How Long Can Jorge Polanco Remain at Shortstop?

[Cody Pirkl]

Jorge Polanco takes the brunt of the blame in the Twins infield defensive issues, especially now that Miguel Sano has been moved off of 3B. Coming off a year of -7 defensive runs saved at the age of 26 years old, it’s fair to wonder just how long Polanco can continue manning the premier position.Let’s get it out of the way right now, Polanco didn’t have as healthy a season as his 142 games played suggests. His ankle, which required surgical intervention this offseason, likely hampered his range. His Universal Zone Rating was his worst in 3 seasons. In addition, he was in question for Opening Day with shoulder inflammation that very well could have lingered and contributed to his 13 throwing errors. Better health could allow for an improvement in Polanco’s defensive game.

 

Polanco may look to follow the steps of another AL shortstop in the coming years. Marcus Semien was considered a butcher at the position early in his career with a -8 DRS in his first full season. He was unspectacular until 2018 and 2019 where he put together a fantastic 26 combined DRS.

 

While Semien worked to improve his game, some of his improvement may have been out of his control. Another A’s infielder had a breakout season in 2018 by the name of Matt Chapman. While fantastic in his rookie season (15 DRS), Chapman erupted for a combined 64 DRS in 2018 and 2019. He was one of the greatest defensive 3B in baseball. Having such a stud defensive player allowed the A’s to tweak the alignment in the infield, particularly for Semien to be able to shift more often since Chapman could make up the difference. While not quite the defensive wizard, Josh Donaldson should be a massive upgrade from Sano at 3B for the Twins. Anywhere near his 15 DRS in 2019 would afford an opportunity for the Twins to take a page out of Oakland’s book and shift Polanco to better facilitate his weaknesses.

 

In that same vein, the ability to be able to afford to have Polanco remain at shortstop if his defense improves has to do with the rest of the infield as well. If Polanco’s defense makes you cringe, Derek Jeter’s metrics should make you sick. He saved more than 1 run defensively in one single season of his career and had multiple years of being in the -20s. While there was a certain iconic factor to Jeter remaining at shortstop throughout his long career, the rest of his infield was more often than not fairly impressive. He lined up alongside players who put together some strong seasons defensively such as A-Rod, Robinson Cano and Mark Teixiera who certainly softened the blow of his defensive shortcomings.

 

Defense is more revered in present day baseball and good teams simply don’t want to field a subpar infield. For that reason, some questions about Polanco’s future may have to do with things like “How will Sano take to 1B?” “How long can Donaldson play an impressive 3B?” “Can Arraez improve upon his neutral defense he showed in his debut?”

 

Not every player is capable of performing at a Gold Glove level, and Polanco has consistently raised concerns at one of the most important infield positions in his career so far. At 26, it’s coming up on make or break time, as soon his range and athleticism will have nowhere to go but down. Can he make improvements through hard work and good health? Can Donaldson and the Twins scouting team help mask Polanco’s difficulties? Can his blemishes be covered by the performances of the rest of the infield? 2019 showed that his bat belongs in the lineup everyday, but how long can he continue to line up at shortstop?

 

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[AceWrigley]

If he can cut down on the throwing errors he will be fine.

[bighat]

As long as he hits .300 and continues to spark this team with the bat, the Twins only offensive All-Star in 2019 can play anywhere he wants.

 

Polanco's a special player. I've always felt that people who pick on his defense haven't watched him play shortstop. It's the most difficult defensive position in baseball and errors are gonna happen. He gets to a lot of baseballs and is very athletic. He's made some huge defensive gems late in ballgames that have saved games for this team.

 

 

[mikelink45]

Glad you brought up Jeter - he was on my mind when I started to read - so there are two answers to your question - he can be there as long as we can win with him there and his bat produces (the Jeter proposition) or until someone comes and beats him out (which is always the best way). 

[Linus]

The answer: yesterday. He does not have the skills to be a good MLB shortstop. He could be one of the best second baseman however.

