Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Learning From Past Mistakes

[Matt Braun]

The system of player development in baseball makes replenishing the talent at the major league level a tough science to nail down. Unlike the NFL where draft picks can become stars immediately, MLB essentially requires a few years of minor league time to fully season a prospect. This creates an interesting dynamic where teams may deal major league players in preparation for their highly-touted prospects. The Twins did exactly this a few years back and are now in a similar position.The year was 2012 and the Twins were in the middle of their stretch of uninspired baseball. But there was good news! They had just taken Byron Buxton with the second overall pick that year. With him, Oswaldo Arcia, and a fresh-faced Aaron Hicks on the horizon, the team saw their opportunity to deal both Ben Revere and Denard Span in the 2012 offseason.

 

Between Span and Revere, their trade returns netted Alex Meyer, Vance Worley, and Trevor May. Meyer had 95 1/3 innings pitched in MLB (most not with the Twins) and subsequently retired before he hit 30. Worley made 10 terrible starts for the Twins and was shipped off to Pittsburgh for a bag of baseballs. May at least is still on the team and is currently one of the better relievers. Also, to Meyer’s credit, he allowed the Twins to also drop Ricky Nolasco onto the Angels for Alan Busenitz and Héctor Santiago.

 

It’s unfair to call these trades disasters, but it’s tough to see any of them as anything but disappointing. Span was still a solid player (though he would have been wasted on the Twins at the time) and the players they nabbed in return all should have been quality pitchers for the Twins for years to come. Only May proved to have any staying power on the team.

 

But there’s still one more topic to cover. You know exactly what is coming. Remember in 2015 when Aaron Hicks finally put together a decent season in MLB and was immediately dealt to the, shudders, Yankees? At least Jon Ryan Murphy, the player they received in return, put up a wRC+ of 4 for the Twins. Yes, that is typed out correctly. A wRC+ of 4.

 

It’s awfully mean to bring up these trades and players for no reason. You, the good reader, were likely either just starting a fine day or getting ready to go to bed following said fine day and didn’t need these memories to be brought up again. There is a point behind all of this.

 

The Twins saw the young prospects they had at the time (Hicks and Arcia) and dealt their established major league talent (Revere and Span) to make room for these players. Arcia was DFA’d a few years after making his debut and Hicks continued the cycle by being traded to make room for Buxton and Max Kepler. Fortunately, both of those players have proved themselves at the major league level.

 

The Twins are now in a very similar situation to where they were in 2012. Both Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff are knocking on the door of the majors and there has been much speculation regarding how the team can make room for them.

 

The situation is slightly different in the fact that the Twins now are much better than the Twins in 2012 and their system of development has been overhauled. They don’t have quite the same shoot-yourself-in-the-foot ability that those teams had. Yet, knowing that trading players to make room for prospects failed just a few years ago should make the Twins halt if they plan to do the same thing soon.

 

Prospects are nice but should never be taken as guarantees. As long as the possibility of a player not succeeding at the major league level exists, then it would be wiser for the team to go with the sure thing in an already capable major league player. The Twins should stay put with their outfield and wait for Kirilloff and/or Larnach to prove themselves at the major league level before handing them playing time.

 

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[Otwins]

Twins are in a great position in the outfield. I would not be aftaid to trade nor in a hurry to do so. Just because prior front offices failed trading players that should not affect the current front office's thinking. 

[Wookiee of the Year]

The factor that keeps me comfortable with a trade of, say, Rosario to make room for one of these guys is Jake Cave. If you toss Kirilloff out there and he falls on his face, Cave is a solid Plan B. That was the big problem with handing Hicks the job in centerfield; there was no competition and no back-up plan.

 

When trading an established major leaguer to make room for a prospect, it's absolutely worth asking, "What's our plan if this guy can't make the jump?" But I'm convinced the Twins have a much better answer to that question now than they did in 2013.

[Trov]

First, as pointed out the Twins were in a very different position in 2012 than they are now.  They were not on the verge of winning, but clearly the cubbord was bare, thanks to Smith win now moves.  We had talent in low levels but still a couple years away, and hardly any pitching at any level.  So the trades made, although not really paid off and better ones could have been made, were not all that bad under the situation.  The writing was on the wall and the Twins needed to reload the system, and as pointed out Span would be wasted, so why not get value for him than let him toil away losing value, because it would have got us maybe an extra couple wins?  Revere was who he was, a good defender overall, with no arm and good contact hitter but no power.  He never really grew beyond that and much like Span would not have added much during those years.

