Should The Twins Target Trevor Bauer?

[Matt Braun]

It has become apparent with each offseason that the front office headed by Derek Falvey and Thad Levine is nothing like the ones from before. The team has finally expanded their reach in free agency over the last few seasons. Players who would previously never have been considered realistic targets for the team such as Nelson Cruz and Josh Donaldson have made their way up north to bring their talents to the Twin Cities. Could the next big move be acquiring Trevor Bauer?The free agent market for starting pitchers next year isn’t quite a desert but it could be a distant cousin of one. The market lacks the big flashy names of last offseason that saw Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Zack Wheeler become available. Instead, this offseason’s market will be littered with assorted #2 guys at best in players like Masahiro Tanaka, James Paxton, Marcus Stroman, and Jake Odorizzi. All are fine pitchers but more as complementary pieces to a rotation that already has a bona-fide stud leading the way.

 

The Twins may have that guy in José Berríos but the fact that that is a disputed take among Twins fans speaks to the idea that he isn’t quite at that studly level yet. Bauer, however, has been at that level. Using fWAR, his 2018 season (5.8 fWAR) would be the second best season by a Twins starter over the last decade. Part of that is due to the Twins’ inability to develop a starting pitcher of value for much of that time, but that’s why free agency exists in the first place. Can’t develop them? Then go buy them.

 

Beyond Bauer’s on-field ability, his work with Driveline Baseball and desire to push the pitching meta of baseball as far as it can go would essentially make him an extra pitching coach in the dugout. In fact, it was this quality that connected Bauer and Derek Falvey when Falvey was with the Indians who had plucked the pitcher from the Diamondbacks. The familiarity is already there.

 

Now, the thing about Bauer is that you’re getting more than just his ability. Bauer is one of the more outspoken players in baseball and comes with an eccentric personality. Unfortunately, this also comes with political statements that will not be specified for the purpose of focusing on strictly baseball, but can be found with a Google search.

 

This is where the prospect of trading for Bauer becomes hazy. Yes, he would undoubtedly make the team better, but should we advocate for acquiring talent over all else? Do we not also want to be rooting for the best people possible or is it “just win baby”?

 

If you only value the product on the field, then Bauer should absolutely be your first target on the free agent market. His ability combined with his playoff experience will make him a top target for most teams but the Twins could be an attractive choice given the Falvey connection and their contention window. Netting him would stabilize a rotation that will likely lose Jake Odorizzi in free agency but will have Berríos, Kenta Maeda, and Michael Pineda returning.

 

If Bauer is absolutely off the table for you, then you will likely have to settle for either one of the aforementioned second-tier starters or a Maeda-type through trade (maybe Syndergaard will be cheap coming off TJ surgery). You’d also be justified in using his on-field performance on top of his antics off the field as his reason for avoiding him. He has merely been a passable starter outside his monster 2018 campaign (his second lowest season ERA is 4.18). That number is much more in line with the Robbie Rays and Mike Minors of the world who will also be available and probably less sought after.

 

This will likely be the turmoil that both the fans and front office members face next offseason. The starting pitching need will still likely be obvious and they may not want to deal another top prospect like they did to acquire Maeda. Bauer will be the top free agent option available and signing him would, on paper, likely push them even further into being World Series contenders. Is that worth it?

 

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[David HK]

Yes.

[h2oface]

Am I the only one that expects a couple of bonafide starters as good or better than Bauer (it appears the 2018 is an outlier, no?) coming from our system, and surfacing this season or next? I mean, isn't it time that the "pitching expertise" lauded in the article starts to be performance of the pitchers developed, and not just talk in the Twin Cities? It happens all the time around MLB, and we salivate about it finally being farmed here. It's time. 

[TErick5]

The dude can pitch. As long as he isn’t throwing balls over the center field fence. It will also be better for him if he is on the same team as Kepler.

[Nine of twelve]

I don't think Falvine would or should target Trevor Bauer any more or any less than any other player. A good GM and his/her staff will continually evaluate players within and outside of the organization and will make a trade, a draft pick, or a free agent acquisition based on whether the transaction puts the franchise in a better position, especially at the major league level.

[Nine of twelve]

 

 It will also be better for him if he is on the same team as Kepler.

It would be similar to the Twins signing Clippard. The Twins hit him well last year even though he was quite good against the rest of the majors. Coming here might be good for Clippard or Bauer, but maybe not as good for the Twins.

[sorney]

 

Am I the only one that expects a couple of bonafide starters as good or better than Bauer (it appears the 2018 is an outlier, no?) coming from our system, and surfacing this season or next? I mean, isn't it time that the "pitching expertise" lauded in the article starts to be performance of the pitchers developed, and not just talk in the Twin Cities? It happens all the time around MLB, and we salivate about it finally being farmed here. It's time. 