[Doctor Gast]

I believe Polanco was played too much last year, along w/ Kepler & Rosario. Adrianca should be played more often to give Polanco a break. I agree Donaldson will relieve much stress from Polanco & Arraez. W/ these 2 factors plus self improvement, IMO Polanco will greatly improve

[ashbury]

Polanco's a special player. I've always felt that people who pick on his defense haven't watched him play shortstop. It's the most difficult defensive position in baseball and errors are gonna happen. He gets to a lot of baseballs and is very athletic. He's made some huge defensive gems late in ballgames that have saved games for this team.

It's his arm. That's been the issue since day one. I admire that he has found ways of getting the most out of that arm - through a style that I have to say looks unorthodox. But at the end of the day, after this much time to improve it, the arm looks like it will always be just shy of sufficient for the SS job. It's a dilemma for the team, since his bat is way more than sufficient for the job.

[DocBauer]

Agreed his arm is the biggest issue. 100% healthy, hopefully, and with more time spent with his new throwing motion, I look for additional improvement. I also agree that having a better defensive player to his right helps.

 

Let's face it, quality defense is always important, always nice to have. But the game has changed from contact, situational hitting and movement to power and launch angle. "Airtight" defense isn't quite the requirement it used to be.

 

Only 26 and with all his positives, I think he can be the SS for several years barring injury. To me it's more about the rest of the team vs a "how long" discussion. You put your best players on the field. I believe Lewis is going to be one of those players very soon. But does he stay at SS and move Polanco to 2B? Or is there nobody to replace Donaldson in a few years so Lewis goes there and Polanco stays at SS?

[bighat]

His arm is fine IMO:

 

That entire video shows some great defensive plays. Is he Ozzie Smith? No....but shouldn't we be okay with that? We should keep our expectations reasonable. As others have commented, with his age and talent and contract he's going to be the team's shortstop for a while. There are plenty of things to worry about, Polanco's defense isn't one of them.

[jmlease1]

I think he can still stick there for 3-4 more years; while the defense isn't good, he's not exactly the Butcher of Cairo out there and he's still in his athletic prime. If he continues to work on his defense, there's real opportunity for him to improve, particularly with his arm where he can improve his mechanics, strength and accuracy.

 

There is a better recognition of defensive metrics and teams are more reluctant to put bad defenders on the field, I don't think it's applying to players like Polanco. The defensive crunch is taking out one-dimensional sluggers who simply can't play at key defensive positions. Guys who are plus offensively and can survive defensively up the middle will still get a pass until their defense just makes it impossible to play them there and Polanco isn't in that position. Partly because his defense, while poor, isn't unplayable and partly because the Twins don't have a better solution pushing to make the field.

 

BRef's WAA shows the Twins were 9th at SS and that's because of Polanco. You'd love to add some additional defensive value, but as long as he hits like this you don't worry too much about his defense unless it really falls off the map. He's got more seasons at SS in him for sure.

[mikelink45]

I should have added this note in my first comment - the shift and the launch angle have actually diminished the high value of defense.  Would Mark Belanger play today?  

[ashbury]

His arm is fine IMO. That entire video shows some great defensive plays. Is he Ozzie Smith? No....but shouldn't we be okay with that?

Your last point first: yeah, I'm OK with that, among the alternatives available to the team for 2020.

 

But the video doesn't do much to persuade me the "arm is fine". Remove the home runs and the highlight reel drops from 8 minutes to about 2. Of that, several plays involve glove-flips to second base, or short throws to first during a shift, or miscellaneous defensive plays (snaring a line drive, tagging a runner at second) that demonstrate major league range and baseball instincts. But the arm? I saw artfully bounced throws to the first baseman, which is a much smarter way to make maximum use of a marginal arm than his earlier approach which too often resulted in scattershot throws that lost accuracy in the pursuit of velocity. As I said, I actually admire the work he has put in to improve his throws.

