Can Eddie Rosario Go the Other Way?

[Matthew Trueblood]

The Twins' left fielder might not be around much longer, unless he can adjust his mechanics to suit his approach—and go back to a plan of attack that suits his skills.In each of the last three seasons, Eddie Rosario has hit like a star for about half a year, then been average (or considerably worse) for about as long. That, more than his somewhat old-fashioned approach or his lack of fielding or baserunning value, is why he’s broadly seen more as a trade candidate than as a likely mainstay for the Twins. Yet, the dichotomy in his half-season splits speaks to the impact potential he still has. One key question underpins any effort to tell whether he can sustain more consistent success in the future: Can Rosario go the other way?

 

Everywhere one turns (including here at Twins Daily!), there’s a simulation of the 2020 season happening, in one form or another and through one vendor or another. Visit Rosario’s Baseball Reference page, and the news is grim: his (real) brutal spring training has carried over into his (non-real) regular season, and he’s no longer a Twins regular. This imagined Rosario has a .404 OPS in 41 plate appearances.

 

That feels dauntingly plausible, because when one watches Rosario at the plate during one of his slumps, it’s little stretch to say that he appears to have forgotten how to hit. An exceptionally aggressive hitter at the best of times, he seems to swipe hopelessly at the ball when going badly, missing some pitches badly and weakly mis-hitting others.

 

Still, the primary problem isn’t how Rosario looks when going badly, just as evaluating him can’t be boiled down to how he looks (usually, great) when going well. The main issue, in forecasting Rosario’s near and medium-term future, is whether he can get himself going well more frequently, and going badly less often. To do so, he’s going to have to solve the shift.

 

Last year, only seven batters saw more shifts than did Rosario, according to Baseball Info Solutions. Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo, Cody Bellinger, Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Belt, Kole Calhoun, and Charlie Blackmon were those seven hitters, and the two immediately behind Rosario were Carlos Santana and Bryce Harper.

 

It’s no surprise that all of those are left-handed batters (save Santana, who is a slow-footed switch hitter), but interestingly, most of the group is similar in other ways, especially in terms of approach. These are, by and large, patient hitters. Certainly, their patience correlates strongly with their success. It’s very hard to be a shift-prone (pull-happy) left-handed hitter and succeed, without being patient at the plate.

 

That’s been true since long before the shift became widely used, though. It’s part of the design of baseball. Thus, the real question isn’t whether Rosario can conquer the shift (he actually hit better against it than against non-shifted defenses last year), but whether he can change the thing that led to all those shifts in the first place: his pull rate.

 

Rosario hasn’t always been such a pull-conscious hitter. According to Baseball Savant, he pulled just 32.1 percent of his batted balls in 2017, but that number rose to 40.6 percent in 2018, and in 2019, it soared all the way to 44.4 percent. He’s becoming more one-dimensional, and given his ability to consistently make contact on such a wide array of pitches, that seems like the kind of concession he could avoid making if he rearranged his approach.

 

Worse news: on pitches on the inner part of the plate (and just off it), Rosario has gotten steadily less productive over the last three years. In 2017, his wOBA on such pitches was .447. In 2018, it rose to .477. In 2019, though, it plunged to .391. A would-be left-handed slugger, especially one without the discipline to draw walks consistently, needs to do more damage than that on the inside pitch. Rosario hit those pitches harder than ever, on average, in 2019, but elevated it less, and the result was considerably less production—and more groundouts into the shift.

 

Rosario hasn’t been hit by a pitch since July 29, 2016. That’s a little surprising, initially, because he has that familiar, closed stance, with his front foot near the inner line of the batter's box. To begin his swing, though, Rosario uses a toe tap, then strides forward and opens his front hip. In watching video of him, it sure looks like he’s become increasingly prone to letting the transition from his toe tap to his real stride carry him away from home plate, opening him up too much. As a result, he’s not hammering pitches on the inner half of the plate, and he’s not reaching pitches on the outer portion as cleanly.

 

Opening up this way occasionally allows Rosario to yank a pitch on the outer part of the plate out of the park, but for that rare gain, he’s given away his ability to drive the ball to the opposite field. The effects on his handling of inside pitches help illustrate the problem, but it’s pitches down the middle and away from him that he could handle much better, and to do so, he’s going to need to clean up his stride pattern. If he does so, he can get a better look at the ball, keep opposing defenses honest, and give himself more chances to reach base. If he doesn’t, he’s going to end up on some other team soon after baseball resumes.

 

MORE FROM TWINS DAILY

— Latest Twins coverage from our writers

— Recent Twins discussion in our forums

— Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

 

Click here to view the article

[mikelink45]

So we have run out of topics and its back to Eddie bashing.  Yet the smart stat heads and metric based manager and front office was content to keep Rosario batting fourth.  Someone is seeing something quite different - what is it?

[Twinsrule1991]

Eddie has a lot of grit and hustle, but that isn't translating to results over a full season. His unwillingness to be more patient is a detriment to the lineup. This tendency to pull the ball into the shift only adds to that detriment and is a clear reason it might be time for the Twins to move on.