2018 - Yup!  Feels like a huge outlier.  I'm not against acquiring him, but I sure wouldn't pay a hefty price for him.

[Cody Pirkl]

 

I don't think Falvine would or should target Trevor Bauer any more or any less than any other player. A good GM and his/her staff will continually evaluate players within and outside of the organization and will make a trade, a draft pick, or a free agent acquisition based on whether the transaction puts the franchise in a better position, especially at the major league level.

They already know him on a personal level and traded for him from the DBacks a few years ago. He's also likely the most analytically inclined pitcher in all of baseball which will almost certainly draw their attention. They're probably pretty confident that he can in fact put the franchise in a better position.

[Doctor Gast]

I think we should be open for any opportunity that may arise.  Bauer is much more worthy of a high draft pick through his skill & experience which he can share. I`d definitely not write him off. My dream is the Twins to have an ace factory pumping them out on a regular basis. We are not quite there yet, trading away high pitching prospects puts us further back. So going out & get a couple high end pitchers is not out the question if we want to win a WS now.

[Dantes929]

 

2018 - Yup!  Feels like a huge outlier.  I'm not against acquiring him, but I sure wouldn't pay a hefty price for him.

The price is going to seem very hefty because it is going to be a one year contract if Bauer holds true to his one year at a time goal.   I actually respect that and am ok with it as long as the premium he is paid for accepting a one year contract is based on his 2019 year rather than his 2018 year.

[Ebby Calvin Laloosh]

I don't think the issue is his politics, really. It's being a celebrity and Tweeting about it. It's just stupid, all it will bring is controversy and distraction. I don't really get Twitter, at all. If you want to argue with an idiot who doesn't listen, get a goldfish.

 

His politics aside, I don't think he's that good and you know whoever signs him will be paying for that outlier year in '18, just like Dantes said. I don't think he anything special as far as the analytics go either, he just puts out more Youtube videos than other pitchers.

[Minny505]

Trevor Bauer and Zack Greinke are my two favorite personalities in baseball today. 

 

Bauer has stated that he will only be taking one year deals in FA. If he sticks to that, he will likely cost $30mil or more, provided he gets back to even career numbers in 2020. That seems like a much more important discussion point and may price him out of the Twins budget.

 

He would not create a media circus in any way possible. This is not signing someone like Aroldis Chapman, AJ Hinch or, from other sports, Colin Kaepernick or Lebron James. From listening to current and former teammates of Bauer's talk on podcasts and YouTube with other MLBers, they absolutely love him...especially the pitchers. 

 

I mean, Mike Clevinger, who I'm going to guess is about as far to the other side of the political spectrum, based on his publicly stated values and philosophies, as you will find, calls Trevor Bauer his "best friend". 

That's the kind of player I want on my favorite team. If he can be had on a reasonable deal, hell yes, sign him up.

[howieramone2]

No. Much rather get a Maeda type for pie in the sky. Don't confuse free agency with Christmas.

[Platoon]

I would trade Max Kepler for him even up. Cleveland would find out that Max aint gonna hit 5 HR’s, or whatever it was, in a row off him anymore.  
 

 

 

 

 

 

Ps:  Please  don’t question my mental acuity on the Kepler trade, or anything else. That horse has left the paddock.

 

[Matt Braun]

Alright, I want to add one more comment. First, I want to apologize for being unclear on what I meant regarding the statement on his political statements. I did not mean to imply that being a Trump supporter was something I was concerned with. My intention was to use his comments about birtherism as an example of how clubhouse chemistry may be affected by his vocal personality. I found this to be important as clubhouse chemistry is a topic that the Twins have been greatly concerned with and the team was notoriously poor in that regards in 2018 thanks to a few sour grapes in Logan Morrison and Lance Lynn. That was the intention of my comment and I would like to apologize for not making that clear.

[DocBauer]

I'm not a big fan of Bauer, though I clearly don't know him, only because I've heard different whispers and innuendo that he's really not that nice of a guy. Then there are incidents like the launched ball. Now, maybe he's a swell guy and all his teammates have love him. I could care less about his politics or anything of that nature as long as he is good in the clubhouse and not disruptive in it or out of it affecting the team.

 

Period.

 

As a ballplayer, my one concern is his determination to only sign year to year deals. Does that work for the Twins? You get one year, hopefully a great one, but then you're back to bidding again or looking to fill. That is my concern.

[dex8425]

His breakdown video of Kepler hitting five HR's in a row off him is pretty good. 