 

But that's a highlight reel. Of at least equal importance are "plays not made". I don't have a lowlight reel to offer, but my selective memory is that when a play seems like it should have been completed for an out but wasn't, it was usually the arm and not the range per se that accounted for it. I'm no scout, and I'd be prepared to be educted otherwise by a pro.

 

[Halsey Hall]

After watching him take infield on Tom Kelly Field numerous days this spring, I'd say his arm is fine.  Actually I'd say his arm isn't the worst on the left side on the infield.

[AceWrigley]

 

I should have added this note in my first comment - the shift and the launch angle have actually diminished the high value of defense.  Would Mark Belanger play today?  

Good question. A quick BBref rough comp:

 

Mark Belanger - Career OPS+ 68, Def Runs total/Yr +19

Alcides Escobar - Career OPS+ 73, Def Runs total/Yr -3

 

So yeah, as much as you can value the defense performance vs the offense level, I think he does play. Not to pick on Mr. Escobar, but maybe he shouldn't be given a regular MLB gig, eh?

[terrydactyls]

The simple answer is that Polanco remains the Twins shortstop until someone better shows up.

[Nine of twelve]

 

The simple answer is that Polanco remains the Twins shortstop until someone better shows up.

That's true for every player at every position.

[Platoon]

Every IF and every catcher from day one is encouraged to throw the ball 'over the top'. Dropping down causes balls to sail, sink, and slide up the line into the runner. 
 

Sidearm throwers generally generate less velocity also. Polanco’s arm is basically mediocre velocity wise, and subpar accuracy wise. 
 

I am surprised little has been said about his difficulties with the 3 hop ground ball? He plays short like a 3rd baseman, does well on rockets, struggles to adjust to the bouncing ball. I have made the following point before, and it fits Jorge to a 'T':  The old saw in BB is that if you can hit they will find a place for you to play. I doubt the guy who first uttered those words ever intended that 'place' to be SS. 

[Otwins]

Polanco and Sano's throwing errors went up when Mauer quit playing first base.  He was an underrated defensive first baseman.  Cron had good power but was stiff defensively. Throws in the dirst that Mauer scooped Cron did not and the error's are charged to the infielder that threw it. I am more worried about Sano at first than Polanco at short. If Sano puts in the work and turns in to a good defensive first baseman. Polanco will be fine. Not great 

[TopGunn#22]

Polanco will stick there for the next couple of years.  His bat will play anywhere.  Who moves him out of SS is one question.  Lewis?  Wander Javier ?? (if he can regain his former status) someone else drafted in the next year or so ?  But it isn't as simple as just saying "move Polanco to 2B.  Where does that put Arraez ?  His bat will put him on the firld someplace as well, and 2B is the BEST place to have Arraez.  Does Polanco move to 3B ?  That works when Donaldson moves to DH (or 1B) but Donaldson has at least 3-years at 3B...probably more.  Lewis will probably begin as some sort of super utility guy, like Caesar Tovar, playing all 3 OF spots and SS,3B & 2B with his bat in the game 5-6 out of 7 games.  And I remember all the optimism concerning Wander Javier.  Then 2+ seasons marred by injury issues.  Will Javier ever get his mojo back ?  And if he does...what a pile of riches the Twins can contemplate.   

[Trov]

Two ways you can answer your question.  One, what is his net WAR at SS compared to all other SS options WAR.  That is a straight math question, with some speculation of course because unless they play there no way to know their actual WAR.  However, it looks like this.  In 2019, despite his negative DRS, according to baseball reference he has positive DWAR, kind of odd since many metrics has Polonco as worse starter around defense wise.  However his total WAR was 4.8.  So, unless we have someone that can put up a bigger WAR, then math says Polonco stays at SS.

 

Of course, much of that WAR is from offense, so you could move him to a different position, which then the math just converts to total team war with plugging in each player at the position.  We assume the most likely spot polonco would go would be 2nd base, since throwing is his main issue.  So does the replacement at SS have higher WAR than Arrez does?  Really, you need to keep dragging this out to so many defense options, but they got people to do this.

