Bargain Hunting for Next Offseason

[Cody Pirkl]

The Twins have been accused of raiding the bargain bin so to speak in recent years. Free agency bottomed out in the offseasons headed into 2018 and 2019, which brought players like Lance Lynn, Logan Morrison and Marwin Gonzalez to Minnesota. While some worked out better than others, the Twins may find themselves in a similar position in the coming offseason.A lot of solid players just didn’t get paid the kind of money they expected in the 2017-2018 and 2018-2019 offseasons. Suddenly, teams seemed less interested in the middle to lower tier free agents and many of these players had to wait and ultimately accept lower-level deals.

 

While this was seemingly out of nowhere, what awaits in free agency this coming offseason can already be seen. Baseball as a whole has already lost money, and owners are making sure the world is aware. There will without a doubt be a drop in payouts for free agents this winter, and players again stand to make less money than they deserve. Because of that there are some players who could fall into the Twins laps next winter. Here are my top three 2021 free agents who could become “hired guns” for our Minnesota Twins.

 

Enrique Hernández

Hernández can fill a role that every competing team wants, but one that many may not deem necessary. While he’s had a few solid season’s at the plate, Enrique is not really regarded as a plus offensive player or everyday starter. He instead earns his value from his utility around the diamond, playing every position but catcher in 2019.

 

Marwin Gonzalez has filled this role for the Twins admirably, but he’s set to hit free agency in 2021 in his age-32 season. He also has a lot more name value whereas Hernández may be available for less. This is a savvy move the Twins could make to bridge the gap until an in-house player is ready to take this role after a missed year of minor league baseball in 2020. I also think he’d be an instant fan favorite.

 

 

José Quintana

While never quite an ace, Twins fans saw plenty of fantastic years from Quintana with the Sox. After being traded to the Cubs, he’s struggled to regain that success. He’s still a valuable pitcher that periodically flashes big talent. At 32 years old in 2021, improvements after working with the Twins coaching staff aren’t out of the question. At worst we’ve seen a mid 4s ERA pitcher who can eat some innings. Similar to Lance Lynn, Quintana could look for a one-year deal to re-establish some value.

 

Odorizzi is set to depart in 2021, and while the Twins have a system full of pitchers relatively close, they’re all losing some development time with a likely loss of the minor league season. While you could argue Odorizzi being in the same tier as Quintana, I’d bet he pursues a longer deal as he should have last offseason. He’s likely a top-five starting pitcher on the market for 2021 given his 2019, and he may just find a longer deal. Quintana would be a valuable veteran replacement in the rotation to buy another year for the young studs, and could even be signed to a multi-year deal for a reasonable price.

 

Kelvin Herrera

I wanted the Twins to sign Herrera last year. Turns out the front office is smarter than me, imagine that! Herrera suffered through a miserable 2019 with a 6.14 ERA for Chicago. He managed a 3.92 in the second half however, and even with losing a tick on his fastball, sits at 96.3 MPH. The tools are still there, but an ugly final line won’t have teams lining up to offer him a contract.

 

The Twins are set to lose Trevor May out of their bullpen. While I’d rather they just re-sign him, the year he’s coming off of should generate some interest. If they decide to go the cheaper route, Herrera has a similarly high-octane fastball to work with and will still be just 31 years old. Any kind of bounce back near Herrera’s KC days would be fantastic, and the Twins may have the bullpen depth to roll those dice.

 

It’s been a frustrating year for baseball, and that will certainly extend into free agency. Teams will cut payroll and avoid paying big-time money. Impact players will suffer unfortunately. The Twins have the ability to wait things out as we’ve seen in the past, as they have the depth to fill out a roster. And, if the price is right, they aren’t afraid to make a move even into spring training. What do you think? Are there any players you could see the front office snagging in a depressed free agent market?

 

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[old nurse]

It seems odd in an article about under the radar, bargain bin,  potential free agents that losing Trevor May is mentioned. Without a great 2020, May would be that type of free agent.

[rdehring]

Interesting statement: "and players again stand to make less than they deserve." Doesn't the market determine what they are worth and what they deserve?  

 

Personally, I see it as well past time that older players with questionable expectations are getting less dollars and less years. Sure makes sense to me that teams are more hesitant to sign some of these big names to shorter contracts for less money. I know lots of people here have talked a lot the past few winters about how poorly some big named players did after signing big, but not as big as hoped, contracts. 

 

Hopefully, the trade-off will be more dollars to the really good younger players early in their careers and maybe a few more dollars for the top prospects after they are added to the 40-man and still in the minors.

[DocBauer]

If Marwin has a good 2020, not so sure he doesn't re-sign with the Twins for another season or two but at less than he is currently earning due to age and the fact that I think FA is going to adjust downward for a number of players due to losses incurred in 2020. What Marwin has is a better bat than Hernandez. If Adrianza is brought back, you already have a Hernandez type on your roster who may be a better hitter. Not saying he would be a bad signing just the opposite, but he could be redundant with the guys already on the roster.