I love Eddie, but I love winning more.

[Nine of twelve]

I think it was a topic of discussion a few months ago that his ankle injury on June 27 was almost certainly the main reason for the drop-off in his 2019 performance. He needs to be kept on the roster and playing regularly

[Trov]

Eddie is not a guy to use normal hitting approach comparisons with.  He is not typical hitter.  For the people that want him to be and site his chase rate and point out times he looks just ugly, fail to point out the times he crushes HR on pitches no one would swing at.  He is who he is.  He hits in the middle because he excels when runners are on compared to some.  He has power.  He wants the spot light.  He believes he is the best there is and he can hit anything and make every throw.  Sometimes he does, sometimes he does not.  He will not change.  

 

Most likely his lack of hitting other way is based on how pitchers are pitching him.  He has always been and always will be a streaky hitter.  I have always liked his personality, although feel he is replaceable.  However, when people talk about trading him they point out all the bad things he does and why he should be traded, but why would anyone trade for him if he does so many things bad?  I do not expect him around long term, mainly because he is basically replaceable on the field.  Not sure how he is in club house though. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

So we have run out of topics and its back to Eddie bashing.  Yet the smart stat heads and metric based manager and front office was content to keep Rosario batting fourth.  Someone is seeing something quite different - what is it?

 

I would suggest you re-read it. I don't think this qualifies as Eddie bashing... it likely points to what those stat heads see and why the brought him back. Moving Eddie away from being one dimensional would do wonders for his game. 

[rdehring]

 

I would suggest you re-read it. I don't think this qualifies as Eddie bashing... it likely points to what those stat heads see and why the brought him back. Moving Eddie away from being one dimensional would do wonders for his game. 

I don't know if the intent was Eddie bashing, diehard.  But I do know that he played through significant injuries the last two years, yet, when Matt failed to mention this while stressing his second half results how else can we read it?

 

Interesting question, Matt.  Fact is as pointed out above he is who he is.  Personally, he has been a favorite of mine since I closely followed his battle with Sano for the Appy League home run title however many years ago.  With that said, he likely would become even better if he could accomplish what you suggest.

 

I pray that we will have the opportunity to see Eddie play in the not distant future.  As for 2021 and beyond, with all the young talent so close I don't have a clue how management will maximize the return to the Twins, but it is a nice problem to have.

[Twodogs]

Everytime people start talking about all of Eddie's negatives then they say that he needs to be traded. Who would trade for someone that only has things wrong with him, I mean OF is probably one of the deepest positions in baseball, no one needs him. Looks like we are stuck with him for a couple more years, and I am fine with it, I like him.

 

Yeah I have a car I want to sell, there is a lot of rust on it. It starts well but doesn't keep running for very long, it's not very fast and it can be uncomfortable to look at while its in your driveway. How much you wanna give me for it?

[ashbury]

Yeah I have a car I want to sell, there is a lot of rust on it. It starts well but doesn't keep running for very long, it's not very fast and it can be uncomfortable to look at while its in your driveway. How much you wanna give me for it?

Tell us again why keeping this car is the hill worth dying on?

 

Nah, Eddie's a lot better than the car you described. But he plays at a position of reputed organizational strength and is worth thinking about trading for an area that isn't.

[Nine of twelve]

 

Tell us again why keeping this car is the hill worth dying on?

 

Nah, Eddie's a lot better than the car you described. But he plays at a position of reputed organizational strength and is worth thinking about trading for an area that isn't.

Maybe the Dodgers would trade Graterol for him.

[ashbury]

Maybe the Dodgers would trade Graterol for him.

Prrrrrrrrretty sure that would have been the trade in the first place, if the Dodgers were willing.

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I don't know if the intent was Eddie bashing, diehard.  But I do know that he played through significant injuries the last two years, yet, when Matt failed to mention this while stressing his second half results how else can we read it?

 

Interesting question, Matt.  Fact is as pointed out above he is who he is.  Personally, he has been a favorite of mine since I closely followed his battle with Sano for the Appy League home run title however many years ago.  With that said, he likely would become even better if he could accomplish what you suggest.

 

I pray that we will have the opportunity to see Eddie play in the not distant future.  As for 2021 and beyond, with all the young talent so close I don't have a clue how management will maximize the return to the Twins, but it is a nice problem to have.

 

I think Eddie is ultimately a year to year guy in MN... I do agree that he's dealt with injuries, though to be fair that's a part of the game too... In his case, there aren't many guys who can get hot and literally carry a team for a large period of time... Eddie is one of the few that can do it... the issue though with him comes with the relative strengths across the league in the corners along with the strength in the org. While he's been good here and will likely continue to be an average to above major leaguer for some time, I suspect his future will not be in MN.

[rdehring]

 

I think Eddie is ultimately a year to year guy in MN... I do agree that he's dealt with injuries, though to be fair that's a part of the game too... In his case, there aren't many guys who can get hot and literally carry a team for a large period of time... Eddie is one of the few that can do it... the issue though with him comes with the relative strengths across the league in the corners along with the strength in the org. While he's been good here and will likely continue to be an average to above major leaguer for some time, I suspect his future will not be in MN.