 

Option 2, is decide how much the DRS is needed compared to others that could do better.  Most of the time, top defenders are not top hitters and vise versa.  Much as you stated Jeter by metrics was terrible defense for years, but he was the captain and many believed he was better at defense than he really was.  

 

Really, Polonco can stay as long as Twins want him to be there.  There is no bar that one must be above to play a position.  If the Twins feel him there is best for team they will play him there.  Hard to replace his offense.  If he drops in production then he will get moved sooner than later.  If there is a shift to ground ball hitting again, he may get moved sooner than later.  If someone pushes him out because they hit like him but field like Ozzie, he will get moved. 

[mikelink45]

Maybe the ultimate question is - where else would you put him?  Is his bat good enough to put him in the OF or to move Arraez or Sano or Donaldson?  His value is at SS.  And at this point I do not see anyone ready to push him out.   If he is a Twin he is a SS - if not a SS he is traded.

[DocBauer]

Polanco will stick there for the next couple of years.  His bat will play anywhere.  Who moves him out of SS is one question.  Lewis?  Wander Javier ?? (if he can regain his former status) someone else drafted in the next year or so ?  But it isn't as simple as just saying "move Polanco to 2B.  Where does that put Arraez ?  His bat will put him on the firld someplace as well, and 2B is the BEST place to have Arraez.  Does Polanco move to 3B ?  That works when Donaldson moves to DH (or 1B) but Donaldson has at least 3-years at 3B...probably more.  Lewis will probably begin as some sort of super utility guy, like Caesar Tovar, playing all 3 OF spots and SS,3B & 2B with his bat in the game 5-6 out of 7 games.  And I remember all the optimism concerning Wander Javier.  Then 2+ seasons marred by injury issues.  Will Javier ever get his mojo back ?  And if he does...what a pile of riches the Twins can contemplate.

 

While I don't dismiss Javier playing SS...assuming sustained health and recovering his prospect momentum...it just feels like he's physically growing out of the position, just gaining muscle and developing. Miranda might be the best 3B option in the system at this point. Cavaco could also end up at 3B eventually as well, though he's a ways away to project to the majors, much as as to which left side spot. Hopefully, we're at least 3yrs away from having to find the next 3B.

 

Agree fully that Lewis could debut as a super utility just based on opportunity. I think you build your roster with the best talent available, with position flexibility, and figure it out. IMO, Lewis has everything needed to succeed at SS as well as 3B. As much as I LOVE Arraez, if your talent level pushes Polanco off SS, his arm just won't play at 3B, even if the rest of him does, as a talent, 2B would be the natural position for him. If I had to choose Polanco or Arraez at 2B, I'd have to go with Polanco.

[Twodogs]

I really don't think any team out there really cares very much about defense anymore. That's why all the teams go to crazy shifts and stuff. I don't think Ozzie Smith or Omar Vizquel or hardly any SS from the 80's and early 90's would have ever wanted to play in a shift. Those guys could cover ground big time, but, sometimes they didn't hit the best, Ozzie, a hall of famer was not known for his hitting, he was known for his defense. That's not the case these days it's all about hitting. As long as Polanco hits, in this era of baseball he will be run out there somewhere, with Donaldson and Arraez I don't see anywhere except at SS.

[Cody Pirkl]

 

I really don't think any team out there really cares very much about defense anymore. That's why all the teams go to crazy shifts and stuff.

I actually disagree. The Twins made a concerted effort to improve the infield defense this winter after missing out on Wheeler. Is there an alternate reality where it isn't as much of a priority? Sure. But they could have done any number of other moves for players like Mike Moustakas or Nick Castellanos who are younger and cost less. Donaldson is a great hitter sure, but he's also a top tier defender that justified moving Sano off of 3B. The bottom line is that you can lose games because of defense, especially when it's your shortstop making errors.

[Cody Pirkl]

 

Maybe the ultimate question is - where else would you put him?