 

Now, if Twins just trade a guy because others have promise would be ill advised, I would agree.  However, past trades should never affect how one makes decisions in the future.  If you believe in your prospects and believe they are the better player, trade the MLB player for something of need and play the prospect.  If you are not sold on them and the MLB player will add more wins to the total keep them, it is that simple.  

 

The line "The Twins should stay put with their outfield and wait for Kirilloff and/or Larnach to prove themselves at the major league level before handing them playing time." is a logical contradiction.  The only way either can prove themselves at the MLB level is if you do not stay put with who you have.  Unless you assume injury, but that is still not staying put.  So assume no injury then only way someone gets playing time is if you do not give it to who you have now, which would mean they will never get to prove themselves because you will never give them the chance because you will be staying put until they can prove themselves, which can never be done.  Ugh my mind hurts thinking the circles of arguments that drives this.

 

However, the point to just trade someone because you believe you have an unproven replacement when you are in win now mode does hold water.  However, to compare the Twins now to back in 2012 is also flawed as they were not in win now mode.  

[Shaitan]

As the "all '80s threads" show, it's possible to be very successful by trading established players. There is no perfect plan; rather every situation is different.

 

That said, I would personally would not trade an established starter to make way for a player in AA unless they are a Joe Mauer-level prospect. But there are variables (injury histories, budget, personality, etc).

[Cody Pirkl]

I think the only real established talent the Twins are in danger of getting rid of for Larnach or Kiriloff is Rosario. The situation is a little bit different because of Eddie's skillset that may not age well and his contract situation where they'd probably rather get something for him than let him walk which they'd probably do.

 

I also think that if they do dump Rosario one way or another and can't get one competent player to replace him for a few years out of Cave, Wade, Rooker, Kirilloff and Larnach, that's just an enormous L no matter how you look at it.

[Sielk]

I think the shortened (hopefully not canceled) season has made it far less likely that Rosario is traded. If the season had taken place as usual we might have had an opportunity to see Larnach and Kirilloff at major league level and could have gotten a fair impression of how they're coping. But now...

 

As high as the hopes are for these two, I really do not like the idea of trading a good major leaguer like Rosario and depending on two well regarded but untested prospects in the middle of contention. As for Jake Cave, he is good as a fourth outfielder but he is also not what I would like in the regular lineup as long as the Twins compete for the World Series.

 

At the same time the Twins don't need to do an immediate trade to get a look at the prospects. As much as we would like to see our regulars play in 150 games there will always be injuries etc. and thus a lot of playing time available. Let the prospects have it. If one of them starts hitting .300 with a bunch of bombas you can still make a trade.

[Doctor Gast]

This year Rosario is in the spot light, hopefully he`ll be totally healthy, his defense & plate discipline will approve. But no matter how Rosario performs either Kirilloff, Larnach or Rooker will need prove that they can play an adequate LF as well as consistently hit MLB well, if they can do that Rosario is gone

[DocBauer]

There are those prospects, like Mauer for instance, where everyone just KNOWS the guy is special and going to be good. And for those guys, you usually just make room for them when needed. But it seems to me, even for top prospects, often the best course of action often turns out to be a cautious approach. In more specific terms, guys get their shot organically. Think of Arraez coming up last year due to injury. They may or may not stick immediately for a variety of reasons; less than spectacular first step, injured player is now healthy, etc. Now, if you are a winning ballclub vs a rebuilding one, your course of action is probably different. If you're the current Detroit or Baltimore franchises, for example, you probably just promote and live with bumps in the road and growing pains.

 

One of the DUMBEST things MLB has done recently is change the September expanded roster. Why did they do this? Apparently out of some misguided idea that there would be "throwaway games" in September where lesser teams play mostly prospects instead of established MLers in order to tank and possibly skew tight division and WC races. I ask you, if a contending team is playing a cellar dweller in September, would said cellar dwelling team really provide less of a competitive game that would make any difference? In fact, it could have the opposite effect as auditioning prospects could provide a spark.

 

It's a ridiculous change. Competing and non-competing teams have always used September to audition players get them their first ML experience, even rest veteran players for the stretch run and the playoffs. This rule change could easily have a negative effect on all clubs and the integrity of the game by restricting development of young players.

 

The obvious point of this entire OP, as it pertains to the current Twins, is in regard to Rosario and Kirilloff and Larnach. We could also include Rooker in the conversation. Forgetting the entire "will there be or not be a milb season" scenario for a moment, the ideal situation is for September play, promotion due to injury, and then make moves as necessary when the prospect(s) themselves force the situation.