[Darius]

On topic - getting Bauer would make this team significantly better. I still don’t trust this rotation much, and am not sold on Maeda being anything more than average to slightly above (if you honestly believe the Dodgers pulled him from the rotation to save a few million, I’m sorry, you’re wrong). This rotation will still be a massive issue come playoff time (if there is playoff time).

[Doctor Gast]

 

Thanks Matt for giving us an article about current baseball; not uniforms, what players do w/ their free time or etc (I was getting very bored).  Getting back to Bauer, I probably don`t like his music or agree w/ everything he says or the way he says it but that`s not important. Giving him the benefit of doubt that maybe he was distracted last year, he`s a great pitcher. Besides that he has a great analytic mind about pitching. Wes Johnson is great but he`s not a god, the Twins have a lot of young pitchers that need their skills honed & some a 3rd pitch. If Bauer can help them, he could be a key to that ace factory I`m dreaming about. I believe he`s motivated to be a Twin.

[Squirrel]

 

Alright, I want to add one more comment. First, I want to apologize for being unclear on what I meant regarding the statement on his political statements. I did not mean to imply that being a Trump supporter was something I was concerned with. My intention was to use his comments about birtherism as an example of how clubhouse chemistry may be affected by his vocal personality. I found this to be important as clubhouse chemistry is a topic that the Twins have been greatly concerned with and the team was notoriously poor in that regards in 2018 thanks to a few sour grapes in Logan Morrison and Lance Lynn. That was the intention of my comment and I would like to apologize for not making that clear.

 

MOD WARNING:

 

Matt has now cleared up what he meant ... could Bauer's off field activities be a detriment to clubhouse chemistry? That's it. That's the point of discussion. The debate isn't over the specifics of those activities and Matt didn't mention those specifics in the original article, I suspect, of the potential of turning this discussion to where it went. If you think those activities won't matter and how he pitches is all that does? Then fine, stick to that. If you think it does matter? Then fine, state that he wouldn't be a good fit in the clubhouse and why the clubhouse demeanor is important to the outcome of the performance on field. People went down this political discussion hole where it is not pertinent to this baseball discussion. Go to twitter if you want to argue over those specifics. My opinion on going to twitter is 'no thank you,' but to each his/her own. Stick to the baseball here on TD. Don't dredge up the specifics of a tangent and make them the topic.

 

Some posts have been hidden or edited in the process of getting things back on track. If this line continues, warning points will be issued.

[DocBauer]

On topic - getting Bauer would make this team significantly better. I still don’t trust this rotation much, and am not sold on Maeda being anything more than average to slightly above (if you honestly believe the Dodgers pulled him from the rotation to save a few million, I’m sorry, you’re wrong). This rotation will still be a massive issue come playoff time (if there is playoff time).

Just a couple points of clarification:

 

1] Unless I read it wrong, I think the original point was looking at Bauer as a FA target next year, in relation to how the FA situation has changed for the Twins. Hence my thought/question was his desire for 1yr contracts and does that fit for the Twins organization.

 

2] While the topic of the Dodgers holding down payroll has been brought up, considering the sure amount of $ on their books, and luxury tax implications not withstanding, I don't believe it's ever been confirmed that was their intent. Two items I have read from various outlets are:

 

A] Despite success and quality numbers, his second half numbers may have slipped, here or there at least, and with available depth on hand, they moved him late to the pen.

 

B] With available ST depth on hand, and questions about their bullpen depth, the Dodgers moved him to the pen for depth there in the stretch run and playoffs.

 

Considering his results in the pen, and his best season results against LH batters in 2019, and from the sources I've read, I subscribe to possibility B myself.

[Dantes929]

 

I'm not a big fan of Bauer, though I clearly don't know him, only because I've heard different whispers and innuendo that he's really not that nice of a guy. Then there are incidents like the launched ball. Now, maybe he's a swell guy and all his teammates have love him. I could care less about his politics or anything of that nature as long as he is good in the clubhouse and not disruptive in it or out of it affecting the team.

Period.

As a ballplayer, my one concern is his determination to only sign year to year deals. Does that work for the Twins? You get one year, hopefully a great one, but then you're back to bidding again or looking to fill. That is my concern.

And the big concern about signing any free agent to a long term deal is that they give us one good year and then get hurt or old or whatever.   As far as free agents pitchers go next year I would rather have Odorizzi back but I would rather have Bauer on a one year deal than Odo on a 5 year deal.   Of course depending on the numbers.

[adorduan]

Absolutely.  If he holds to going year by year as a free agent, he is ideal for mid market teams.  You don't get saddled paying for any more than 1 bad year at worst. As for the off field stuff, his team mates won't care if he produces on the field.

[In My La Z boy]

Seems Falvey has answered this query by signing Donaldson. I was in favor of signing him, so I would also be in favor of Bauer.