This is certainly fair to ask. One scenario that crosses my mind is that Donaldson may not remain at 3B throughout the entire course of his contract. That doesn't necessarily mean Polanco shifts over. Someone like Arraez could also wind up either switching positions or becoming more of a utility guy that still plays everyday. Before Arraez burst onto the scene, I think the game plan was to eventually shift Polanco to 2B. That was his natural position afterall.

[Cody Pirkl]

 

After watching him take infield on Tom Kelly Field numerous days this spring, I'd say his arm is fine.  Actually I'd say his arm isn't the worst on the left side on the infield.

It's an odd distinction because we've all seen Polanco make incredible throws. The bottom line though is that the majority of his errors were throwing errors in 2019. That doesn't necessarily mean he doesn't have the arm for SS, there could also be some kind of a mental aspect to it as well. As I also mentioned he opened the season coming off of shoulder inflammation that left his status in question for opening day. Playing through that can cause it to linger for a good while.

[Cody Pirkl]

 

As long as he hits .300 and continues to spark this team with the bat, the Twins only offensive All-Star in 2019 can play anywhere he wants.

I think that's a fair assessment. That being said, with how deep statistics go in the game of baseball these days, it's fair to wonder how much more value he would have added to the team in a position that he could play more competently. You also have to factor in the effect of moving somebody else off of their position so it's easier said than done. That's just the way front offices look at the way they field their team these days.

[Twodogs]

I actually disagree. The Twins made a concerted effort to improve the infield defense this winter after missing out on Wheeler. Is there an alternate reality where it isn't as much of a priority? Sure. But they could have done any number of other moves for players like Mike Moustakas or Nick Castellanos who are younger and cost less. Donaldson is a great hitter sure, but he's also a top tier defender that justified moving Sano off of 3B. The bottom line is that you can lose games because of defense, especially when it's your shortstop making errors.

Yeah, I don't think defense was really at the forefront of their minds when they signed Donaldson. I mean for starters he might not play 3B for them for the length of his contract. The fact of the matter is that he most likely will become the DH at some point in his tenure with the Twins so as to keep him healthy. It wasn't too many years ago that he missed major chunks of seasons battling calf injuries and such. Nonetheless he makes the defense at 3rd better, but I still don't think that was the real reason why. The Twins had no one at 1B, so either they get Donaldson, who is a tremendous hitter and they move Sano to 1B or they get some free agent firstbaseman and leave Sano at 3rd?? What were your options? They needed to make a splash free agent signing, were there really any comparable 1st basemen out there to a say Donaldson? So at the same time does Sano improve the Defense at 1st? I don't think so, at least not for a year or so, until he gets used to that spot. I mean what could be worse for the Twins than a potentially shaky defender at 1st? With Polanco and Arraez chucking one hoppers over there constantly? So as much as Donaldson does improve the Defense at 3rd, it was in my mind definitely not the reason they signed him. They signed him so the Twins can hit even more Dingers!!!! Which is cool, plus he is an on base guy, defense was simply just and extra that they got with him, because let's face it, at his age, most likely his defense is on the downswing, but as Nelson Cruz has shown, older guys if they take care of themselves can still swing the stick. Moustakis was signed on December 5th, he was never targeted by the Twins as they were trying to sign pitching at that point in time and Castellanos doesn't play 3B, he is a rightfielder. I remember discussions about Castellanos and posters were throwing around the idea of putting Kepler at 1B if they brought Castellanos on and that doesn't make much sense. Plus Castellanos at this point is not in the same category as Donaldson as far as hitting goes. Donaldson has hit 30+ bombs 4 or 5 years Castellanos has never hit 30. Plus Castellanos is like a .320 something OBP guy and Donaldson is like .369 OBP guy. So yeah Castellanos was a little cheaper, but he also can't hit as well, and he didn't play 3B. So I still don't think anyone really cares about defense that much anymore. Don't get me wrong, I wish they still did.