 

Quintana would be very interesting. Honestly, I think I'd rather have Odorizzi back. And I'm expecting 3yrs in the $15-16M range, less than what he would have gotten had 2020 been a normal full year with no pandemic. But I think that's going to be true for a lot of guys. I'd almost wonder, with top prospects being delayed due to a missed season, FA $ dropping, Hill and a couple other guys potentially coming off the books, could the Twins afford to keep Odorizzi AND sign Quintana? Hill is going to be prorated like everyone, but he had the potential to earn up to $14M IIRC. could he essentially replace Hill???

 

I'd rather keep May over Herrera. Period.

 

With a little luck, wisdom and maturity, the one good thing that will come out of this pandemic and mixed up short season is the owners and players association realizing how important coming to some sort of mutually beneficial labor resolution really is for all involved. Both sides have power. Both sides need and want baseball for income. Period. The public also wants and needs baseball.

 

With fear, change of lifestyle, loss of jobs and income, missing sports in general, can baseball suffer another work stoppage at this point? The ramifications could be heavy for both sides I regard to finances and public opinion, which will in return further affect income and profitability. FA and even trades, as well as options and the such, could and will be affected next off-season. How much will each side be willing to lose even more? Let's hope cooler and smarter heads will prevail?

[howieramone2]

Doc, we're on the same page with these players.

[Cody Pirkl]

 

Interesting statement: "and players again stand to make less than they deserve." Doesn't the market determine what they are worth and what they deserve?  

 

Personally, I see it as well past time that older players with questionable expectations are getting less dollars and less years. Sure makes sense to me that teams are more hesitant to sign some of these big names to shorter contracts for less money. I know lots of people here have talked a lot the past few winters about how poorly some big named players did after signing big, but not as big as hoped, contracts. 

 

Hopefully, the trade-off will be more dollars to the really good younger players early in their careers and maybe a few more dollars for the top prospects after they are added to the 40-man and still in the minors.

I think that statement of them being paid "what they deserve" is based on precedent. Baseball makes a lot of money, and someone like Marwin is a great example of somebody that shouldn't have fallen into the Twins laps because no other team wanted to pay that money. He wasn't an "old player".

 

With regards to the market dictating salaries, you're correct. This coming offseason will have a tangible reason for the market to depress, whereas 2 and 3 years ago there was no explanation which is why players were worried about collusion.

[Cody Pirkl]

 

If Marwin has a good 2020, not so sure he doesn't re-sign with the Twins for another season or two but at less than he is currently earning due to age and the fact that I think FA is going to adjust downward for a number of players due to losses incurred in 2020. What Marwin has is a better bat than Hernandez. If Adrianza is brought back, you already have a Hernandez type on your roster who may be a better hitter. Not saying he would be a bad signing just the opposite, but he could be redundant with the guys already on the roster.

Quintana would be very interesting. Honestly, I think I'd rather have Odorizzi back. And I'm expecting 3yrs in the $15-16M range, less than what he would have gotten had 2020 been a normal full year with no pandemic. But I think that's going to be true for a lot of guys. I'd almost wonder, with top prospects being delayed due to a missed season, FA $ dropping, Hill and a couple other guys potentially coming off the books, could the Twins afford to keep Odorizzi AND sign Quintana? Hill is going to be prorated like everyone, but he had the potential to earn up to $14M IIRC. could he essentially replace Hill???

I'd rather keep May over Herrera. Period.

With a little luck, wisdom and maturity, the one good thing that will come out of this pandemic and mixed up short season is the owners and players association realizing how important coming to some sort of mutually beneficial labor resolution really is for all involved. Both sides have power. Both sides need and want baseball for income. Period. The public also wants and needs baseball.

With fear, change of lifestyle, loss of jobs and income, missing sports in general, can baseball suffer another work stoppage at this point? The ramifications could be heavy for both sides I regard to finances and public opinion, which will in return further affect income and profitability. FA and even trades, as well as options and the such, could and will be affected next off-season. How much will each side be willing to lose even more? Let's hope cooler and smarter heads will prevail?

Marwin has been just a bit better than Hernandez offensively, but I do think a huge part of free agency this year will be price tags. Marwin will certainly command more, and while it's a slight downgrade on offense, Hernandez can play CF and you actually feel fine about him playing shortstop in a pinch. He might actually make Adrianza and Marwin redundant for less money. 

 

I worry about Odorizzi if we're being honest. He should have at least a couple good years left, but his career year coincides with a career year in fastball velo and that's no accident. He struggles to go deep into games because generally speaking, his fastball is his only pitch that's overly impressive. Once he starts losing velocity on that he's at risk for the bottom on everything else dropping out. On a shorter deal it would be fine, but I think he's pursuing a big payday, and the front office is going to have to weigh whether he's a guy they want to have over likely the next 4-5 years.

