MLB’s 2020 Draft Will Hurt the Twins

[Cody Christie]

Few if any high school baseball games were played this spring and college baseball saw their schedules ended almost before it could get started. For MLB organizations, evaluating talent leading into the 2020 MLB Draft is going to bring challenges never experience by front offices. Now, baseball announced a slew of changes to the draft for this year and these changes could hurt the Twins more than other teams.Many news outlets began reporting at the end of last week that the MLB amateur draft would be limited to five rounds with the event being held over two days, June 10-11. Beyond the fifth round, teams can sign undrafted players, but the maximum signing bonus is $20,000. From most accounts, front offices wanted a longer draft, but the owners pushed back, as a cost-savings measure. It also allows some teams to continue to pay their employees.

 

Minnesota’s front office made decisions that cost the team multiple picks before they knew the draft was going to be shortened. The Twins lost their third-round pick for signing free agent Josh Donaldson as he rejected a qualifying offer from the Braves. Also, the club traded away their competitive balance second-round pick as part of the trade involving Kenta Maeda and Brusdar Graterol.

 

This leaves the Twins with their first-round pick (27th overall), second-round pick (59th overall), fourth round-pick (128th overall) and fifth-round pick (158th overall). Only having two picks in the top 127 players drafted is a tough pill to swallow, but so is only having four total picks. Fewer picks mean the Twins will have an even smaller bonus pool for signing players. Minnesota’s $4,528,600 bonus pool is the fourth smallest as they only rank above the Braves, Yankees, and Astros.

 

Another consideration for shortening the draft is there is little known about what kind of minor league season will be played in 2020. MLB might use the current pandemic to push for one item they have wanted, fewer affiliated minor league teams. One of Minnesota’s longest affiliates might not survive the current situation. Teams already have players in their system and the traditional 40-round draft doesn’t make sense if there aren’t multiple rookie league rosters to fill.

 

There will also be some tough decisions for draft-eligible players. If a player isn’t taken in the first five rounds, is it worth it to sign for $20,000? Many minor league players are already struggling to make ends meet and signing bonuses in previous years could help a player to have some financial stability before making it to the big leagues.

 

With that being said, some of these undrafted players are going to sign. Since there will be a larger pool than normal of undrafted players, this group will have more freedom to decide which organization to join. Players and agents can look up the farm system rankings for any team. As a player, would you want to go to play for the Twins, MLB.com’s 7th ranked farm system? Or would it make more sense to go and play for an organization in the bottom ranking’s bottom half with less resistance to the big leagues?

 

Minnesota isn’t the lone organization or group hurt by what is left of the 2020 MLB Draft. Other organizations, college seniors and some minorities will be facing an uphill battle to make their professional baseball dreams come true.

 

What are your thoughts on the changes to this year’s MLB Draft? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[glunn]

This is well-written and makes sense.

 

If i were the Twins I would be scouting and courting the $20,000 players. looking for the best prospects, and luring them with every permissible enticement, such as free luxury housing at the training facilities, delicious meals, lots of coaching and video and every other permissible perk. 

 

This could be a lot like college recruiting where perks might make a difference for some of the better prospects. 

 

[old nurse]

About once out of every four drafts  they get a good player after the fifth round. Maybe this was the year, maybe not.

Donaldson now or long odds of third round draft pick. I sincerely hope that it does not become an issue. The same goes for the other draft pick.

[Trov]

I expect very few players to sign the 20k.  The only players that would are players that do not want to be in college and are not expected to be in top 10 next year, or if they expect a similar draft next year.  That really is the issue what will next years drafts look like?

 

If I was advising a player, if they are drafted out of college, sign for sure because no clue what future will look like.  If they are not drafted and are out of high school, if they have any interest in college go, at minimum go to community college to start, one of the good baseball ones.  If they are in college now and go undrafted if they have graduated college and do not want to return, as NCAA has given all players extra year of eligibility then sign, but only if they do not expect to be a top 10 next year, or if they believe in themselves so much they believe they will rise quickly.

 

So much to think about.  20K is not much money for someone who will be getting paid less than a living wage in the minors.  You got to love the game to go that route.  

[Nine of twelve]

 

I expect very few players to sign the 20k.  The only players that would are players that do not want to be in college and are not expected to be in top 10 next year, or if they expect a similar draft next year.  That really is the issue what will next years drafts look like?

 

If I was advising a player, if they are drafted out of college, sign for sure because no clue what future will look like.  If they are not drafted and are out of high school, if they have any interest in college go, at minimum go to community college to start, one of the good baseball ones.  If they are in college now and go undrafted if they have graduated college and do not want to return, as NCAA has given all players extra year of eligibility then sign, but only if they do not expect to be a top 10 next year, or if they believe in themselves so much they believe they will rise quickly.

 

So much to think about.  20K is not much money for someone who will be getting paid less than a living wage in the minors.  You got to love the game to go that route.  

High school graduates who are not drafted had better hope they have been accepted at a college and that the coach there has room for them in the program. By the time the draft takes place it will be too late to simply choose a college and go.