[Cody Pirkl]

 

Yeah, I don't think defense was really at the forefront of their minds when they signed Donaldson. I mean for starters he might not play 3B for them for the length of his contract. The fact of the matter is that he most likely will become the DH at some point in his tenure with the Twins so as to keep him healthy. It wasn't too many years ago that he missed major chunks of seasons battling calf injuries and such. Nonetheless he makes the defense at 3rd better, but I still don't think that was the real reason why. The Twins had no one at 1B, so either they get Donaldson, who is a tremendous hitter and they move Sano to 1B or they get some free agent firstbaseman and leave Sano at 3rd?? What were your options? They needed to make a splash free agent signing, were there really any comparable 1st basemen out there to a say Donaldson? So at the same time does Sano improve the Defense at 1st? I don't think so, at least not for a year or so, until he gets used to that spot. I mean what could be worse for the Twins than a potentially shaky defender at 1st? With Polanco and Arraez chucking one hoppers over there constantly? So as much as Donaldson does improve the Defense at 3rd, it was in my mind definitely not the reason they signed him. They signed him so the Twins can hit even more Dingers!!!! Which is cool, plus he is an on base guy, defense was simply just and extra that they got with him, because let's face it, at his age, most likely his defense is on the downswing, but as Nelson Cruz has shown, older guys if they take care of themselves can still swing the stick. Moustakis was signed on December 5th, he was never targeted by the Twins as they were trying to sign pitching at that point in time and Castellanos doesn't play 3B, he is a rightfielder. I remember discussions about Castellanos and posters were throwing around the idea of putting Kepler at 1B if they brought Castellanos on and that doesn't make much sense. Plus Castellanos at this point is not in the same category as Donaldson as far as hitting goes. Donaldson has hit 30+ bombs 4 or 5 years Castellanos has never hit 30. Plus Castellanos is like a .320 something OBP guy and Donaldson is like .369 OBP guy. So yeah Castellanos was a little cheaper, but he also can't hit as well, and he didn't play 3B. So I still don't think anyone really cares about defense that much anymore. Don't get me wrong, I wish they still did.

It's impossible to say what the inner workings of the front office were saying this winter other than it was abundantly clear that they wanted to upgrade the rotation. I just think that the secondary weakness on the team was clearly infield defense. Sure they wanted a player whose offensive value added to the lineup, but they wouldn't have paid the money they did for Donaldson if he didn't improve the infield defense (which I argue is the next best thing to signing an ace on this roster). At -14 Outs Above Average in the infield last year, we were giving runs away. I don't think infield defense matters all that much to an extent, but ranking 26th out of 30 teams in infield defense is probably something to make an effort to improve when you have playoff aspirations.

 

Donaldson will be another masher in the lineup, sure. I think that the money they paid him shows that they were looking for more than just a bat though.

[Twodogs]

You are correct, in Donaldson they have someone who improves the defense at 3B over Sano. But to try and tackle being ranked 26th out of 30 teams on infield defense by spending 92 million on a 3rd baseman I'm not sure it's really the reason they got him. I mean if you are really trying to improve infield defense then you have to focus up the middle which, they might have gotten worse with Arraez taking over for Schoop and Sano taking over at 1st? That has been my point all along is that yeah they might wish they had better defense overall, but I don't think they want to sacrifice the hitting to do so. They would rather have weak defense and be able to mash than have great defense and have 3 holes in their lineup. So right now they are built around hitting and that is what they added. And again this is just my opinion, but I'm not totally convinced that Donaldson wasn't signed just because they needed to do something to show everyone that they are all in. To me, it's why the Twins play sooo many shifts. I mean some teams out there don't shift as much as the Twins do and there are probably reasons. Yes you are also correct in the fact that the pitching would look much better with solid defense behind them. Look at some of those slick fielding teams of the early 2000's. Some of those pitchers looked pretty decent as Twins, but most of them weren't very good. But because they could pick it, they were serviceable for sure. Nonetheless I'm pretty sure Polanco has SS locked up for a couple of years at least, due to his hitting.