 

Quintana doesn't rely on velocity and has a nice repertoire. Pitcher's are always a crap shoot to project, but I could see him aging better.

 

100% agree on May vs Herrera. I wish they'd have extended May last spring. My worry now is that some team comes in with a Will Harris or Jeurys Familia like offer. Do the Twins counter that with how much confidence they have in the young arms that have either already debuted or will do so soon? I think it'll come down to money again as sad as that is. 

[Trov]

 

Interesting statement: "and players again stand to make less than they deserve." Doesn't the market determine what they are worth and what they deserve?  

 

 

Exactly true.  MLB is a perfect look into an unregulated capitalism, or free market economy.  Yes, it is only a small sample size, but shows what a free market can look like.  Specifically, when there is a monopoly.  MLB has a monopoly on baseball, basically in the whole world.  Sure, you can play in other leagues if you are not up to snuff for MLB, but MLB is the top league with the most money, not that Japan is much to sneeze at. 

 

However, as the players argue about not having a cap, it also means there is no floor.  What keeps the game going is that both sides want to make money, and they both want to make the most they can.  Both need to balance the risk of making nothing though by asking for too much.  It is almost like a teeter totter, as long as both sides stay in the air they both make money and the game is played, but once one try to get too greedy then the game is not played and no one has fun or makes money. 

 

So when a player feels he is underpaid, what is he recourse, hold out, but there are hundreds of players willing to take his place, and the teams have them in their system.  Of course the more you separate yourself from the pack, with higher WAR the more money you can command.  If you are close to replacement level, why should a team pay you more than the league minimum that a replacement level player may be worth?

 

During the two off-seasons mentioned, prior to the huge signings of last couple seasons.  I was expecting the players to start to look at change in CBA.  Still think they will, but my guess to get it they will need to give up on salary cap.  Gone are the days of 5 plus year deals for 30 plus year old players.  Too many teams have learned the hard way there is too much risk in those contracts.  If you are in 27 age range at free agency, you are considered possible HOF player and so teams willing to take that 7 to 10 year contract risk, because one you get more years of good play, and assume they regress like normal HOF path players they will still be worth something late in deal.

 

To get better FA deals, players need to get to be a FA before the age of 30 now.  Only way to do that is to reduce the amount of years they remain under team control.  They can get this, but I bet it will require salary cap.  Salary caps are not as bad as players would think, because they also always come with a floor.  What that means is no more just loading up on low cost replacement players while you "rebuild" knowing you cannot compete but you keep your stars in the minors while letting players you will one day cut loose when your stars are hitting prime at age 27 and still making third year minimum. 

 

The salary floor would help those age 31 to 35 players the most.  It would also allow younger players to earn more quickly.  For easy math, lets say cap is 200 mil and floor is 100 mil.  Only 3 teams over 200 mil, and 8 under 100 mil some as low as 56 mil and a couple right around 100.  Without knowing the revenue breakdown that would set up the cap, this cap would greatly increase the amount the players would get paid as a whole.  It would maybe reduce what an individual gets paid, but would raise the player pay overall.  Of course this is very simple break down, and local tv contracts really drive what local teams can earn, but the luxury tax basically is a salary cap at this point anyways.  Why not get the floor?  Teams like Oakland and the Rays pay very little for the wins they get, because they spend smarter not bigger.   Both under 100 mil payrolls, rays as low as 65 mil.  They get revenue sharing from the luxury taxes paid by the likes of LA and New York.  Do they reinvest into payroll, doubt they do, because they can win without spending.  Imagine if they had to spend 35 mil more, assuming they could afford it.   

[Cody Pirkl]

 

 

During the two off-seasons mentioned, prior to the huge signings of last couple seasons.  I was expecting the players to start to look at change in CBA.  Still think they will, but my guess to get it they will need to give up on salary cap.  Gone are the days of 5 plus year deals for 30 plus year old players.  Too many teams have learned the hard way there is too much risk in those contracts.  If you are in 27 age range at free agency, you are considered possible HOF player and so teams willing to take that 7 to 10 year contract risk, because one you get more years of good play, and assume they regress like normal HOF path players they will still be worth something late in deal.

 

 

I think we're getting into another issue here but I agree that they'll look to change the CBA and it'll likely end in a holdout. The thing about those late career contracts that run into a player's late 30s is that once those disappear, something else needs to change. Players need 6 years of service time to become a free agent, during most of which they're making almost nothing. If the future payoff of those 6 years drops, that's a huge swing in payout for the owners. That won't be the main issue this offseason after teams legitimately have lost money, but it's something to consider in the future.