[Doctor Gast]

 

This is well-written and makes sense.

 

If i were the Twins I would be scouting and courting the $20,000 players. looking for the best prospects, and luring them with every permissible enticement, such as free luxury housing at the training facilities, delicious meals, lots of coaching and video and every other permissible perk. 

 

This could be a lot like college recruiting where perks might make a difference for some of the better prospects. 

Totally agree, hopefully our scouting will pay off where we can find some gems & try to sell them on our system. Twins: $4,528,600 ($5,448,200) bonus pool, isn`t a lot but at $20K a pop that can land us quite a few prospects if they are willing to sign for that. 

About the minor leagues, is it for sure that there won`t be any?

[Trov]

 

High school graduates who are not drafted had better hope they have been accepted at a college and that the coach there has room for them in the program. By the time the draft takes place it will be too late to simply choose a college and go.

Most HS players that would not be drafted in top 5 rounds normally know that and already have a college plan.  Even those that are have college plan.  If they did not have a college plan, then most likely they would sign the 20K.  I was mainly referring to those players that have a college plan already that they are less likely to sign.  For some, they choose the pros because they do not want to go to school, they know there is no way they will be making majors for several years, but would rather spend full time on baseball.  However, if you are hoping to maximize your earnings going to community college or returning to college for year to hope to fall in top 10 the next time around would be advisable over a 20K bonus if you were thinking you were a round 6 to 10 player. 

[mlhouse]

The Chinese Flu strikes again I guess.   This is a major cost savings push because the 2019 bonus slot value for the 10th round was $145,000.  Limiting the draft to just 5 rounds and the bonus for undrafted players at $20,000 means a lot of guys just will be going to college out of HS or into their senior year in college rather than enter professional ball this season.  

 

I think the better approach would be to have the teams have a pool of bonus money to sign undrafted players so they could bid on players.  I think the flat max bonus favors certain teams.

[DocBauer]

IMO, HS players will only be included in the first 2-3 rounds. The money just won't be there to play with for overslot signings unless a team can pull of a magic trick of financial logistics somewhere. So the problem you have are a plethora of college players who may or may not be welcomed back to their schools for another season. There is the real possibility the sport could be dropped at some schools, or put on hiatus for a season for the school to rebound financially. I can't speak for other schools, but Wisconsin has already stated they will not allow an extra year for spring athletes.

 

I fully appreciate financial concerns and questions about a milb season and how it will be played, if at all. (Though I've also stated I think a form of Cactus and Grapefruit league games could provide a limited season solution).

 

While projectjng players at this point would be difficult as guys rise and fall with another season under their belt, scouting of these players has already been ongoing. You can't cut off your nose to spite your face. With all the uncertainty involved, I'd really like to see 10 rounds and maybe bump the signing bonus closer to $40-50K, maybe with an adjusted total cap so more affluent teams couldn't just take advantage of the situation.

 

I'm afraid there could be a number of college players, for various reasons, who either hang it up, or try their luck at an independent league, and then suddenly there is an unfair and uncontrolled free-for-all in 2021 for their signature.

[Nine of twelve]

 

I'm afraid there could be a number of college players, for various reasons, who either hang it up, or try their luck at an independent league, and then suddenly there is an unfair and uncontrolled free-for-all in 2021 for their signature.

I expect that there will be little to no independent minor league ball this summer. Even if some leagues do operate there will be way more players hoping to play than there will be roster spots. But in any case I think you are right about the free-for-all for those players if things are more or less back to normal by the off-season. I'm pretty sure they will all be free agents under the current rules.

[twinstalker]

I must have missed how the five rounds hurt the Twins, in particular. The bad trade they made with the Dodgers already hurt them, as did losing their 3rd for Donaldson. That part hasn't changed. I didn't catch the argument that the strong farm system plays against them.  I guess it's possible, but that seems an iffy argument. Most of those players won't be competing with the "strong system" guys, and the rules are such that you don't get improperly buried in the minor leagues of baseball like you did maybe 50-60 years ago.

 

If I'm someone apt to take the $20,000 from a team, I'm going to foremost look for a system that will best develop me. A strong system is at least a possible indication of that, so I therefore let the Twins in the front door. I would look for a team with a strong organizational development philosophy along with a clear cut plan for how they take my strengths and weakness and prepare me for the major leagues. Nobody likely explains this better than the Twins, who are likely to impress with their innovation, their "science," and their detailed strategies that I'm sure they easily customize to me.

 

I think the things that hurts the Twins will be more base, like players preferring the teams that get all the attention or that they grew up rooting for (basically the Twins get shut out in this area of reasoning). A kid growing up in Georgia or North Carolina who's getting screwed by this whole thing might as well at least get to play for the organization they grew up adoring. The Twins get the leftovers of these types.

 

I know if I could choose an organization growing up, I would have chosen the Twins because they were my favorite. But that also means I'm probably not very good, because I probably live in Minnesota and baseball's limited here.