Great way to look at Eddie, diehard.

 

He is the only player who when he steps to the plate in a big situation, I am chanting Eddie, Eddie, Eddie to my tv. No other player excites me as he does. With that said, I believe Kepler is the Twins best player and Buxton could be.

 

Yes, injuries are part of the game. But he plays so often when injured and would be better suited sitting on the bench or on the DL. So his injuries must be factored when discussing his results...and so few do that.  

 

Will agree that his future in Minnesota is unknown. Personally, wouldn't be surprised if Kirilloff or Larnach ends up being a better all around player. Matter of fact, will be disappointed if one of the two doesn't. But as much as I am thrilled about what they can become, I know they will not excite me like Eddie does!

[Twodogs]

Tell us again why keeping this car is the hill worth dying on?

 

Nah, Eddie's a lot better than the car you described. But he plays at a position of reputed organizational strength and is worth thinking about trading for an area that isn't.

What I'm implying is that all anyone ever does is talk negatively about him, yet if this is what they think then why wouldn't other people feel the same way and in that case why would anyone want him in a trade??? I personally really like Eddie, my family and I had a great experience with him at a San Diego Padres game in San Diego a couple years back. Nonetheless, I feel Eddie is a good player and right now is a good fit for the Twins and I just get tired of everyone always saying we need to trade him, and then after saying we need to trade him, they then start to talk about everything he does wrong or does not so great. So my point was, if I try to sell you a car, and all I do is point out all of the flaws, then why the hell would you want to buy that car? I'm all for keeping the car (Eddie) myself.

[Twodogs]

Great way to look at Eddie, diehard.

 

He is the only player who when he steps to the plate in a big situation, I am chanting Eddie, Eddie, Eddie to my tv. No other player excites me as he does. With that said, I believe Kepler is the Twins best player and Buxton could be.

 

Yes, injuries are part of the game. But he plays so often when injured and would be better suited sitting on the bench or on the DL. So his injuries must be factored when discussing his results...and so few do that.

 

Will agree that his future in Minnesota is unknown. Personally, wouldn't be surprised if Kirilloff or Larnach ends up being a better all around player. Matter of fact, will be disappointed if one of the two doesn't. But as much as I am thrilled about what they can become, I know they will not excite me like Eddie does!

I remember when Brian Buchanan and Michael Restovich were going to be the next super stars also. So a bird in the hand is worth at least two in the Busch leagues maybe three? Nonetheless, dang I really hope that Kirilloff and Lanarch become really good players one day, but I've see a lot of can't misses miss. Right now Eddie is a known quantity and as long as the Twins are in contention, I wouldn't want to fill our lineup up with question marks. Right now Arraez is still a question mark, he had 2/3rds of a great season, but so did Danny Santana a few years back. So adding more is not probably a good idea at this point in time. If Arraez goes and hits .300 plus again this year then you probably know that spot is no longer a question mark and you might take a chance on a new question mark. But right now Eddie is proven and he's proven to be pretty good and pretty good under pressure. I'd stick with him for now, and not consider trading him.

[rdehring]

 

I remember when Brian Buchanan and Michael Restovich were going to be the next super stars also. So a bird in the hand is worth at least two in the Busch leagues maybe three? Nonetheless, dang I really hope that Kirilloff and Lanarch become really good players one day, but I've see a lot of can't misses miss. Right now Eddie is a known quantity and as long as the Twins are in contention, I wouldn't want to fill our lineup up with question marks. Right now Arraez is still a question mark, he had 2/3rds of a great season, but so did Danny Santana a few years back. So adding more is not probably a good idea at this point in time. If Arraez goes and hits .300 plus again this year then you probably know that spot is no longer a question mark and you might take a chance on a new question mark. But right now Eddie is proven and he's proven to be pretty good and pretty good under pressure. I'd stick with him for now, and not consider trading him.

Boy do I hear you Twodogs.

 

Remember watching Restovich when he was playing Legion ball while still in high school.  He was a man playing with boys.  But yes, so many prospects turn into suspects.

 

On the other hand, I view both Larnach and Kirilloff as better prospects than either Buck or Restovich.  Would think that their floor is what those two did with a strong likelihood of being better.  Hopefully, there will be baseball later this summer and Kirilloff is part of that expanded roster and gets a chance to prove he is for real.  That will give the Twins more options come winter.

 

As for Arraez, he is much different than Danny Santana.  With his batting eye and patience, I really don't ever see him hitting much under .300 with a lot of walks driving that OBP very high.   

[Twodogs]

Yeah, I really hope all those guys do great things. It's just that when someone doesn't, albeit I feel crappy for them, but I'm not necessarily surprised anymore. That's why I say, hey we know Eddie has done "this" year in and year out, and the Twins are in a window of contention right now, so I'd say don't rock the boat. Yeah, I hope to see those guys perform a little with an expanded roster, that would be great for them. Now if the Twins window was closing up, then yeah, maybe trade some guys, but I wouldn't do that right now. Plus I like Eddie.