What Does the Future Hold For Mitch Garver?

[Cody Pirkl]

Mitch Garver officially broke out in his age 28 season. A triple slash of .273/.365/.630 in 93 games was something that simply nobody saw coming. His 155 wRC+ led all of baseball at the catcher position. A repeat of a flat out dominant showing may be wishful thinking, but you do have to wonder just what the future may hold for the Twins backstop.While we don’t have a crystal ball to look into, there are a few pieces of a player profile that we can consider when looking at a player’s future. For Garver, he has some interesting considerations.

 

The Catcher Position:

Garver plays the most taxing position in baseball. Along with the wear and tear of squatting for hours per day, serious injury is always lurking when a 90+MPH object is hurled at you repeatedly and you’re crouched as close as possible to a grown man swinging a giant chunk of wood. Catchers typically don’t age well, and we’ve seen sudden and significant drop offs pretty regularly over the game’s history.

 

Joe Mauer was downright legendary before a concussion in 2013 hampered his vision and never allowed him to reach peak superstar levels again. Garver already missed the end of 2018 with a concussion. Though he seemed to recover well, another blow to the head can always be catastrophic to an individual’s career and personal well being when they’ve already suffered from concussions in the past. Joe Mauer is a cautionary tale of the ways a career can be derailed by injury behind the plate.

 

Defense:

Mitch Garver was always a bat first prospect. He notably improved his defense to passable levels, and in 2019 made impressive gains in the framing stat which has become more and more valuable. He may very well continue to improve, but he likely has a ceiling on his defensive ability given the raw tools he possesses.

 

Many catcher’s careers have been extended as a result of their defensive mastery long after their offensive production has dried up. Garver simply doesn’t have that safety net. His improvement from -17 to +1 defensive runs saved from 2018-2019 is impressive, but it’s still close to neutral. It’s safe to say Garver’s defense isn’t the foundation of his future as a starting catcher.

 

Offense:

We very well may have seen Garver’s career year in 2019. A 29% home run to fly ball percentage just doesn’t consistently happen. That being said, it wasn’t the mirage that some GarvSauce haters claim it to be. Garver possesses the useful skill of commanding the strike zone. He swung at pitches off the plate around 20% of the time in 2019 (Rosario swung at about 46% for reference).

 

On one hand this allows for great on base skills. On a more important note however, it allows Garver to force pitchers to throw him something he can drive. In 2019 he did a great job of not missing his chances as evidenced by his 97th percentile hard hit rate. While that HR/FB% was inflated, there’s something to be said about hitting the ball as hard as Garver does when it’s combined with the amount of fly balls he hits (47.3% of the time). Commanding the plate often ages well, and Garver’s bat should remain a steady source of production for as long as his physical tools allow him to punish those hittable pitches.

 

Garver’s future looks bright as you would expect after the kind of Mike Piazza-esque season he just assembled. It’s fair to question how it plays out however given the injury prone position he plays and the neutral defensive prowess he offers at a position where defense is revered. He possesses a skill few catchers do however: The offensive ability to be valuable at another position. Nelson Cruz will call it a career at some point. Should they consider shifting Garver to a 1B/DH role to minimize the physical breakdown and maximize his offensive talent? Could he just simply slug his way into a stranglehold of the starting job behind the plate for years to come? What do you think Mitch Garver’s future holds?

 

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[Doctor Gast]

I believe his future will be bright. I was expecting a great 2019 season from him because  of his 2018 was constantly projecting upwards. He`s a solid adult & not a kid so I expect he hasn`t plateaued yet not saying he won`t have a temporary slump. Catching is addictive, a good catcher likes to be the center of the action & hates to give that up. But like you said it`s a very demanding position & all the good ones to continue needs to transition to another position & expect Garver to do the same. Think of the recent past the confrontation of catcher & runner, how disastrous that was even though that was part of the game. Glad to see that change 

[Linus]

Garver is a good reminder that some prospects don’t make it until later age. His swing is so solid that I expect him to continue having success with the bat

[mikelink45]

It is hard to project because it is also possible that last year was a fluke and the skill can vanish as it has for others. I can only hope and believe that he is that rare talent who just keeps getting better and can stay at catcher.   Should he continue he will be ranked with Mauer and Battey as our greatest. 

