

Right, well there really isn't an easy answer to your question...why take that long with Berrios? I gave you my opinion on where he should realistically start and finish the next two summers. Again, in my opinion, Berrios, Buxton, and all the other top "pigs" in the pageant should be pushed along FAST and made to STRUGGLE in the minor leagues. They should learn to overcome adversity in the minors, and will be better at dealing with the imminent adversity they will face in the Major Leagues. Just my opinion, but other organizations seem to operate this way.

[mnfanforlife]

In reply to kab21........

 

If Berrios is up at 21, I will be shocked. I don't think the Twins want anyone up that young, as they see it as a poor business decision for the organization. Imagine that..poor business decisions being made by the Twins front office. Hey with all the crap personnel moves Smith and Ryan have made over the last 3 years, there is no way they push any of their top prospects too quickly. There would be too many questions to answer. It looks like we are going back to the 1990's with our ultra-conservative approach to re-building a roster with a $23 mil catcher.

[mnfanforlife]

I do not think everyone is ok with that...but not sure what we can do about it either...

 

true story

[mnfanforlife]

Seth suggested earlier in this thread that the Twins may keep Berrios in extended Spring Training to protect his arm/ limit his innings. I have to confess that I don't entirely understand this. While he is in extended Spring Training he will be pitching on a regular schedule and actually pitching in controlled games. I can understand where you might not want to sent a young Puerto Rican kid up to the Midwest League to pitch in what could be extremely cold conditions in April. I don't think the overall wear and tear on a young man's arm will be a lot different pitching in extended Spring Training or the Midwest League, however.

 

I am fine with him starting in ext sprng trning....but he needs to be able to move up quickly once he does get to CR...jtrinaldi said he will be in A ball by May...thats fine, I just want to see him get the opp to move multiple levels if he dominates next year and the following year. Other than the disastrous trades recently, the front office has other faults in the way they develop their top prospects. The recent evidence: none are ready quickly (Hicks, Arcia, Benson, Parmelee, Salcedo, Soliman, Slama, Gibson, Wimmers, Guerra, etc.), and none have realized their potential (Slowey, Hendriks, Hoey, Dozier, Nishioka, etc., etc.) yet. Obviously more prospects will flop than flourish, but the Twins have been awful recently on both the trade, and prospect development fronts.

[kab21]

In reply to kab21........

 

If Berrios is up at 21, I will be shocked. I don't think the Twins want anyone up that young, as they see it as a poor business decision for the organization. Imagine that..poor business decisions being made by the Twins front office. Hey with all the crap personnel moves Smith and Ryan have made over the last 3 years, there is no way they push any of their top prospects too quickly. There would be too many questions to answer. It looks like we are going back to the 1990's with our ultra-conservative approach to re-building a roster with a $23 mil catcher.

 

Regardless of what you think of the FO, do you really think that Berrios is the type of prospect that is up for good at age 21 or before. We're not talking about a Dylan Bundy here. We're talking about a sandwich pick which some questioned a little at the time that has about 40 rk ball innings and scouting reports that say he can be a good #3. Even now with the hype getting a little out of control very few would put him on a top 100 prospect list.

 

Let's stop acting like the Twins are guilty of taking an ultra conservative route with Berrios when he's one of the few HS'ers that have played at both rk ball levels in their first season. That's not even mentioning that he did it in the year he was drafted due to the new CBA rules which get players signed earlier.

[mnfanforlife]

True that Berrios could never become a #1 or #2 guy. Hey, he might even flop completely. Lets just hope that he reproduces his rookie numbers over the next few levels so we can get him up to Minnesota at 21-22 for good. If he is a good #3 then he will probably be our ace.

 

Maybe he isnt a top 100 guy right now, but could certainly be with dominant numbers in low-A next year. That is, if he gets significant innings at low-A

 

And time will tell if the Twins are too conservative with Berros. I am merely suggesting he be fast tracked if his numbers call for it.

[mnfanforlife]

Anyone think Berrios pitches in A+ this coming summer?

[kab21]

Anyone think Berrios pitches in A+ this coming summer?

 

He is almost for sure going to start in low A and I would give him a <20% chance of moving up. He's good but he's not an elite HS'er or a college pitcher that is going to move fast. And the Twins do have a history of taking it slow with prospects. However if he dominates low A he could get promoted in the 2nd half.

[mnfanforlife]

Do you think he will have enough time in Low-A to dominate enough? Considering he may not join Cedar Rapids until the weather is "nice"