[DocBauer]

Couple things about Garver:

 

1] While 2019 may have surprised to some degree, and it may or may not be his career season, and the ball may have influenced his season and seasons to come, I've always believed in his offensive ability. Even with various factors leading to some regression, he's still a fine hitter, with discipline and with power. He's a quality offensive player and not "just" for a catcher.

 

2] While a bit of a late bloomer, being a college player and catcher, he is in his prime years at this moment and SHOULD be in line for another 3-4yrs of prime production age wise barring injury concerns.

 

3] Unless I have missed something, he has never had anything, injury wise, of any concern thus far in his career that wasn't "normal" such as a sprained ankle and the such. The exception being a couple concussions, though I am unsure to the degree of either of them. He seems to be built sturdily, seems to be in fine shape, and has recovered from various nicks and the such quickly. If concussions don't return as a bugaboo, again, he should have another 3-4 prime years available behind the plate.

 

4] While coming up through the minors, he shared a lot of time behind the plate. This was due to him still developing defensively as well as sharing time with guys like fellow draftee Turner. So the actual physical wear and tear mileage behind the plate has been somewhat mitigated before he reached MLB. And even last year, during his breakout, he still shared time with the solid, productive veteran Castro.

 

5] Rocco, and the FO, recognize the value of quality catching on the club, with a plan not to also not wear out their players. We saw it some at the end of 2018 when Garver was showing improvement but they struck with veteran Wilson a chunk of the time. Yes, this was also defense/experience related. But in a lost season, they also didn't just throw caution to the wind and just say "the he'll with it" and throw Garver out there daily. Avilla was brought in as a perfect 1yr replacement for Castro to continue having a quality mix and match scenario...with Astudillo available...until someone like Jeffers was ready.

 

Now, the whole milb season of play and development is under as big of a cloud as the ML season is, and could require a whole lot of re-thinking and re-examination roster wise for 2021 for all teams at all positions, but the Twins seem to have a good handle on what they want to do behind the plate. And all of this is to say, yet again, Garver is primed to be a top catcher for the next 3-4yrs.

[jimbo92107]

Putting a knee down will help keep Garver's legs fairly healthy, while his approach at the plate will keep his bat explosive. I expect the Twins to platoon Garver with somebody like Ryan Jeffers to keep both men relatively fresh. The days of one guy catching 90 percent of games is over, especially if their bat is their ticket. 

 

I do expect to see Garver hit 40 or more homers in a season. Simple, powerful swing, quick to the ball, long through it. He might even become another Nelson Cruz as a DH. 

[RochesterDave]

I watched Garver here in Rochester for a few years, and the Red Wings would usually carry 3 catchers - so I saw Mitch play some LF and 1B also. He always had a team first attitude , plus always hustled (unlike Nick Gordon). I will admit that his recent success has surprised me, but it couldn’t happen to a better guy or teammate.

[Shaitan]

 

Putting a knee down will help keep Garver's legs fairly healthy, while his approach at the plate will keep his bat explosive. I expect the Twins to platoon Garver with somebody like Ryan Jeffers to keep both men relatively fresh. The days of one guy catching 90 percent of games is over, especially if their bat is their ticket. 

 

I do expect to see Garver hit 40 or more homers in a season. Simple, powerful swing, quick to the ball, long through it. He might even become another Nelson Cruz as a DH. 

 

Based on last year's rotation and Rocco's general approach to rest, that seems realistic. 

[ashbury]

I watched Garver here in Rochester for a few years, and the Red Wings would usually carry 3 catchers - so I saw Mitch play some LF and 1B also. He always had a team first attitude , plus always hustled (unlike Nick Gordon). I will admit that his recent success has surprised me, but it couldn’t happen to a better guy or teammate.

Slowest guy I ever saw on Rochester was Willians Astudillo trudging out to left field, and back, on a day he wasn't catching. I don't remember any complaints about his hustle when the game was on the line, though. There is real hustle, and there is fake hustle, and I don't think many players reach the high minors without a requisite quantity of the former. Who cares about the latter.

 

[theBOMisthebomb]

I will echo what others have said so far and state that I expect Mitch to be solid behind the plate for the next 3-5 years. I love the swing and disciplined plate approach and it should serve Mitch well as he ages.